NBER Working Papers

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18261: Social Support Substitution and the Earnings Rebound: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity in Disability Insurance Reform

Lex Borghans, Anne Gielen and Erzo Luttmer

18260: The Connection between Imported Intermediate Inputs and Exports: Evidence from Chinese Firms

Ling Feng, Zhiyuan Li and Deborah Swenson

18259: The Anatomy of French Production Hierarchies

Lorenzo Caliendo, Ferdinando Monte and Esteban Rossi-Hansberg

18258: Estimating Second Order Probability Beliefs from Subjective Survival Data

Peter Hudomiet and Robert Willis

18257: Cycles of Distrust: An Economic Model

Daron Acemoglu and Alexander Wolitzky

18256: FX Counterparty Risk and Trading Activity in Currency Forward and Futures Markets

Richard M. Levich

18255: Does Seeing the Doctor More Often Keep You Out of the Hospital?

Robert Kaestner and Anthony T. Lo Sasso

18254: The Role of Federal and State Dependent Coverage Eligibility Policies on the Health Insurance Status of Young Adults

Joel C. Cantor, Alan C. Monheit, Derek DeLia and Kristen Lloyd

18253: Estimating the Effects of Friendship Networks on Health Behaviors of Adolescents

Jason Fletcher and Stephen Ross

18252: Log Odds and Ends

Edward Norton

18251: Market Liquidity -- Theory and Empirical Evidence

Dimitri Vayanos and Jiang Wang

18250: Clusters, Convergence, and Economic Performance

Mercedes Delgado, Michael E. Porter and Scott Stern

18249: The Determinants of National Competitiveness

Mercedes Delgado, Christian Ketels, Michael E. Porter and Scott Stern

18248: Mental Accounting and Consumer Choice: Evidence from Commodity Price Shocks

Justine Hastings and Jesse Shapiro

18247: Econometric Analysis of Present Value Models When the Discount Factor Is near One

Kenneth West

18246: Carry-Along Trade

Andrew Bernard, Emily Blanchard, Ilke Van Beveren and Hylke Vandenbussche

18245: Really Uncertain Business Cycles

Nicholas Bloom, Max Floetotto, Nir Jaimovich, Itay Saporta-Eksten and Stephen Terry

18244: Urban Public Finance

Edward Glaeser

18243: Market Size, Division of Labor, and Firm Productivity

Thomas Chaney and Ralph Ossa

18242: Dividends as Reference Points: A Behavioral Signaling Approach

Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler

18241: Understanding Peer Effects in Financial Decisions: Evidence from a Field Experiment

Leonardo Bursztyn, Florian Ederer, Bruno Ferman and Noam Yuchtman

18240: Trade in Intermediate Inputs and Business Cycle Comovement

Robert Johnson

18239: Testing for Racial Prejudice in the Parole Board Release Process: Theory and Evidence

Shamena Anwar and Hanming Fang

18238: The Effect of an Increase in Autism Prevalence on the Demand for Auxiliary Healthcare Workers: Evidence from California

Dhaval Dave and Jose Fernandez

18237: Enhancing the Efficacy of Teacher Incentives through Loss Aversion: A Field Experiment

Roland Fryer, Steven Levitt, John List and Sally Sadoff

18236: Back to the Future of Green Powered Economies

Juan Moreno-Cruz and M. Scott Taylor

18235: Pharmaceutical Innovation and Longevity Growth in 30 Developing and High-income Countries, 2000-2009

Frank Lichtenberg

18234: Competition and Ideological Diversity: Historical Evidence from US Newspapers

Matthew Gentzkow, Jesse Shapiro and Michael Sinkinson

18233: Are Recessions Good for Your Health Behaviors? Impacts of the Economic Crisis in Iceland

Tinna Laufey Ásgeirsdóttir, Hope Corman, Kelly Noonan, Þórhildur Ólafsdóttir and Nancy E. Reichman

18232: Using Differences in Knowledge Across Neighborhoods to Uncover the Impacts of the EITC on Earnings

Raj Chetty, John Friedman and Emmanuel Saez

18231: The Long of It: Odds that Investor Sentiment Spuriously Predicts Anomaly Returns

