NBER Working Papers

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27927: Capital Flows in Risky Times: Risk-on/Risk-off and Emerging Market Tail Risk

Anusha Chari, Karlye Dilts Stedman and Christian Lundblad

27926: Dominant Currencies: How Firms Choose Currency Invoicing and Why it Matters

Mary Amiti, Oleg Itskhoki and Jozef Konings

27925: Human Capital Depreciation and Returns to Experience

Michael Dinerstein, Rigissa Megalokonomou and Constantine Yannelis

27924: Temporary Unemployment and Labor Market Dynamics During the COVID-19 Recession

Jessica Gallant, Kory Kroft, Fabian Lange and Matthew Notowidigdo

27923: Optimal Foreign Reserves and Central Bank Policy Under Financial Stress

Luis Cespedes and Roberto Chang

27922: The Rise of Income and Wealth Inequality in America: Evidence from Distributional Macroeconomic Accounts

Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman

27921: Trends in US Income and Wealth Inequality: Revising After the Revisionists

Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman

27920: Anxiety or Pain? The Impact of Tariffs and Uncertainty on Chinese Firms in the Trade War

Felipe Benguria, Jaerim Choi, Deborah Swenson and Mingzhi (Jimmy) Xu

27919: The Rise and Fall of Import Substitution

Douglas Irwin

27918: Ethnographic and Field Data in Historical Economics

Sara Lowes

27917: The Micro Anatomy of Macro Consumption Adjustments

Rafael Guntin, Pablo Ottonello and Diego Perez

27916: Research Funding and Collaboration

Benjamin Davies, Jason Gush, Shaun C. Hendy and Adam Jaffe

27915: Firm-Embedded Productivity and Cross-Country Income Differences

Vanessa Alviarez, Javier Cravino and Natalia Ramondo

27914: The Domestic Political-Economy of the WTO Crisis: Lessons for Preserving Multilateralism

T. Renee Bowen and J. Lawrence Broz

27913: Introducing CogX: A New Preschool Education Program Combining Parent and Child Interventions

Roland Fryer, Steven Levitt, John List and Anya Samek

27912: Liquidity Requirements, Free-Riding, and the Implications for Financial Stability Evidence from the early 1900s

Mark Carlson and Matthew Jaremski

27911: Covid-19 and the U.S. Safety Net

Robert Moffitt and James Ziliak

27910: Firm Input Choice Under Trade Policy Uncertainty

Kyle Handley, Nuno Limão, Rodney Ludema and Zhi Yu

27909: The World War II Crisis Innovation Model: What Was It, and Where Does It Apply?

Daniel Gross and Bhaven Sampat

27908: Who Should Work from Home during a Pandemic? The Wage-Infection Trade-off

Sangmin Aum, Sang Yoon (Tim) Lee and Yongseok Shin

27907: Flight to Safety: How Economic Downturns Affect Talent Flows to Startups

Shai Bernstein, Richard R. Townsend and Ting Xu

27906: A Helicopter Tour of Some Underlying Issues In Empirical Industrial Organization

Ariel Pakes

27905: Trade with Nominal Rigidities: Understanding the Unemployment and Welfare Effects of the China Shock

Andres Rodriguez-Clare, Mauricio Ulate and Jose Vasquez

27904: Distance, Empire, and British Exports Over Two Centuries

David Jacks, Kevin O'Rourke, Alan Taylor and Yoto Yotov

27903: Emerging Markets Sovereign CDS Spreads During COVID-19: Economics versus Epidemiology News

Timo Daehler, Joshua Aizenman and Yothin Jinjarak

27902: Public Policy and Participation in Political Interest Groups: An Analysis of Minimum Wages, Labor Unions, and Effective Advocacy

Jeffrey Clemens and Michael Strain

27901: Global Financial Cycle and Liquidity Management

Olivier Jeanne and Damiano Sandri

27900: Deterrence Effects of Antifraud and Abuse Enforcement in Health Care

David H. Howard and Ian McCarthy

27899: Wealth Transfers and Net Wealth at Death: Evidence from the Italian Inheritance Tax Records 1995–2016

Paolo Acciari and Salvatore Morelli

27898: Monetary Policy Cooperation/Coordination and Global Financial Crises in Historical Perspective

Michael Bordo

27897: Digital Messaging to Improve College Enrollment and Success

Christopher Avery, Ben Castleman, Michael Hurwitz, Bridget Long and Lindsay C. Page

27896: Measuring the Effects of Firm Uncertainty on Economic Activity: New Evidence from One Million Documents

Kyle Handley and J. Frank Li

27895: Discovering Treatment Effectiveness via Median Treatment Effects—Applications to COVID-19 Clinical Trials

John Mullahy

27894: Flexible Wages, Bargaining, and the Gender Gap

Barbara Biasi and Heather Sarsons

27893: Concessions, Violence, and Indirect Rule: Evidence from the Congo Free State

