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When Will Arctic Sea Ice Disappear? Projections of Area, Extent, Thickness, and Volume

Francis Diebold (), Glenn Rudebusch (), Maximilian Gobel, Philippe Goulet Coulombe and Boyuan Zhang ()
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Maximilian Gobel: University of Lisbon
Philippe Goulet Coulombe: University of Quebec at Montreal

PIER Working Paper Archive from Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania

Abstract: Rapidly diminishing Arctic summer sea ice is a strong signal of the pace of global climate change. We provide point, interval, and density forecasts for four measures of Arctic sea ice: area, extent, thickness, and volume. Importantly, we enforce the joint constraint that these measures must simultaneously arrive at an ice-free Arctic. We apply this constrained joint forecast procedure to models relating sea ice to cumulative carbon dioxide emissions and models relating sea ice directly to time. The resulting “carbon-trend” and “time-trend” projections are mutually consistent and predict an e?ectively ice-free summer Arctic Ocean by the mid-2030s with an 80% probability. Moreover, the carbon-trend projections show that global adoption of a lower emissions path would likely delay the arrival of a seasonally ice-free Arctic by only a few years.

Keywords: Climate change; climate prediction; climate forecasting; carbon emissions; cryosphere (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C51 C52 C53 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 32 pages
Date: 2022-03-24
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Working Paper: When Will Arctic Sea Ice Disappear? Projections of Area, Extent, Thickness, and Volume (2022) Downloads
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