NBER Working Papers

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11978: Comparing the Point Predictions and Subjective Probability Distributions of Professional Forecasters

Joseph Engelberg, Charles Manski and Jared Williams

11977: The Health Care Safety Net and Crowd-Out of Private Health Insurance

Anthony T. Lo Sasso and Bruce Meyer

11976: Consumption, Income, and Material Well-Being After Welfare Reform

Bruce Meyer and James Sullivan

11975: Health Insurance and the Wage Gap

Helen Levy

11974: Lifecycle Asset Allocation Strategies and the Distribution of 401(k) Retirement Wealth

James Poterba, Joshua Rauh, Steven Venti and David Wise

11973: Capital Controls: An Evaluation

Nicolas Magud and Carmen Reinhart

11972: The Median Voter and the Median Consumer: Local Private Goods and Residential Sorting

Joel Waldfogel

11971: A Phillips Curve with an Ss Foundation

Mark Gertler and John Leahy

11970: Incentives and Effort in the Public Sector: Have U.S. Education Reforms Increased Teachers' Work Hours?

Christiana Stoddard and Peter Kuhn

11969: From Forced Busing to Free Choice in Public Schools: Quasi-Experimental Evidence of Individual and General Effects

Victor Lavy

11968: Examining the Effect of the Earned Income Tax Credit on the Labor Market Participation of Families on Welfare

V. Joseph Hotz and John Scholz

11967: Private Information, Wage Bargaining and Employment Fluctuations

John Kennan

11966: Lessons From the Debt-Deflation Theory of Sudden Stops

Enrique Mendoza

11965: Changing the Boston School Choice Mechanism

Atila Abdulkadiroglu, Parag Pathak, Alvin Roth and Tayfun Sönmez

11964: Household Ownership of Variable Annuities

Jeffrey Brown and James Poterba

11963: The Determinants of Mortality

David Cutler, Angus Deaton and Adriana Lleras-Muney

11962: Multi-Period Corporate Default Prediction With Stochastic Covariates

Darrell Duffie, Leandro Siata and Ke Wang

11961: Common Failings: How Corporate Defaults are Correlated

Sanjiv Das, Darrell Duffie, Nikunj Kapadia and Leandro Saita

11960: The Negative Trade-off Between Risk and Incentives: Evidence from the American Whaling Industry

Eric Hilt

11959: Dividend Taxes and Firm Valuation: New Evidence

Alan Auerbach and Kevin Hassett

11958: Production Targets

Guillermo Caruana and Liran Einav

11957: Structural Estimation of Caloric Intake, Exercise, Smoking, and Obesity

Inas Rashad

11956: Nutrition Labels and Obesity

Jayachandran N. Variyam and John Cawley

11955: The Evolution of Top Incomes: A Historical and International Perspective

Thomas Piketty and Emmanuel Saez

11954: The Long Run Impact of Bombing Vietnam

Edward Miguel and Gérard Roland

11953: The Quiet Revolution that Transformed Women's Employment, Education, and Family

Claudia Goldin

11952: The Social Cost of Foreign Exchange Reserves

Dani Rodrik

11951: Health Insurance Take-up by the Near Elderly

Thomas Buchmueller and Sabina Ohri

11950: The Value of Stock Options to Non-Executive Employees

Kevin Hallock and Craig Olson

11949: Did Medicare Induce Pharmaceutical Innovation?

Daron Acemoglu, David Cutler, Amy Finkelstein and Joshua Linn

11948: Intangible Capital and Economic Growth

Carol Corrado, Charles R. Hulten and Daniel Sichel

11947: What's So Special about China's Exports?

