NBER Working Papers

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25041: The Long-Term Consequences of Having Fewer Children in Old Age: Evidence from China’s “Later, Longer, Fewer” Campaign

Yi Chen and Hanming Fang

25040: Leverage-Induced Fire Sales and Stock Market Crashes

Jiangze Bian, Zhiguo He, Kelly Shue and Hao Zhou

25039: Global Trends in Interest Rates

Marco Del Negro, Domenico Giannone, Marc Giannoni and Andrea Tambalotti

25038: An Anatomy of U.S. Firms Seeking Trademark Registration

Emin Dinlersoz, Nathan Goldschlag, Amanda Fila and Nikolas Zolas

25037: A Test of Supply-side Explanations of Geographic Variation in Health Care Use

Kevin Callison, Robert Kaestner and Jason Ward

25036: When Studying and Nudging Don’t Go as Planned: Unsuccessful Attempts to Help Traditional and Online College Students

Philip Oreopoulos, Richard Patterson, Uros Petronijevic and Nolan Pope

25035: Do Equal Employment Opportunity Statements Backfire? Evidence From A Natural Field Experiment On Job-Entry Decisions

Andreas Leibbrandt and John List

25034: Peer Advice on Financial Decisions: A case of the blind leading the blind?

Sandro Ambuehl, B. Douglas Bernheim, Fulya Ersoy and Donna Harris

25033: Policy Experimentation, Redistribution and Voting Rules

T. Renee Bowen and Vincent Anesi

25032: Non-Monetary News in Central Bank Communication

Anna Cieslak and Andreas Schrimpf

25031: Rare Disasters, Financial Development, and Sovereign Debt

Sergio Rebelo, Neng Wang and Jinqiang Yang

25030: Understanding Joint Retirement

Pierre-Carl Michaud, Arthur van Soest and Luc Bissonnette

25029: Eliminating the Pass-Through: Towards FDI Statistics that Better Capture the Financial and Economic Linkages between Countries

Maria Borga and Cecilia Caliandro

25028: Nevertheless She Persisted? Gender Peer Effects in Doctoral STEM Programs

Valerie Bostwick and Bruce Weinberg

25027: Public Health Efforts and the Decline in Urban Mortality

D. Mark Anderson, Kerwin Kofi Charles and Daniel Rees

25026: Insurance Contracts when Individuals “Greatly Value” Certainty: Results from a Field Experiment in Burkina Faso

Elena Serfilippi, Michael Carter and Catherine Guirkinger

25025: Integrability and Generalized Separability

Thibault Fally

25024: Deduction Dilemmas: The Taiwan Assignment Mechanism

Umut Dur, Parag Pathak, Fei Song and Tayfun Sönmez

25023: Do Neighborhoods Affect Credit Market Decisions of Low-Income Borrowers? Evidence from the Moving to Opportunity Experiment

Sarah Miller and Cindy K. Soo

25022: Skill versus Voice in Local Development

Katherine Casey, Rachel Glennerster, Edward Miguel and Maarten Voors

25021: The Effects of Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates

Atsushi Inoue and Barbara Rossi

25020: The Intertemporal Keynesian Cross

Adrien Auclert, Matthew Rognlie and Ludwig Straub

25019: What Matters to Individual Investors? Evidence from the Horse’s Mouth

James Choi and Adriana Z. Robertson

25018: Difference-in-Differences with Variation in Treatment Timing

Andrew Goodman-Bacon

25017: Medicare Payment to Skilled Nursing Facilities: The Consequences of the Three-Day Rule

Ginger Zhe Jin, Ajin Lee and Susan Feng Lu

25016: Missing Events in Event Studies: Identifying the Effects of Partially-Measured News Surprises

Refet Gürkaynak, Burçin Kısacıkoğlu and Jonathan Wright

25015: Do Digital Platforms Reduce Moral Hazard? The Case of Uber and Taxis

Meng Liu, Erik Brynjolfsson and Jason Dowlatabadi

25014: Dynamic Corrective Taxes with Time-Varying Salience

Ben Gilbert and Joshua Graff Zivin

25013: The Effect of Own-Gender Juries on Conviction Rates

Mark Hoekstra and Brittany Street

25012: Fiscal Space and Government-Spending & Tax-Rate Cyclicality Patterns: A Cross-Country Comparison, 1960-2016

