NBER Working Papers

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24027: Measuring Global Value Chains

Robert Johnson

24026: Characterizing the Drug Development Pipeline for Precision Medicines

Amitabh Chandra, Craig Garthwaite and Ariel Dora Stern

24025: Pass-Through of Own and Rival Cost Shocks: Evidence from the U.S. Fracking Boom

Erich Muehlegger and Richard Sweeney

24024: Bid Shading and Bidder Surplus in the U.S. Treasury Auction System

Ali Hortacsu, Jakub Kastl and Allen Zhang

24023: Missing Growth from Creative Destruction

Philippe Aghion, Antonin Bergeaud, Timo Boppart, Pete Klenow and Huiyu Li

24022: The ‘China Shock’, Exports and U.S. Employment: A Global Input-Output Analysis

Robert Feenstra and Akira Sasahara

24021: Orphan Drug Designations as Valuable Intangible Assets for IPO Investors in Pharma-Biotech Companies

Philippe Gorry and Diego Useche

24020: The Information Pharms Race and Competitive Dynamics of Precision Medicine: Insights from Game Theory

Ernst R. Berndt and Mark R. Trusheim

24019: How Well Do Automated Linking Methods Perform? Lessons from U.S. Historical Data

Martha Bailey, Connor Cole, Morgan Henderson and Catherine Massey

24018: On the Economics of Audit Partner Tenure and Rotation: Evidence from PCAOB Data

Brandon Gipper, Luzi Hail and Christian Leuz

24017: How Well Do Structural Demand Models Work? Counterfactual Predictions in School Choice

Parag Pathak and Peng Shi

24016: The Gold Pool (1961-1968) and the Fall of the Bretton Woods System. Lessons for Central Bank Cooperation

Michael Bordo, Eric Monnet and Alain Naef

24015: Educational Upgrading and Returns to Skills in Latin America: Evidence from a Supply-Demand Framework

Sebastian Galiani, Guillermo Cruces, Pablo Acosta and Leonardo Gasparini

24014: Daily Price Limits and Destructive Market Behavior

Ting Chen, Zhenyu Gao, Jibao He, Wenxi Jiang and Wei Xiong

24013: The Life-Cycle Dynamics of Exporters and Multinational Firms

Anna Gumpert, Haishi Li, Andreas Moxnes, Natalia Ramondo and Felix Tintelnot

24012: Premium or Penalty? Labor Market Returns to Novice Public Sector Teachers

Juan Saavedra, Darío Maldonado, Lucrecia Santibanez and Luis Omar Herrera Prada

24011: Do Household Wealth Shocks Affect Productivity? Evidence from Innovative Workers During the Great Recession

Shai Bernstein, Timothy McQuade and Richard R. Townsend

24010: Nowcasting the Local Economy: Using Yelp Data to Measure Economic Activity

Edward Glaeser, Hyunjin Kim and Michael Luca

24009: The Development Effects of the Extractive Colonial Economy: The Dutch Cultivation System in Java

Melissa Dell and Benjamin Olken

24008: Older Americans Would Work Longer If Jobs Were Flexible

John Ameriks, Joseph Briggs, Andrew Caplin, Minjoon Lee, Matthew Shapiro and Christopher Tonetti

24007: Productivity and Misallocation in General Equilibrium

David Baqaee and Emmanuel Farhi

24006: Children, Time Allocation and Consumption Insurance

Richard Blundell, Luigi Pistaferri and Itay Saporta-Eksten

24005: The Rise, the Fall, and the Resurrection of Iceland

Sigríður Benediktsdóttir, Gauti Eggertsson and Eggert Þórarinsson

24004: Measuring Success in Education: The Role of Effort on the Test Itself

Uri Gneezy, John List, Jeffrey Livingston, Sally Sadoff, Xiangdong Qin and Yang Xu

24003: When Should You Adjust Standard Errors for Clustering?

Alberto Abadie, Susan Athey, Guido Imbens and Jeffrey Wooldridge

24002: Medicaid and Financial Health

Kenneth Brevoort, Daniel Grodzicki and Martin Hackmann

24001: Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox: A Clash of Expectations and Statistics

Erik Brynjolfsson, Daniel Rock and Chad Syverson

24000: How Bargaining in Marriage drives Marriage Market Equilibrium

Robert Pollak

23999: CoCo Issuance and Bank Fragility

Stefan Avdjiev, Bilyana Bogdanova, Patrick Bolton, Wei Jiang and Anastasia Kartasheva

23998: A Note on Variance Decomposition with Local Projections

Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Byoungchan Lee

23997: Frontier Culture: The Roots and Persistence of “Rugged Individualism” in the United States