Dani Rodrik

11946: Assessing the Sources of Changes in the Volatility of Real Growth

Stephen Cecchetti, Alfonso Flores-Lagunes and Stefan Krause Montalbert

11945: A Tax-Based Estimate of the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution

Jonathan Gruber

11944: Innovation and Incentives: Evidence from Corporate R&D

Josh Lerner and Julie Wulf

11943: Life-Cycle Variation in the Association between Current and Lifetime Earnings

Steven Haider and Gary Solon

11942: Robust Optimal Policy in a Forward-Looking Model with Parameter and Shock Uncertainty

Marc Giannoni

11941: Estimating the Intertemporal Risk-Return Tradeoff Using the Implied Cost of Capital

Lubos Pastor, Meenakshi Sinha and Bhaskaran Swaminathan

11940: Modeling Inefficient Institutions

Daron Acemoglu

11939: Evaluating the Differential Effects of Alternative Welfare-to-Work Training Components: A Re-Analysis of the California GAIN Program

V. Joseph Hotz, Guido Imbens and Jacob A. Klerman

11938: Private Profits and Public Health: Does Advertising Smoking Cessation Products Encourage Smokers to Quit?

Rosemary Avery, Donald Kenkel, Dean R. Lillard and Alan Mathios

11937: Strategic Information Disclosure: The Case of Multi-Attribute Products with Heterogeneous Consumers

V. Joseph Hotz and Mo Xiao

11936: Teacher-Student Matching and the Assessment of Teacher Effectiveness

Charles Clotfelter, Helen Ladd and Jacob Vigdor

11935: Hyperbolic Discounting of Public Goods

W Viscusi and Joel Huber

11934: Regulation of Health, Safety, and Environmental Risks

W Viscusi

11933: Globalization and Developing Countries - A Shrinking Tax Base?

Joshua Aizenman and Yothin Jinjarak

11932: The Long-Term Effects of a Generous Income Support Program: Unemployment Insurance in New Brunswick and Maine, 1940-1991

Peter Kuhn and Chris Riddell

11931: Steam Power, Establishment Size, and Labor Productivity Growth in Nineteenth Century American Manufacturing

Jeremy Atack, Fred Bateman and Robert Margo

11930: Health Care, Technological Change, and Altruistic Consumption Externalities

Tomas Philipson, Stéphane Mechoulan and Anupam Jena

11929: Macroeconomic Derivatives: An Initial Analysis of Market-Based Macro Forecasts, Uncertainty, and Risk

Refet Gürkaynak and Justin Wolfers

11928: Five Facts You Need to Know About Technology Diffusion

Diego Comin, Bart Hobijn and Emilie Rovito

11927: The Political Economy of "Truth-in-Advertising" Regulation During the Progressive Era

Zeynep Hansen and Marc Law

11926: Service Offshoring and Productivity: Evidence from the United States

Mary Amiti and Shang-Jin Wei

11925: Happiness and the Human Development Index: Australia is Not a Paradox

Andrew Leigh and Justin Wolfers

11924: Female Socialization: How Daughters Affect Their Legislator Fathers' Voting on Women's Issues

Ebonya Washington

11923: The Economics of Climate Change

Lawrence H. Goulder and William Pizer

11922: Overconfidence, Subjective Perception and Pricing Behavior

Pierpaolo Benigno and Anastasios Karantounias

11921: The U.S. Current Account Deficit and the Expected Share of World Output

Charles Engel and John Rogers

11920: Early Decisions: A Regulatory Framework

John Beshears, James Choi, David Laibson and Brigitte Madrian

11919: Capitalizing Patriotism: The Liberty Loans of World War I

Sung Won Kang and Hugh Rockoff

11918: When to Start a Fight and When to Fight Back: Liability Disputes in the Workers' Compensation System

David Card and Brian McCall

11917: The Impact of Academic Patenting on the Rate, Quality, and Direction of (Public) Research Output

Pierre Azoulay, Waverly Ding and Toby Stuart

11916: Measuring the Value of a Statistical Life: Problems and Prospects

Orley Ashenfelter

11915: How Black Candidates Affect Voter Turnout

Ebonya Washington

11914: Financial Expertise of Directors

A. Burak Güner, Ulrike Malmendier and Geoffrey Tate

11913: On Overborrowing

Martín Uribe

11912: Financial Globalization, Corporate Governance, and Eastern Europe

René Stulz

11911: The Scots may be Brave but They are Neither Healthy Nor Happy

David Bell and David Blanchflower

11910: Sticking with Your Vote: Cognitive Dissonance and Voting

Sendhil Mullainathan and Ebonya Washington

11909: Neighborhoods and Academic Achievement: Results from the Moving to Opportunity Experiment

