NBER Working Papers

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35597: AI in a Fragmenting World

Barry Eichengreen, George Cui, Asmaa A. El-Ganainy, Yevgeniya Koriyenko, Elyad Shojaei, Li Zeng and Shihangyin Zhang

35596: The Effects of Ads on Beliefs and Implications for Consumer Search

Jean-Pierre H. Dubé, Ilya Morozov, Franklin She and Anna Tuchman

35595: Dynamic Effects of Trade

Benny Kleinman, Ernest Liu and Stephen Redding

35594: Idea Rents and Firm Growth

Timo Boppart, Peter J. Klenow, Reiko Laski and Huiyu Li

35593: More Frequent Than You Think: Revisiting Capital Structure Adjustment

Zhiguo He, Peter DeMarzo and Qiping Xu

35592: The Intrinsic Valuation of Biodiversity Loss

Adrien Bilal, Noémie Pinardon-Touati and Conor Walsh

35591: Fetal Pollution Exposure, Cognitive Ability, and Gender-specific Parental Investment

Xin Zhang, Yixuan Wang, Xingyi Hu and Xi Chen

35590: The Perils of Bilateral Sovereign Debt

Francisco Roldán and Cesar Sosa-Padilla

35589: Income Shocks and Intrahousehold Dynamics: Evidence from a Guaranteed Income Experiment

Elizabeth Rhodes, David E. Broockman, Eva Vivalt, Patrick K. Krause, Sarah Miller and Alexander Bartik

35588: AI Agents and Prompt Engineering in Econometric Coding

Sebastian Galiani, Federico Ariel López and Raul A. Sosa

35587: Property Taxes and Housing Allocation Under Financial Constraints

Joshua Coven, Sebastian Golder, Arpit Gupta and Abdoulaye Ndiaye

35586: Staged Access and Liability for Dual-Use Artificial Intelligence

Joshua Gans

35585: Cycles of Infertility: Intergenerational Transmission and the Role of Assisted Reproduction

Viktoria Falk, Andreas Madestam and Emilia Simeonova

35584: The Displacement Effects of Domestic Outsourcing

Mayara Felix and Michael B. Wong

35583: Spending to Save: The Subscription Model for Eradicating Hepatitis C in Louisiana

Kevin Callison, Rena Conti, Jonathan Gruber and Jacob Wallace

35582: Immigrant Earnings Assimilation, 1981–2021

Randall Akee, Jimmy Chin and Daniel L. Crown

35581: How Steep is the Phillips Curve in Developing Economies? A Sufficient Statistics Approach and Estimates for India

Juan Herreño, Noémie Pinardon-Touati and Malte Thie

35580: Cautious Careers: Job Mobility under Incomplete Markets

Alex Clymo, Piotr Denderski, Yusuf Mercan and Benjamin Schoefer

35579: Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks, Bonds (and Options), Redux

Zhongtian Chen, Nikolai Roussanov, Xiaoliang Wang and Dongchen Zou

35578: Reconstructing a Century of U.S. Corporate Bonds: Credit Risk in Historical Perspective

Mohammad Ghaderi, Sébastien Plante, Nikolai Roussanov and Sang Byung Seo

35577: The Value Gap: Europe Cannot Scale

Bo Becker, Efraim Benmelech and João Monteiro

35576: Do Children's Genes Evoke Educational Expectations? Direct Genetic Effects on Parents' and Teachers' College Encouragement

Philipp Dierker and Dalton Conley

35575: Observability and Social Interactions in Consumption

Tullio Jappelli and Luigi Pistaferri

35574: AI Financial Advice: Supply, Demand, and Life Cycle Implications

Taha Choukhmane, Tim de Silva, Weidong Lin and Matthew Akuzawa

35573: Balancing Growth in a Warming World

Adrien Bilal, Thibault Ingrand and Diego Känzig

35572: A Currency Premium Puzzle

Tarek Hassan, Thomas Mertens and Jingye Wang

35571: Winning is Contagious: Social Learning and the Dynamics of Union Support

Ellora Derenoncourt, Arindrajit Dube, Suresh Naidu, Heather Sarsons and Niharika Singh