Robert Stambaugh, Jianfeng Yu and Yu Yuan

18230: Tipping Points and Ambiguity in the Economics of Climate Change

Derek Lemoine and Christian Traeger

18229: Health and Work at Older Ages: Using Mortality to Assess the Capacity to Work across Countries

Kevin Milligan and David Wise

18228: Redistributive Taxation in the Roy Model

Casey Rothschild and Florian Scheuer

18227: Overseas Deployment, Combat Exposure, and Well-Being in the 2010 National Survey of Veterans

Ryan Edwards

18226: Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV and Reproductive Behavior in Zambia

Nicholas Wilson

18225: How Inflation Affects Macroeconomic Performance: An Agent-Based Computational Investigation

Quamrul Ashraf, Boris Gershman and Peter Howitt

18224: Pre-colonial Ethnic Institutions and Contemporary African Development

Stelios Michalopoulos and Elias Papaioannou

18223: Pegs, Downward Wage Rigidity, and Unemployment: The Role of Financial Structure

Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe and Martín Uribe

18222: Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting

Erik Snowberg, Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz

18221: The Spread of Manufacturing to the Poor Periphery 1870---2007

Agustín Bénétrix, Kevin O'Rourke and Jeffrey Williamson

18220: Matching Contributions and Savings Outcomes: A Behavioral Economics Perspective

Brigitte Madrian

18219: Optimal Holdings of International Reserves: Self-Insurance against Sudden Stop

Guillermo Calvo, Alejandro Izquierdo and Rudy Loo-Kung

18218: Unions in a Frictional Labor Market

Per Krusell and Leena Rudanko

18217: Inefficient Investment Waves

Zhiguo He and Péter Kondor

18216: Adolescent Depression and Adult Labor Market Outcomes

Jason Fletcher

18215: Determinacy, Learnability, Plausibility, and the Role of Money in New Keynesian Models

Bennett McCallum

18214: Facing the Climate Change Challenge in a Global Economy

Lee Branstetter and William Pizer

18213: Individual Price Adjustment along the Extensive Margin

Etienne Gagnon, David Lopez-Salido and Nicolas Vincent

18212: Projection Bias in the Car and Housing Markets

Meghan R. Busse, Devin Pope, Jaren Pope and Jorge Silva-Risso

18211: Target Revaluation after Failed Takeover Attempts – Cash versus Stock

Ulrike Malmendier, Marcus Opp and Farzad Saidi

18210: When Does It Pay to Delay Social Security? The Impact of Mortality, Interest Rates, and Program Rules

John B. Shoven and Sita Slavov

18209: Global Banks and Crisis Transmission

Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Elias Papaioannou and Fabrizio Perri

18208: Boarding a Sinking Ship? An Investigation of Job Applications to Distressed Firms

Jennifer Brown and David A. Matsa

18207: Selection and Market Reallocation: Productivity Gains from Multinational Production

Laura Alfaro and Maggie Chen

18206: Income, the Earned Income Tax Credit, and Infant Health

Hilary Hoynes, Douglas Miller and David Simon

18205: The Climate Policy Dilemma

Robert Pindyck

18204: Choosing Size of Government Under Ambiguity: Infrastructure Spending and Income Taxation

Charles Manski

18203: Managing Licensing in a Market for Technology

Ashish Arora, Andrea Fosfuri and Thomas Roende

18202: The Need for (long) Chains in Kidney Exchange

Itai Ashlagi, David Gamarnik, Michael A. Rees and Alvin Roth

18201: Evaluating Student Outcomes at For-Profit Colleges

Kevin Lang and Russell Weinstein

18200: Effects of Federal Policy to Insure Young Adults: Evidence from the 2010 Affordable Care Act Dependent Coverage Mandate

Yaa Akosa Antwi, Asako S. Moriya and Kosali Simon

18199: Dealing with the Trilemma: Optimal Capital Controls with Fixed Exchange Rates

Emmanuel Farhi and Iván Werning

18198: Peer Effects in Program Participation

Gordon Dahl, Katrine Løken and Magne Mogstad

18197: Impact of Bilingual Education Programs on Limited English Proficient Students and Their Peers: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from Texas

Aimee Chin, N. Meltem Daysal and Scott Imberman

18196: The Benefits of College Athletic Success: An Application of the Propensity Score Design with Instrumental Variables

Michael Anderson

18195: The Economics of Options-Implied Inflation Probability Density Functions

Yuriy Kitsul and Jonathan Wright

18194: Deep Recessions, Fast Recoveries, and Financial Crises: Evidence from the American Record

Michael Bordo and Joseph Haubrich

18193: The Effect of Trade and Migration on Income

Francesc Ortega and Giovanni Peri

18192: Has Surface Water Quality Improved Since the Clean Water Act?

