NBER Working Papers

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35897: Inverted Gravity

James Anderson, Mario Larch and Yoto Yotov

35896: When Cash Flows Turn Negative: Liquidity-Driven Selling by Pension Funds

Aleksandar Andonov, Kristy A. E. Jansen and Joshua Rauh

35895: Do Judges Move Markets? Ideological Shifts in the Supreme Court and Macroeconomic Expectations

Thomas Drechsel and Naixin Zhang

35894: Estimating the Impact of Targeted Public Policies with Limited Data

Kelly M. Jones and Mayra Pineda-Torres

35893: Affirmative Action in Centralized College Admissions Systems

Nano Barahona, Caue Dobbin and Sebastián Otero

35892: Strategic Complementarity and Persistence in Linear-Quadratic Mean Field Games

Fernando E. Alvarez and David Argente

35891: Measurement Error in Self-Reported Data on Stigmatized Behavior: Experimental Evidence on Intimate Partner Violence

Jorge M. Agüero, Ursula Aldana, Erica M. Field, Veronica Frisancho, Ignacio Rodriguez Hurtado and Javier Romero

35890: Gains from Trade in Gun Policy: A Compensation-Based Benchmark

Bradley T. Shapiro, Sara Drango and Sarah Moshary

35889: Industrial Policy via the IPO Market

Zhiguo He, Yiming Qian, Xi Sun and Wang Renxuan

35888: Access to Capital and the IPO Decision: An Analysis of US Private Firms

Andres Almazan, Nathan Swem, Sheridan Titman and Gregory Weitzner

35887: Road Pricing under Heterogeneity

Itai Ater, Brad Ross, Adi Shany and Shoshana Vasserman

35886: The Impact of Central Bank Stock Purchases: Evidence from Discontinuities in Policy Rules

Masao Fukui and Masayuki Yagasaki

35885: Explaining Realized Returns: Roll’s R2 40 Years Later

Bryan T. Kelly, Yinan Su and Chao Zhang

35884: Learning About Outgroups: The Impact of Broad Versus Deep Interactions

Anujit Chakraborty, Arkadev Ghosh, Matt Lowe and Gareth Nellis

35883: Producing to Signal: Private Information in Dynamic Quantity Competition

Andrew Sweeting, Xuezhen Tao and Qian Wang

35882: What Can (and Cannot) Be Learned about Systemic Racial Discrimination from Randomized Controlled Trials?

Dania V. Francis, Rob Gillezeau, Damon Jones and Angelino Viceisza

35881: Does Remote Work Increase Fertility?

Andrew Johnston

35880: The Relationship between Income and Health: Evidence from Nationwide Health Exams in Korea

Liran Einav, Amy Finkelstein and Sehyun Hong

35879: How Knowledge Crosses Borders: Evidence from Semiconductor Manufacturing

Pinelopi Goldberg, Réka Juhász, Giulia Lo Forte and Jeff Thurk

35878: When Does Randomized Oversight Align AI Agents That Can Conceal?

Joshua Gans and Richard Holden

35877: Indirect Variational Inference: Applications to Earnings Dynamics

Neele L. Balke, Stéphane Bonhomme and Thibaut Lamadon

35876: Survival versus Scale: The Effects of Critical Access Hospital Designation

Ian M. McCarthy and Katie Leinenbach

35875: High and Rising Institutional Concentration of Award-Winning Economists

Richard Freeman, Danxia Xie, Hanzhe Zhang and Hanzhang Zhou

35874: Tax Planning and Multinational Behavior

Rosanne Altshuler, Lysle Boller, Kevin A. Roberts and Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato

35873: In Utero Exposure to the 1982 Tylenol Recall and Neurodevelopmental Outcomes

Christopher M. Worsham, Charles Bray, Joshua Rothman, Brian Kwan and Anupam Jena

35872: Estimating Heterogeneous Impacts with Endogenous Participation and Non-Compliance

Orazio Attanasio, Lina Cardona-Sosa and Ziqian Liu

35871: The Effects of Long-Term Exposure to Pollution on Health

Joshua Graff Zivin, Johnny Huynh, Timothy Frank Justicz, Adriana Lleras-Muney and Matthew Neidell

35870: Aligning Platform and User Incentives in Social Media Age Restrictions

Leonardo Bursztyn, Rafael Jimenez-Duran, Aaron Leonard, Filip Milojević and Christopher Roth

35869: Voluntary Corporate Climate Targets in a Patchwork Policy Landscape

Joseph Aldy, Michael Toffel, Alison J. Ong and Lavender Yang

35868: Optimal Line-Drawing for Legal Rules

Jacob Goldin and David Weisbach

35867: The Investment Channel of Monetary Policy: Disentangling Firm Heterogeneity

