When Will Arctic Sea Ice Disappear? Projections of Area, Extent, Thickness, and Volume

Francis Diebold, Glenn Rudebusch, Maximilian Göbel, Philippe Goulet Coulombe and Boyuan Zhang ()

No 30732, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Rapidly diminishing Arctic summer sea ice is a strong signal of the pace of global climate change. We provide point, interval, and density forecasts for four measures of Arctic sea ice: area, extent, thickness, and volume. Importantly, we enforce the joint constraint that these measures must simultaneously arrive at an ice-free Arctic. We apply this constrained joint forecast procedure to models relating sea ice to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and models relating sea ice directly to time. The resulting "carbon-trend" and "time-trend" projections are mutually consistent and predict a nearly ice-free summer Arctic Ocean by the mid-2030s with an 80% probability. Moreover, the carbon-trend projections show that global adoption of a lower carbon path would likely delay the arrival of a seasonally ice-free Arctic by only a few years.

JEL-codes: C51 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-12
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Published as Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Maximilian Göbel & Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Boyuan Zhang, 2023. "When will Arctic sea ice disappear? Projections of area, extent, thickness, and volume," Journal of Econometrics, vol 236(2).

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Journal Article: When will Arctic sea ice disappear? Projections of area, extent, thickness, and volume (2023)
Working Paper: When Will Arctic Sea Ice Disappear? Projections of Area, Extent, Thickness, and Volume (2023)
Working Paper: When Will Arctic Sea Ice Disappear? Projections of Area, Extent, Thickness, and Volume (2022)
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