NBER Working Papers

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12101: Phoenix Miracles in Emerging Markets: Recovering without Credit from Systemic Financial Crises

Guillermo Calvo, Alejandro Izquierdo and Ernesto Talvi

12100: A Dynamic Theory of Public Spending, Taxation and Debt

Marco Battaglini and Stephen Coate

12099: Political Conflict and Power-sharing in the Origins of Modern Colombia

Sebastián Mazzuca and James Robinson

12098: Testing Portfolio Efficiency with Conditioning Information

Wayne Ferson and Andrew F. Siegel

12097: Friend or Foe? A Natural Experiment of the Prisoner's Dilemma

John List

12096: The Impact of Antihypertensive Drugs on the Number and Risk of Death, Stroke and Myocardial Infarction in the United States

Genia Long, David Cutler, Ernst R. Berndt, Jimmy Royer, Andrée-Anne Fournier, Alicia Sasser and Pierre Cremieux

12095: Sticky Borders

Gita Gopinath and Roberto Rigobon

12094: Innovation, Competition and Welfare-Enhancing Monopoly

Michael Darby and Lynne Zucker

12093: Rent Preservation and the Persistence of Underdevelopment

Raghuram Rajan

12092: War in Iraq versus Containment

Steven Davis, Kevin Murphy and Robert Topel

12091: Trade, FDI, and the Organization of Firms

Elhanan Helpman

12090: Is There Hedge Fund Contagion?

Nicole M. Boyson, Christof W. Stahel and René Stulz

12089: Monetary and Fiscal Theories of the Price Level: The Irreconcilable Differences

Bennett McCallum and Edward Nelson

12088: Making it in America: Social Mobility in the Immigrant Population

George Borjas

12087: Financial Constraints, Asset Tangibility, and Corporate Investment

Heitor Almeida and Murillo Campello

12086: The Effects of Tort Reform on Medical Malpractice Insurers' Ultimate Losses

Patricia Born, W Viscusi and Tom Baker

12085: Immigration in High-Skill Labor Markets: The Impact of Foreign Students on the Earnings of Doctorates

George Borjas

12084: Agency-Based Asset Pricing

Gary Gorton and Ping He

12083: Prediction Markets in Theory and Practice

Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz

12082: Measuring Trends in Leisure: The Allocation of Time Over Five Decades

Mark Aguiar and Erik Hurst

12081: The Depressing Effect of Agricultural Institutions on the Prewar Japanese Economy

Fumio Hayashi and Edward Prescott

12080: Insurance and Incentives for Medical Innovation

Alan M. Garber, Charles Jones and Paul Romer

12079: Why Have Business Cycle Fluctuations Become Less Volatile?

Andres Arias, Gary Hansen and Lee Ohanian

12078: Racial Segregation and the Black-White Test Score Gap

David Card and Jesse Rothstein

12077: Post-Secondary Education and Increasing Wage Inequality

Thomas Lemieux

12076: Discretionary Policy and Multiple Equilibria

Robert King

12075: Asset Prices When Agents are Marked-to-Market

Gary Gorton, Ping He and Lixin Huang

12074: Are Prudential Supervision and Regulation Pillars of Financial Stability? Evidence from the Great Depression

Kris James Mitchener

12073: Partisan Impacts on the Economy: Evidence from Prediction Markets and Close Elections

Erik Snowberg, Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz

12072: Recent Chinese Buyout Activity and the Implications for Global Architecture

Agata Antkiewicz and John Whalley

12071: Employee Screening: Theory and Evidence

Fali Huang and Peter Cappelli

12070: Environmental Investment and Policy with Distortionary Taxes and Endogenous Growth

Don Fullerton and Seung-Rae Kim

12069: Looking Beyond TRIA: A Clinical Examination of Potential Terrorism Loss Sharing

Howard Kunreuther and Erwann Michel-Kerjan

12068: CEO Turnover and Relative Performance Evaluation

Dirk Jenter and Fadi Kanaan

12067: A Bound on Risk Aversion Using Labor Supply Elasticities

Raj Chetty

12066: Testing for Racial Differences in the Mental Ability of Young Children

Roland Fryer and Steven Levitt

12065: Inside the Black Box of Doctoral Education: What Program Characteristics Influence Doctoral Students' Attrition and Graduation Probabilities?