Sara Lowes and Eduardo Montero

27892: The Global Factor Structure of Exchange Rates

Sofonias Korsaye, Fabio Trojani and Andrea Vedolin

27891: Face Masks, Public Policies and Slowing the Spread of COVID-19: Evidence from Canada

Alexander Karaivanov, Shih En Lu, Hitoshi Shigeoka, Cong Chen and Stephanie Pamplona

27890: Rules vs. Discretion: Treatment of Mental Illness in U.S. Adolescents

Emily Cuddy and Janet Currie

27889: Private Equity and COVID-19

Paul Gompers, Steven N. Kaplan and Vladimir Mukharlyamov

27888: Calculating DAF Payout and What We Learn When We Do It Correctly

James Andreoni and Ray Madoff

27887: When Information is Not Enough: Evidence from a Centralized School Choice System

Kehinde Ajayi, Willa Friedman and Adrienne Lucas

27886: The Unemployed With Jobs and Without Jobs

Robert Hall and Marianna Kudlyak

27885: State Investment in Higher Education: Effects on Human Capital Formation, Student Debt, and Long-term Financial Outcomes of Students

Rajashri Chakrabarti, Nicole Gorton and Michael Lovenheim

27884: The Effects of Government Licensing on E-commerce: Evidence from Alibaba

Ginger Zhe Jin, Zhentong Lu, Xiaolu Zhou and Chunxiao Li

27883: Renegotiation in Debt Chains

Vincent Glode and Christian Opp

27882: A Cost/Benefit Analysis of Clinical Trial Designs for COVID-19 Vaccine Candidates

Donald A. Berry, Scott Berry, Peter Hale, Leah Isakov, Andrew Lo, Kien Wei Siah and Chi Heem Wong

27881: The Distribution of COVID-19 Related Risks

Patrick Baylis, Pierre-Loup Beauregard, Marie Connolly, Nicole Fortin, David Green, Pablo Gutierrez Cubillos, Sam Gyetvay, Catherine Haeck, Timea Laura Molnar, Gaëlle Simard-Duplain, Henry Siu, Maria teNyenhuis and Casey Warman

27880: Incentivizing Negative Emissions Through Carbon Shares

Derek Lemoine

27879: Using Satellite Imagery to Understand and Promote Sustainable Development

Marshall Burke, Anne Driscoll, David Lobell and Stefano Ermon

27878: A Toolkit for Solving Models with a Lower Bound on Interest Rates of Stochastic Duration

Gauti Eggertsson, Sergey Egiev, Alessandro Lin, Josef Platzer and Luca Riva

27877: SME Failures Under Large Liquidity Shocks: An Application to the COVID-19 Crisis

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Veronika Penciakova and Nick Sander

27876: Modeling the Consumption Response to the CARES Act

Christopher Carroll, Edmund Crawley, Jiri Slacalek and Matthew White

27875: Nudging Timely Wage Reporting: Field Experimental Evidence from the United States Social Supplementary Income Program

C. Yiwei Zhang, Jeffrey Hemmeter, Judd B. Kessler, Robert Metcalfe and Robert Weathers

27874: Opening the Door: Immigrant Legalization and Family Reunification in the United States

Elizabeth Cascio and Ethan Lewis

27873: The International Propagation of Economic Downturns Through Multinational Companies: The Real Economy Channel

Jan Bena, Serdar Dinc and Isil Erel

27872: A Theory of Foreign Exchange Interventions

Sebastian Fanelli and Ludwig Straub

27871: Impediments to the Schumpeterian Process in the Replacement of Large Firms

Mara Faccio and John J. McConnell

27870: Long-run Returns to Private Equity in Emerging Markets

Shawn Cole, Martin Melecký, Florian Mölders and Tristan Reed

27869: Is the Selfish Life-Cycle Model More Applicable in Japan and, If So, Why? A Literature Survey

Charles Horioka

27868: Health Insurance Menu Design for Large Employers

Kate Ho and Robin Lee

27867: Firm-Level Risk Exposures and Stock Returns in the Wake of COVID-19

Steven Davis, Stephen Hansen and Cristhian Seminario-Amez

27866: The Wisdom of the Robinhood Crowd

Ivo Welch

27865: COVID-19 Changed Tastes for Safety-Net Programs

Alex Rees-Jones, John D'Attoma, Amedeo Piolatto and Luca Salvadori

27864: Cross-Sectional Uncertainty and the Business Cycle: Evidence from 40 Years of Options Data

Ian Dew-Becker and Stefano Giglio

27863: A Calculation of the Social Returns to Innovation

Benjamin Jones and Lawrence Summers

27862: Tapping into Talent: Coupling Education and Innovation Policies for Economic Growth

Ufuk Akcigit, Jeremy Pearce and Marta Prato

27861: Does Fiscal Policy Matter for Stock-Bond Return Correlation?

