NBER Working Papers

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34762: The Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Policy Uncertainty

Konstantinos Gavriilidis, Diego Känzig, Ramya Raghavan and James Stock

34761: Clientelism: How It Works, Why It Persists and How to Break It

Jimmy Graham, Horacio Larreguy and Pablo Querubin

34760: Mapping Technological Trajectories: Evidence from Two Centuries of Patent Data

Antonin Bergeaud, Ruveyda Nur Gozen and John van Reenen

34759: Poverty and Dependency in the United States, 1939–2023

Richard Burkhauser and Kevin Corinth

34758: The Redistributive Effects of Federal Medicaid Outlays Across Counties: Evidence from the ACA

Laura Montenovo, Kosali Simon and Coady Wing

34757: What Happens When Dating Goes Online? Evidence from U.S. Marriage Markets and Health Outcomes

Daniel Ershov, Jessica Fong and Pinar Yildirim

34756: Wedges: A Microeconomic Perspective on Misallocation

Lauren F. Bergquist, Danial Lashkari and Eric Verhoogen

34755: Learning to Quit? A Multi-Year, Multi-Site Field Experiment with Innovation-Driven Entrepreneurs

Esther Bailey, Daniel Fehder, Eric Floyd, Yael Hochberg and Daniel J. Lee

34754: The Macroeconomic Effects of Neighborhood Policies: a Dynamic Analysis

Alessandra Fogli, Veronica Guerrieri, Mark Ponder and Marta Prato

34753: Psychology and Development: Applications from Cognitive and Social Psychology

Emily Breza and Supreet Kaur

34752: The Response of Debtors to Rate Changes

Andreas Fuster, Virginia Gianinazzi, Andreas Hackethal, Philip Schnorpfeil and Michael Weber

34751: Industrial Activity, State Capacity, and Deforestation: Evidence from Brazil

Daniel Da Mata, Mario Dotta and Edson Severnini

34750: Effective and Scalable Programs to Facilitate Labor Market Transitions for Women in Technology

Susan Athey and Emil Palikot

34749: Understanding Latin America’s Fertility Decline: Age, Education, and Cohort Dynamics

Milagros Onofri, Inés Berniell, Raquel Fernandez and Azul Menduiña

34748: A Macroeconomic Perspective on Stock Market Valuation Ratios

Andrew Atkeson, Jonathan Heathcote and Fabrizio Perri

34747: A Few Bad Apples? Academic Dishonesty, Political Selection, and Institutional Performance in China

Zhuang Liu, Wenwei Peng and Shaoda Wang

34746: Scaling Sustainable Investing in Emerging and Developing Economies: Frictions and Opportunities

Caroline Flammer, Thomas Giroux and Geoffrey Heal

34745: Behavioral Economics of AI: LLM Biases and Corrections

Pietro Bini, Lin Cong, Xing Huang and Lawrence Jin

34744: The United States as an Active Industrial Policy Nation

Jiandong Ju, Yuankun Li and Shang-Jin Wei

34743: Consumer Demand and Market Competition with Time-Intensive Goods

Joseph Goodman, Lancelot Henry de Frahan, Justin Holz, John List, Niall MacMenamin, Evan C. McKay, Magne Mogstad, Sally Sadoff and Hal Sider

34742: The Dynamics of Retail Deposit Balances

Bronson Argyle, Benjamin Iverson, Jason Kotter, Taylor D. Nadauld and Christopher Palmer

34741: The Demand for Grandchildren: Children as Family Public Goods and Implications for Cooperative Bargaining

Janice Compton and Robert Pollak

34740: Current Account Deficits and the Welfare of Future Generations

Christopher Phelan

34739: Is the Environmental Exposure Gap Shrinking? Evidence from an Extreme Multi-exposure Index

Glenn Sheriff, Danae Hernandez-Cortes, Chakraborty Tc and Theresa DeConcini

34738: The Informational Role of Emission Markets: Prices vs Quantities with Dispersed Information About Externalities

Derek Lemoine

34737: Measuring the Growth of Skills

James Heckman, Haihan Tian, Zijian Zhang and Jin Zhou

34736: College Major Choice, Payoffs, and Gender Gaps

Christopher Campos, Pablo Muñoz, Alonso Bucarey and Dante Contreras

34735: Economic Development and the Environment

B. Kelsey Jack and Nicholas Ryan

34734: War and Democratic Backsliding

Efraim Benmelech and João Monteiro

34733: Does Generative AI Crowd Out Human Creators? Evidence from Pixiv

Sueyoul Kim, Ginger Zhe Jin and Eungik Lee

34732: The Twenty-four Hour Economy or Rolled-up Sidewalks: Trends in Work Timing and Their Causes

Jeff Biddle and Daniel Hamermesh

34731: Salience and the Elasticity of Taxable Income: Evidence from Top-bracket Tax Reforms

