When will Arctic sea ice disappear? Projections of area, extent, thickness, and volume

Francis Diebold, Glenn Rudebusch, Maximilian Göbel, Philippe Goulet Coulombe and Boyuan Zhang

Journal of Econometrics, 2023, vol. 236, issue 2

Abstract: Rapidly diminishing Arctic summer sea ice is a strong signal of the pace of global climate change. We provide point, interval, and density forecasts for four measures of Arctic sea ice: area, extent, thickness, and volume. Importantly, we enforce the joint constraint that these measures must simultaneously arrive at an ice-free Arctic. We apply this constrained joint forecast procedure to models relating sea ice to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and models relating sea ice directly to time. The resulting “carbon-trend” and “time-trend” projections are mutually consistent and predict a nearly ice-free summer Arctic Ocean by the mid-2030s with an 80% probability. Moreover, the carbon-trend projections show that global adoption of a lower carbon path would likely delay the arrival of a seasonally ice-free Arctic by only a few years.

Keywords: Climate change; Cryosphere; Climate prediction; Climate forecasting; Carbon dioxide concentration; Carbon emissions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C51 C52 C53 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Related works:
Working Paper: When Will Arctic Sea Ice Disappear? Projections of Area, Extent, Thickness, and Volume (2023)
Working Paper: When Will Arctic Sea Ice Disappear? Projections of Area, Extent, Thickness, and Volume (2022)
Working Paper: When Will Arctic Sea Ice Disappear? Projections of Area, Extent, Thickness, and Volume (2022)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:econom:v:236:y:2023:i:2:s0304407623001951

DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2023.105479

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