Lisa Sanbonmatsu, Jeffrey Kling, Greg Duncan and Jeanne Brooks-Gunn

11908: Who Should Govern Congress? Access to Power and the Salary Grab of 1873

Lee Alston, Jeffery A. Jenkins and Tomas Nonnenmacher

11907: Executive Pensions

Lucian Bebchuk and Robert J. Jackson, Jr.

11906: International Stock Return Comovements

Geert Bekaert, Robert Hodrick and Xiaoyan Zhang

11905: What You Export Matters

Ricardo Hausmann, Jason Hwang and Dani Rodrik

11904: Remedying Education: Evidence from Two Randomized Experiments in India

Abhijit Banerjee, Shawn Cole, Esther Duflo and Leigh Linden

11903: CAPM Over the Long Run: 1926-2001

Andrew Ang and Joseph Chen

11902: The Myth of the Drinker's Bonus

Philip J Cook and Bethany Peters

11901: Why Doesn't Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries? An Empirical Investigation

Laura Alfaro, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan and Vadym Volosovych

11900: Markov Perfect Industry Dynamics with Many Firms

Gabriel Weintraub, C. Lanier Benkard and Ben Van Roy

11899: The Greatest Artists of the Twentieth Century

David Galenson

11898: Central Bank Communication and Policy Effectiveness

Michael Woodford

11897: The Role of Foreign Currency Debt in Financial Crises: 1880-1913 vs. 1972-1997

Michael Bordo and Christopher Meissner

11896: Robustly Optimal Monetary Policy with Near Rational Expectations

Michael Woodford

11895: The Expanding Workweek? Understanding Trends in Long Work Hours Among U.S. Men, 1979-2004

Peter Kuhn and Fernando Lozano

11894: Internationalization and Stock Market Liquidity

Ross Levine and Sergio Schmukler

11893: Psychiatric Disorders and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from the National Latino and Asian American Study

Pinka Chatterji, Margarita Alegria, Mingshan Lu and David Takeuchi

11892: What's Psychology Worth? A Field Experiment in the Consumer Credit Market

Marianne Bertrand, Dean Karlin, Sendhil Mullainathan, Eldar Shafir and Jonathan Zinman

11891: Is Financial Globalization Beneficial?

Frederic Mishkin

11890: Neckties in the Tropics: A Model of International Trade and Cultural Diversity

James Rauch and Vitor Trindade

11889: Life After Kyoto: Alternative Approaches to Global Warming

William Nordhaus

11888: Mismatch

Robert Shimer

11887: Measuring Aggregate Productivity Growth Using Plant-Level Data

Amil Petrin and James Levinsohn

11886: Firm Expansion and CEO Pay

Lucian Bebchuk and Yaniv Grinstein

11885: Contractual Versus Generic Outsourcing: The Role of Proximity

Robert Feenstra and Barbara Spencer

11884: Did Vasco da Gama Matter for European Markets? Testing Frederick Lane's Hypotheses Fifty Years Later

Kevin O'Rourke and Jeffrey Williamson

11883: The Law and Economics of Self-Dealing

Simeon Djankov, Rafael LaPorta, Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes and Andrei Shleifer

11882: Investor Sentiment and Corporate Finance: Micro and Macro

Owen Lamont and Jeremy Stein

11881: The Demand for Social Interaction

Henry Saffer

11880: Monitoring Works: Getting Teachers to Come to School

Esther Duflo and Rema Hanna

11879: Fast-Food Restaurant Advertising on Television and Its Influence on Childhood Obesity

Shin-Yi Chou, Inas Rashad and Michael Grossman