NBER Working Papers

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30111: Near-Rational Equilibria in Heterogeneous-Agent Models: A Verification Method

Leonid Kogan and Indrajit Mitra

30110: Opioid Use and Employment Outcomes: Evidence from the U.S. Military

Abby E. Alpert, Steve Schwab and Benjamin Ukert

30109: Cutting Out the Middleman: The Structure of Chains of Intermediation

Matthew Grant and Meredith Startz

30108: Contamination Bias in Linear Regressions

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Peter Hull and Michal Kolesár

30107: Gender and Underrepresented Minority Differences in Research Funding

Laura Cruz-Castro, Donna Ginther and Luis Sanz-Menendez

30106: Days of Work Over a Half Century: The Rise of the Four-day Week

Daniel S. Hamermesh and Jeff Biddle

30105: The Effects of Advanced Degrees on the Wage Rates, Hours, Earnings and Job Satisfaction of Women and Men

Joseph Altonji, John Humphries and Ling Zhong

30104: Non-Covid Excess Deaths, 2020-21: Collateral Damage of Policy Choices?

Casey Mulligan and Robert D. Arnott

30103: Maternal Mortality and Women’s Political Power

Sonia Bhalotra, Damian Clarke, Joseph Gomes and Atheendar Venkataramani

30102: Microgiving with Digital Platforms

Xiheng Jiang, Jianwei Xing, Jintao Xu and Eric Zou

30101: Wealth of Two Nations: The U.S. Racial Wealth Gap, 1860-2020

Ellora Derenoncourt, Chi Hyun Kim, Moritz Kuhn and Moritz Schularick

30100: Gender Pay Gap across Cultures

Natasha Burns, Kristina Minnick, Jeffry Netter and Laura Starks

30099: Dividend Taxes, Firm Growth, and the Allocation of Capital

Adrien Matray

30098: Right-to-Work Laws, Unionization, and Wage Setting

Nicole Fortin, Thomas Lemieux and Neil Lloyd

30097: The Effects of Alcohol Excise Tax Increases by Drinking Level and by Income Level

Henry Saffer, Markus Gehrsitz and Michael Grossman

30096: Inflation Past, Present and Future: Fiscal Shocks, Fed Response, and Fiscal Limits

John Cochrane

30095: Individual Earnings and Family Income: Dynamics and Distribution

Joseph Altonji, Disa M. Hynsjö and Ivan Vidangos

30094: Expectations Data in Structural Microeconomic Models

Gizem Kosar and Cormac O'Dea

30093: Center Pivot Irrigation Systems as a Form of Drought Risk Mitigation in Humid Regions

Daniel J. Cooley and Steven M. Smith

30092: Internal Disagreement and Disruptive Technologies

Joshua Gans

30091: A Theory of Visionary Disruption

Joshua Gans

30090: The Effects of Public Housing on Children: Evidence from Colombia

Adriana Camacho, Valentina Duque, Michael Gilraine and Fabio Sanchez Torres

30089: The Rest of the World’s Dollar-Weighted Return on U.S. Treasurys

Zhengyang Jiang, Arvind Krishnamurthy and Hanno Lustig

30088: Grads on the Go: Measuring College-Specific Labor Markets for Graduates

Johnathan G. Conzelmann, Steven W. Hemelt, Brad Hershbein, Shawn M. Martin, Andrew Simon and Kevin M. Stange

30087: Who Holds Sovereign Debt and Why It Matters

Xiang Fang, Bryan Hardy and Karen Lewis

30086: Did the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Reduce Profit Shifting by US Multinational Companies?

Javier Garcia-Bernardo, Petr Janský and Gabriel Zucman

30085: New Schools and New Classmates: The Disruption and Peer Group Effects of School Reassignment

Darryl V. Hill, Rodney P. Hughes, Matthew A. Lenard, David D. Liebowitz and Lindsay C. Page

30084: Causal Inference During a Pandemic: Evidence on the Effectiveness of Nebulized Ibuprofen as an Unproven Treatment for COVID-19 in Argentina

Sebastian Calonico, Rafael Di Tella and Juan Cruz Lopez Del Valle

30083: Robbing Peter to Pay Paul? The Redistribution of Wealth Caused by Rent Control

Kenneth Ahern and Marco Giacoletti

30082: Decarbonization and Electrification in the Long Run

Stephen P. Holland, Erin Mansur and Andrew Yates

30081: Creating American Farmland: Governance Institutions and Investment in Agricultural Drainage

Eric Edwards and Walter N. Thurman

30080: Producer Beliefs and Conservation: The Impact of Perceived Water Scarcity on Irrigation Technology Adoption

Joey Blumberg, Christopher Goemans and Dale Manning

30079: The Political Effects of Immigration: Culture or Economics?

