NBER Working Papers

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17026: Credit Risk and Disaster Risk

Francois Gourio

17025: Optimal Portfolio Choice with Wage-Indexed Social Security

Jialun Li and Kent Smetters

17024: Historical Evidence on the Finance-Trade-Growth Nexus

Michael Bordo and Peter Rousseau

17023: The Role of Skill Versus Luck in Poker: Evidence from the World Series of Poker

Steven Levitt and Thomas J. Miles

17022: The Quantification of Systemic Risk and Stability: New Methods and Measures

Romney B. Duffey

17021: Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations

Simon Gilchrist and Egon Zakrajšek

17020: Remembering to Pay? Reminders vs. Financial Incentives for Loan Payments

Ximena Cadena and Antoinette Schoar

17019: The Value of Secure Property Rights: Evidence from Global Fisheries

Corbett Grainger and Christopher Costello

17018: Framing Effects and Expected Social Security Claiming Behavior

Jeffrey Brown, Arie Kapteyn and Olivia Mitchell

17017: Public Goods Agreements with Other-Regarding Preferences

Charles Kolstad

17016: Socioeconomic Status in Childhood and Health After Age 70: A New Longitudinal Analysis for the U.S., 1895-2005

Joseph P. Ferrie and Karen Rolf

17015: A Matter of Trust: Understanding Worldwide Public Pension Conversions

Kent Smetters and Walter E. Theseira

17014: Managing Self-Confidence: Theory and Experimental Evidence

Markus Mobius, Muriel Niederle, Paul Niehaus and Tanya Rosenblat

17013: The Organization of R&D in American Corporations: The Determinants and Consequences of Decentralization

Ashish Arora, Sharon Belenzon and Luis A. Rios

17012: Reshaping Institutions: Evidence on Aid Impacts Using a Pre-Analysis Plan

Katherine Casey, Rachel Glennerster and Edward Miguel

17011: Can Medical Progress be Sustained? Implications of the Link Between Development and Output Markets

Anup Malani and Tomas Philipson

17010: Legal Investor Protection and Takeovers

Mike Burkart, Denis Gromb, Holger M. Mueller and Fausto Panunzi

17009: Estimates of Crowd-Out from a Public Health Insurance Expansion Using Administrative Data

Laura Dague, Thomas DeLeire, Donna Friedsam, Daphne Kuo, Lindsey Leininger, Sarah Meier and Kristen Voskuil

17008: Sustainability and its Measurement

Geoffrey Heal

17007: Continuous Workout Mortgages

Robert Shiller, Rafal Wojakowski, M. Shahid Ebrahim and Mark Shackleton

17006: Durable Financial Regulation: Monitoring Financial Instruments as a Counterpart to Regulating Financial Institutions

Leonard Nakamura

17005: Should Central Banks Raise their Inflation Targets? Some Relevant Issues

Bennett McCallum

17004: The Impact of Pollution on Worker Productivity

Joshua Graff Zivin and Matthew Neidell

17003: Terms of Trade and Global Efficiency Effects of Free Trade Agreements, 1990-2002

James Anderson and Yoto Yotov

17002: Does Government Investment in Local Public Goods Spur Gentrification? Evidence from Beijing

Siqi Zheng and Matthew Kahn

17001: Negative Leakage

Don Fullerton, Daniel Karney and Kathy Baylis

17000: Counterparty Risk Externality: Centralized Versus Over-the-counter Markets

Viral Acharya and Alberto Bisin

16999: Household Debt and Saving During the 2007 Recession

Rajashri Chakrabarti, Donghoon Lee, Wilbert van der Klaauw and Basit Zafar

16998: Systemic Risks and the Macroeconomy

Gianni De Nicolò and Marcella Lucchetta

16997: Quantile Regression with Censoring and Endogeneity

Victor Chernozhukov, Ivan Fernandez-Val and Amanda Kowalski

16996: Shocks and Crashes

Martin Lettau and Sydney Ludvigson

16995: Cash Holdings and Credit Risk

Viral Acharya, Sergei A. Davydenko and Ilya Strebulaev

16994: Illiquid Banks, Financial Stability, and Interest Rate Policy

Douglas Diamond and Raghuram Rajan

16993: The Rate and Direction of Invention in the British Industrial Revolution: Incentives and Institutions

Ralf Meisenzahl and Joel Mokyr

16992: China's Rising Demand for "Green Cities": Evidence from Cross-City Real Estate Price Hedonics

Siqi Zheng, Jing Cao and Matthew Kahn

16991: Pensions in the 2000s: the Lost Decade?