Thomas Drechsel, Daniel Lewis, Davide Melcangi and Laura Pilossoph

35866: Gang Crackdowns

Nikita Melnikov, Carlos Schmidt-Padilla and María Micaela Sviatschi

35865: Financing the AI Buildout

Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

35864: From Importer to Exporter: Oil Shocks and the U.S. Economy

Diego Känzig, James Stock and Luca Zanotti

35863: Reassessing the 2000s Housing Cycle After Two Decades of Research

Adam Guren

35862: The Geopolitical Trap: How Great Power Rivalry Protects Rising Powers

Johann Caro-Burnett, Sebastian Galiani and Gustavo Torrens

35861: Labor Supply and Wages over the Life Cycle: Human Capital and Disability Benefits

Richard Blundell, Monica Costa-Dias, Graham Mazeine, Costas Meghir and Tom Waters

35860: Communicating Performance: Textual and Financial Disclosures in Private Equity

Josh Lerner, Fiona Paine and Antoinette Schoar

35859: How Heavily Are PhD Students Offloading Their Scientific Writing to AI? Evidence from US STEM PhD Dissertations

Daniel Gross, Dror Shvadron and Hansen Zhang

35858: Stressful Exposure from the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami Drives Long-term Changes in Thyroid Hormone Physiology

Ralph I. Lawton, Duncan Thomas, Elizabeth Frankenberg, Cecep Sumantri, Teresa Seeman, Eileen Crimmins and Daniel Hochbaum

35857: Capital-Skill Complementarity Beyond Firm Boundaries

Gert Bijnens, Anders Humlum and Stijn Vanormelingen

35856: Which Workers Left the Labor Force Post-COVID Recession and Why?: Filing, Tax Credit Take-Up, and Labor Force Engagement by Occupation

Andrew C. Barr, Laura Kawano, Bruce Sacerdote and Michael Stevens

35855: Physicians' Occupational Licensing and the Quantity-Quality Trade-off

Juan Pablo Atal, Tomás Larroucau, Pablo Muñoz and Cristóbal Otero

35854: Taxing Entrepreneurial Wealth: Evidence from Norway, 2021–2025

Marius A. K. Ring

35853: Randomized to Opportunity: Measuring Place Effects for Refugee Children

N. Meltem Daysal, Joseph J. Doyle, Naeim Samandari, Emil A. L. Simonsen and Mircea Trandafir

35852: Living in a Ghost Town: The Geography of Depopulation and Aging

Elisa Giannone, Yuhei Miyauchi, Nuno Paixao, Xinle Pang and Yuta Suzuki

35851: Latent Human Capital: How Early Investments in Parents Buffer Against Future Schooling Shocks

Shruti Jha, John List, Rebecca C. Royer and Anya Samek

35850: Debt Sustainability and the Range of Multiple Equilibria

Olivier Blanchard, Pedro Martínez-Bruera and Gonzalo Huertas

35849: Avoiding Regulation: Evidence from Nursing Homes

Alden Cheng and Riley League

35848: The Regulatory Burden of Licensure Sales Laws: New Evidence on Race and the U.S. Tobacco Market

Dhaval Dave, Jooyoung Kim and Joseph J. Sabia

35847: Targeted Acceleration in Middle School Math: Impacts on College Entry, Degree Completion, and STEM

David Card and Laura Giuliano

35846: Are Prediction Markets Politically Biased?

Eric Zitzewitz

35845: Limits to Arbitrage and Prediction Market Efficiency: the Case of PredictIt

Eric Zitzewitz

35844: Aging Out of Coverage: Lessons from the West Virginia $1,000 Adult Dental Benefit

Daniel S. Grossman, Kole T. Reddig, Jane Ruseski and Fotinos Panagakos

35843: Welfare Analysis with Complementarities: When Direct and Total Responses Are Sufficient

David Argente

35842: Schooling and Political Activism in the Early Civil Rights Era

Daniel Aaronson, Mark Borgschulte, Sunny Liu and Bhashkar Mazumder

35841: Soft Reserves, Learning and Bid Adjustment in Advertising Auctions

Joshua Gans

35840: Asymmetric Reversals

Federico Baldi-Lanfranchi, Pierre Collin-Dufresne and Kent Daniel

35839: Large Language Models as Voting Mechanisms

Raša Karapandža and Yaw Nyarko

35838: When Does Bad News Stick? Topic-Level Asymmetry in Narrative Dynamics

Isha Agarwal, Wentong Chen and Eswar Prasad

35837: Approximating the Equilibrium Effects of Informed School Choice

Claudia Allende, Francisco Gallego and Christopher Neilson

35836: Consumption, Savings, and Earnings Responses to Financial Windfalls

Rajashri Chakrabarti, Philippe d'Astous, Kory Kroft, Sheisha Kulkarni, Vyacheslav Mikhed, Matthew Notowidigdo, Sahil Raina and Barry Scholnick

35835: Does Food Assistance Drive Spending on Sugary Foods? Evidence from the Pandemic Electronic Benefit Transfer Program

Georgina Cisneros and Brandyn Churchill

35834: A Framework for Integrating Climate Goals into Trade Agreements

Farid Farrokhi, Ahmad Lashkaripour and Homa Taheri

35833: Crowding Out Temptation: Experimental Evidence on Savings and Health Behaviors in Kenya