35570: Robust Signal Maximization in Spillover Experiments

Kirill Borusyak, Peter Hull and Evan M. Munro

35569: Fortunate Sons: Elite Political Selection in American History

James Feigenbaum, Andrew B. Hall, Daniel M. Thompson and Jesse Yoder

35568: The Economics of Civil Service Protections

Guo Xu

35567: The Value of Behavioral Policies

John List, Matthias Rodemeier, Sutanuka Roy and Gregory K. Sun

35566: Childhood Cognitive and Behavioral Impairments and Adult Health

Hope Corman, Kelly Noonan and Nancy Reichman

35565: Common Ownership and Collusion

Vincent Abraham, Florian Ederer and Catarina Marvao

35564: Improving Financial Literacy: From Corporate Finance to Personal Finance

Annamaria Lusardi

35563: Incomplete Information and Self-Fulfilling Inflation Dynamics—Lucas meets Keynes

Jess Benhabib, Pengfei Wang and Yi Wen

35562: Monetary Policy in Mandarin Capitalism

Jeffery (Jinfan) Chang and Wei Xiong

35561: The Anatomy of Tariff Pass-through into Consumer Prices

Mary Amiti, Sebastian Heise and David Weinstein

35560: Long-Run Effects of H-1B Immigration on the U.S. Economy

Ran Abramitzky, Leah Boustan, Ahmet Gulek and Jens Hainmueller

35559: Replaceable but Employed: Automation and the Meaning of Work

Joshua Gans

35558: Unpacking Treatment Effect Heterogeneity in a Large-Scale Dropout-Prevention Experiment

Thomas Dee, Chloe Gibbs, Rebecca Margolit-Chan, Lillian Morrell and James Sullivan

35557: Demand for Safety in the Crypto Ecosystem

Murillo Campello, Angela Gallo, Lira Mota and Tammaro Terracciano

35556: Meritocracy and the Networks It Forged: China’s Imperial Examination

Ying Bai and Ruixue Jia

35555: The United States and Its Creditors: Assessing Foreign Demand for U.S. Assets

Anusha Chari and Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti

35554: A Theory of Firm Wage Dynamics

Marc de la Barrera and Masao Fukui

35553: Sharing the Burden: The Impacts of Pharmacy Sector Reforms on the Labor Market for Pharmacists in Portugal

David Card, Ana Rute Cardoso and Pedro Luis Silva

35552: The Equilibrium Impact of Credit Frictions: Evidence from Default Risk Using Firm-Level Data

Timothy Besley, Peter John Lambert, Isabelle A. Michalski-Roland and John van Reenen

35551: Chinese Sputnik Moments?

Josh Lerner, Namrata Narain, Dimitris Papanikolaou, Amit Seru and Zunda Winston Xu

35550: Ambiguous Attribution: Theory and Evidence

Ricardo Alonso, Monica Martinez-Bravo, Gerard Padró I Miquel, Carlos Sanz and Silvia Vannutelli

35549: Selecting Innovation Funding Mechanisms: A Framework for Policymakers

Matthew S. Clancy, Matthew Esche, Siddhartha Haria, Claire T. McMahon, Christopher Snyder and Caleb Watney

35548: Reserves and the Buyer of Last Resort

Frédéric Boissay and Harald Uhlig

35547: Designing Around Selection: Identification and Estimation Under Multi-Dimensional Unobserved Heterogeneity

Brent R. Hickman, John List, Ian Muir and Gregory K. Sun

35546: Time Travel on Professional Profiles

Nicholas Bloom, Gideon Moore, Lisa Simon and Caelan Wilkie-Rogers

35545: Detecting Critical Junctures as They Unfold: Foundations, Measurement, and Applications from 120 Years of Reporting