Ronald Ehrenberg, George Jakubson, Jeffrey Groen, Eric So and Joseph Price

12064: Program Design and Student Outcomes in Graduate Education

Jeffrey Groen, George Jakubson, Ronald Ehrenberg, Scott Condie and Albert Liu

12063: Putting Behavioral Economics to Work: Testing for Gift Exchange in Labor Markets Using Field Experiments

Uri Gneezy and John List

12062: Unhappiness after Hurricane Katrina

Miles Kimball, Helen Levy, Fumio Ohtake and Yoshiro Tsutsui

12061: Taxation

Louis Kaplow

12060: Five Open Questions About Prediction Markets

Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz

12059: The Making of an Investment Banker: Macroeconomic Shocks, Career Choice, and Lifetime Income

Paul Oyer

12058: The Most Important Works of Art of the Twentieth Century

David Galenson

12057: Some Answers to the Retirement-Consumption Puzzle

Michael Hurd and Susann Rohwedder

12056: Single Parenthood and Childhood Outcomes in the Mid-Nineteenth Century Urban South

Howard Bodenhorn

12055: Estimating and Testing Beta Pricing Models: Alternative Methods and their Performance in Simulations

Jay Shanken and Guofu Zhou

12054: The Economic Costs of the Iraq War: An Appraisal Three Years After the Beginning of the Conflict

Linda Bilmes and Joseph Stiglitz

12053: Competing Approaches to Forecasting Elections: Economic Models, Opinion Polling and Prediction Markets

Andrew Leigh and Justin Wolfers

12052: New Measures of Port Efficiency Using International Trade Data

Bruce Blonigen and Wesley Wilson

12051: Bidding for Incomplete Contracts: An Empirical Analysis

Patrick Bajari, Stephanie Houghton and Steven Tadelis

12050: A Framework for Assessing Corporate Governance Reform

Benjamin Hermalin and Michael Weisbach

12049: Who Adjusts and When? On the Political Economy of Reforms

Alberto Alesina, Silvia Ardagna and Francesco Trebbi

12048: State Age Protection Laws and the Age Discrimination in Employment Act

Joanna Lahey

12047: The Causes of Political Integration: An Application to School Districts

Nora Gordon and Brian Knight

12046: Why Did U.S. Market Hours Boom in the 1990s?

Ellen McGrattan and Edward Prescott

12045: Exports and Slow Economic Growth in the Lower South Region, 1720-1800

Peter C. Mancall, Joshua Rosenbloom and Thomas Weiss

12044: Offshore Financial Centers: Parasites or Symbionts?

Andrew Rose and Mark Spiegel

12043: Urban Poverty, School Attendance, and Adolescent Labor Force Attachment: Some Historical Evidence

Howard Bodenhorn

12042: Investment Under Uncertainty and Time-Inconsistent Preferences

Steven R. Grenadier and Neng Wang

12041: Sorting, Prices, and Social Preferences

Edward Lazear, Ulrike Malmendier and Roberto Weber

12040: How Do the Better Educated Do It? Socioeconomic Status and the Ability to Cope with Underlying Impairment

David Cutler, Mary Beth Landrum and Kate A. Stewart

12039: PublicationHarvester: An Open-Source Software Tool for Science Policy Research

Pierre Azoulay, Andrew Stellman and Joshua Graff Zivin

12038: Economic Transformation, Population Growth and the Long-Run World Income Distribution

Marcos Chamon and Michael Kremer

12037: Special Interest Groups and the Allocation of Public Funds

Monica Singhal

12036: Housing, Consumption, and Asset Pricing

Monika Piazzesi, Martin Schneider and Selale Tuzel

12035: Legal-Political Factors and the Historical Evolution of the Finance-Growth Link

Michael Bordo and Peter Rousseau

12034: And Now for Something Completely Different: The Versatility of Conceptual Innovators

David Galenson

12033: Optimal Tariffs: The Evidence

Christian Broda, Nuno Limão and David Weinstein

12032: Turbulent Firms, Turbulent Wages?

