NBER Working Papers

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30327: Independent Contracting, Self-Employment, and Gig Work: Evidence from California Tax Data

Annette Bernhardt, Christopher Campos, Allen Prohofsky, Aparna Ramesh and Jesse Rothstein

30326: The Political Economy of the Decline of Antitrust Enforcement in the United States

Filippo Lancieri, Eric A. Posner and Luigi Zingales

30325: Quality Regulation and Competition: Evidence from Pharmaceutical Markets

Juan Pablo Atal, José Ignacio Cuesta and Morten Sæthre

30324: China's Financial System and Economy: A Review

Zhiguo He and Wei Wei

30323: When the Kids Grow Up: Women's Employment and Earnings across the Family Cycle

Claudia Goldin, Sari Pekkala Kerr and Claudia Olivetti

30322: The Wage Curve After the Great Recession

David Blanchflower, Alex Bryson and Jackson Spurling

30321: Taxing Externalities: Revenue vs. Welfare Gains with an Application to U.S. Carbon Taxes

Matthew Kotchen

30320: Do Funding Agencies Select and Enable Risky Research: Evidence from ERC Using Novelty as a Proxy of Risk Taking

Reinhilde Veugelers, Jian Wang and Paula Stephan

30319: Origins of International Factor Structures

Zhengyang Jiang and Robert Richmond

30318: Non-Tariff Barriers in the U.S.-China Trade War

Tuo Chen, Chang-Tai Hsieh and Zheng Michael Song

30317: Globotics and Macroeconomics: Globalisation and Automation of the Service Sector

Richard Baldwin

30316: Fertility and Labor Market Responses to Reductions in Mortality

Sonia Bhalotra, Atheendar Venkataramani and Selma Walther

30315: Spending and Job-Finding Impacts of Expanded Unemployment Benefits: Evidence from Administrative Micro Data

Peter Ganong, Fiona E. Greig, Pascal J. Noel, Daniel M. Sullivan and Joseph Vavra

30314: Social Capital II: Determinants of Economic Connectedness

Raj Chetty, Matthew Jackson, Theresa Kuchler, Johannes Stroebel, Nathaniel Hendren, Robert B. Fluegge, Sara Gong, Federico Gonzalez, Armelle Grondin, Matthew Jacob, Drew Johnston, Martin Koenen, Eduardo Laguna-Muggenburg, Florian Mudekereza, Tom Rutter, Nicolaj Thor, Wilbur Townsend, Ruby Zhang, Mike Bailey, Pablo Barberá, Monica Bhole and Nils Wernerfelt

30313: Social Capital I: Measurement and Associations with Economic Mobility

Raj Chetty, Matthew Jackson, Theresa Kuchler, Johannes Stroebel, Nathaniel Hendren, Robert B. Fluegge, Sara Gong, Federico González, Armelle Grondin, Matthew Jacob, Drew Johnston, Martin Koenen, Eduardo Laguna-Muggenburg, Florian Mudekereza, Tom Rutter, Nicolaj Thor, Wilbur Townsend, Ruby Zhang, Mike Bailey, Pablo Barberá, Monica Bhole and Nils Wernerfelt

30312: The Impact of the Clean Air Act on Particulate Matter in the 1970s

Maureen Cropper, Nicholas Muller, Yongjoon Park and Victoria Perez-Zetune

30311: The Race Between Education, Technology, and Institutions

Jonathan Vogel

30310: Screening with Multitasking: Theory and Empirical Evidence from Teacher Tenure Reform

Michael Dinerstein and Isaac Opper

30309: Social Protection and Social Distancing During the Pandemic: Mobile Money Transfers in Ghana

Dean Karlan, Matt Lowe, Robert Osei, Isaac Osei-Akoto, Benjamin N. Roth and Christopher Udry

