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PIER Working Paper Archive

From Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania
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21-023: The A?ordable Care Act After a Decade:Its Impact on the Labor Market and the Macro Economy Downloads
Hanming Fang and Dirk Krueger
21-022: Red Scare? A Study of Ethnic Prejudice in the Prosecutions under the Economic Espionage Act Downloads
Hanming Fang and Ming Li
21-021: Aggregative Efficiency of Bayesian Learning in Networks Downloads
Krishna Dasaratha and Kevin He
21-020: Evolutionarily Stable (Mis)specifications:Theory and Applications Downloads
Kevin He and Jonathan Libgober
21-019: A Multi-Agent Model of Misspeci?ed Learning with Overcon?dence Downloads
Cuimin Ba and Alice Gindin
21-018: Robust Model Misspeci?cation and Paradigm Shifts Downloads
Cuimin Ba
21-017: Physician-Induced Demand: Evidence from China’s Drug Price Zero-Markup Policy Downloads
Hanming Fang, Xiaoyan Lei, Julie Shi and Lisa Xuejie Yi
21-016: The Asian Games, Air Pollution and Birth Outcomes in South China: an Instrumental Variable Approach Downloads
Xiaoying Liu, Huazhang Miao, Jere Behrman, Emily Hannum, Zhijiang Liang and Qingguo Zhao
21-015: Fighting COVID-19: Patterns in International Data, Expanded Downloads
Roberto S. Mariano and Suleyman Ozmucur
21-014: Delay the Pension Age or Adjust the Pension Bene?t? Implications for Labor Supply and Individual Welfare in China Downloads
Yuanyuan Deng, Hanming Fang, Katja Hanewald and Shang Wu
21-013: Price Levels, Size, Distribution and Growth of the World Economy: Insights from recent International Comparisons of Prices and Real Product Downloads
Alan Heston and D.S. Prasada Rao
21-012: The Economics of the Public Option:Evidence from Local Pharmaceutical Markets Downloads
Juan Pablo Atal, Jose Ignacio Cuestaann, Felipe González and Cristobal Otero
21-011: Information Spillovers in Sovereign Debt Markets Downloads
Harold Cole, Daniel Neuhann and Guillermo Ordonez
21-010: Adolescent Cognitive Gender Gaps Reflect Differential Dynamic Associations with Undernutrition and Poverty in Preschool and Preadolescent Ages Downloads
Le Thuc Duc and Jere Behrman
21-009: Cryptocurrencies and All That:Two Ideas from Monetary Economics Downloads
Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde
21-008: Has Machine Learning Rendered Simple Rules Obsolete? Downloads
Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde
21-007: Gender Gaps in Cognitive and Noncognitive Skills: Roles of SES and Gender Attitudes Downloads
Justine Herve, Subha Mani, Jere Behrman, Arindam Nandi, Anjana Sankhil Lamkang and Ramanan Laxminarayan
21-006: Allocation Mechanisms Without Reduction Downloads
David Dillenberger and Uzi Segal
21-005: Learning with Heterogeneous Misspecfied Models: Characterization and Robustness Downloads
Aislinn Bohren and Daniel N. Hauser
21-004: Maternal Undernutrition in Adolescence and Child Human Capital Formation over the Life-Course: Evidence from an International Cohort Study Downloads
Andreas Georgiadis, Liza Benny, Paul Dornan and Jere Behrman
21-002: On the Aggregation of Probability Assessments: Regularized Mixtures of Predictive Densities for Eurozone In?ation and Real Interest Rates Downloads
Francis X. Diebold, Minchul Shin and Boyuan Zhang
21-001: Same environment, stratified impacts? Air pollution, extreme temperatures, and birth weight in Southeast China Downloads
Xiaoying Liu, Jere Behrman, Emily Hannum, Fan Wang and Qingguo Zhao
20-041: A Macroeconomic Model of Healthcare Saturation, Inequality & the Output-Pandemia Tradeo Downloads
Enrique Mendoza, Eugenio Rojas, Linda L. Tesar and Jing Zhang
20-040: Fighting COVID-19:Performance of Countries in the First Half of 2020 Downloads
Roberto S. Mariano and Suleyman Ozmucur
20-039: Real-Time Forecasting with a (Standard) Mixed-Frequency VAR During a Pandemic Downloads
Frank Schorfheide and Dongho Song Dongho Song
20-038: Robust Forecasting Downloads
Timothy Christensen, Hyungsik Roger Moon and Frank Schorfheide
20-037: Piecewise-Linear Approximations and Filtering for DSGE Models with Occasionally Binding Constraints Downloads
