NBER Working Papers

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12660: Thin-Slice Forecasts of Gubernatorial Elections

Daniel Benjamin and Jesse Shapiro

12659: Simplification and Saving

John Beshears, James Choi, David Laibson and Brigitte Madrian

12658: Asset Pricing Models with Conditional Betas and Alphas: The Effects of Data Snooping and Spurious Regression

Wayne Ferson, Sergei Sarkissian and Timothy Simin

12657: Was the Wealth of Nations Determined in 1000 B.C.?

Diego Comin, William Easterly and Erick Gong

12656: Bankruptcy and Collateral in Debt Constrained Markets

Timothy Kehoe and David Levine

12655: Is the Eldest Son Different? The Residential Choice of Siblings in Japan

Midori Wakabayashi and Charles Horioka

12654: Inflation Implications of Rising Government Debt

Chryssi Giannitsarou and Andrew Scott

12653: Political Competitiveness

Casey Mulligan and Kevin Tsui

12652: The Effects of Education Quality on Income Growth and Mortality Decline

Eliot A. Jamison, Dean Jamison and Eric Hanushek

12651: School Quality and the Black-White Achievement Gap

Eric Hanushek and Steven Rivkin

12650: Long Term Risk: An Operator Approach

Lars Hansen and Jose Scheinkman

12649: Why do firms hold so much cash? A tax-based explanation

C. Fritz Foley, Jay C. Hartzell, Sheridan Titman and Garry Twite

12648: Learning and Disagreement in an Uncertain World

Daron Acemoglu, Victor Chernozhukov and Muhamet Yildiz

12647: Two Flaws In Business Cycle Accounting

Lawrence Christiano and Joshua M. Davis

12646: Product Differentiation and Film Programming Choice: Do First-Run Movie Theatres Show the Same Films?

Darlene C. Chisholm, Margaret McMillan and George Norman

12645: The Economics of Earnings Manipulation and Managerial Compensation

Keith J. Crocker and Joel Slemrod

12644: Devaluation with Contract Redenomination in Argentina

Charles Calomiris

12643: Cost-Offsets of New Medications for Treatment of Schizophrenia

Richard G. Frank, Thomas G. McGuire and Sharon-Lise Normand

12642: Welfare Reform and Indirect Impacts on Health

Marianne Bitler and Hilary Hoynes

12641: Crime and Punishment in the "American Dream"

Rafael Di Tella and Juan Dubra

12640: University Patenting: Estimating the Diminishing Breadth of Knowledge Diffusion and Consumption

Carlos Rosell and Ajay Agrawal

12639: Cash-on-Hand and Competing Models of Intertemporal Behavior: New Evidence from the Labor Market

David Card, Raj Chetty and Andrea Weber

12638: Revealing the Secrets of the Temple: The Value of Publishing Central Bank Interest Rate Projections

Glenn Rudebusch and John Williams

12637: A New Framework for Analyzing and Managing Macrofinancial Risks of an Economy

Dale F. Gray, Robert Merton and Zvi Bodie

12636: When Bioterrorism Was No Big Deal

Patricia E. Beeson and Werner Troesken

12635: Tacit Collusion in the Presence of Cyclical Demand and Endogenous Capacity Levels

Christopher Knittel and Jason J. Lepore

12634: When is Market Incompleteness Irrelevant for the Price of Aggregate Risk (and when is it not)?

Dirk Krueger and Hanno Lustig

12633: Illiquid Assets and Optimal Portfolio Choice

Eduardo S. Schwartz and Claudio Tebaldi

12632: Does Television Cause Autism?

Michael Waldman, Sean Nicholson and Nodir Adilov

12631: The Impact of Incentives on Human Behavior: Can We Make It Disappear? The Case of the Death Penalty

Naci Mocan and R. Gittings

12630: On the Heterogeneity of Dowry Motives

Raj Arunachalam and Trevon Logan

12629: Real Business Cycles in Emerging Countries?