Samuel Bazzi, Martin Fiszbein and Mesay Gebresilasse

23996: Uniform Pricing in US Retail Chains

Stefano DellaVigna and Matthew Gentzkow

23995: Impact of Comprehensive Smoking Bans on the Health of Infants and Children

Kerry Anne McGeary, Dhaval Dave, Brandy J. Lipton and Timothy Roeper

23994: City Equilibrium with Borrowing Constraints: Structural Estimation and General Equilibrium Effects

Amine Ouazad and Romain Ranciere

23993: What Rule for the Federal Reserve? Forecast Targeting

Lars Svensson

23992: Trade, Merchants, and the Lost Cities of the Bronze Age

Gojko Barjamovic, Thomas Chaney, A. Kerem Coşar and Ali Hortacsu

23991: Temperature Effects on Productivity and Factor Reallocation: Evidence from a Half Million Chinese Manufacturing Plants

Peng Zhang, Olivier Deschenes, Kyle Meng and Junjie Zhang

23990: Means-Testing Federal Health Entitlement Benefits

Andrew Samwick

23989: Therapeutic Translation of Genomic Science: Opportunities and limitations of GWAS

Manuel Hermosilla and Jorge A. Lemus

23988: Global Trade and the Dollar

Emine Boz, Gita Gopinath and Mikkel Plagborg-Moller

23987: Digital Innovation and the Distribution of Income

Dominique Guellec and Caroline Paunov

23986: Incentive Constrained Risk Sharing, Segmentation, and Asset Pricing

Bruno Biais, Johan Hombert and Pierre-Olivier Weill

23985: ECB Policies Involving Government Bond Purchases: Impact and Channels

Arvind Krishnamurthy, Stefan Nagel and Annette Vissing-Jorgensen

23984: Financial Crises, Dollarization, and Lending of Last Resort in Open Economies

Luigi Bocola and Guido Lorenzoni

23983: Exploding Asthma and ADHD Caseloads: The Role of Medicaid Managed Care

Anna Chorniy, Janet Currie and Lyudmyla Sonchak

23982: Parental Monitoring and Children's Internet Use: The Role of Information, Control, and Cues

Francisco Gallego, Ofer Malamud and Cristian Pop-Eleches

23981: Mutual Funds as Venture Capitalists? Evidence from Unicorns

Sergey Chernenko, Josh Lerner and Yao Zeng

23980: Taxing Humans: Pitfalls of the Mechanism Design Approach and Potential Resolutions

Alex Rees-Jones and Dmitry Taubinsky

23979: Relative Prices and Sectoral Productivity

Margarida Duarte and Diego Restuccia

23978: Distortion by Audit: Evidence from Public Procurement

Maria Paula Gerardino, Stephan Litschig and Dina Pomeranz

23977: The Neo-Fisher Effect in the United States and Japan

Martín Uribe

23976: Payroll Taxes, Firm Behavior, and Rent Sharing: Evidence from a Young Workers' Tax Cut in Sweden

Emmanuel Saez, Benjamin Schoefer and David Seim

23975: The Center and the Periphery: Two Hundred Years of International Borrowing Cycles

Graciela Kaminsky

23974: Informing SPR Policy Through Oil Futures and Inventory Dynamics

Richard Newell and Brian Prest

23973: The Unconventional Oil Supply Boom: Aggregate Price Response from Microdata

Richard Newell and Brian Prest

23972: The Effects of Marriage-Related Taxes and Social Security Benefits

Margherita Borella, Mariacristina De Nardi and Fang Yang

23971: Does Parents’ Access to Family Planning Increase Children’s Opportunities? Evidence from the War on Poverty and the Early Years of Title X

Martha Bailey, Olga Malkova and Zoë McLaren

23970: Production Flexibility, Misallocation and Total Factor Productivity

Burak Uras and Ping Wang

23969: A Tale of Two Cities: Cross-Border Casino Competition Between Detroit and Windsor

Juin-jen Chang, Ching-chong Lai and Ping Wang

23968: Identification in Macroeconomics

Emi Nakamura and Jon Steinsson

23967: The Economics of PIPEs

Jongha Lim, Michael Schwert and Michael Weisbach

23966: Technology and the Effectiveness of Regulatory Programs Over Time: Vehicle Emissions and Smog Checks with a Changing Fleet

Nicholas Sanders and Ryan Sandler

23965: Implications of Medicaid Financing Reform for State Government Budgets

Jeffrey Clemens and Benedic Ippolito

23964: Diagnosing the Italian Disease

Bruno Pellegrino and Luigi Zingales

23963: The Lifetime Costs of Bad Health

Mariacristina De Nardi, Svetlana Pashchenko and Ponpoje Porapakkarm

23962: Marketing Agencies and Collusive Bidding in Online Ad Auctions

Francesco Decarolis, Maris Goldmanis and Antonio Penta

23961: Sticky Prices Versus Sticky Information: Does it Matter for Policy Paradoxes?