30308: Still Worth the Trip? School Busing Effects in Boston and New York

Joshua Angrist, Guthrie Gray-Lobe, Clemence M. Idoux and Parag Pathak

30307: Stigma in Welfare Programs

Pablo Celhay, Bruce Meyer and Nikolas Mittag

30306: Social Media and the Behavior of Politicians: Evidence from Facebook in Brazil

Pedro Bessone, Filipe Campante, Claudio Ferraz and Pedro Souza

30305: Macroeconomic Forecasting using Filtered Signals from a Stock Market Cross Section

Nicolas Chatelais, Arthur Stalla-Bourdillon and Menzie Chinn

30304: The Causal Effects of Youth Cigarette Addiction and Education

Rong Hai and James Heckman

30303: The Effect of Vaccine Mandates on Disease Spread: Evidence from College COVID-19 Mandates

Riley Acton, Wenjia Cao, Emily Cook, Scott Imberman and Michael Lovenheim

30302: Long Story Short: Omitted Variable Bias in Causal Machine Learning

Victor Chernozhukov, Carlos Cinelli, Whitney Newey, Amit Sharma and Vasilis Syrgkanis

30301: Bringing Them In or Pushing Them Out? The Labor Market Effects of Pro-cyclical Unemployment Assistance Changes

Gerard Domènech-Arumí and Silvia Vannutelli

30300: Precautionary Protectionism

Sharon Traiberman and Martin Rotemberg

30299: Covering Undocumented Immigrants: The Effects of a Large-Scale Prenatal Care Intervention

Sarah Miller, Laura Wherry and Gloria Aldana

30298: Labor Misallocation Across Firms and Regions

Sebastian Heise and Tommaso Porzio

30297: Policy Uncertainty in the Market for Coal Electricity: The Case of Air Toxics Standards

Gautam Gowrisankaran, Ashley Langer and Wendan Zhang

30296: Sovereign Debt and Economic Growth when Government is Myopic and Self-interested

Viral Acharya, Raghuram Rajan and Jack Shim

30295: Rise and Fall of Empires in the Industrial Era: A Story of Shifting Comparative Advantages

Roberto Bonfatti and A. Kerem Coşar

30294: The Distributional Impact of the Minimum Wage in the Short and Long Run

Erik Hurst, Patrick Kehoe, Elena Pastorino and Thomas Winberry

30293: First Foot Forward: A Two-Step Econometric Method for Parsing and Estimating the Impacts of Multiple Identities

Andrew Hanks, Kevin M. Kniffin, Xuechao Qian, Bo Wang and Bruce Weinberg

30292: How Hybrid Working From Home Works Out

Nicholas Bloom, Ruobing Han and James Liang

30291: Simple Tests for Selection: Learning More from Instrumental Variables

Dan Black, Joonhwi Joo, Robert LaLonde, Jeffrey Smith and Evan Taylor

30290: American Agriculture, Water Resources, and Climate Change

Gary Libecap and Ariel Dinar

30289: Banking on Transparency for the Poor: Experimental Evidence from India

Erica M. Field, Natalia Rigol, Charity Moore, Rohini Pande and Simone Schaner

30288: The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Firm Decisions

Saten Kumar, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Olivier Coibion

30287: Help Really Wanted? The Impact of Age Stereotypes in Job Ads on Applications from Older Workers

Ian Burn, Daniel Firoozi, Daniel Ladd and David Neumark

30286: Are Menthol Smokers Different? An Economic Perspective

Yu-Chun Cheng, Donald Kenkel, Alan Mathios and Hua Wang

30285: Were Small Businesses More Likely to Permanently Close in the Pandemic?

