NBER Working Papers

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24311: How Persistent Low Expected Returns Alter Optimal Life Cycle Saving, Investment, and Retirement Behavior

Vanya Horneff, Raimond Maurer and Olivia Mitchell

24310: Designing Dynamic Subsidies to Spur Adoption of New Technologies

Ashley Langer and Derek Lemoine

24309: Resources, Conflict, and Economic Development in Africa

Achyuta Adhvaryu, James Fenske, Gaurav Khanna and Anant Nyshadham

24308: Death by Pokémon GO: The Economic and Human Cost of Using Apps While Driving

Mara Faccio and John J. McConnell

24307: Strong Employers and Weak Employees: How Does Employer Concentration Affect Wages?

Efraim Benmelech, Nittai Bergman and Hyunseob Kim

24306: Sequential Bargaining in the Field: Evidence from Millions of Online Bargaining Interactions

Matthew Backus, Thomas Blake, Bradley Larsen and Steven Tadelis

24305: Heard it Through the Grapevine: Direct and Network Effects of a Tax Enforcement Field Experiment

William Boning, John Guyton, Ronald H. Hodge, II, Joel Slemrod and Ugo Troiano

24304: Who Pays in Pay for Performance? Evidence from Hospital Pricing

Michael Darden, Ian McCarthy and Eric Barrette

24303: Do Conditional Cash Transfers Improve Economic Outcomes in the Next Generation? Evidence from Mexico

Susan Parker and Tom Vogl

24302: Do Employee Spinoffs Learn Markets From Their Parents? Evidence From International Trade

Marc-Andreas Muendler and James Rauch

24301: The Technological Elements of Artificial Intelligence

Matt Taddy

24300: Making Big Changes: The Impact of Moves on Marriage among U.S. Army Personnel

Susan Carter and Abigail Wozniak

24299: Analyzing the Risk of Transporting Crude Oil by Rail

Charles Mason

24298: Collateral Damage

Gary Gorton and Toomas Laarits

24297: Do Proxies for Informed Trading Measure Informed Trading? Evidence from Illegal Insider Trades

Kenneth Ahern

24296: Intergenerational Spillovers in Disability Insurance

Gordon Dahl and Anne Gielen

24295: Natural Gas Price Elasticities and Optimal Cost Recovery Under Consumer Heterogeneity: Evidence from 300 million natural gas bills

Maximilian Auffhammer and Edward Rubin

24294: Earnings Test, Non-actuarial Adjustments and Flexible Retirement

Axel H. Börsch-Supan, Klaus Härtl and Duarte Semedo Leite

24293: Decision Fatigue and Heuristic Analyst Forecasts

David Hirshleifer, Yaron Levi, Ben Lourie and Siew Hong Teoh

24292: Using Online Prices for Measuring Real Consumption Across Countries

Alberto Cavallo, Walter Diewert, Robert Feenstra, Robert Inklaar and Marcel Timmer

24291: Ancient Origins of the Global Variation in Economic Preferences

Anke Becker, Benjamin Enke and Armin Falk

24290: Do Discrete Choice Approaches to Valuing Urban Amenities Yield Different Results Than Hedonic Models?

Paramita Sinha, Martha L. Caulkins and Maureen Cropper

24289: The Comparative Advantage of Medicare Advantage

Joseph Newhouse, Mary Beth Landrum, Mary Price, J. Michael McWilliams, John Hsu and Thomas McGuire

24288: Notice failure revisited: Evidence on the use of virtual patent marking

Gaétan de Rassenfosse

24287: Kaldor and Piketty’s Facts: The Rise of Monopoly Power in the United States

Gauti Eggertsson, Jacob Robbins and Ella Getz Wold

24286: International Capital Flow Pressures

Linda Goldberg and Signe Krogstrup

24285: Shift-Share Instruments and the Impact of Immigration

David Jaeger, Joakim Ruist and Jan Stuhler

24284: Human Judgment and AI Pricing

Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans and Avi Goldfarb

24283: Israel’s Immigration Story: Winners and Losers

Assaf Razin

24282: How Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Can Impact Market Design

Paul Milgrom and Steven Tadelis

24281: Social Transmission Bias and Investor Behavior

Bing Han, David Hirshleifer and Johan Walden

24280: Inequality and Aggregate Demand

Adrien Auclert and Matthew Rognlie

24279: The Right Type of Legislator: A Theory of Taxation and Representation

Andrea Mattozzi and Erik Snowberg

24278: Randomizing Religion: The Impact of Protestant Evangelism on Economic Outcomes

Gharad T. Bryan, James Choi and Dean Karlan

24277: Does E-Cigarette Advertising Encourage Adult Smokers to Quit?