Michael Callen, Gregory Levy, Saipremnath Muthukumaran, Jonathan L. Weigel and Noam Yuchtman

35544: Two Selection Problems, One Bias Term: Experimental Sign-Up Is Treatment Choice in Disguise

John List

35543: Tying Incentives to Information: Diagnosis-Contingent Contracts and Biased Beliefs in Healthcare

Maria Dieci, Paul Gertler, Jonathan Kolstad and Carlos Paramo

35542: Winners and Losers: Competition, Creative Destruction, and Labor Income Risk

Brice C. Green, Leonid Kogan, Dimitris Papanikolaou and Lawrence Schmidt

35541: Financial Interdependence and Currency Internationalization

Zhengyang Jiang

35540: Predictive Risk Scores in the Public Sector: Experimental Evidence from Child-Protection Investigations

E. Jason Baron, Arkadev Ghosh and Richard Lombardo

35539: The China Backlash: Quantifying the Narrative Discourse on China

Mert Geyiktepe and Dani Rodrik

35538: Cognitive Limitations and Long-Term Care Use in the Netherlands: Evidence from the Lifelines Cohort Study

Gaia Bagnasco, Pieter Bakx, Stijn Coremans and Bram Wouterse

35537: Effects of Lottery Incentives for Influenza Vaccination: Evidence from a Large-Scale Randomized Trial and Causal Forest Analysis

Kelsey Moran, Gail M. Rosenbaum, Amir Goren, Michelle N. Meyer, Christopher F. Chabris and Joseph J. Doyle

35536: Does Progressivity Raise Tax Capacity? Experimental Evidence from the D.R. Congo

Gabriel Tourek, Arthur Laroche, Augustin Bergeron, Joana Naritomi, Jonathan L. Weigel and Marina Mavungu Ngoma

35535: The Scientific Return of Biodiversity Conservation: Evidence from Fishing Bans Along the Yangtze River

Minhao Chen, Lin Cong, Haoyu Gao, G. Karolyi and Hui Wang

35534: Personal Holding Companies, Tax Progressivity, and Inequality

Marius A. K. Ring, David G. Seim and Gabriel Zucman

35533: Early Life Healthcare Access and Later-life Mortality: Evidence Using Openings of County Health Departments

Hamid Noghanibehambari and Jason Fletcher

35532: The Confucian Fertility Paradox: Education Competition and Ultra-Low Fertility in East Asia

Hanming Fang and Chang Liu

35531: Elite Capture, Meritocracy and Social Stability: Evidence from the Chinese Imperial Examinations

Jingjing Chen, Jianlei Han, Shing-Yi Wang and Yongxiang Wang

35530: A Demand-Side Alternative to Renewable Curtailment: Natural Field Experimental Evidence from Two Countries

Daniel Lopez Garcia, Robert Metcalfe, Andrew R. Schein and Yixin Sun

35529: Temperature Fluctuations and Economic Conditions: Evidence from Weekly U.S. Data

Kimberly Berg, Chadwick Curtis and Nelson Mark

35528: Beliefs That Predict Returns and Beliefs That Attract Flows: Policy Insights and Sentiment Catering in Mutual Funds

Zhenyu Gao, Wei Xiong and Jian Yuan

35527: From Field to Firm: College Sports and Early-Stage Career Choice

Paul Gompers, George Hu, Will Levinson and Sachin Srivastava

35526: Relating Cognitive Skills and Personality Traits to Economic Preferences: Decision-Making under Cognitive Shocks and Guessing

Carlos Chavez, Shuaizhang Feng, James Heckman and Zhe Yang

35525: Evidence of How Electronic Reporting and Automated Auditing Affects Regulatory Compliance and Environmental Performance