Xuenan Li, Tao Zha, Ji Zhang and Hao Zhou

27860: Behavioral Biases are Temporally Stable

Victor Stango and Jonathan Zinman

27859: A Return Based Measure of Firm Quality

Ravi Jagannathan and Yang Zhang

27858: The Aggregate Demand for Bank Capital

Milton Harris, Christian Opp and Marcus Opp

27857: Worker Empowerment and Subjective Evaluation: On Building an Effective Conflict Culture

W. Bentley Macleod, Victoria Valle Lara and Christian Zehnder

27856: Why Does the Fed Move Markets so Much? A Model of Monetary Policy and Time-Varying Risk Aversion

Carolin Pflueger and Gianluca Rinaldi

27855: A Counterfactual Economic Analysis of Covid-19 Using a Threshold Augmented Multi-Country Model

Alexander Chudik, Kamiar Mohaddes, Mohammad Pesaran, Mehdi Raissi and Alessandro Rebucci

27854: War, Socialism and the Rise of Fascism: An Empirical Exploration

Daron Acemoglu, Giuseppe De Feo, Giacomo De Luca and Gianluca Russo

27853: What Is CEO Overconfidence? Evidence from Executive Assessments

Steven N. Kaplan, Morten Sorensen and Anastasia Zakolyukina

27852: Institutional Change and Institutional Persistence

Daron Acemoglu, Georgy Egorov and Konstantin Sonin

27851: Crisis Innovation

Tania Babina, Asaf Bernstein and Filippo Mezzanotti

27850: History and Urban Economics

W Hanlon and Stephan Heblich

27849: Fifty Shades of QE: Comparing Findings of Central Bankers and Academics

Brian Fabo, Martina Jančoková, Elisabeth Kempf and Lubos Pastor

27848: A Satellite Account for Health in the United States

David Cutler, Kaushik Ghosh, Kassandra Messer, Trivellore Raghunathan, Allison B. Rosen and Susan T. Stewart

27847: The Economics of Currency Risk

Tarek Hassan and Tony Zhang

27846: Crimes Against Morality: Unintended Consequences of Criminalizing Sex Work

Lisa Cameron, Jennifer Seager and Manisha Shah

27845: Non-Random Exposure to Exogenous Shocks: Theory and Applications

Kirill Borusyak and Peter Hull

27844: Uncertainty, Long-Run, and Monetary Policy Risks in a Two-Country Macro Model

Kimberly Berg and Nelson Mark

27843: Man vs. Machine Learning: The Term Structure of Earnings Expectations and Conditional Biases

Jules van Binsbergen, Xiao Han and Alejandro Lopez-Lira

27842: Choice in Insurance Markets: A Pigouvian Approach to Social Insurance Design

Nathaniel Hendren, Camille Landais and Johannes Spinnewijn

27841: Pandemics Through the Lens of Occupations

Anand Chopra, Michael Devereux and Amartya Lahiri

27840: Globalization and Pandemics

Pol Antras, Stephen Redding and Esteban Rossi-Hansberg

27839: Measuring Property Rights Institutions

Simeon Djankov, Edward Glaeser, Valeria Perotti and Andrei Shleifer

27838: Child Skill Production: Accounting for Parental and Market-Based Time and Goods Investments

Elizabeth Caucutt, Lance Lochner, Joseph Mullins and Youngmin Park

27837: On the Equilibrium Properties of Network Models with Heterogeneous Agents

Treb Allen, Costas Arkolakis and Xiangliang Li

27836: Average Inflation Targeting and Household Expectations

Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Edward Knotek and Raphael Schoenle

27835: Inequality of Opportunity for Income in Denmark and the United States: A Comparison Based on Administrative Data

Pablo Mitnik, Anne-Line Helsø and Victoria L. Bryant

27834: Marginal Effects of Merit Aid for Low-Income Students

Joshua Angrist, David Autor and Amanda Pallais

27833: The Effects of COVID-19 on U.S. Small Businesses: Evidence from Owners, Managers, and Employees

Georgij Alekseev, Safaa Amer, Manasa Gopal, Theresa Kuchler, Schneider Jw, Johannes Stroebel and Nils C. Wernerfelt

27832: Gangs, Labor Mobility and Development

Nikita Melnikov, Carlos Schmidt-Padilla and Maria Micaela Sviatschi

27831: On Public Spending and Economic Unions

Fernando Broner, Alberto Martin and Jaume Ventura

27830: The Intergenerational Effects of the Vietnam Draft on Risky Behaviors

Monica Deza and Alvaro Mezza

27829: Pandemics, Vaccines and an Earnings Damage Function

Harrison Hong, Jeffrey D. Kubik, Neng Wang, Xiao Xu and Jinqiang Yang

27828: Fencing off Silicon Valley: Cross-Border Venture Capital and Technology Spillovers

Ufuk Akcigit, Sina T. Ates, Josh Lerner, Richard R. Townsend and Yulia Zhestkova