Harsha Thirumurthy, Elizabeth F. Bair, Dean Yang, Teniola I. Egbe, Benard Ayieko, Julius Wesonga, Sue Napierala, Connie Celum, Mary E. Putt, Carol S. Camlin and Mark Ayallo

35832: Global Temperature and Global Mortality

Adrien Bilal, Diego Känzig and Krzysztof Lisiecki

35831: Subjective Models of the Macroeconomy and the Transmission of Monetary Policy

Francesco D’Acunto, Dimitris Georgarakos, Geoff Kenny and Michael Weber

35830: Economics of Demand-Side and Supply-Side Climate Policies

Ryan Kellogg

35829: Importers, Market Power and Optimal Tariffs

Jonathan Becker, Corina Boar and Virgiliu Midrigan

35828: Liability and Pricing of Dual-Use AI

Joshua Gans

35827: Crime in Covid Times

Jens Ludwig

35826: Accounting for Cross-Country Income Differences Revisited

David Lagakos and Todd Schoellman

35825: The Positive Spillovers to Risky Investments in Vacant, Abandoned, and Disinvested Properties

Edward W. Chen, Reagan L. Lengefeld and Omar Isaac Asensio

35824: Does Fertility Stabilize At Low Levels? Evidence from Period, Cohort, and Subnational Data

Diane Coffey, Michael Geruso, Dean Spears and Sangita Vyas

35823: Optimal Population Growth in the Diamond OLG Model

Laurence Ball

35822: Financial Innovation and the International Monetary System

Gordon Liao, Eswar Prasad and Tony Zhang

35821: Endogenous Rigidities and Capital Misallocation: Evidence from Containerships

Maria Garcia-Osipenko, Nicholas Vreugdenhil and Nahim Bin Zahur

35820: Social Sorting and Political Cleavages: Evidence from 2.5 Million Electoral Candidates

Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde and Carlos Sanz

35819: Timing, Trading Frictions, and the Limits of Subsidy Capture in Livestock Risk Protection

Yifei Zhang, Andrew Keller, Shawn Arita and Sandro Steinbach

35818: Windows of Opportunity in Early Childhood: A Dynamic Model of Multidimensional Development

Orazio Attanasio, Raquel Bernal, Michele Giannola and Milagros Nores

35817: Early Results from the RESET Demonstration Project: Inflation in Food at Home

Steve Coffey, Gabriel Ehrlich, John Haltiwanger, Ron Jarmin, David Johnson, Tod Johnson and Matthew Shapiro

35816: The Great Accretion and the Great Depression

Harold Cole, Stefano Cravero and Jeremy Greenwood

35815: The Commoditization of Labor

Masao Fukui, Emi Nakamura and Jon Steinsson

35814: Foreign Opportunity and Regional Revival: Evidence from the French Rust Belt

Antoine B. Levy and Mathilde Muñoz

35813: The Dynamics of Development in a Zero-Sum World

Augustin Bergeron, Jean-Paul Carvalho, Joseph Henrich, Nathan Nunn and Jonathan L. Weigel

35812: Transportation Bottlenecks and Aggregate Shocks

Giulia Brancaccio, Myrto Kalouptsidi, Theodore Papageorgiou and Yixin Zhou

35811: Evaluating the Spatial Consequences of a Climate Tipping Point

José-Luis Cruz, Klaus Desmet and Esteban Rossi-Hansberg

35810: Like a Good Neighbor: Childhood Neighbors Influence Occupation Choice

Michael Andrews, Ryan R. Hill, Joseph Price and Riley Wilson

35809: Terra Incognita: The Economics of a Shrinking World

Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde and Patrick Norrick

35808: Shipping to America

Xiwen Bai, Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, Yiliang Li, Ricardo Marto and Francesco Zanetti

35807: Network General Equilibrium as a Threat to Identification: The Failure of Time Fixed Effects

Bernard Herskovic and Gill Segal

35806: Deep Learning as a Projection Method for Solving Economic Models

Kenneth Judd and Karl Schmedders

35805: Foreign Tax Advantages after the U.S. Tax Reform of 2017

Anmol Bhandari and Ellen McGrattan

35804: Beveridgean Phillips Curve

Pascal Michaillat and Emmanuel Saez

35803: Injury, Workload, and the Strategic Response of Coaches in the NBA

Kala Krishna, Sergey Lychagin and Lewis S. McLean

35802: The Political Foundations of Industrial Policy: Emergence, Endurance, and Exhaustion

Lottie Field, Réka Juhász and Michele Zampa

35801: Inference for Regression with Clustered or Spatially Correlated Data II: Spatial Correlation

A. Cameron and Douglas Miller

35800: Inference for Regression with Clustered or Spatially Correlated Data I: Framework and Clustering

A. Cameron and Douglas Miller

35799: The Wealth of Nations: Origins of Prosperity and Seeds of Inequality

Oded Galor

35798: Are Guidelines Worth Following? Decision-Making Under Incomplete Evidence

Jason Abaluck, Leila Agha and David C. Chan