NBER Working Papers

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28362: Rethinking How We Score Capital Gains Tax Reform

Natasha Sarin, Lawrence Summers, Owen Zidar and Eric Zwick

28361: Longevity Perceptions and Saving Decisions during the COVID-19 Outbreak: An Experimental Investigation

Abigail Hurwitz, Olivia Mitchell and Orly Sade

28360: COVID-19 Disruptions Disproportionately Affect Female Academics

Tatyana Deryugina, Olga Shurchkov and Jenna Stearns

28359: Populism, Protectionism, and Political Instability

Tyler Daun, Sebastian Galiani and Gustavo Torrens

28358: Living and Dying in America: An Essay on Deaths of Despair and the Future of Capitalism

Christopher Ruhm

28357: Government and Private Household Debt Relief during COVID-19

Susan F. Cherry, Erica Xuewei Jiang, Gregor Matvos, Tomasz Piskorski and Amit Seru

28356: Do Global Pandemics Matter for Stock Prices? Lessons from the 1918 Spanish Flu

Marco Del Angel, Caroline Fohlin and Marc Weidenmier

28355: Private and Social Returns to R&D: Drug Development and Demographics

Efraim Benmelech, Janice Eberly, Joshua L. Krieger and Dimitris Papanikolaou

28354: Hit Harder, Recover Slower? Unequal Employment Effects of the Covid-19 Shock

Sang Yoon (Tim) Lee, Minsung Park and Yongseok Shin

28353: Examining Income Expectations in the College and Early Post-college Periods: New Distributional Tests of Rational Expectations

Thomas Crossley, Yifan Gong, Todd Stinebrickner and Ralph Stinebrickner

28352: Urban Specialisation; from Sectoral to Functional

Antoine Gervais, James Markusen and Anthony Venables

28351: Zoning and Segregation in Urban Economic History

Allison Shertzer, Tate Twinam and Randall Walsh

28350: Common Ownership and Competition in the Ready-to-Eat Cereal Industry

Matthew Backus, Christopher Conlon and Michael Sinkinson

28349: Private and Public Investments in Biomedical Research

Maya M. Durvasula, Lisa Ouellette and Heidi Williams

28348: The Asset Pricing Implications of Plausible Deniability

Kerry Back, Bruce I. Carlin and Seyed Mohammad Kazempour

28347: Chaos and Unpredictability in Dynamic Social Problems

Marco Battaglini

28346: Keynesian Production Networks and the Covid-19 Crisis: A Simple Benchmark

David Baqaee and Emmanuel Farhi

28345: The Supply-Side Effects of Monetary Policy

David Baqaee, Emmanuel Farhi and Kunal Sangani

28344: Africa's Manufacturing Puzzle: Evidence from Tanzanian and Ethiopian Firms

Xinshen Diao, Mia Ellis, Margaret McMillan and Dani Rodrik

28343: Students' Heterogeneous Preferences and the Uneven Spatial Distribution of Colleges

Chao Fu, Junjie Guo, Adam J. Smith and Alan T. Sorensen

28342: The Globalization of Postsecondary Education: The Role of International Students in the US Higher Education System

John Bound, Breno Braga, Gaurav Khanna and Sarah Turner

28341: No-fault Default, Chapter 11 Bankruptcy, and Financial Institutions

Robert Merton and Richard Thakor

28340: Recipes and Economic Growth: A Combinatorial March Down an Exponential Tail

Charles Jones

28339: Globalization and Global Crises: Rest of the World vs. Israel

Assaf Razin

28338: Do Financial Concerns Make Workers Less Productive?

Supreet Kaur, Sendhil Mullainathan, Suanna Oh and Frank Schilbach

28337: Place-Based Redistribution

Cecile Gaubert, Patrick Kline, Damián Vergara and Danny Yagan

28336: Personnel Management and School Productivity: Evidence from India

Renata Lemos, Karthik Muralidharan and Daniela Scur

28335: The Economics of Crisis Innovation Policy: A Historical Perspective

Daniel Gross and Bhaven Sampat

28334: Family Spillover Effects of Marginal Diagnoses: The Case of ADHD

Petra Persson, Xinyao Qiu and Maya Rossin-Slater

28333: Price Indices and the Value of Innovation with Heterogenous Patients

Claudio Lucarelli, Sean Nicholson and Nicholas Tilipman

28332: The Globalization of Refugee Flows

Xavier Devictor, Quy-Toan Do and Andrei Levchenko

28331: The Behavioral Foundations of Default Effects: Theory and Evidence from Medicare Part D

Zarek Brot-Goldberg, Timothy Layton, Boris Vabson and Adelina Yanyue Wang

28330: How do Physicians Respond to Malpractice Allegations? Evidence from Florida Emergency Departments

Caitlin Carroll, David Cutler and Anupam Jena

28329: Wealth Trajectories Across Key Milestones: Longitudinal Evidence from Life-Course Transitions

