NBER Working Papers

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30676: Does "Made in China 2025" Work for China? Evidence from Chinese Listed Firms

Lee Branstetter and Guangwei Li

30675: How Much Lifetime Social Security Benefits Are Americans Leaving On the Table?

David Altig, Laurence Kotlikoff and Victor Yifan Ye

30674: Does War Foster Cooperation or Parochialism? Evidence from a Natural Experiment among Turkish Conscripts

Arzu Kibris and Resul Cesur

30673: Global Profit Shifting, 1975-2019

Ludvig S. Wier and Gabriel Zucman

30672: Scope, Scale and Concentration: The 21st Century Firm

Gerard Hoberg and Gordon Phillips

30671: Intellectual Property Protection Lost and Competition: An Examination Using Machine Learning

Utku U. Acikalin, Tolga Caskurlu, Gerard Hoberg and Gordon Phillips

30670: Can Anti-Vaping Policies Curb Drinking Externalities? Evidence from E-Cigarette Taxation and Traffic Fatalities

Dhaval Dave, Yang Liang, Johanna Maclean, Joseph J. Sabia and Matthew Braaksma

30669: Targeting Precision Medicine: Evidence from Prenatal Screening

Peter Conner, Liran Einav, Amy Finkelstein, Petra Persson and Heidi Williams

30668: Distributional Effects of Local Minimum Wages: A Spatial Job Search Approach

Petra Todd and Weilong Zhang

30667: Should Central Banks Have an Inequality Objective?

Roberto Chang

30666: US Immigration from Latin America in Historical Perspective

Gordon Hanson, Pia Orrenius and Madeline Zavodny

30665: Can Information and Advising Affect Postsecondary Participation and Attainment for Non-Traditional Students? Evidence from a Large-Scale Experiment with the U.S. Army

Andrew Barr, Kelli A. Bird, Ben Castleman and William Skimmyhorn

30664: Firm Responses to State Hiring Subsidies: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from a Tax Credit Formula

Benjamin Hyman, Matthew Freedman, Shantanu Khanna and David Neumark

30663: The Gift of a Lifetime: The Hospital, Modern Medicine, and Mortality

Alex Hollingsworth, Krzysztof Karbownik, Melissa Thomasson and Anthony Wray

30662: The Remote Work Revolution: Impact on Real Estate Values and the Urban Environment

Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

30661: Who Benefits from Hazardous Waste Cleanups? Evidence from the Housing Market

Alecia Cassidy, Elaine Hill and Lala Ma

30660: Sea Level Rise Exposure and Municipal Bond Yields

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Matthew T. Gustafson, Ryan C. Lewis and Michael Schwert

30659: Automation and the Workforce: A Firm-Level View from the 2019 Annual Business Survey

Daron Acemoglu, Gary W. Anderson, David N. Beede, Catherine Buffington, Eric E. Childress, Emin Dinlersoz, Lucia Foster, Nathan Goldschlag, John Haltiwanger, Zachary Kroff, Pascual Restrepo and Nikolas Zolas

30658: Heterogeneity in Damages from A Pandemic

Amy Finkelstein, Geoffrey Kocks, Maria Polyakova and Victoria Udalova

30657: The Big Three and Board Gender Diversity: The Effectiveness of Shareholder Voice

Todd A. Gormley, Vishal K. Gupta, David A. Matsa, Sandra C. Mortal and Lukai Yang

30656: Collaboration Between and Within Groups

Matias Iaryczower, Santiago Oliveros and Parth Parihar

30655: Identification and Estimation of Continuous-Time Job Search Models with Preference Shocks

Peter Arcidiacono, Attila Gyetvai, Arnaud Maurel and Ekaterina S. Jardim

30654: Investment and Subjective Uncertainty

Nicholas Bloom, Steven Davis, Lucia Foster, Scott Ohlmacher and Itay Saporta-Eksten

30653: Public Childcare, Labor Market Outcomes of Caregivers, and Child Development: Experimental Evidence from Brazil

Orazio Attanasio, Ricardo Paes de Barros, Pedro Carneiro, David Evans, Lycia Lima, Pedro Olinto and Norbert Schady

30652: Inflation and Capital Flows

Julien Bengui and Louphou Coulibaly

30651: Experience Rating as an Automatic Stabilizer

Mark Duggan, Andrew Johnston and Audrey Guo

30650: Trade and Selection with Heterogeneous Firms and Perfect Competition

Xue Bai, Arpita Chatterjee, Kala Krishna and Hong Ma

30649: The Economics of Carbon Accounting and Carbon Offsets

Geoffrey Heal

30648: Valuing Excess Deaths Caused by Climate Change

R. Daniel Bressler and Geoffrey Heal

30647: The Effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic Recession on Less Educated Women's Human Capital: Some Projections

Mark M. Drozd, Robert Moffitt and Xinyu Zhao

30646: Racial and Ethnic Inequality and the China Shock

Lisa B. Kahn, Lindsay Oldenski and Geunyong Park

30645: Communicating Social Security Reform

Andrew Caplin, Eungik Lee, Søren Leth-Petersen and Johan Sæverud

30644: From Lapdogs to Watchdogs: Random Auditor Assignment and Municipal Fiscal Performance

Silvia Vannutelli

30643: Do Pandemics Change Healthcare? Evidence from the Great Influenza

Rui Esteves, Kris James Mitchener, Peter Nencka and Melissa Thomasson

30642: Shared Models in Networks, Organizations, and Groups

Joshua Schwartzstein and Adi Sunderam

30641: Bank Risk and Stockholding (1910-1934)

Matthew Jaremski

30640: How Has COVID-19 Impacted Disability Employment?

