NBER Working Papers

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29362: Early Childhood Development, Human Capital and Poverty

Orazio Attanasio, Sarah Cattan and Costas Meghir

29361: “Beauty Too Rich for Use”*: Billionaires’ Assets and Attractiveness

Daniel Hamermesh and Andrew Leigh

29360: The Political Economy of the COVID-19 Fiscal Stimulus Packages of 2020

Joshua Aizenman, Yothin Jinjarak, Hien Nguyen and Ilan Noy

29359: The Effects of Taxes on Innovation: Theory and Empirical Evidence

Stefanie Stantcheva

29358: Probabilistic Prediction for Binary Treatment Choice: with Focus on Personalized Medicine

Charles Manski

29357: Economic Activity and Biodiversity in the United States

Yuanning Liang, Ivan J. Rudik and Eric Zou

29356: A Taste of Their Own Medicine: Guideline Adherence and Access to Expertise

Amy Finkelstein, Petra Persson, Maria Polyakova and Jesse Shapiro

29355: Providing Vouchers and Value Information for Already Free Eye Exams Increases Uptake Among a Low-Income Minority Population: A Randomized Trial

Seema Kacker, Mario Macis, Prateek Gajwani and David S. Friedman

29354: Closing the Innovation Gap in Pink and Black

Lisa Cook, Janet Gerson and Jennifer Kuan

29353: College Choice, Private Options, and The Incidence of Public Investment in Higher Education

John Bound and Andrew Simon

29352: Tax Policy Design with Low Interest Rates

Alan Auerbach and William Gale

29351: What Drives Variation in the U.S. Debt/Output Ratio? The Dogs that Didn't Bark

Zhengyang Jiang, Hanno Lustig, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh and Mindy Xiaolan

29350: Gender Preferences in Job Vacancies and Workplace Gender Diversity

David Card, Fabrizio Colella and Rafael Lalive

29349: Illuminating the Effects of the US-China Tariff War on China's Economy

Davin Chor and Bingjing Li

29348: Outsourcing, Inequality and Aggregate Output

Adrien Bilal and Hugo Lhuillier

29347: Rethinking Exchange Rate Regimes

Ethan Ilzetzki, Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff

29346: Macroprudential Policy during COVID-19: The Role of Policy Space

Katharina Bergant and Kristin Forbes

29345: From Just in Time, to Just in Case, to Just in Worst-Case: Simple models of a Global Supply Chain under Uncertain Aggregate Shocks

Bomin Jiang, Daniel E. Rigobon and Roberto Rigobon

29344: Business News and Business Cycles

Leland Bybee, Bryan T. Kelly, Asaf Manela and Dacheng Xiu

29343: Hysteresis in Unemployment: Evidence from OECD Estimates of the Natural Rate

Laurence Ball and Joern Onken

29342: Estimating the Net Fiscal Cost of a Child Tax Credit Expansion

Jacob Goldin, Elaine Maag and Katherine Michelmore

29341: The Psychosocial Effects of the Flint Water Crisis on School-Age Children

Sam Trejo, Gloria Yeomans-Maldonado and Brian Jacob

29340: Why do people stay poor?

Clare A. Balboni, Oriana Bandiera, Robin Burgess, Maitreesh Ghatak and Anton Heil

29339: The Economics of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Poor Countries

Edward Miguel and Ahmed Mobarak

29338: Bayesian Learning

Isaac Baley and Laura Veldkamp

29337: Decrypting New Age International Capital Flows

Clemens Graf von Luckner, Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff

29336: Exposure, Experience, and Expertise: Why Personal Histories Matter in Economics

Ulrike Malmendier

29335: Tracing Value Added in the Presence of Foreign Direct Investment

Zhi Wang, Shang-Jin Wei, Xinding Yu and Kunfu Zhu

29334: Minimum Wages and Teenage Childbearing: New Estimates Using a Dynamic Difference-in-Differences Approach

Daniel Rees, Joseph J. Sabia and Rebecca Margolit

29333: Creative Destruction, Distance to Frontier, and Economic Development

Michael Peters and Fabrizio Zilibotti

29332: The US Pretrial System: Balancing Individual Rights and Public Interests

Will S. Dobbie and Crystal Yang

29331: Charitable Giving Responses to Education Budgets

Jonathan Meer and Hedieh Tajali

29330: Supply Chain Resilience: Should Policy Promote Diversification or Reshoring?