Javier García-Cicco, Roberto Pancrazi and Martín Uribe

12628: Cramming: The Effects of School Accountability on College-Bound Students

Colleen Donovan, David Figlio and Mark Rush

12627: Individual Teacher Incentives And Student Performance

David Figlio and Lawrence Kenny

12626: The Performance of Reverse Leveraged Buyouts

Jerry Cao and Josh Lerner

12625: On the Existence and Efficiency of Equilibria Under Liability Rules

Ram Singh

12624: Welfare Reform and Family Expenditures: How are Single Mothers Adapting to the New Welfare and Work Regime?

Neeraj Kaushal, Qin Gao and Jane Waldfogel

12623: Tradeoffs from Integrating Diagnosis and Treatment in Markets for Health Care

Christopher C. Afendulis and Daniel P. Kessler

12622: Relationship Banking and the Pricing of Financial Services

Charles Calomiris and Thanavut Pornrojnangkool

12621: Demographic Change, Social Security Systems, and Savings

David Bloom, David Canning, Rick Mansfield and Michael Moore

12620: External Imbalances in an Advanced, Commodity-Exporting Country: The Case of New Zealand

Sebastian Edwards

12619: An Instrumental Variable Evaluation of Antidepressant Use on Employment Among HIV-Infected Women Using Highly-Active Antiretroviral Therapy in the United States: 1996-2004

Omar Galarraga, David Salkever, Judith A. Cook and Stephen J. Gange

12618: Reservation Wages and Unemployment Insurance

Robert Shimer and Iván Werning

12617: Regulation - the Corridor to Liberalization: The Experience of the Israeli Phone Market 1984-2005

Reuben Gronau

12616: A Simple Test of the Effect of Interest Rate Defense

Allan Drazen and Stefan Hubrich

12615: Time Preference, Time Discounting, and Smoking Decisions

Ahmed Khwaja, Dan Silverman and Frank Sloan

12614: Bubbles and Self-Enforcing Debt

Christian Hellwig and Guido Lorenzoni

12613: British Colonial Institutions and Economic Development in India

Shilpi Kapur and Sukkoo Kim

12612: Tracing the Impact of Bank Liquidity Shocks: Evidence from an Emerging Market

Atif Mian and Asim Khwaja

12611: Evaluating the Economic Significance of Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity

Michael Elsby

12610: Lost Decades: Lessons from Post-Independence Latin America for Today's Africa

Robert Bates, John H. Coatsworth and Jeffrey Williamson

12609: Equilibrium Yield Curves

Monika Piazzesi and Martin Schneider

12608: Methodological Issues in the Evaluation of Parental Involvement Laws: Evidence from Texas

Silvie Colman, Ted Joyce and Robert Kaestner

12607: Further Tests of Abortion and Crime: A Response to Donohue and Levitt (2001,2004, 2006)

Ted Joyce

12606: The Conquest of South American Inflation

Thomas Sargent, Noah Williams and Tao Zha

12605: Sticky Information in General Equilibrium

N. Gregory Mankiw and Ricardo Reis

12604: Strategic Incompatibility in ATM Markets

Christopher Knittel and Victor Stango

12603: Lead Pipes and Child Mortality

Karen Clay, Werner Troesken and Michael Haines

12602: Trade Costs in the First Wave of Globalization

David Jacks, Christopher Meissner and Dennis Novy

12601: The Causes and Consequences of Land Use Regulation: Evidence from Greater Boston

Edward Glaeser and Bryce Ward

12600: Progressive Estate Taxation

Emmanuel Farhi and Iván Werning

12599: You Cannot be Serious: The Conceptual Innovator as Trickster

David Galenson

12598: The Assignment of Property Rights on the Western Frontier: Lessons for Contemporary Environmental and Resource Policy

Gary Libecap

12597: Defined Contribution Plans, Defined Benefit Plans, and the Accumulation of Retirement Wealth

James Poterba, Joshua Rauh, Steven Venti and David Wise

12596: Professor Qualities and Student Achievement

Florian Hoffmann and Philip Oreopoulos

12595: What Drove First Year Premiums in Stand-Alone Medicare Drug Plans?