Gauti Eggertsson and Vaishali Garga

23960: Market Reforms at the Zero Lower Bound

Matteo Cacciatore, Romain Duval, Giuseppe Fiori and Fabio Ghironi

23959: Social Capital and Labor Market Networks

Brian Asquith, Judith Hellerstein, Mark Kutzbach and David Neumark

23958: Information Aversion

Marianne Andries and Valentin Haddad

23957: Experimentation at Scale

Karthik Muralidharan and Paul Niehaus

23956: A Dose of Managed Care: Controlling Drug Spending in Medicaid

David Dranove, Christopher Ody and Amanda Starc

23955: Storm Crowds: Evidence from Zooniverse on Crowd Contribution Design

Sandra Barbosu and Joshua Gans

23954: Willingness to Pay and Willingness to Accept are Probably Less Correlated Than You Think

Jonathan Chapman, Mark Dean, Pietro Ortoleva, Erik Snowberg and Colin Camerer

23953: Gender Representation in Economics Across Topics and Time: Evidence from the NBER Summer Institute

Anusha Chari and Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

23952: Using Spatial Factor Analysis to Measure Human Development

Qihua Qiu, Jaesang Sung, Will Davis and Rusty Tchernis

23951: Signing Statements and Presidentializing Legislative History

John M. de Figueiredo and Edward H. Stiglitz

23950: Vocational Education, Manufacturing, and Income Distribution: International Evidence and Case Studies

Joshua Aizenman, Yothin Jinjarak, Nam Ngo and Ilan Noy

23949: Vertical Integration, Supplier Behavior, and Quality Upgrading among Exporters

Christopher Hansman, Jonas Hjort, Gianmarco León-Ciliotta and Matthieu Teachout

23948: Were Nineteenth-Century Industrial Workers Permanent Income Savers?

Howard Bodenhorn

23947: The Labor Market Effects of Offshoring by U.S. Multinational Firms

Brian Kovak, Lindsay Oldenski and Nicholas Sly

23946: Voter Mobilization and Trust in Electoral Institutions: Evidence from Kenya

Benjamin Marx, Vincent Pons and Tavneet Suri

23945: The Ostrich in Us: Selective Attention to Financial Accounts, Income, Spending, and Liquidity

Arna Olafsson and Michaela Pagel

23944: Democracy by mistake

Daniel Treisman

23943: Global Evidence on Economic Preferences

Armin Falk, Anke Becker, Thomas Dohmen, Benjamin Enke, David Huffman and Uwe Sunde

23942: Fiscal Rules, Bailouts, and Reputation in Federal Governments

Alessandro Dovis and Rishabh Kirpalani

23941: Place-Based Interventions at Scale: The Direct and Spillover Effects of Policing and City Services on Crime

Christopher Blattman, Donald Green, Daniel Ortega and Santiago Tobon

23940: Advertising Spending and Media Bias: Evidence from News Coverage of Car Safety Recalls

Graham Beattie, Ruben Durante, Brian Knight and Ananya Sen

23939: Educational Choice, Rural-urban Migration and Economic Development

Pei-Ju Liao, Ping Wang, Yin-Chi Wang and Chong Yip

23938: Ranking Firms Using Revealed Preference

Isaac Sorkin

23937: Dynamic Trade, Endogenous Institutions and the Colonization of Hong Kong: A Staged Development Framework

T. Terry Cheung, Theodore Palivos, Ping Wang, Yin-Chi Wang and Chong Yip

23936: Emigration during the French Revolution: Consequences in the Short and Longue Durée

Raphael Franck and Stelios Michalopoulos

23935: Computerization and Immigration: Theory and Evidence from the United States

Gaetano Basso, Giovanni Peri and Ahmed Rahman

23934: Religious Competition and Reallocation: The Political Economy of Secularization in the Protestant Reformation

Davide Cantoni, Jeremiah Dittmar and Noam Yuchtman

23933: Sparse Signals in the Cross-Section of Returns

Alexander M. Chinco, Adam D. Clark-Joseph and Mao Ye

23932: Populists at the Polls: Economic Factors in the 1896 Presidential Election

Barry Eichengreen, Michael Haines, Matthew Jaremski and David Leblang

23931: Why Some Times Are Different: Macroeconomic Policy and the Aftermath of Financial Crises

Christina Romer and David Romer

23930: Shadow Banking and the Four Pillars of Traditional Financial Intermediation

Emmanuel Farhi and Jean Tirole

23929: Effects of Emigration on Rural Labor Markets

Agha Akram, Shyamal Chowdhury and Ahmed Mobarak

23928: Artificial Intelligence and Economic Growth

Philippe Aghion, Benjamin Jones and Charles Jones