Joshua Aizenman, Yothin Jinjarak, Hien Thi Kim Nguyen and Donghyun Park

25011: International Spillovers and Bailouts

Marina Azzimonti and Vincenzo Quadrini

25010: Trade and Immigration, 1870-2010

David Jacks and John Tang

25009: The Life Expectancy of Older Couples And Surviving Spouses

Janice Compton and Robert Pollak

25008: Estimating the Consequences of Climate Change from Variation in Weather

Derek Lemoine

25007: FinTech in Sub-Saharan Africa: What Has Worked Well, and What Hasn't

David Yermack

25006: The Right Stuff? Personality and Entrepreneurship

Barton Hamilton, Nicholas Papageorge and Nidhi Pande

25005: Employer Credit Checks: Poverty Traps versus Matching Efficiency

P. Dean Corbae and Andy Glover

25004: Why Have Negative Nominal Interest Rates Had Such a Small Effect on Bank Performance? Cross Country Evidence

Jose Lopez, Andrew Rose and Mark Spiegel

25003: Transitions From Career Employment Among Public- and Private-Sector Workers

Joseph Quinn, Kevin Cahill and Michael Giandrea

25002: Dynamics and Efficiency in Decentralized Online Auction Markets

Kenneth Hendricks and Alan Sorensen

25001: On the Effects of Linking Voluntary Cap-and-Trade Systems for CO2 Emissions

Martin Weitzman and Bjart Holtsmark

25000: The Intergenerational Transmission of Human Capital: Evidence from the Golden Age of Upward Mobility

David Card, Ciprian Domnisoru and Lowell Taylor

24999: The Long Term Impacts of Grants on Poverty: 9-year Evidence From Uganda's Youth Opportunities Program

Christopher Blattman, Nathan Fiala and Sebastian Martinez

24998: For Richer, for Poorer: Bankers' Liability and Risk-taking in New England, 1867-1880

Peter Koudijs, Laura Salisbury and Gurpal Sran

24997: Quasi-Experimental Shift-Share Research Designs

Kirill Borusyak, Peter Hull and Xavier Jaravel

24996: Subways and Urban Growth: Evidence from Earth

Marco Gonzalez-Navarro and Matthew Turner

24995: Long-term Changes in Married Couples' Labor Supply and Taxes: Evidence from the US and Europe Since the 1980s

Alexander Bick, Bettina Brüggemann, Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln and Hannah Paule-Paludkiewicz

24994: I Don't Know

Matthew Backus and Andrew Little

24993: Liquidity Constraints and the Value of Insurance

Keith Ericson and Justin R. Sydnor

24992: Improving Non-Academic Student Outcomes Using Online and Text-Message Coaching

Philip Oreopoulos, Uros Petronijevic, Christine Logel and Graham Beattie

24991: Monopsony and Employer Mis-optimization Explain Why Wages Bunch at Round Numbers

Arindrajit Dube, Alan Manning and Suresh Naidu

24990: The Impact of the Philadelphia Beverage Tax on Prices and Product Availability

John Cawley, David Frisvold, Anna Hill and David Jones

24989: The Costs of Macroprudential Policy

Björn Richter, Moritz Schularick and Ilhyock Shim

24988: Labor Market Search With Imperfect Information and Learning

John J. Conlon, Laura Pilossoph, Matthew Wiswall and Basit Zafar

24987: Do You Know That I Know That You Know...? Higher-Order Beliefs in Survey Data

Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Saten Kumar and Jane Ryngaert

24986: School Nutrition and Student Discipline: Effects of Schoolwide Free Meals

Nora Gordon and Krista Ruffini

24985: Individual and Aggregate Labor Supply in Heterogeneous Agent Economies with Intensive and Extensive Margins

Yongsung Chang, Sun-Bin Kim, Kyooho Kwon and Richard Rogerson

24984: Financial Markets, the Real Economy, and Self-fulfilling Uncertainties

Jess Benhabib, Xuewen Liu and Pengfei Wang

24983: The Exorbitant Tax Privilege

Thomas Wright and Gabriel Zucman

24982: Taxation and Innovation in the 20th Century

Ufuk Akcigit, John Grigsby, Tom Nicholas and Stefanie Stantcheva

24981: Quantitative Sovereign Default Models and the European Debt Crisis

Luigi Bocola, Gideon Bornstein and Alessandro Dovis

24980: Setting with the Sun: The Impacts of Renewable Energy on Wholesale Power Markets

James Bushnell and Kevin Novan

24979: Rising Government Debt: Causes and Solutions for a Decades-Old Trend

Pierre Yared

24978: Cognitive Imprecision and Small-Stakes Risk Aversion

Mel Win Khaw, Ziang Li and Michael Woodford

24977: Intrahousehold Consumption Allocation and Demand for Agency: A Triple Experimental Investigation

Uzma Afzal, Giovanna d'Adda, Marcel Fafchamps and Farah Said

24976: When Investor Incentives and Consumer Interests Diverge: Private Equity in Higher Education

