NBER Working Papers

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13409: Determinacy and Identification with Taylor Rules

John Cochrane

13408: The Effects of Mandatory Seatbelt Laws on Seatbelt Use, Motor Vehicle Fatalities, and Crash-Related Injuries among Youths

Christopher Carpenter and Mark Stehr

13407: Consequences of Eliminating Federal Disability Benefits for Substance Abusers

Pinka Chatterji and Ellen Meara

13406: Aggregate Demand and Supply

Roger Farmer

13405: Why Has the U.S. Financial Sector Grown so Much? The Role of Corporate Finance

Thomas Philippon

13404: Factor Analysis in a Model with Rational Expectations

Andreas Beyer, Roger Farmer, Jerome Henry and Massimiliano Marcellino

13403: The Baring Crisis and the Great Latin American Meltdown of the 1890s

Kris James Mitchener and Marc Weidenmier

13402: The Power of the Pill for the Next Generation

Elizabeth Oltmans Ananat and Daniel Hungerman

13401: Equilibrium Portfolio Strategies in the Presence of Sentiment Risk and Excess Volatility

Bernard Dumas, Alexander Kurshev and Raman Uppal

13400: Aid Volatility and Poverty Traps

Pierre-Richard Agénor and Joshua Aizenman

13399: Consolidation of Banks in Japan: Causes and Consequences

Kaoru Hosono, Koji Sakai and Kotaro Tsuru

13398: On the Optimal Choice of a Monetary Policy Instrument

Andrew Atkeson, Varadarajan Chari and Patrick Kehoe

13397: Comparing Greenbook and Reduced Form Forecasts using a Large Realtime Dataset

Jon Faust and Jonathan Wright

13396: "Conditional scholarships" for HIV/AIDS Health Workers: Educating and Retaining the Workforce to Provide Antiretroviral Treatment in Sub-Saharan Africa

Till Bärnighausen and David Bloom

13395: Realizing the Gains From Trade: Export Crops, Marketing Costs, and Poverty

Jorge Balat, Irene Brambilla and Guido Porto

13394: An Empirical Investigation of Labor Income Processes

Fatih Guvenen

13393: The Breakup of the Euro Area

Barry Eichengreen

13392: Conspicuous Consumption and Race

Kerwin Kofi Charles, Erik Hurst and Nikolai Roussanov

13391: Leadership in Groups: A Monetary Policy Experiment

Alan Blinder and John Morgan

13390: Capital Taxation and Ownership when Markets are Incomplete

Emmanuel Farhi

13389: Task Specialization, Comparative Advantages, and the Effects of Immigration on Wages

Giovanni Peri and Chad Sparber

13388: Current Account Adjustment: Some New Theory and Evidence

Jiandong Ju and Shang-Jin Wei

13387: Understanding Trust

Paola Sapienza, Anna Toldra and Luigi Zingales

13386: Teen Smoking and Birth Outcomes

MaryBeth Walker, Erdal Tekin and Sally Wallace

13385: The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks

Nicholas Bloom

13384: Long-Term Effects Of The 1959-1961 China Famine: Mainland China and Hong Kong

Douglas Almond, Lena Edlund, Hongbin Li and Junsen Zhang

13383: A Tax on Work for the Elderly: Medicare as a Secondary Payer

Gopi Goda, John B. Shoven and Sita Slavov

13382: Social Security and the Timing of Divorce

Gopi Goda, John B. Shoven and Sita Slavov

13381: The Changing Landscape of Pensions in the United States

James Poterba, Steven Venti and David Wise

13380: Going Off Parole: How the Elimination of Discretionary Prison Release Affects the Social Cost of Crime

Ilyana Kuziemko

13379: Imperfect Knowledge of Pension Plan Type

Alan Gustman, Thomas Steinmeier and Nahid Tabatabai

13378: Partisan Bias in Economic News: Evidence on the Agenda-Setting Behavior of U.S. Newspapers

Valentino Larcinese, Riccardo Puglisi and James Snyder

13377: Artists and the Market: From Leonardo and Titian to Andy Warhol and Damien Hirst

David Galenson

13376: Please Pass the Catch-up The Relative Performance of Chinese and Foreign Firms in Chinese Exports