Gopi Goda and Jialu Liu Streeter

28328: Machine Learning and Perceived Age Stereotypes in Job Ads: Evidence from an Experiment

Ian Burn, Daniel Firoozi, Daniel Ladd and David Neumark

28327: Informational Content of Factor Structures in Simultaneous Binary Response Models

Shakeeb Khan, Arnaud Maurel and Yichong Zhang

28326: The Family Origin of the Math Gender Gap is a White Affluent Phenomenon

Gaia Dossi, David Figlio, Paola Giuliano and Paola Sapienza

28325: Promoting Platform Takeoff and Self-Fulfilling Expectations: Field Experimental Evidence

Kevin Boudreau

28324: What Matters for Electrification? Evidence from 70 Years of U.S. Home Heating Choices

Lucas Davis

28323: Estimating Production Functions in Differentiated-Product Industries with Quantity Information and External Instruments

Nicolás de Roux, Marcela Eslava, Santiago Franco and Eric Verhoogen

28322: Robots and Labor in the Service Sector: Evidence from Nursing Homes

Karen Eggleston, Yong Suk Lee and Toshiaki Iizuka

28321: Did the $660 Billion Paycheck Protection Program and $220 Billion Economic Injury Disaster Loan Program Get Disbursed to Minority Communities in the Early Stages of COVID-19?

Robert Fairlie and Frank Fossen

28320: Stock Prices and Economic Activity in the Time of Coronavirus

Steven Davis, Dingqian Liu and Xuguang Simon Sheng

28319: Adaptive Correspondence Experiments

Hadar Avivi, Patrick Kline, Evan Rose and Christopher Walters

28318: Another brick on the Wall: On the Effects of Non-Contributory Pensions on Material and Subjective Well Being

Rosangela Bando, Sebastian Galiani and Paul Gertler

28317: Moms’ Time—Married or Not

Daniel Hamermesh

28316: Health Knowledge and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Africa

Anne Fitzpatrick, Sabrin Beg, Laura Derksen, Anne Karing, Jason Kerwin, Adrienne Lucas, Natalia Ordaz Reynoso and Munir Squires

28315: Globalization, Trade Imbalances and Labor Market Adjustment

Rafael Dix-Carneiro, João Paulo Pessoa, Ricardo Reyes-Heroles and Sharon Traiberman

28314: The Impact of COVID-19 on US Firms

Nicholas Bloom, Robert Fletcher and Ethan Yeh

28313: Who Will Fill China's Shoes? The Global Evolution of Labor-Intensive Manufacturing

Gordon Hanson

28312: A Grant to Every Citizen: Survey Evidence of the Impact of a Direct Government Payment in Israel

Naomi Feldman and Ori Heffetz

28311: Trauma at School: The Impacts of Shootings on Students' Human Capital and Economic Outcomes

Marika Cabral, Bokyung Kim, Maya Rossin-Slater, Molly Schnell and Hannes Schwandt

28310: Measuring Unemployment in Crisis: Effects of COVID-19 on Potential Biases in the CPS

Ori Heffetz and Daniel Reeves

28309: Cities, Productivity, and Trade

Alvaro Garcia-Marin, Andrei V. Potlogea, Nico Voigtländer and Yang Yang

28308: Self-image Bias and Lost Talent

Marciano Siniscalchi and Pietro Veronesi

28307: Exposure to a School Shooting and Subsequent Well-Being

Phillip Levine and Robin McKnight

28306: Event-day Options

Jonathan Wright

28305: Vertical Integration of Healthcare Providers Increases Self-Referrals and Can Reduce Downstream Competition: The Case of Hospital-Owned Skilled Nursing Facilities

David Cutler, Leemore Dafny, David C. Grabowski, Steven Lee and Christopher Ody

28304: The Long-Term Impact of the COVID-19 Unemployment Shock on Life Expectancy and Mortality Rates

Francesco Bianchi, Giada Bianchi and Dongho Song

28303: Deaths of Despair and the Incidence of Excess Mortality in 2020

Casey Mulligan

28302: Answering the Queen: Machine Learning and Financial Crises

Jeremy Fouliard, Michael Howell, Helene Rey and Vania Stavrakeva

28301: Borders within Europe

Marta A. Santamaría, Jaume Ventura and Uğur Yeşilbayraktar

28300: Parallel Digital Currencies and Sticky Prices

Harald Uhlig and Taojun Xie

28299: Market Structure and Extortion: Evidence from 50,000 Extortion Payments

Zach Brown, Eduardo Montero, Carlos Schmidt-Padilla and Maria Micaela Sviatschi

28298: Dynamic Banking and the Value of Deposits

Patrick Bolton, Ye Li, Neng Wang and Jinqiang Yang

28297: History’s Masters: The Effect of European Monarchs on State Performance

Sebastian Ottinger and Nico Voigtländer

28296: Political Parties as Drivers of U.S. Polarization: 1927-2018

Nathan Canen, Chad Kendall and Francesco Trebbi

28295: Family Support in Hard Times: Dynamics of Intergenerational Exchange after Adverse Events