Ari Ne'eman and Nicole Maestas

30639: The Regulation of Medical AI: Policy Approaches, Data, and Innovation Incentives

Ariel Dora Stern

30638: A New Test for Market Efficiency and Uncovered Interest Parity

Richard Baillie, Francis Diebold, George Kapetanios and Kun Ho Kim

30637: Firm Sorting and Spatial Inequality

Ilse Lindenlaub, Ryungha Oh and Michael Peters

30636: A New Racial Disparity in Traffic Fatalities

Aaron Chalfin and Maxim N. Massenkoff

30635: Deferred Acceptance with News Utility

Bnaya Dreyfuss, Ofer Glicksohn, Ori Heffetz and Assaf Romm

30634: Give Me a Pass: Flexible Credit for Entrepreneurs in Colombia

Lasse Brune, Xavier Gine and Dean Karlan

30633: Smiles in Profiles: Improving Fairness and Efficiency Using Estimates of User Preferences in Online Marketplaces

Susan Athey, Dean Karlan, Emil Palikot and Yuan Yuan

30632: Effects of the Earned Income Tax Credit for Childless Adults: A Regression Discontinuity Approach

Jonathan Meer and Joshua Witter

30631: Legal Activism, State Policy, and Racial Inequality in Teacher Salaries and Educational Attainment in the Mid-Century American South

Elizabeth Cascio and Ethan Lewis

30630: Disaggregated Economic Accounts

Asger L. Andersen, Kilian Huber, Niels Johannesen, Ludwig Straub and Emil Toft Vestergaard

30629: How Substitutable Are Workers? Evidence from Worker Deaths

Simon Jäger and Jörg Heining

30628: The NBER Orange Book Dataset: A User’s Guide

Maya Durvasula, C. Scott Hemphill, Lisa Ouellette, Bhaven Sampat and Heidi Williams

30627: Heterogeneity in School Value-Added and the Private Premium

Tahir Andrabi, Natalie Bau, Jishnu Das and Asim Khwaja

30626: Air Quality and Suicide

Claudia Persico and Dave Marcotte

30625: Marriage Matching over Five Centuries in China

Carol H. Shiue and Wolfgang Keller

30624: Legalizing Entrepreneurship

Dany Bahar, Bo Cowgill and Jorge Guzman

30623: National Wage Setting

Jonathon Hazell, Christina Patterson, Heather Sarsons and Bledi Taska

30622: The Effects of Combat Deployments on Veterans' Outcomes

Jesse M. Bruhn, Kyle Greenberg, Matthew Gudgeon, Evan K. Rose and Yotam Shem-Tov

30621: Subjective Performance Evaluation, Influence Activities, and Bureaucratic Work Behavior: Evidence from China

Alain de Janvry, Guojun He, Elisabeth Sadoulet, Shaoda Wang and Qiong Zhang

30620: Opening the Black Box: Task and Skill Mix and Productivity Dispersion

Glenn Blackwood, Cindy Cunningham, Matthew Dey, Lucia Foster, Cheryl Grim, John Haltiwanger, Rachel Nesbit, Sabrina Pabilonia, Jay Stewart, Cody Tuttle and Zoltán Wolf

30619: An Optimal Mechanism to Fund the Development of Vaccines Against Emerging Epidemics

Christopher Snyder, Kendall Hoyt and Dimitrios Gouglas

30618: The Impact of Large-Scale Social Media Advertising Campaigns on COVID-19 Vaccination: Evidence from Two Randomized Controlled Trials

Lisa Y. Ho, Emily Breza, Marcella Alsan, Abhijit Banerjee, Arun Chandrasekhar, Fatima Cody Stanford, Renato Fior, Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Kelly Holland, Emily Hoppe, Louis-Maël Jean, Lucy Ogbu-Nwobodo, Benjamin Olken, Carlos Torres, Pierre-Luc Vautrey, Erica Warner and Esther Duflo

30617: The Economics of Women's Rights

Michele Tertilt, Matthias Doepke, Anne Hannusch and Laura Montenbruck

30616: Improving Household Debt Management with Robo-Advice

Ida Chak, Karen Croxson, Francesco D’Acunto, Jonathan Reuter, Alberto G. Rossi and Jonathan Shaw

30615: The Effect of Performance Pay Incentives on Market Frictions: Evidence from Medicare

Atul Gupta, Guy David and Lucy (Kunhee) Kim

30614: Regression Discontinuity Evidence on the Effectiveness of the Minimum Legal E-Cigarette Purchasing Age