Robert Fairlie, Frank Fossen, Reid L. Johnsen and Gentian Droboniku

30284: World War II Blues: The Long–lasting Mental Health Effect of Childhood Trauma

Mevlude Akbulut-Yuksel, Erdal Tekin and Belgi Turan

30283: Adverse Selection as a Policy Instrument: Unraveling Climate Change

Steve Cicala, David Hemous and Morten G. Olsen

30282: The Impact of Climate Change on Mortality in the United States: Benefits and Costs of Adaptation

Olivier Deschenes

30281: Fear of Appreciation and Current Account Adjustment

Paul Bergin, Kyunghun Kim and Ju Hyun Pyun

30280: Natural Disasters and Municipal Bonds

Jun Kyung Auh, Jaewon Choi, Tatyana Deryugina and Tim Park

30279: Measuring Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture: An Equilibrium Perspective on Supply-Side Approaches

Christophe Gouel

30278: Pricing Power in Advertising Markets: Theory and Evidence

Matthew Gentzkow, Jesse Shapiro, Frank Yang and Ali Yurukoglu

30277: Central Bank Communication with the General Public: Promise or False Hope?

Alan Blinder, Michael Ehrmann, Jakob de Haan and David-Jan Jansen

30276: Blending Theory and Data: A Space Odyssey

Dave Donaldson

30275: College Costs, Financial Aid, and Student Decisions

Susan Dynarski, Lindsay C. Page and Judith Scott-Clayton

30274: The Effects of Teacher Quality on Adult Criminal Justice Contact

Evan K. Rose, Jonathan T. Schellenberg and Yotam Shem-Tov

30273: Digital Public Health Interventions at Scale: The Impact of Social Media Advertising on Beliefs and Outcomes Related to COVID Vaccines

Susan Athey, Kristen Grabarz, Michael Luca and Nils C. Wernerfelt

30272: Tertiarization Like China

Xilu Chen, Guangyu Pei, Zheng Michael Song and Fabrizio Zilibotti

30271: A Study of Bid-rigging in Procurement Auctions: Evidence from Indonesia, Georgia, Mongolia, Malta, and State of California

Kei Kawai, Jun Nakabayashi and Daichi Shimamoto

30270: Liquidity, Financial Centrality, and the Value of Key Players

Arun Chandrasekhar, Robert Townsend and Juan Pablo Xandri

30269: Heterogeneity in Disease Resistance and the Impact of Antibiotics in the US

Justin Cook and Jason Fletcher

30268: What Motivates Leaders to Invest in Nation-Building?

Paola Giuliano, Bryony Reich and Alessandro Riboni

30267: A New Interpretation of Productivity Growth Dynamics in the Pre-Pandemic and Pandemic Era U.S. Economy, 1950-2022

Robert Gordon and Hassan Sayed

30266: Firms and Unemployment Insurance Take-up

Marta Lachowska, Isaac Sorkin and Stephen Woodbury

30265: Fighting Climate Change: International Attitudes Toward Climate Policies

Antoine Dechezleprêtre, Adrien Fabre, Tobias Kruse, Bluebery Planterose, Ana Sanchez Chico and Stefanie Stantcheva

30264: New Pricing Models, Same Old Phillips Curves?

Adrien Auclert, Rodolfo D. Rigato, Matthew Rognlie and Ludwig Straub

30263: Carbon Pricing, Clean Electricity Standards, and Clean Electricity Subsidies on the Path to Zero Emissions

Severin Borenstein and Ryan Kellogg

30262: Confidence, Self-Selection and Bias in the Aggregate

Benjamin Enke, Thomas Graeber and Ryan Oprea

30261: New Evidence on the Demand for Advice within Retirement Plans

Jonathan Reuter and David P. Richardson

30260: Expectations and the Rate of Inflation

Iván Werning

30259: Ancestral Livelihoods and Moral Universalism: Evidence from Transhumant Pastoralist Societies

Etienne Le Rossignol and Sara Lowes

30258: The Real State: Inside the Congo's Traffic Police Agency

Raúl Sanchez de la Sierra, Kristof Titeca, Haoyang (Stan) Xie, Albert Malukisa Nkuku and Aimable Amani Lameke

30257: Aftermarket Frictions and the Cost of Off-Platform Options in Centralized Assignment Mechanisms