Edward Wolff

16990: The Pragmatist's Guide to Comparative Effectiveness Research

Amitabh Chandra, Anupam Jena and Jonathan Skinner

16989: Cross-border media and nationalism: Evidence from Serbian radio in Croatia

Stefano DellaVigna, Ruben Enikolopov, Vera Mironova, Maria Petrova and Ekaterina Zhuravskaya

16988: Intertemporal Price Discrimination in Storable Goods Markets

Igal Hendel and Aviv Nevo

16987: The Cost of Fuel Economy in the Indian Passenger Vehicle Market

Randy Chugh, Maureen Cropper and Urvashi Narain

16986: Employment in Black Urban Labor Markets: Problems and Solutions

Judith Hellerstein and David Neumark

16985: Drowning or Weathering the Storm? Changes in Family Finances from 2007 to 2009

Jesse Bricker, Brian K. Bucks, Arthur Kennickell, Traci L. Mach and Kevin Moore

16984: Diversity and Technological Progress

Daron Acemoglu

16983: Did Plant Patents Create the American Rose?

Petra Moser and Paul Rhode

16982: Systemic Sovereign Credit Risk: Lessons from the U.S. and Europe

Andrew Ang and Francis Longstaff

16981: A Test of Racial Bias in Capital Sentencing

Alberto Alesina and Eliana La Ferrara

16980: Funding Scientific Knowledge: Selection, Disclosure and the Public-Private Portfolio

Joshua Gans and Fiona E. Murray

16979: Bank Finance Versus Bond Finance

Fiorella De Fiore and Harald Uhlig

16978: The Demand for Health Insurance Among Uninsured Americans: Results of a Survey Experiment and Implications for Policy

Alan Krueger and Ilyana Kuziemko

16977: How does Risk Selection Respond to Risk Adjustment? Evidence from the Medicare Advantage Program

Jason Brown, Mark Duggan, Ilyana Kuziemko and William Woolston

16976: Stock Volatility During the Recent Financial Crisis

G. Schwert

16975: Dissecting the Effect of Credit Supply on Trade: Evidence from Matched Credit-Export Data

Daniel Paravisini, Veronica Rappoport, Philipp Schnabl and Daniel Wolfenzon

16974: What Do Consumers Believe About Future Gasoline Prices?

Soren Anderson, Ryan Kellogg and James Sallee

16973: The Effect of Education on Religion: Evidence from Compulsory Schooling Laws

Daniel Hungerman

16972: Discount Rates

John Cochrane

16971: Valuing Mortality Risk Reductions: Progress and Challenges

Maureen Cropper, James Hammitt and Lisa Robinson

16970: On the Relationship Between Mobility, Population Growth, and Capital Spending in the United States

Marco Bassetto and Leslie McGranahan

16969: Selection on Moral Hazard in Health Insurance

Liran Einav, Amy Finkelstein, Stephen Ryan, Paul Schrimpf and Mark R. Cullen

16968: What Do Business Climate Indexes Teach Us About State Policy and Economic Growth?

Jed Kolko, David Neumark and Marisol Cuellar Mejia

16967: Global retail lending in the aftermath of the US financial crisis: Distinguishing between supply and demand effects

Manju Puri, Jörg Rocholl and Sascha Steffen

16966: Hither Thou Shalt Come, But No Further: Reply to "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation: Comment"

Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and James Robinson

16965: Household Leverage and the Recession

Callum Jones, Virgiliu Midrigan and Thomas Philippon

16964: Exporting Christianity: Governance and Doctrine in the Globalization of US Denominations

Gordon Hanson and Chong Xiang

16963: Contracting for Impure Public Goods: Carbon Offsets and Additionality

Charles Mason and Andrew Plantinga

16962: Market-specific and Currency-specific Risk During the Global Financial Crisis: Evidence from the Interbank Markets in Tokyo and London

Shin-ichi Fukuda

16961: Sentencing Guidelines and Judicial Discretion: Quasi-experimental Evidence from Human Calculation Errors

