The Impact of Climate Change on Fisheries

Fabio Cevenini, Christopher Costello and Carlo Fezzi

No 35994, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: This paper provides the first causal estimate of the effect of ocean temperature variations on fishing revenue. We develop a simple theoretical model underpinning an empirical specification estimated on 2.5 million spatially explicit observations of fishing revenue from all European vessels for 2013–2022. The identification strategy leverages a novel metric, Marine Degree Days, which quantifies species-specific temperature exposure relative to biologically established thermal tolerance intervals. Within this framework we address key identification challenges, including spatial selection and ecological interdependencies across species. We find that deviations from species’ thermal preferences lead to significant losses in fishing revenue, with heat exposure causing the most pronounced impacts. These effects are mediated by species’ vertical mobility and ecological characteristics. Projections across different climate scenarios point to widespread revenue declines by 2100, reaching €560 million annual losses in the warmest scenario, though impacts are highly spatially heterogeneous. Lower-income, equatorial areas are expected to suffer the most, while some colder regions experience gains.

JEL-codes: Q22 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-11
Note: EEE
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