Wayne Gray, Ron Shadbegian and Ann Wolverton

35524: The Welfare Effects of Conditioning the Potential Duration of UI Benefits on Prior Work History

Leonard Goff and Simon Quach

35523: Immigration and Macroeconomic Outcomes in OECD Countries

Gaetano Basso, Mitali R. Mathur and Giovanni Peri

35522: Spillover Effects in Complementary Markets: A Study of the Indian Cell Phone and Wireless Service Markets

Chirantan Chatterjee, Ying Fan and Debi Prasad Mohapatra

35521: Profits and Social Impacts: Complements vs. Tradeoffs for Lenders in Three Countries

Susan Athey, Bruno Fava, Dean Karlan, Adam Osman and Jonathan Zinman

35520: Retail Betting Markets

Scott Baker, Justin Balthrop, Mark J. Johnson, Jason Kotter and Kevin Pisciotta

35519: Counterproductive Sustainable Investing: The Impact Elasticity of Brown and Green Firms

Samuel M. Hartzmark and Kelly Shue

35518: Equity as Tribute: The Market for Passive State Equity

Joshua Gans

35517: The Effects of U.S. Public R&D on Global Growth

Gustavo De Souza, Andrew Fieldhouse, Karel Mertens, Ishan B. Nath and Valerie Ramey

35516: The Price and Distributional Impact of Flood Risk Disclosure: Evidence from US Housing Platforms

Stephen B. Billings, Sophie Calder-Wang and Weiling Liu

35515: Beyond Price: Rights Trading in Strategic Factor Markets

Anparasan Mahalingam and Matthew Higgins

35514: Investing in Mothers? The Long-Run Impact of a Universal Child Care Program on Maternal Work and Income

Michael Baker, Jonathan Gruber and Kevin Milligan

35513: Industry Distress Anomaly

Hui Chen, Winston Dou, Hongye Guo and Yan Ji

35512: The Environmental Costs of Sanctions: Flaring and Venting in Venezuela

Michele Fioretti, Kavanaugh FitzPatrick and Alessandro Iaria

35511: Information and Macroeconomic Expectations: Global Evidence

Francesco D’Acunto and Michael Weber

35510: Who is Afraid of Eurobonds?

Francesco Bianchi, Qingyuan Fang, Leonardo Melosi and Anna Rogantini Picco

35509: Trading Off Openness: Economic Information and Immigration Policy Preferences

Cristina Cattaneo, Daniela Grieco, Nicola Lacetera and Mario Macis

35508: Self-Fulfilling Credit Scores

Victor Duarte and Julia Fonseca

35507: Global Pension Asset Allocations and Debt Markets

Ding Ding, Xiang Fang, Bryan Hardy and Karen Lewis

35506: Economic Models of Identity Formation and Cultural Transmission

Alberto Bisin and Thierry Verdier

35505: Global Financial Transparency and Offshore Wealth Accumulation

Annette Alstadsæter, Niels Johannesen, Ségal Le Guern Herry and Gabriel Zucman

35504: Bank Runs With and Without Bank Failure

Sergio A. Correia, Stephan Luck and Emil Verner

35503: Who Wants to Break Up Big Firms? Harm, Fairness, and the Demand for Antitrust

Ricardo Perez-Truglia and Jeffrey Yusof

35502: Physician Learning and Forgetting: Evidence from the US Military

Trevor Fitzgerald, Atul Gupta and Stephen D. Schwab

35501: Human Capital in Venture Capital: Evidence From 100,000 Venture Capitalists

Blake Jackson and Ilya Strebulaev

35500: Volatility Disagreement in the Options Market

Turan G. Bali, Bryan T. Kelly and Mathis Mörke

35499: Spreading Out Across Expanding Idea Space

Ina Ganguli, Jeffrey Lin, Vitaly Meursault and Nicholas Reynolds

35498: Optimal Currency Strategies Under Deviations From Interest Parity

Luis Viceira and Sally Shen