Gene Grossman, Elhanan Helpman and Hugo Lhuillier

29329: Market Size and Spatial Growth - Evidence from Germany’s Post-War Population Expulsions

Michael Peters

29328: Mortality Rates by College Degree Before and During COVID-19

Anne Case and Angus Deaton

29327: The Global Financial Cycle

Silvia Miranda-Agrippino and Helene Rey

29326: Economic Growth and Bank Innovation

Gary Gorton and Ping He

29325: Exposure to Cigarette Taxes as a Teenager and the Persistence of Smoking into Adulthood

Andrew Friedson, Moyan Li, Katherine Meckel, Daniel Rees and Daniel W. Sacks

29324: Circles of Trust: Rival Information in Social Networks

Petra Persson, Nikita Roketskiy and Samuel Lee

29323: Low Inflation Bends the Phillips Curve around the World

Kristin Forbes, Joseph Gagnon and Christopher Collins

29322: Corporate Culture

Gary Gorton, Jillian Grennan and Alexander K. Zentefis

29321: The Causal Effects of Place on Health and Longevity

Tatyana Deryugina and David Molitor

29320: Environmental Drivers of Agricultural Productivity Growth: CO₂ Fertilization of US Field Crops

Charles Taylor and Wolfram Schlenker

29319: Learning to Use Trade Agreements

Kala Krishna, Carlos Salamanca, Yuta Suzuki and Christian Volpe Martincus

29318: Occupational Licensing and Accountant Quality: Evidence from the 150-Hour Rule

John Barrios

29317: Dynamics of Large Multinationals

Elhanan Helpman and Benjamin C. Niswonger

29316: Refining Set-Identification in VARs through Independence

Thorsten Drautzburg and Jonathan Wright

29315: The Economic Impacts of the US-China Trade War

Pablo Fajgelbaum and Amit Khandelwal

29314: The Role of Trade in Economic Development

David Atkin and Dave Donaldson

29313: Foreign Investors and US Treasuries

Alexandra M. Tabova and Francis E. Warnock

29312: Task Allocation and On-the-job Training

Mariagiovanna Baccara, SangMok Lee and Leeat Yariv

29311: Big Loans to Small Businesses: Predicting Winners and Losers in an Entrepreneurial Lending Experiment

Gharad T. Bryan, Dean Karlan and Adam Osman

29310: Dynamic Strategic Corporate Finance: A Tug of War with Financial Frictions

Ulrich Doraszelski, João Gomes and Felix Nockher

29309: Why Don’t Elite Colleges Expand Supply?

Peter Q. Blair and Kent Smetters

29308: Why Does Education Increase Voting? Evidence from Boston’s Charter Schools

Sarah Cohodes and James Feigenbaum

29307: Recovery from the COVID-19 Recession: Uneven Effects among Young Workers?

Pinka Chatterji and Yue Li

29306: Racial Disparities in Housing Returns

Amir Kermani and Francis Wong

29305: Foundations of Demand Estimation

Steven Berry and Philip Haile

29304: Demand Composition and the Strength of Recoveries

Martin Beraja and Christian Wolf

29303: International Reserve Management and Firm Investment in Emerging Market Economies

Joshua Aizenman, Yin-Wong Cheung and Xingwang Qian

29302: The Evolution of Skill Use Within and Between Jobs

Costas Cavounidis, Vittoria Dicandia, Kevin Lang and Raghav Malhotra

29301: Technology Adoption and Market Allocation:The Case of Robotic Surgery

Danea Horn, Adam Sacarny and R. Annetta Zhou

29300: The Sahm Rule and Predicting the Great Recession Across OECD Countries

David Blanchflower and Alex Bryson

29299: From Hermit Kingdom to Miracle on the Han: Policy Decisions that Transformed South Korea into an Export Powerhouse

Douglas Irwin

29298: How Economic Ideas Led to Taiwan’s Shift to Export Promotion in the 1950s

Douglas Irwin

29297: Electoral Violence and Supply Chain Disruptions in Kenya's Floriculture Industry

Christopher Ksoll, Rocco Macchiavello and Ameet Morjaria

29296: Marijuana Liberalization Policies and Perinatal Health

Angélica Meinhofer, Allison Witman, Jesse M. Hinde and Kosali Simon

29295: Privatization of Public Goods: Evidence from the Sanitation Sector in Senegal

Joshua Deutschmann, Jared E. Gars, Jean-François Houde, Molly Lipscomb and Laura Schechter

29294: Social and Financial Incentives for Overcoming a Collective Action Problem

M. Mehrab Bakhtiar, Raymond Guiteras, James Levinsohn and Ahmed Mobarak

29293: Fiscal Policy in the Age of COVID: Does it ‘Get in all of the Cracks?’