Alberto Alesina and Marco Tabellini

30078: The “College Gap” in Marriage and Children’s Family Structure

Melissa Schettini Kearney

30077: Creative Destruction? Impact of E-Commerce on the Retail Sector

Sudheer Chava, Alexander Oettl, Manpreet Singh and Linghang Zeng

30076: A Penny for Your Thoughts

W Hanlon, Stephan Heblich, Ferdinando Monte and Martin B. Schmitz

30075: Boundary Discontinuity Methods and Policy Spillovers

Ekaterina S. Jardim, Mark Long, Robert Plotnick, Emma van Inwegen, Jacob Vigdor and Hilary Wething

30074: The Labor Market Impacts of Technological Change: From Unbridled Enthusiasm to Qualified Optimism to Vast Uncertainty

David Autor

30073: The Endowment Effect and Collateralized Loans

Kevin Carney, Michael Kremer, Xinyue Lin and Gautam Rao

30072: Monetary-Based Asset Pricing: A Mixed-Frequency Structural Approach

Francesco Bianchi, Sydney Ludvigson and Sai Ma

30071: Idiosyncrasy as a Leading Indicator

Randall Morck, Bernard Yeung and Lu Y. Zhang

30070: The Crime Effect of Refugees

Mevlude Akbulut-Yuksel, Naci Mocan, Semih Tumen and Belgi Turan

30069: Agricultural Crises and Government Responses Between the World Wars in the Atlantic Trading Network

Price Fishback

30068: Urban Sprawl and Social Capital: Evidence from Indonesian Cities

Andrea Civelli, Arya Gaduh, Alexander Rothenberg and Yao Wang

30067: Safety Nets and Social Welfare Expenditures in World Economic History

Price Fishback

30066: Markets, Governments, and the Institutional Structure of Social Welfare Expenditures in the United States and Sweden in the 20th Century

Price Fishback

30065: Bayesian Persuasion with Lie Detection

Florian Ederer and Weicheng Min

30064: Reserve System Design for Allocation of Scarce Medical Resources in a Pandemic: Some Perspectives from the Field

Parag Pathak, Govind Persad, Tayfun Sönmez and Utku Unver

30063: Safeguarding Consumers Through Minimum Quality Standards: Milk Inspections and Urban Mortality, 1880-1910

D. Mark Anderson, Kerwin Kofi Charles, Michael McKelligott and Daniel Rees

30062: Gender Differences in Response to Competitive Organization? Differences Across Fields from a Product Development Platform Field Experiment

Kevin Boudreau and Nilam Kaushik

30061: Air Pollution and Student Performance in the U.S

Michael Gilraine and Angela Zheng

30060: Real Effects of Supplying Safe Private Money

Chenzi Xu and He Yang

30059: Exorbitant Privilege Gained and Lost: Fiscal Implications

Zefeng Chen, Zhengyang Jiang, Hanno Lustig, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh and Mindy Xiaolan

30058: Voting on a Trade Agreement: Firm Networks and Attitudes Toward Openness

Esteban Méndez and Diana Van Patten

30057: Financial Inclusion, Economic Development, and Inequality: Evidence from Brazil

Julia Fonseca and Adrien Matray

30056: The Supplemental Poverty Measure: A New Method for Measuring Poverty

John Fitzgerald and Robert Moffitt

30055: Economic Integration and the Transmission of Democracy

Marco Tabellini and Giacomo Magistretti

30054: Addressing Non-Financial Barriers to College Access and Success: Evidence and Policy Implications

Susan Dynarski, Aizat Nurshatayeva, Lindsay C. Page and Judith Scott-Clayton

30053: Bargaining and International Reference Pricing in the Pharmaceutical Industry

Pierre Dubois, Ashvin Gandhi and Shoshana Vasserman

30052: Skill Heterogeneity and Aggregate Labor Market Dynamics

John R. Grigsby

30051: The Demand for Money, Near-Money, and Treasury Bonds

Arvind Krishnamurthy and Wenhao Li

30050: Small Campaign Donors

Laurent Bouton, Julia Cagé, Edgard Dewitte and Vincent Pons

30049: Cognitive Behavior Therapy Reduces Crime and Violence over 10 Years: Experimental Evidence

Christopher Blattman, Sebastian Chaskel, Julian C. Jamison and Margaret Sheridan

30048: Local Shocks and Internal Migration: The Disparate Effects of Robots and Chinese Imports in the US

Marius Faber, Andrés P. Sarto and Marco Tabellini

30047: Does the Delivery of Primary Health Care Improve Birth Outcomes? Evidence from the Rollout of Community Health Centers