Bruce Blonigen and Alyson Ma

13375: Time-Inconsistency and Welfare Program Participation: Evidence from the NLSY

Hanming Fang and Dan Silverman

13374: The Effect of Alcohol Consumption on Mortality: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from the Minimum Drinking Age

Christopher Carpenter and Carlos Dobkin

13373: Culture as Learning: The Evolution of Female Labor Force Participation over a Century

Raquel Fernandez

13372: A Calibratable Model of Optimal CEO Incentives in Market Equilibrium

Alex Edmans, Xavier Gabaix and Augustin Landier

13371: Dynamic Inefficiencies in Employment-Based Health Insurance System Theory and Evidence

Hanming Fang and Alessandro Gavazza

13370: Conversations Among Competitors

Jeremy Stein

13369: The Role of Religious and Social Organizations in the Lives of Disadvantaged Youth

Rajeev Dehejia, Thomas DeLeire, Erzo Luttmer and Joshua Mitchell

13368: The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Shocks: Why are the 2000s So Different from the 1970s?

Olivier Blanchard and Jordi Galí

13367: The Long-Term Effects of Africa's Slave Trades

Nathan Nunn

13366: Information Immobility and the Home Bias Puzzle

Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh and Laura Veldkamp

13365: Labor Market Rigidities, Trade and Unemployment

Elhanan Helpman and Oleg Itskhoki

13364: East Asia and Global Imbalances: Saving, Investment, and Financial Development

Hiro Ito and Menzie Chinn

13363: Accounting for the Rise in Consumer Bankruptcies

Igor Livshits, James (Jim) MacGee and Michele Tertilt

13362: Nonseparable Preferences and Optimal Social Security Systems

Borys Grochulski and Narayana Kocherlakota

13361: Mortgage Timing

Ralph Koijen, Otto Van Hemert and Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

13360: The Relative Performance of Real Estate Marketing Platforms: MLS versus FSBOMadison.com

Igal Hendel, Aviv Nevo and Francois Ortalo-Magne

13359: Evaluating The Effectiveness of Terrorism Risk Financing Solutions

Howard C. Kunreuther and Erwann Michel-Kerjan

13358: Prescription Drug Coverage and Elderly Medicare Spending

Baoping Shang and Dana Goldman

13357: Empirical Asset Pricing and Statistical Power in the Presence of Weak Risk Factors

Craig Burnside

13356: Do Teacher Absences Impact Student Achievement? Longitudinal Evidence from One Urban School District

Raegen T. Miller, Richard Murnane and John B. Willett

13355: Detecting Illegal Arms Trade

Stefano DellaVigna and Eliana La Ferrara

13354: Optimal Capital Income Taxation

Andrew Abel

13353: Investment Cycles and Sovereign Debt Overhang

Mark Aguiar, Manuel Amador and Gita Gopinath

13352: The Impact of Employer Matching on Savings Plan Participation under Automatic Enrollment

John Beshears, James Choi, David Laibson and Brigitte Madrian

13351: The Evolution of Inequality in Productivity and Wages: Panel Data Evidence

Giulia Faggio, Kjell G Salvanes and John van Reenen

13350: Contracting for Government Services: Theory and Evidence from U.S. Cities

Jonathan Levin and Steven Tadelis

13349: China's WTO Entry: Antidumping, Safeguards, and Dispute Settlement

Chad Bown

13348: Diversity and Crowd-out: A Theory of Cold-Glow Giving

Daniel Hungerman

13347: Chernobyl's Subclinical Legacy: Prenatal Exposure to Radioactive Fallout and School Outcomes in Sweden

Douglas Almond, Lena Edlund and Mårten Palme

13346: China's Experience Under the Multifiber Arrangement (MFA) and the Agreement on Textiles and Clothing (ATC)

Irene Brambilla, Amit Khandelwal and Peter Schott

13345: Uncovering the American Dream: Inequality and Mobility in Social Security Earnings Data since 1937

Wojciech Kopczuk, Emmanuel Saez and Jae Song

13344: Returns to Apprenticeship Training in Austria: Evidence from Failed Firms

Josef Fersterer, Jorn-Steffen Pischke and Rudolf Winter-Ebmer

13343: The Wrong Side(s) of the Tracks Estimating the Causal Effects of Racial Segregation on City Outcomes