Dhaval Dave, Daniel Dench, Michael Grossman, Donald Kenkel and Henry Saffer

24276: The Effects of Computers and Acquired Skills on Earnings, Employment and College Enrollment: Evidence from a Field Experiment and California UI Earnings Records

Robert Fairlie and Peter Riley Bahr

24275: Targeted Price Controls on Supermarket Products

Diego Aparicio and Alberto Cavallo

24274: The "End of Men" and Rise of Women in the High-Skilled Labor Market

Guido Matias Cortes, Nir Jaimovich and Henry E. Siu

24273: Quantitative Analysis of Multi-Party Tariff Negotiations

Kyle Bagwell, Robert W. Staiger and Ali Yurukoglu

24272: Debt Traps? Market Vendors and Moneylender Debt in India and the Philippines

Dean Karlan, Sendhil Mullainathan and Benjamin N. Roth

24271: Unpacking a Multi-Faceted Program to Build Sustainable Income for the Very Poor

Abhijit Banerjee, Dean Karlan, Robert Osei, Hannah Trachtman and Christopher Udry

24270: Why has Idiosyncratic Risk been Historically Low in Recent Years?

Söhnke Bartram, Gregory W. Brown and René M. Stulz

24269: Trade Creditors’ Information Advantage

Victoria Ivashina and Benjamin Iverson

24268: Moral Values and Voting

Benjamin Enke

24267: Targeting with In-kind Transfers: Evidence from Medicaid Home Care

Ethan Lieber and Lee Lockwood

24266: New Evidence on Cyclical Variation in Labor Costs in the U.S

Grace Gu and Eswar Prasad

24265: Eclipse of the Public Corporation or Eclipse of the Public Markets?

Craig Doidge, Kathleen M. Kahle, G. Karolyi and René M. Stulz

24264: Aspiration Adaptation in Resource-Constrained Environments

Sebastian Galiani, Paul Gertler and Raimundo Undurraga

24263: Household Time Use Among Older Couples: Evidence and Implications for Labor Supply Parameters

Richard Rogerson and Johanna Wallenius

24262: Stock Market Returns and Consumption

Marco Di Maggio, Amir Kermani and Kaveh Majlesi

24261: Pricing Assets in a Perpetual Youth Model

Roger Farmer

24260: The Effects of Fair Trade Certification: Evidence from Coffee Producers in Costa Rica

Raluca Dragusanu, Eduardo Montero and Nathan Nunn

24259: From the Bargaining Table to the Ballot Box: Political Effects of Right to Work Laws

James Feigenbaum, Alexander Hertel-Fernandez and Vanessa Williamson

24258: Are Interest Rates Really Low?

Daniel Feenberg, Clinton Tepper and Ivo Welch

24257: Saving and Dissaving with Hyperbolic Discounting

Dan Cao and Iván Werning

24256: Demographics and FDI: Lessons from China's One-Child Policy

John B. Donaldson, Christos Koulovatianos, Jian Li and Rajnish Mehra

24255: Effects of Copyrights on Science - Evidence from the US Book Republication Program

Barbara Biasi and Petra Moser

24254: AI and International Trade

Avi Goldfarb and Daniel Trefler

24253: Artificial Intelligence and Consumer Privacy

Ginger Zhe Jin

24252: The Anatomy of a Trade Collapse: The UK, 1929-33

Alan de Bromhead, Alan Fernihough, Markus Lampe and Kevin O'Rourke

24251: N-S Trade with Weak Institutions

James Anderson

24250: Exchange Traded Funds 101 For Economists

Martin Lettau and Ananth Madhavan

24249: Do Management Interventions Last? Evidence from India

Nicholas Bloom, Aprajit Mahajan, David McKenzie and John Roberts

24248: Do CCTs Improve Employment and Earnings in the Very Long-Term? Evidence from Mexico

Adriana Kugler and Ingrid Rojas

24247: Longevity, Education, and Income: How Large is the Triangle?

Hoyt Bleakley

24246: What do we know about the effects of Austerity?