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Veronika Penciakova and Nick Sander

29292: Effect of the Jamaica Early Childhood Stimulation Intervention on Labor Market Outcomes at Age 31

Paul Gertler, James Heckman, Rodrigo Pinto, Susan M. Chang, Sally Grantham-McGregor, Christel Vermeersch, Susan Walker and Amika Wright

29291: Dynamic Games in Empirical Industrial Organization

Victor Aguirregabiria, Allan Collard-Wexler and Stephen Ryan

29290: Sorting with Team Formation

Job Boerma, Aleh Tsyvinski and Alexander P. Zimin

29289: Mobility for All: Representative Intergenerational Mobility Estimates over the 20th Century

Elisa Jácome, Ilyana Kuziemko and Suresh Naidu

29288: The Asymmetry in Responsible Investing Preferences

Jacquelyn Humphrey, Shimon Kogan, Jacob Sagi and Laura Starks

29287: Is Healthcare Employment Resilient and “Recession Proof”?

Marcus Dillender, Andrew Friedson, Cong T. Gian and Kosali Simon

29286: The Puzzle of Falling US Birth Rates Since the Great Recession

Melissa Kearney, Phillip Levine and Luke W. Pardue

29285: The Initial Effects of the Expanded Child Tax Credit on Material Hardship

Zachary Parolin, Elizabeth Ananat, Sophie M. Collyer, Megan Curran and Christopher Wimer

29284: Bank Mergers, Acquirer Choice and Small Business Lending: Implications for Community Investment

Bernadette A. Minton, Alvaro G. Taboada and Rohan Williamson

29283: Labor Market Nationalization Policies and Exporting Firm Outcomes: Evidence from Saudi Arabia

Patricia Cortes, Semiray Kasoolu and Carolina Pan

29282: Structural Empirical Analysis of Contracting in Vertical Markets

Robin Lee, Michael Whinston and Ali Yurukoglu

29281: Banking-Crisis Interventions Across Time and Space

Andrew Metrick and Paul Schmelzing

29280: Political Ideology and International Capital Allocation

Elisabeth Kempf, Mancy Luo, Larissa Schäfer and Margarita Tsoutsoura

29279: Human Frictions in the Transmission of Economic Policies

Francesco D’Acunto, Daniel Hoang, Maritta Paloviita and Michael Weber

29278: The Consequences of Chronic Pain in Mid-Life: Evidence from the National Child Development Survey

David Blanchflower and Alex Bryson

29277: External Balance Sheets and the COVID-19 Crisis

Galina Hale and Luciana Juvenal

29276: The Returns to College(s): Relative Value-Added and Match Effects in Higher Education

Jack Mountjoy and Brent R. Hickman

29275: Diverse Policy Committees Can Reach Underrepresented Groups

Francesco D’Acunto, Andreas Fuster and Michael Weber

29274: Salience

Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer

29273: Memory and Probability

Pedro Bordalo, John J. Conlon, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon and Andrei Shleifer

29272: Red Scare? A Study of Ethnic Prejudice in the Prosecutions under the Economic Espionage Act

Hanming Fang and Ming Li

29271: Life Course Effects Of The Lanham Preschools: What The First Government Preschool Effort Can Tell Us About Universal Early Care And Education Today

Taletha M. Derrington, Alison Huang and Joseph P. Ferrie

29270: Measuring the Welfare Cost of Asymmetric Information in Consumer Credit Markets

Anthony DeFusco, Huan Tang and Constantine Yannelis

29269: The Geography of Unemployment

Adrien Bilal

29268: Signaling in Online Credit Markets

Kei Kawai, Ken Onishi and Kosuke Uetake

29267: Fragile Algorithms and Fallible Decision-Makers: Lessons from the Justice System

Jens Ludwig and Sendhil Mullainathan

29266: The Aftermath of Debt Surges

Ayhan Kose, Franziska Ohnsorge, Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff

29265: Experimental Evidence on Semi-structured Bargaining with Private Information

Margherita Comola and Marcel Fafchamps

29264: The Heterogeneous Effects of Large and Small Minimum Wage Changes: Evidence over the Short and Medium Run Using a Pre-Analysis Plan

Jeffrey Clemens and Michael Strain

29263: The Long-Term Effects of Industrial Policy

Jaedo Choi and Andrei Levchenko