Jeffrey DeSimone, Daniel S. Grossman and Nicolas Ziebarth

30613: Understanding U.S. Inflation During the COVID Era

Laurence Ball, Daniel Leigh and Prachi Mishra

30612: AI, Skill, and Productivity: The Case of Taxi Drivers

Kyogo Kanazawa, Daiji Kawaguchi, Hitoshi Shigeoka and Yasutora Watanabe

30611: The Impact of Joint versus Separate Prediction Mode on Forecasting Accuracy

Alex Imas, Minah H. Jung, Silvia Saccardo and Joachim Vosgerau

30610: Parenting Promotes Social Mobility Within and Across Generations

Jorge Luis Garcia and James Heckman

30609: The U.S. Postal Savings System and the Collapse of B&Ls During the Great Depression

Sebastian Fleitas, Matthew Jaremski and Steven Sprick Schuster

30608: The Productivity of Professions: Evidence from the Emergency Department

David C. Chan and Yiqun Chen

30607: Artificial Intelligence, the Evolution of the Healthcare Value Chain, and the Future of the Physician

David Dranove and Craig Garthwaite

30606: Should Mothers Work? How Perceptions of the Social Norm Affect Individual Attitudes Toward Work in the U.S

Patricia Cortes, Gizem Kosar, Jessica Pan and Basit Zafar

30605: Epidemiological Expectations

Christopher Carroll and Tao Wang

30604: Why Do Startups Become Unicorns Instead of Going Public?

Daria Davydova, Ruediger Fahlenbrach, Leandro Sanz and René M. Stulz

30603: Mapping the Knowledge Space: Exploiting Unassisted Machine Learning Tools

Florenta Teodoridis, Jino Lu and Jeffrey L. Furman

30602: The Ex-Ante Moral Hazard Effects of COVID-19 Vaccines

Virat Agrawal, Neeraj Sood and Christopher Whaley

30601: A Theory of Fiscal Responsibility and Irresponsibility

Marina Halac and Pierre Yared

30600: Modeling Machine Learning: A Cognitive Economic Approach

Andrew Caplin, Daniel Martin and Philip Marx

30599: Overweight Grandsons and Grandfathers' Starvation Exposure

Dora Costa

30598: Economic Activity Across Space: A Supply and Demand Approach

Treb Allen and Costas Arkolakis

30597: Cross-Border Mergers and Acquisitions

Isil Erel, Yeejin Jang and Michael Weisbach

30596: Economic Impact Payments and Household Spending During the Pandemic

Jonathan Parker, Jake Schild, Laura Erhard and David Johnson

30595: Socioeconomic Status and Access to Mental Health Care: The Case of Psychiatric Medications for Children in Ontario Canada

Janet Currie, Paul Kurdyak and Jonathan Zhang

30594: Financial Intermediation and the Funding of Biomedical Innovation: A Review

Andrew Lo and Richard Thakor

30593: The Electric Ceiling: Limits and Costs of Full Electrification

David Rapson and James Bushnell

30592: The Missing Middle Managers: Labor Costs, Firm Structure, and Development

Jonas Hjort, Hannes Malmberg and Todd Schoellman

30591: Housing Wealth and Consumption: The Role of Heterogeneous Credit Constraints

S. Boragan Aruoba, Ronel Elul and Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan

30590: Global Knowledge and Trade Flows: Theory and Measurement

Nelson Lind and Natalia Ramondo

30589: The Effect of Low-Skill Immigration Restrictions on US Firms and Workers: Evidence from a Randomized Lottery

Michael Clemens and Ethan Lewis

30588: Can Social Media Rhetoric Incite Hate Incidents? Evidence from Trump's "Chinese Virus" Tweets

Andy Cao, Jason Lindo and Jiee Zhong

30587: Carbon Emissions Trading and Environmental Protection: International Evidence

Jennie Bai and Hong Ru

30586: Labor-Market Power, Deadweight Loss, and Technology Adoption

Michael Rubens

30585: Information Aggregation and Transmission in Strategic Networks

Fan-chin Kung and Ping Wang

30584: A North-South Model of Structural Change and Growth

Maria Aristizabal-Ramirez, John Leahy and Linda Tesar

30583: U.S Electric Utility Adaptation to Natural Disasters Shocks and Green Power Mandates

Robert Huang and Matthew Kahn

30582: African Political Institutions and the Impact of Colonialism

Jutta Bolt, Leigh Gardner, Jennifer Kohler, Jack Paine and James Robinson

30581: When Information Conflicts with Obligations: the Role of Motivated Cognition

Ao Wang, Shaoda Wang and Xiaoyang Ye

30580: Administrative Burdens and Child Medicaid and CHIP Enrollments

Iris Arbogast, Anna Chorniy and Janet Currie

30579: Mechanics of Spatial Growth

Sheng Cai, Lorenzo Caliendo, Fernando Parro and Wei Xiang

30578: The Early County Business Pattern Files: 1946-1974

Fabian Eckert, Ka-leung Lam, Atif Mian, Karsten Müller, Rafael Schwalb and Amir Sufi

30577: Global Fund Flows and Emerging Market Tail Risk

Anusha Chari, Karlye Dilts Stedman and Christian Lundblad