Alberto Alesina, Carlo Favero and Francesco Giavazzi

24245: AI as the next GPT: a Political-Economy Perspective

Manuel Trajtenberg

24244: Unconventional Fiscal Policy

Francesco D’Acunto, Daniel Hoang and Michael Weber

24243: Prediction, Judgment and Complexity: A Theory of Decision Making and Artificial Intelligence

Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans and Avi Goldfarb

24242: Market Structure in Bitcoin Mining

June Ma, Joshua Gans and Rabee Tourky

24241: Financial Constraints, Institutions, and Foreign Ownership

Ron Alquist, Nicolas Berman, Rahul Mukherjee and Linda Tesar

24240: High-Priced Drugs in Medicare Part D: Diagnosis and Potential Prescription

Richard G. Frank and Richard Zeckhauser

24239: AI, Labor, Productivity and the Need for Firm-Level Data

Robert Seamans and Manav Raj

24238: Reconciling Results on Racial Differences in Police Shootings

Roland Fryer

24237: Signaling Safety

Roni Michaely, Stefano Rossi and Michael Weber

24236: Changing Business Dynamism and Productivity: Shocks vs. Responsiveness

Ryan Decker, John C. Haltiwanger, Ron Jarmin and Javier Miranda

24235: AI and Jobs: the role of demand

James Bessen

24234: The Macroeconomics of Rational Bubbles: A User's Guide

Alberto Martin and Jaume Ventura

24233: Ramsey Strikes Back: Optimal Commodity Taxes and Redistribution in the Presence of Salience Effects

Hunt Allcott, Benjamin Lockwood and Dmitry Taubinsky

24232: Censored Quantile Instrumental Variable Estimation with Stata

Victor Chernozhukov, Ivan Fernandez-Val, Sukjin Han and Amanda Kowalski

24231: The Impact of Health on Labor Market Outcomes: Experimental Evidence from MRFIT

Melvin Stephens, Jr. and Desmond Toohey

24230: Risks in China’s Financial System

Zheng Michael Song and Wei Xiong

24229: What Do Workplace Wellness Programs Do? Evidence from the Illinois Workplace Wellness Study

Damon Jones, David Molitor and Julian Reif

24228: Regulating Mismeasured Pollution: Implications of Firm Heterogeneity for Environmental Policy

Eva Lyubich, Joseph S. Shapiro and Reed Walker

24227: Intergenerational Effects of Incarceration

Manudeep Bhuller, Gordon Dahl, Katrine Løken and Magne Mogstad

24226: The Power of Working Longer

Gila Bronshtein, Jason Scott, John B. Shoven and Sita Slavov

24225: The Effect of Education on Health and Mortality: A Review of Experimental and Quasi-Experimental Evidence

Titus Galama, Adriana Lleras-Muney and Hans van Kippersluis

24224: Shadow Funding Costs: Measuring the Cost of Balance Sheet Constraints

Matthias Fleckenstein and Francis Longstaff

24223: Real Keynesian Models and Sticky Prices

Paul Beaudry and Franck Portier

24222: Liquidity Regimes and Optimal Dynamic Asset Allocation

Pierre Collin-Dufresne, Kent Daniel and Mehmet Saǧlam

24221: Financial Heterogeneity and the Investment Channel of Monetary Policy

Pablo Ottonello and Thomas Winberry

24220: Wage Dynamics and Returns to Unobserved Skill

Lance Lochner, Youngmin Park and Youngki Shin

24219: Children and Gender Inequality: Evidence from Denmark

Henrik Kleven, Camille Landais and Jakob Egholt Søgaard

24218: Prices or Quantities Dominate Banking and Borrowing

Martin Weitzman

24217: Sources of Displaced Workers’ Long-Term Earnings Losses

Marta Lachowska, Alexandre Mas and Stephen Woodbury

24216: Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics Using External Instruments

James H. Stock and Mark Watson

24215: Why Are Professors "Poorly Paid"?

Daniel S. Hamermesh

24214: Endogenous and Selective Service Choices After Airline Mergers

Sophia Ying Li, Joe Mazur, Yongjoon Park, James W. Roberts, Andrew Sweeting and Jun Zhang

24213: Corporate Credit Risk Premia

Antje Berndt, Rohan Douglas, Darrell Duffie and Mark Ferguson

24212: E-cigarettes and Adult Smoking

Henry Saffer, Daniel Dench, Dhaval Dave and Michael Grossman