Elizabeth Oltmans Ananat

13342: Evidence about the Potential Role for Affirmative Action in Higher Education

Braz Camargo, Todd Stinebrickner and Ralph Stinebrickner

13341: The Causal Effect of Studying on Academic Performance

Todd Stinebrickner and Ralph Stinebrickner

13340: The Effect of Credit Constraints on the College Drop-Out Decision A Direct Approach Using a New Panel Study

Todd Stinebrickner and Ralph Stinebrickner

13339: Why Tie A Product Consumers Do Not Use?

Dennis Carlton, Joshua Gans and Michael Waldman

13338: Is Distance Dying at Last? Falling Home Bias in Fixed Effects Models of Patent Citations

Rachel Griffith, Sokbae (Simon) Lee and John van Reenen

13337: Imputing Risk Tolerance from Survey Responses

Miles Kimball, Claudia Sahm and Matthew Shapiro

13336: Small Family, Smart Family? Family Size and the IQ Scores of Young Men

Sandra Black, Paul Devereux and Kjell G Salvanes

13335: The Curious Dawn of American Public Schools

Sun Go and Peter Lindert

13334: Reevaluating the Modernization Hypothesis

Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, James Robinson and Pierre Yared

13333: The Value of Life Near its End and Terminal Care

Gary Becker, Kevin Murphy and Tomas Philipson

13332: Profit Sharing Between Governments and Multinationals in Natural Resource Extraction: Evidence From a Firm-Level Panel

Margaret McMillan and Andrew Waxman

13331: Industry Compensation and the Costs of Alternative Environmental Policy Instruments

Lans Bovenberg, Lawrence H. Goulder and Mark R. Jacobsen

13330: Salience and Taxation: Theory and Evidence

Raj Chetty, W. Looney and Kory Kroft

13329: Globalization and Monetary Control

Michael Woodford

13328: Explaining the Effects of Government Spending Shocks on Consumption and the Real Exchange Rate

Morten Ravn, Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe and Martín Uribe

13327: Are Franchises Bad Employers?

Peter Cappelli and Monika Hamori

13326: Innovation, firm dynamics, and international trade

Andrew Atkeson and Ariel Burstein

13325: How Important is Money in the Conduct of Monetary Policy?

Michael Woodford

13324: The height of US-born non-Hispanic children and adolescents ages 2-19, born 1942-2002 in the NHANES Samples

John Komlos and Ariane Breitfelder

13323: Race and Charitable Church Activity

Daniel Hungerman

13322: Close to You? Bias and Precision in Patent-Based Measures of Technological Proximity

Mary Benner and Joel Waldfogel

13321: Strategic Judicial Decision Making

Pablo Spiller and Rafael Gely

13320: Bubbles in Prices of Exhaustible Resources

Boyan Jovanovic

13319: To Segregate or to Integrate: Education Politics and Democracy

David de la Croix and Matthias Doepke

13318: Exchange Rate Models Are Not as Bad as You Think

Charles Engel, Nelson Mark and Kenneth West

13317: Income, Aging, Health and Wellbeing Around the World: Evidence from the Gallup World Poll

Angus Deaton

13316: Optimal Property Rights in Financial Contracting

Kenneth Ayotte and Patrick Bolton

13315: Investment during the Korean Financial Crisis: A Structural Econometric Analysis

Simon Gilchrist and Jae Sim

13314: Estimating Discount Functions with Consumption Choices over the Lifecycle

David Laibson, Sean Chanwook Lee, Peter Maxted, Andrea Repetto and Jeremy Tobacman

13313: Returns on FDI: Does the U.S. Really Do Better?

Barry Bosworth, Susan M. Collins and Gabriel Chodorow-Reich

13312: Adaptive Minimax-Regret Treatment Choice, With Application To Drug Approval

Charles Manski

13311: Escape from the City? The Role of Race, Income, and Local Public Goods in Post-War Suburbanization

Leah Boustan

13310: Coalition-Proof Trade and the Friedman Rule in the Lagos-Wright Model

Tai-wei Hu, John Kennan and Neil Wallace