Esra Kose, Siobhan M. O'Keefe and Maria Rosales-Rueda

30046: The Subjective Inflation Expectations of Households and Firms: Measurement, Determinants, and Implications

Michael Weber, Francesco D’Acunto, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Olivier Coibion

30045: How Should We Measure Infrastructure? The Case of Highways and Streets

Robert Kornfeld and Barbara M. Fraumeni

30044: Bargaining over Taxes and Entitlements in the Era of Unequal Growth

Marina Azzimonti, Laura Karpuska and Gabriel Mihalache

30043: The Welfare Implications of Carbon Price Certainty

Joseph Aldy and Sarah C. Armitage

30042: The Macroeconomic Expectations of Firms

Bernardo Candia, Olivier Coibion and Yuriy Gorodnichenko

30041: Housing Demand and Remote Work

John A. Mondragon and Johannes Wieland

30040: Understanding of Trade

Stefanie Stantcheva

30039: Steering a Ship in Illiquid Waters: Active Management of Passive Funds

Naz Koont, Yiming Ma, Lubos Pastor and Yao Zeng

30038: Liquidity Traps, Prudential Policies, and International Spillovers

Javier Bianchi and Louphou Coulibaly

30037: Price Theory for Incomplete Markets

Emmanuel Farhi, Alan Olivi and Iván Werning

30036: The Link between Health and Working Longer: Disparities in Work Capacity

Benjamin Berger, Italo Lopez Garcia, Nicole Maestas and Kathleen Mullen

30035: Human Capital Growth - with Region and Gender in Perspective

Gang Liu, Barbara M. Fraumeni and Shunsuke Managi

30034: The Secular Decline in Private Firm Leverage

Aymeric Bellon, Christine L. Dobridge, Erik P. Gilje and Andrew Whitten

30033: Noisy Global Value Chains

Ha Bui, Zhen Huo, Andrei Levchenko and Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

30032: Do Sell-Side Analysts Say “Buy” While Whispering “Sell”?

David Hirshleifer, Yushui Shi and Weili Wu

30031: Saving Effects of a Real-Life Imperfectly Implemented Net Wealth Tax: Evidence from Norwegian Micro Data

Annette Alstadsæter, Marie Bjørneby, Wojciech Kopczuk, Simen Markussen and Knut Røed

30030: Patterns of Time Use Among Older People

Maddalena Ferranna, Sevilla Jp, Leo Zucker and David Bloom

30029: The Case for Using the MVPF in Empirical Welfare Analysis

Nathaniel Hendren and Ben Sprung-Keyser

30028: GDPR and the Lost Generation of Innovative Apps

Rebecca Janßen, Reinhold Kesler, Michael E. Kummer and Joel Waldfogel

30027: Local Carbon Policy

José-Luis Cruz and Esteban Rossi-Hansberg

30026: Uncertainty Shocks, Capital Flows, and International Risk Spillovers

Ozge Akinci, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan and Albert Queralto

30025: State Dependent Government Spending Multipliers: Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity and Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations

Yoon Jo and Sarah Zubairy

30024: Government Debt and Capital Accumulation in an Era of Low Interest Rates

N. Gregory Mankiw

30023: Q-Monetary Transmission

Priit Jeenas and Ricardo Lagos

30022: Data and Markups: A Macro-Finance Perspective

Jan Eeckhout and Laura Veldkamp

30021: Analyzing the Agenda of the U.K. Parliament Over the Long Run

W Hanlon

30020: International Trade and the Environment: Three Remaining Empirical Challenges

Jevan Cherniwchan and M. Scott Taylor

30019: Population, Productivity, and Sustainable Consumption

Robert Pindyck

30018: Top Income Inequality and Tax Policy

Isaac Delestre, Wojciech Kopczuk, Helen Miller and Kate Smith

30017: Aligned with Whom? Direct and Social Goals for AI Systems

Anton Korinek and Avital Balwit

30016: The Dynamic Impact of Market Integration: Evidence from Renewable Energy Expansion in Chile

Luis Edwin Gonzales Carrasco, Koichiro Ito and Mar Reguant

30015: Bunching and Taxing Multidimensional Skills

Job Boerma, Aleh Tsyvinski and Alexander P. Zimin

30014: Weighted-Average Quantile Regression

Denis Chetverikov, Yukun Liu and Aleh Tsyvinski

30013: The Marginal Propensity to Consume in Heterogeneous Agent Models

Greg Kaplan and Giovanni Violante

30012: Credibility and Explicit Inflation Targeting

Robert King and Yang K. Lu