V. Smith and Carlos Valcarcel Wolloh

18191: Trade Wedges, Inventories, and International Business Cycles

George Alessandria, Joseph Kaboski and Virgiliu Midrigan

18190: Is the FHA Creating Sustainable Homeownership?

Andrew Caplin, Anna Cororaton and Joseph Tracy

18189: The Returns to Education in China: Evidence from the 1986 Compulsory Education Law

Hai Fang, Karen Eggleston, John Rizzo, Scott Rozelle and Richard Zeckhauser

18188: A Spatial Knowledge Economy

Donald Davis and Jonathan Dingel

18187: Stand Your Ground Laws, Homicides, and Injuries

Chandler McClellan and Erdal Tekin

18186: Fragmentation and Trade in Value Added over Four Decades

Robert Johnson and Guillermo Noguera

18185: When Educators Are the Learners: Private Contracting by Public Schools

Silke Forbes and Nora Gordon

18184: Measuring Managerial Skill in the Mutual Fund Industry

Jonathan B. Berk and Jules van Binsbergen

18183: The Effects of School Libraries on Language Skills: Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial in India

Evan Borkum, Fang He and Leigh Linden

18182: Dynamic Olley-Pakes Productivity Decomposition with Entry and Exit

Marc Melitz and Sašo Polanec

18181: Continuous-Time Linear Models

John Cochrane

18180: Behavioral Economics and the Demand for Alcohol: Results from the NLSY97

Henry Saffer, Dhaval Dave and Michael Grossman

18179: Innovating Standards Through Informal Consortia: The Case of Wireless Telecommunications

Henry Delcamp and Aija Leiponen

18178: Robust Comparative Statics in Large Dynamic Economies

Daron Acemoglu and Martin Jensen

18177: Finding Eldorado: Slavery and Long-run Development in Colombia

Daron Acemoglu, Camilo García-Jimeno and James Robinson

18176: Income inequality, tax base and sovereign spreads

Joshua Aizenman and Yothin Jinjarak

18175: Overcoming the Fear of Free Falling: Monetary Policy Graduation in Emerging Markets

Carlos Vegh and Guillermo Vuletin

18174: Money Doctors

Nicola Gennaioli, Andrei Shleifer and Robert Vishny

18173: Competition Among University Endowments

William Goetzmann and Sharon Oster

18172: Moral Hazard and Claims Deterrence in Private Disability Insurance

David Autor, Mark Duggan and Jonathan Gruber

18171: An Alternative Framework for Empirically Measuring the Size of Counterfeit Markets

Rosalie Pacula, Srikanth Kadiyala, Priscillia Hunt and Alessandro Malchiodi

18170: Innocent Bystanders? Monetary Policy and Inequality in the U.S

Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Lorenz Kueng and John Silvia

18169: Tail Risk in Momentum Strategy Returns

Kent Daniel, Ravi Jagannathan and Soohun Kim

18168: Unobserved Heterogeneity in Matching Games with an Application to Venture Capital

Jeremy Fox, David H. Hsu and Chenyu Yang

18167: Collective Intelligence and Neutral Point of View: The Case of Wikipedia

Shane Greenstein and Feng Zhu

18166: Plan Selection in Medicare Part D: Evidence from Administrative Data

Florian Heiss, Adam Leive, Daniel McFadden and Joachim Winter

18165: The Behavioralist Goes to School: Leveraging Behavioral Economics to Improve Educational Performance

Steven Levitt, John List, Susanne Neckermann and Sally Sadoff

18164: Do Newspapers Serve the State? Incumbent Party Influence on the US Press, 1869-1928

Matthew Gentzkow, Nathan Petek, Jesse Shapiro and Michael Sinkinson

18163: Organizing the Global Value Chain

Pol Antras and Davin Chor

18162: The European Origins of Economic Development

William Easterly and Ross Levine