Shawn Bushway, Emily Owens and Anne Piehl

16960: Trade Liberalization and Firm Dynamics

Ariel Burstein and Marc Melitz

16959: Market Size, Competition, and the Product Mix of Exporters

Thierry Mayer, Marc Melitz and Gianmarco Ottaviano

16958: Trade Adjustment and Productivity in Large Crises

Gita Gopinath and Brent Neiman

16957: Consumption Smoothing and Portfolio Rebalancing: The Effects of Adjustment Costs

Yosef Bonaparte, Russell Cooper and Guozhong Zhu

16956: The Effectiveness of Alternative Monetary Policy Tools in a Zero Lower Bound Environment

James Hamilton and Jing Cynthia Wu

16955: Learning During a Crisis: the SARS Epidemic in Taiwan

Daniel Bennett, Chun-Fang Chiang and Anup Malani

16954: Tipping Climate Negotiations

Geoffrey Heal and Howard Kunreuther

16953: Technology Growth and Expenditure Growth in Health Care

Amitabh Chandra and Jonathan Skinner

16952: Coups, Corporations, and Classified Information

Arindrajit Dube, Ethan Kaplan and Suresh Naidu

16951: Foresight and Information Flows

Eric Leeper, Todd Walker and Shu-Chun Yang

16950: Why Surplus Consumption in the Habit Model May be Less Persistent than You Think

Anthony W. Lynch and Oliver Randall

16949: How Prediction Markets Can Save Event Studies

Erik Snowberg, Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz

16948: Do Local Elections in Non-Democracies Increase Accountability? Evidence from Rural China

Monica Martinez-Bravo, Gerard Padró i Miquel, Nancy Qian and Yang Yao

16947: Lifting the Domestic Veil: The Challenges of Exporting Differentiated Goods Across the Development Divide

Alejandro Artopoulos, Daniel Friel and Juan Hallak

16946: U.S. Intervention During the Bretton Woods Era: 1962-1973

Michael Bordo, Owen Humpage and Anna Schwartz

16945: A Solution to Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile

Jeffrey Frankel

16944: Fighting Procrastination in the Workplace: An Experiment

Ximena Cadena, Antoinette Schoar, Alexandra Cristea and Héber M. Delgado-Medrano

16943: The Circulation of Ideas in Firms and Markets

Thomas Hellmann and Enrico Perotti

16942: Carry Trade and Momentum in Currency Markets

Craig Burnside, Martin Eichenbaum and Sergio Rebelo

16941: Macroeconomic Conditions and Capital Raising

Isil Erel, Brandon Julio, Woojin Kim and Michael Weisbach

16940: Exports and Credit Constraints Under Incomplete Information: Theory and Evidence from China

Robert Feenstra, Zhiyuan Li and Miaojie Yu

16939: Education as Liberation?

Willa Friedman, Michael Kremer, Edward Miguel and Rebecca Thornton

16938: An Overview of The Changing Body: Health, Nutrition, and Human Development in the Western World Since 1700

Robert Fogel and Nathaniel Grotte

16937: Broadening Focus: Spillovers, Complementarities and Specialization in the Hospital Industry

Jonathan R. Clark and Robert Huckman

16936: An Elementary Theory of Global Supply Chains

Arnaud Costinot, Jonathan Vogel and Su Wang

16935: Inference with Imperfect Randomization: The Case of the Perry Preschool Program

James Heckman, Rodrigo Pinto, Azeem Shaikh and Adam Yavitz

16934: Cities, Skills, and Regional Change

Edward Glaeser, Giacomo Ponzetto and Kristina Tobio

16933: Happiness on Tap: Piped Water Adoption in Urban Morocco

Florencia Devoto, Esther Duflo, Pascaline Dupas, William Parienté and Vincent Pons

16932: Fiscal Zoning and Sales Taxes: Do Higher Sales Taxes Lead to More Retailing and Less Manufacturing?

Daria Burnes, David Neumark and Michelle White

16931: Testable Implications of Affine Term Structure Models

James Hamilton and Jing Cynthia Wu

16930: Information Shocks and Social Networks

David Figlio, Sarah Hamersma and Jeffrey Roth

16929: Noncontractible Investments and Reference Points

Oliver Hart

16928: Efficient Estimation of Data Combination Models by the Method of Auxiliary-to-Study Tilting (AST)

Bryan Graham, Cristine Pinto and Daniel Egel

16927: The Psychological Costs of War: Military Combat and Mental Health

Resul Cesur, Joseph J. Sabia and Erdal Tekin