Adam Kapor, Mohit Karnani and Christopher Neilson

30256: A Luna-tic Stablecoin Crash

Harald Uhlig

30255: Misinformation, Consumer Risk Perceptions, and Markets: The Impact of an Information Shock on Vaping and Smoking Cessation

Lawrence Jin, Donald Kenkel, Michael Lovenheim, Alan Mathios and Hua Wang

30254: Financing Health Care Delivery

Jonathan Gruber

30253: A Portfolio Approach to Global Imbalances

Zhengyang Jiang, Robert Richmond and Tony Zhang

30252: Racial Inequality in the U.S. Unemployment Insurance System

Daphné Skandalis, Ioana Marinescu and Maxim N. Massenkoff

30251: The Spanish Mission Legacy on Native American Reservations

Lee Alston, Marie Duggan and Julio Alberto Ramos Pastrana

30250: Expecting Floods: Firm Entry, Employment, and Aggregate Implications

Ruixue Jia, Xiao Ma and Victoria Wenxin Xie

30249: Partisan Entrepreneurship

Joseph Engelberg, Jorge Guzman, Runjing Lu and William Mullins

30248: Another Day, Another Visit: Impact of Arkansas's Mandatory Waiting Period for Women Seeking an Abortion by Demographic Groups

Onur Altindag and Ted Joyce

30247: A New Way of Forecasting Recessions

Edward Leamer

30246: Short-Term Tax Cuts, Long-Term Stimulus

James Cloyne, Joseba Martinez, Haroon Mumtaz and Paolo Surico

30245: Malleability of Alcohol Consumption: Evidence from Migrants

Marit Hinnosaar and Elaine Liu

30244: Trade, Leakage, and the Design of a Carbon Tax

David Weisbach, Samuel Kortum, Michael Wang and Yujia Yao

30243: Looming Large or Seeming Small? Attitudes Towards Losses in a Representative Sample

Jonathan Chapman, Erik Snowberg, Stephanie W. Wang and Colin Camerer

30242: Ghosting the Tax Authority: Fake Firms and Tax Fraud

Paul Carrillo, Dave Donaldson, Dina Pomeranz and Monica Singhal

30241: Operating Hedge and Gross Profitability Premium

Leonid Kogan, Jun Li and Harold Zhang

30240: Global Supply Chain Pressures, International Trade, and Inflation

Julian di Giovanni, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Álvaro Silva and Muhammed A. Yildirim

30239: Minimum Wages and Labor Markets in the Twin Cities

Loukas Karabarbounis, Jeremy Lise and Anusha Nath

30238: Will the Developing World’s Growing Middle Class Support Low Carbon Policies?

Matthew Kahn and Somik Lall

30237: Intergenerational Transmission of Health at Birth: Fathers Matter Too!

Osea Giuntella, Giulia La Mattina and Climent Quintana-Domeque

30236: When Is Discrimination Unfair?

Peter Kuhn and Trevor T. Osaki

30235: Data and Welfare in Credit Markets

Mark Jansen, Fabian Nagel, Constantine Yannelis and Anthony Lee Zhang

30234: Common Fund Flows: Flow Hedging and Factor Pricing

Winston Dou, Leonid Kogan and Wei Wu

30233: Combating Cross-Border Externalities

Shiyi Chen, Joshua Graff Zivin, Huanhuan Wang and Jiaxin Xiong

30232: Attrition from Administrative Data: Problems and Solutions with an Application to Postsecondary Education

Andrew Foote and Kevin Stange

30231: The Value of Pharmacy Benefit Management

Casey Mulligan

30230: Acquisitions, Management, and Efficiency in Rwanda's Coffee Industry

Rocco Macchiavello and Ameet Morjaria

30229: Real-Time Inequality

Thomas Blanchet, Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman

30228: Producing Health: Measuring Value Added of Nursing Homes

Liran Einav, Amy Finkelstein and Neale Mahoney