S. Boragan Aruoba, Pablo Cuba-Borda, Kenji Higa-Flores, Frank Schorfheide and Sergio Villalvazo
20-036: Consumer Vulnerability and Behavioral Biases Downloads
Hanming Fang and Zenan Wu
20-035: Pandemics, Global Supply Chains, and Local Labor Demand: Evidence from 100 Million Posted Jobs in China Downloads
Hanming Fang, Chunmian Ge, Hanwei Huang and Hongbin Li
20-034: Lawrence R. Klein’s Principles in Modeling and Contributions in Nowcasting, Real-Time Forecasting, and Machine Learning Downloads
Roberto S. Mariano and Suleyman Ozmucur
20-033: Corona Politics:The cost of mismanaging pandemics Downloads
Helios Herrera, Maximilian Konradt, Guillermo Ordonez and Christoph Trebesch
20-032: The Long-Term Distributional and Welfare E?ects of Covid-19 School Closures Downloads
Nicola Fuchs-Schundeln, Dirk Krueger, Alexander Ludwig and Irina Popova
20-031: Labor Share and Productivity Dynamics Downloads
Sekyu Choi and José-Víctor Ríos-Rull
20-030: A Quantitative Theory of the Credit Score Downloads
Satyajit Satyajit, P. Dean Corbae, Kyle Dempsey and José-Víctor Ríos-Rull
20-029: Predictive Performance of Mixed-Frequency Nowcasting and Forecasting Models (with Application to Philippine Inflation and GDP Growth)Abstract: We study how the separation of time and risk preferences relates to a behavioral property that generalizes impatience to stochastic environments: Stochastic Impatience. We show that, within a broad class of models, Stochastic Impatience holds if and only if risk aversion is not too high relative to the inverse of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution. In par-ticular, in the models of Epstein and Zin (1989) and Hansen and Sargent (1995), Stochastic Impatience is violated for all commonly used parameters Downloads
Roberto S. Mariano and Suleyman Ozmucur
20-027: A Fisherian Approach to Financial Crises:Lessons from the Sudden Stops Literature Downloads
Javier Bianchi and Enrique Mendoza
20-026: Stochastic Impatience and the Separation of Time and Risk Preferences Downloads
David Dillenberger, Daniel Gottlieb and Pietro Ortoleva
20-025: On the Welfare Cost of Consumption Fluctuations in the Presence of Memorable Goods Downloads
Rong Hai, Dirk Krueger and Andrew Postlewaite
20-024: Genetic Risks, Adolescent Health and Schooling Attainment Downloads
Vikesh Amin, Jere Behrman, Jason Fletcher, Carlos A. Flores, Alfonso Flores-Lagunes and Hans-Peter Kohler
20-023: Real-Time Real Economic Activity:Exiting the Great Recession and Entering the Pandemic Recession Downloads
Francis Diebold
20-022: Competition and Quality: Evidence from High-Speed Railways and Airlines Downloads
Hanming Fang, Long Wang and Yang Yang
20-021: Subjective Information Choice Processes Downloads
David Dillenberger, R. Vijay Krishna and Philipp Sadowski
20-020: Additive-Belief-Based Preferences Downloads
David Dillenberger and Collin Raymond
20-019: Macro-Finance Decoupling: Robust Evaluations of Macro Asset Pricing Models Downloads
Xu Cheng, Winston Wei Dou and Zhipeng Liao
20-016: Activity and the incidence of emergencies: Evidence from daily data at the onset of a pandemic Downloads
Jorge Alé-Chilet, Juan Pablo Atal and Patricio Dominguez
20-015: Macroeconomic Dynamics and Reallocation in an Epidemic Downloads
Dirk Krueger, Harald Uhlig and Taojun Xie
20-014: Health versus Wealth: On the Distributional Effects of Controlling a Pandemic Downloads
Andrew Glover, Jonathan Heathcote, Dirk Krueger and José-Víctor Ríos-Rull
20-013: Should Germany Have Built a New Wall?Macroeconomic Lessons from the 2015-18 Refugee Wave Downloads
Christopher Busch, Dirk Krueger, Alexander Ludwig, Irina Popova and Zainab Iftikhar
20-012: Optimal Combination of Arctic Sea Ice Extent Measures: A Dynamic Factor Modeling Approach Downloads
Francis Diebold, Maximilian Gobel, Philippe Goulet Coulombe, Glenn Rudebusch and Boyuan Zhang
20-011: Human Mobility Restrictions and the Spread of the Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China Downloads
Hanming Fang, Long Wang and Yang Yang
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