Charlie Eaton, Sabrina Howell and Constantine Yannelis

24975: Prescription Drug Monitoring Programs, Opioid Abuse, and Crime

Dhaval Dave, Monica Deza and Brady Horn

24974: Smokers’ Rational Lexicographic Preferences for Cigarette Package Warnings: A Discrete Choice Experiment with Eye Tracking

Jeffrey E. Harris, Mariana Gerstenblüth and Patricia Triunfo

24973: Asset Insulators

Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, Andra Ghent and Valentin Haddad

24972: Asset Pricing with Endogenously Uninsurable Tail Risk

Hengjie Ai and Anmol Bhandari

24971: Resolving New Keynesian Anomalies with Wealth in the Utility Function

Pascal Michaillat and Emmanuel Saez

24970: Hazed and Confused: The Effect of Air Pollution on Dementia

Kelly Bishop, Jonathan Ketcham and Nicolai Kuminoff

24969: The Impact of Chief Diversity Officers on Diverse Faculty Hiring

Steven Bradley, James R. Garven, Wilson Law and James West

24968: On Average Establishment Size across Sectors and Countriesy

Pedro Bento and Diego Restuccia

24967: Machine Learning for Regularized Survey Forecast Combination: Partially-Egalitarian Lasso and its Derivatives

Francis Diebold and Minchul Shin

24966: Authoritarian Elites

Adlai Newson and Francesco Trebbi

24965: Commodity Trade Matters

Thibault Fally and James Sayre

24964: Liquidity vs. Wealth in Household Debt Obligations: Evidence from Housing Policy in the Great Recession

Peter Ganong and Pascal Noel

24963: Design-based Analysis in Difference-In-Differences Settings with Staggered Adoption

Susan Athey and Guido Imbens

24962: Schooling, Wealth, Risky Sexual Behavior, and HIV/AIDS in Sub-Saharan Africa

Adrienne Lucas and Nicholas Wilson

24961: Target setting and Allocative Inefficiency in Lending: Evidence from Two Chinese Banks

Yiming Cao, Raymond Fisman, Hui Lin and Yongxiang Wang

24960: Mismatch and Assimilation

Ping Wang, Russell Wong and Chong Yip

24959: The Limits of Simple Implementation Intentions: Evidence from a Field Experiment on Making Plans to Exercise

Mariana Carrera, Heather Royer, Mark Stehr, Justin R. Sydnor and Dmitry Taubinsky

24958: Top of the Class: The Importance of Ordinal Rank

Richard Murphy and Felix Weinhardt

24957: Unpacking the effects of adverse regulatory events: Evidence from pharmaceutical relabeling

Matthew Higgins, Xin Yan and Chirantan Chatterjee

24956: Frictional Intermediation in Over-the-counter Markets

Julien Hugonnier, Benjamin Lester and Pierre-Olivier Weill

24955: Understanding Doctor Decision Making: The Case of Depression

Janet Currie and W. Bentley Macleod

24954: Traumatic Health Shocks and Spiritual Capital

Resul Cesur, Travis Freidman and Joseph J. Sabia

24953: Measuring Bias in Consumer Lending

Will Dobbie, Andres Liberman, Daniel Paravisini and Vikram Pathania

24952: Measuring Gentrification: Using Yelp Data to Quantify Neighborhood Change

Edward Glaeser, Hyunjin Kim and Michael Luca

24951: Occupational Classifications: A Machine Learning Approach

Akina Ikudo, Julia Lane, Joseph Staudt and Bruce Weinberg

24950: Measuring the Gig Economy: Current Knowledge and Open Issues

Katharine Abraham, John Haltiwanger, Kristin Sandusky and James Spletzer

24949: Discouraging Deviant Behavior in Monetary Economics

Lawrence Christiano and Yuta Takahashi

24948: Estimating the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution Using Mortgage Notches

Michael Best, James Cloyne, Ethan Ilzetzki and Henrik Kleven

24947: The Problem of Data Quality in Analyses of Opioid Regulation: The Case of Prescription Drug Monitoring Programs

Jill Horwitz, Corey S. Davis, Lynn S. McClelland, Rebecca S. Fordon and Ellen Meara

24946: Long-Term Care Hospitals: A Case Study in Waste

Liran Einav, Amy Finkelstein and Neale Mahoney

24945: Take Two! SAT Retaking and College Enrollment Gaps

Joshua Goodman, Oded Gurantz and Jonathan Smith

24944: Shift-Share Designs: Theory and Inference

Rodrigo Adão, Michal Kolesár and Eduardo Morales

24943: Transportation and Health in the Antebellum United States 1820-1847

Ariell Zimran

24942: Weight gains from trade in foods: Evidence from Mexico

Osea Giuntella, Matthias Rieger and Lorenzo Rotunno