Kosali Simon and Claudio Lucarelli

12594: Deposit Insurance and the Composition of Bank Suspensions in Developing Economies: Lessons from the State Deposit Insurance Experiments of the 1920S

Ching-Yi Chung and Gary Richardson

12593: David Laidler on Monetarism

Michael Bordo and Anna Schwartz

12592: Skill vs. Luck in Entrepreneurship and Venture Capital: Evidence from Serial Entrepreneurs

Paul Gompers, Anna Kovner, Josh Lerner and David Scharfstein

12591: Monetary Intervention Mitigated Banking Panics During the Great Depression: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from the Federal Reserve District Border in Mississippi, 1929 to 1933

Gary Richardson and William Troost

12590: Bank Distress During the Great Contraction, 1929 to 1933, New Data from the Archives of the Board of Governors

Gary Richardson

12589: Cross-border Listings, Capital Controls, and Equity Flows To Emerging Markets

Hali Edison and Francis Warnock

12588: Optimal Inequality/Optimal Incentives: Evidence from a Tournament

Richard Freeman and Alexander Gelber

12587: Volatility in International Financial Market Issuance: The Role of the Financial Center

Marco Cipriani and Graciela Kaminsky

12586: Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Developing Countries: The Tale of the Tormented Insurer

Enrique Mendoza and P. Marcelo Oviedo

12585: Baby Boomer Retirement Security: the Roles of Planning, Financial Literacy, and Housing Wealth

Annamaria Lusardi and Olivia Mitchell

12584: Shooting the Auctioneer

Roger Farmer and Andrew Hollenhorst

12583: When Knowledge is an Asset: Explaining the Organizational Structure of Large Law Firms

James Rebitzer and Lowell Taylor

12582: National Survey Evidence on Disasters and Relief: Risk Beliefs, Self-Interest, and Compassion

W Viscusi and Richard Zeckhauser

12581: Technology and Labor Regulations

Alberto Alesina and Joseph Zeira

12580: Losing our Marbles in the New Century? The Great Rebalancing in Historical Perspective

Christopher Meissner and Alan Taylor

12579: Testing the Theory of Trade Policy: Evidence from the Abrupt End of the Multifibre Arrangement

James Harrigan and Geoffrey Barrows

12578: Optimal Liability for Terrorism

Darius Lakdawalla and Eric Talley

12577: Intellectual Property and Marketing

Darius Lakdawalla, Tomas Philipson and Y. Richard Wang

12576: Commercial Policy in a Predatory World

James Anderson

12575: How to Advance Theory with Structural VARs: Use the Sims-Cogley-Nason Approach

Patrick Kehoe

12574: Understanding Instrumental Variables in Models with Essential Heterogeneity

James Heckman, Sergio Urzua and Edward Vytlacil

12573: The Control of Politicians in Divided Societies: The Politics of Fear

Gerard Padro i Miquel

12572: American Indian Mortality in the Late Nineteenth Century: The Impact of Federal Assimilation Policies on a Vulnerable Population

J. David Hacker and Michael Haines

12571: The Puzzle of the Antebellum Fertility Decline in the United States: New Evidence and Reconsideration

Michael Haines and J. David Hacker

12570: Behavioral Theories of the Business Cycle

Nir Jaimovich and Sergio Rebelo

12569: Inheritance and Saving

David Joulfaian

12568: Federal Tax Policy Towards Energy

Gilbert Metcalf

12567: Trade, Growth, and Convergence in a Dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin Model

Claustre Bajona and Timothy Kehoe

12566: Demographics in Dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin Models: Overlapping Generations Versus Infinitely Lived Consumers

Claustre Bajona and Timothy Kehoe

12565: Understanding South Africa's Economic Puzzles

Dani Rodrik

12564: Endogenous Sudden Stops in a Business Cycle Model with Collateral Constraints:A Fisherian Deflation of Tobin's Q

Enrique Mendoza

12563: Entry and Patenting in the Software Industry

Iain Cockburn and Megan MacGarvie

12562: Valuing New Goods in a Model with Complementarities: Online Newspapers

Matthew Gentzkow

12561: Do Television and Radio Destroy Social Capital? Evidence from Indonesian Villages

Benjamin Olken