Jessamyn Schaller and Chase S. Eck

28294: Wage Risk and Government and Spousal Insurance

Mariacristina De Nardi, Giulio Fella and Gonzalo Paz-Pardo

28293: Comparing Conventional and Machine-Learning Approaches to Risk Assessment in Domestic Abuse Cases

Jeffrey Grogger, Sean Gupta, Ria Ivandic and Tom Kirchmaier

28292: Sovereign Debt Standstills

Juan C. Hatchondo, Leonardo Martinez and Cesar Sosa-Padilla

28291: Scarred but Wiser: World War 2’s COVID Legacy

Michael Lokshin, Vladimir Kolchin and Martin Ravallion

28290: Advanced Technologies Adoption and Use by U.S. Firms: Evidence from the Annual Business Survey

Nikolas Zolas, Zachary Kroff, Erik Brynjolfsson, Kristina McElheran, David N. Beede, Catherine Buffington, Nathan Goldschlag, Lucia Foster and Emin Dinlersoz

28289: Exporting from China: The Determinants of Trade Status

Russell Cooper, Guan Gong, Guanliang Hu and Ping Yan

28288: Detecting Drivers of Behavior at an Early Age: Evidence from a Longitudinal Field Experiment

Marco Castillo, John List, Ragan Petrie and Anya Samek

28287: Infrastructure and Urban Form

Edward Glaeser

28286: Who Supplies PPP Loans (And Does it Matter)? Banks, Relationships and the COVID Crisis

Lei Li and Philip Strahan

28285: Digital Capital and Superstar Firms

Prasanna Tambe, Lorin Hitt, Daniel Rock and Erik Brynjolfsson

28284: Self-Fulfilling Risk Panics: An Expected Utility Framework

Jess Benhabib, Xuewen Liu and Pengfei Wang

28283: The Social Side of Early Human Capital Formation: Using a Field Experiment to Estimate the Causal Impact of Neighborhoods

John List, Fatemeh Momeni and Yves Zenou

28282: Integrated Epi-Econ Assessment

Timo Boppart, Karl Harmenberg, John Hassler, Per Krusell and Jonna Olsson

28281: Macroeconomic Expectations and Credit Card Spending

Misha Galashin, Martin Kanz and Ricardo Perez-Truglia

28280: Uniform Admissions, Unequal Access: Did the Top 10% Plan Increase Access to Selective Flagship Institutions?

Kalena Cortes and Daniel Klasik

28279: Why Does the U.S. Have the Best Research Universities? Incentives, Resources, and Virtuous Circles

W. Bentley Macleod and Miguel Urquiola

28278: Latent Exports: Almost Ideal Gravity and Zeros

James Anderson and Penglong Zhang

28277: Pound for Pound Export Diversification

James Anderson and Yoto Yotov

28276: Informal Central Bank Communication

Annette Vissing-Jorgensen

28275: Effects of Reduced Workplace Presence on COVID-19 Deaths: An Instrumental-Variables Approach

John McLaren and Su Wang

28274: Specialization, Market Access and Real Income

Dominick Bartelme, Ting Lan and Andrei Levchenko

28273: Identifying the Latent Space Geometry of Network Models through Analysis of Curvature

Shane Lubold, Arun Chandrasekhar and Tyler H. McCormick

28272: Dynamic Price Competition, Learning-By-Doing and Strategic Buyers

Andrew Sweeting, Dun Jia, Shen Hui and Xinlu Yao

28271: Gentrification and Retail Churn: Theory and Evidence

Edward Glaeser, Michael Luca and Erica Moszkowski

28270: Religion and Educational Mobility in Africa

Alberto Alesina, Sebastian Hohmann, Stelios Michalopoulos and Elias Papaioannou

28269: Who Benefits from Worker Representation on Corporate Boards?

Christine Blandhol, Magne Mogstad, J Peter Nilsson and Ola Vestad

28268: Prep School for Poor Kids: The Long-Run Impacts of Head Start on Human Capital and Economic Self-Sufficiency

Martha Bailey, Shuqiao Sun and Brenden Timpe

28267: Information, Preferences, and Household Demand for School Value Added

Robert Ainsworth, Rajeev Dehejia, Cristian Pop-Eleches and Miguel Urquiola

28266: Supply-Side Variation in the Use of Emergency Departments

Dan Zeltzer, Liran Einav, Avichai Chasid and Ran D. Balicer

28265: What Were the Odds? Estimating the Market's Probability of Uncertain Events

Ashley Langer and Derek Lemoine

28264: When the Great Equalizer Shuts Down: Schools, Peers, and Parents in Pandemic Times

Francesco Agostinelli, Matthias Doepke, Giuseppe Sorrenti and Fabrizio Zilibotti

28263: International Trade and Earnings Inequality: A New Factor Content Approach

Rodrigo Adão, Paul Carrillo, Arnaud Costinot, Dave Donaldson and Dina Pomeranz