Diego Comin, Erica Groshen and Bess Rabin

12031: The Unequal Effects of Liberalization: Evidence from Dismantling the License Raj in India

Philippe Aghion, Robin Burgess, Stephen Redding and Fabrizio Zilibotti

12030: Down or Out: Assessing the Welfare Costs of Household Investment Mistakes

Laurent Calvet, John Campbell and Paolo Sodini

12029: Cost Should Be No Barrier: An Evaluation of the First Year of Harvard's Financial Aid Initiative

Christopher Avery, Caroline Hoxby, C. Kirabo Jackson, Kaitlin Burek, Glenn Pope and Mridula Raman

12028: Durable Goods and Conformity

Christopher House and Emre Ozdenoren

12027: The Effects of Entry on Incumbent Innovation and Productivity

Philippe Aghion, Richard Blundell, Rachel Griffith, Peter Howitt and Susanne Prantl

12026: The Dog That Did Not Bark: A Defense of Return Predictability

John Cochrane

12025: Geographic Spillover of Unionism

Thomas Holmes

12024: Pervasive Stickiness (Expanded Version)

N. Gregory Mankiw and Ricardo Reis

12023: India's Patterns of Development: What Happened, What Follows

Kalpana Kochhar, Utsav Kumar, Raghuram Rajan and Arvind Subramanian

12022: The Time Varying Volatility of Macroeconomic Fluctuations

Alejandro Justiniano and Giorgio Primiceri

12021: Does Television Rot Your Brain? New Evidence from the Coleman Study

Matthew Gentzkow and Jesse Shapiro

12020: Valuation in Over-the-Counter Markets

Darrell Duffie, Nicolae Garleanu and Lasse Pedersen

12019: Ugly Criminals

Naci Mocan and Erdal Tekin

12018: Bias Corrected Estimates of GED Returns

James Heckman and Paul LaFontaine

12017: Optimal Value and Growth Tilts in Long-Horizon Portfolios

Jakub W. Jurek and Luis Viceira

12016: Surplus Appropriation from R&D and Health Care Technology Assessment Procedures

Tomas Philipson and Anupam Jena

12015: Do Hot Hands Exist Among Hedge Fund Managers? An Empirical Evaluation

Ravi Jagannathan, Alexey Malakhov and Dmitry Novikov

12014: Optimal Market Timing

Xuenan Li, Dmitry Livdan and Lu Zhang

12013: Estimating Static Models of Strategic Interaction

Patrick Bajari, Han Hong, John Krainer and Denis Nekipelov

12012: State Casket Sales and Restrictions: A Pointless Undertaking?

Judith Chevalier and Fiona Scott Morton

12011: A Short Note on the Size of the Dot-Com Bubble

James DeLong and Konstantin Magin

12010: Piracy on the Silver Screen

Rafael Rob and Joel Waldfogel

12009: The Importance of Default Options for Retirement Savings Outcomes: Evidence from the United States

John Beshears, James Choi, David Laibson and Brigitte Madrian

12008: Perverse Incentives in the Medicare Prescription Drug Benefit

David McAdams and Michael Schwarz

12007: Trends in Intergenerational Income Mobility

Chul-In Lee and Gary Solon

12006: The Effects of Cognitive and Noncognitive Abilities on Labor Market Outcomes and Social Behavior

James Heckman, Jora Stixrud and Sergio Urzua

12005: Is Spanish-Only Schooling Responsible for the Puerto Rican Language Gap?

Joshua Angrist, Aimee Chin and Ricardo Godoy

12004: Typically Unobserved Variables (TUVs) and Selection into Prenatal Inputs: Implications for Estimating Infant Health Production Functions

Nancy E. Reichman, Hope Corman, Kelly Noonan and Dhaval Dave

12003: Incarceration Length, Employment, and Earnings

Jeffrey Kling

12002: Time to Eat: Household Production Under Increasing Income Inequality

Daniel Hamermesh