Xavier Dufour, Pierre-Carl Michaud and Michael Smart

34730: Technology and Economic Development

Daron Acemoglu, Ufuk Akcigit and Simon Johnson

34729: No Taxation Without Administration: Bringing The State Back Into The Public Finance Of Developing Countries

Anders Jensen and Jonathan L. Weigel

34728: Global Trade, Tariff Uncertainty and the U.S. Dollar

Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Can Soylu and Muhammed A. Yildirim

34727: Rational Disagreement

Nabil Al-Najjar and Harald Uhlig

34726: The Contribution of College Majors to Gender and Racial Earnings Differences

Scott Imberman, Michael Lovenheim, Patrick Massey, Kevin Stange and Rodney J. Andrews

34725: Senior Migration, Local Economic Development and Spatial Concentration

Marco A. Badilla Maroto, Benjamin Faber, Antoine B. Levy and Mathilde Muñoz

34724: Missing Black Men? The Impact of Non-Reporting on Estimates of Labor Market Outcomes for Black Men

Adrienne Sabety and Ariella K. Spitzer

34723: Modeling the Labor Implications of the Energy Transition

Marc Hafstead and Roberton Williams

34722: Speculative Growth and the AI "Bubble"

Ricardo Caballero

34721: Migration and the Making of the English Middle Class

Vasiliki Fouka and Theo Serlin

34720: Creating High-Opportunity Neighborhoods: Evidence from the HOPE VI Program

Raj Chetty, Rebecca Diamond, Thomas B. Foster, Lawrence Katz, Sonya Porter, Matthew Staiger and Laura Tach

34719: Financial Crises: History, Theory and New Insights

Eric Hilt

34718: Structural Change and Jobless Development

Franziska Ohnsorge, Richard Rogerson and Zoe Xie

34717: Global Imbalances and Power Imbalances

Christopher Clayton, Matteo Maggiori and Jesse Schreger

34716: Gender Norms and the Labor Market

Patricia Cortes, Jisoo Hwang, Jessica Pan and Uta Schönberg

34715: You Only Live Twice: Financial Inflows and Growth in a Westward-Facing Ukraine

Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Maurice Obstfeld

34714: Measuring Efficiency and Equity Framing in Economics Research: LLM-Based Evidence from 1950 to 2021

Sebastian Galiani, Ramiro Gálvez, Franco Mettola La Giglia and Raul A. Sosa

34713: Teaching Economics to the Machines

Hui Chen, Yuhan Cheng, Yanchu Liu and Ke Tang

34712: A Model of Artificial Jagged Intelligence

Joshua Gans

34711: Business Concentration around the World: 1900-2020

Yueran Ma, Mengdi Zhang and Kaspar Zimmermann

34710: FinTech and Customer Capital

Bianca He, Lauren Mostrom and Amir Sufi

34709: AI in Charge: Large-Scale Experimental Evidence on Electric Vehicle Charging Demand

Robert Metcalfe, Andrew Schein, Cohen R. Simpson and Yixin Sun

34708: Pricing Residential Mortgage Credit Risk in the Post-GFC Era

Agostino Capponi, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh and Xinkai Wu

34707: Never Enough: Dynamic Status Incentives in Organizations

Leonardo Bursztyn, Ewan Rawcliffe and Hans-Joachim Voth

34706: Marginal Admission to Elite High Schools: Long-run Effects on Labor Market Outcomes

Francisco J. Cabrera-Hernández, Andrew Dustan, Daniel Osuna Gomez and María Padilla-Romo

34705: How Adaptable Are American Workers to AI-Induced Job Displacement?

Sam J. Manning and Tomás Aguirre

34704: Tenure-Dependent Severance Costs and Labor Market Dynamics over the Life Cycle

Calebe Figueiredo and Neville Francis

34703: Aggregate Productivity with Discrete Choice

David Baqaee and Ariel Burstein

34702: Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets

Anthony M. Diercks, Jared Dean Katz and Jonathan Wright

34701: Research to Improve the Quality, Impact, and Value of Home and Community-Based Services

Jacob M. Sims Speyer, Ari Ne'eman, Norma Coe and Ellen Meara

34700: The Distributional Effects of Cost-Sharing in a Universal Healthcare System

Simon S. Bensnes, Ingrid Huitfeldt and Victoria Marone

34699: Monopsony, Markdowns, and Minimum Wages

Ester Faia, Benjamin Lochner and Benjamin Schoefer

34698: SNAP Work Requirements, Administrative Burden and Procedural Denials

Jason Cook, Elizabeth Cox and Chloe East

34697: Party Pressure and Representation

Chad Kendall

34696: Why is the Mental Health of the Youngest American Workers in Decline?

David Blanchflower and Alex Bryson

34695: Hitting Rock Bottom: Economic Hardship and Cheating

Livia Alfonsi, Michal Bauer, Julie Chytilová and Edward Miguel

34694: The Geography of Science

Abhishek Nagaraj and Randol Yao

34693: Customer Overlap and Diversion Ratios

Liran Einav, Mariana D. Guido and Peter J. Klenow

34692: Skipping the Factory: Service-Led Growth and Structural Transformation in the Developing World

Michael Peters, Youdan Zhang and Fabrizio Zilibotti

34691: Ricardian Non-Equivalence

Martin Eichenbaum, Joao Guerreiro and Jana Obradovic

34690: AI-Enhanced Handheld ECGs to Screen for Prior Myocardial Infarction in Rural India

Jenny Wang, Alexander Schubert, Nikhil Kanakamedala, Madeline McKelway, Luke Messac, Cyrus Reginald, Frank Schilbach, T.S. Selvavinayagam, Girija Vaidyanathan, Esther Duflo and Ziad Obermeyer

34689: Financial Globalization: Risk Sharing or Risk Exposure?

Enrique Mendoza and Vincenzo Quadrini

34688: Capital Flows in a World Starved for Liquidity: Analysis and Policy Implications

Enrique Mendoza and Vincenzo Quadrini

34687: How Restrictive is U.S. Trade Policy?

Michael Waugh

34686: Subcontracting in Federal Spending: Micro and Macro Implications

Geumbi Park, Xiaoqing Zhou and Sarah Zubairy

34685: Unlocking Occupational Opportunity: The Labor Market Effects of DACA

Aimee Chin, Kalena Cortes and Camila Morales

34684: Community College Bachelor’s Degrees: How CCB Graduates’ Earnings Compare to AAs and BAs

Riley Acton, Camila Morales, Kalena Cortes, Julia A. Turner and Lois Miller

34683: How In-School Supervised Ed-Tech Support Produces Massive Learning Gains: A Khan Academy Field Experiment in India

Philip Oreopoulos, Oliver Keyes-Krysakowski and Deepak Agarwal

34682: Re-Examining Geographic Variation in Health and Health Care

Amy Finkelstein and Matthew Gentzkow

34681: Firm Emissions and Credit Allocation

Grace Weishi Gu, Galina Hale, Bhavyaa Sharma and Jinhong Wu

34680: Platform Work: Evidence from Drivers in India, Indonesia, and Kenya

Achyuta Adhvaryu, Martin Atela, Valentina Brailovskaya, Priyanka Dua, Jenny Susan John, Pratibha Joshi and Rivandra Royono

34679: Transformed Intermediation: Credit Risk to NBFIs, Liquidity Risk to Banks

Viral Acharya, Nicola Cetorelli and Bruce Tuckman

34678: Do GLP-1 Medications Pay for Themselves?

Coady Wing, Sih-Ting Cai, Daniel W. Sacks and Kosali Simon

34677: The Impact of Preschool Entry Age on Children’s Behavioral and Developmental Health in Medicaid

Maya Rossin-Slater, Adrienne Sabety and Aileen Wu

34676: Corporate Intent

Augustin Landier, Parinitha R. Sastry and David Thesmar

34675: Experiences, Expectations, and Asset Prices

Stefan Nagel

34674: The Economics of Scaling Early Childhood Programs: Lessons from The Chicago School

John List

34673: Legalizing Cannabis: Implications for Child Maltreatment

Weiwei Chen, Johanna Maclean and Michael French

34672: How Globalization Unravels: A Ricardian Model of Endogenous Trade Policy

Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, Tomohide Mineyama and Dongho Song

34671: With or Without U? Binning Bias and the Causal Effects of Temperature Extremes

Benjamin Jones, Jacob Moscona, Benjamin Olken and Cristine von Dessauer

34670: Effective Protection with Global Value Chains

Emily Blanchard, Mitchell W. Boice and Robert Johnson

34669: Price Discrimination with Costless Resale

Joshua Gans

34668: Automation Experiments and Inequality

Seth Gordon Benzell and Kyle Myers

34667: Weighing the Impacts of GLP-1s: Quasi-Experimental Evidence From Provider Adoption

Sam Bock, Jasmin Moshfegh and Jonathan Zhang

34666: State and Time-Dependent Pricing

Philip Bunn, Nicholas Bloom, Craig Menzies, Paul Mizen, Gregory Thwaites and Ivan Yotzov

34665: Brexit and UK Migration: Germany-Benchmarked Evidence on Structural and Reallocation Shifts

Assaf Razin

34664: Global Stratification Economics (GSE): A Primer - Definitions and Research Implications

Alan A. Aja, Anita Alves Pena and Mary Lopez

34663: The Impacts of Parole Supervision

Luke D. Brinkman, Andrew Jordan and Derek Neal