PIER Working Paper Archive

From Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania
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21-028: “Golden Ages”: A Tale of the Labor Markets in China and the United States

Hanming Fang and Xincheng Qiu

21-027: An Economy of Neural Networks:Learning from Heterogeneous Experiences

Artem Kuriksha

21-025: Prospering through Prospera: CCT Impacts on Educational Attainment and Achievement in Mexico

Jere Behrman, Susan Parker, Petra Todd and Weilong Zhang

21-024: Heterogenous Trajectories in Physical, Mental and Cognitive Health among Older Americans: Roles of Genetics and Earlier SES

Cung Truong Hoang, Vikesh Amin, Jere Behrman, Hans-Peter Kohler and Illiana V. Kohler

21-023: The A?ordable Care Act After a Decade:Its Impact on the Labor Market and the Macro Economy

Hanming Fang and Dirk Krueger

21-022: Red Scare? A Study of Ethnic Prejudice in the Prosecutions under the Economic Espionage Act

Hanming Fang and Ming Li

21-021: Aggregative Efficiency of Bayesian Learning in Networks

Krishna Dasaratha and Kevin He

21-020: Evolutionarily Stable (Mis)specifications:Theory and Applications

Kevin He and Jonathan Libgober

21-019: A Multi-Agent Model of Misspeci?ed Learning with Overcon?dence

Cuimin Ba and Alice Gindin

21-018: Robust Model Misspeci?cation and Paradigm Shifts

Cuimin Ba

21-017: Physician-Induced Demand: Evidence from China’s Drug Price Zero-Markup Policy

Hanming Fang, Xiaoyan Lei, Julie Shi and Lisa Xuejie Yi

21-016: The Asian Games, Air Pollution and Birth Outcomes in South China: an Instrumental Variable Approach

Xiaoying Liu, Huazhang Miao, Jere Behrman, Emily Hannum, Zhijiang Liang and Qingguo Zhao

21-015: Fighting COVID-19: Patterns in International Data, Expanded

Roberto Mariano and Suleyman Ozmucur

21-014: Delay the Pension Age or Adjust the Pension Bene?t? Implications for Labor Supply and Individual Welfare in China

Yuanyuan Deng, Hanming Fang, Katja Hanewald and Shang Wu

21-013: Price Levels, Size, Distribution and Growth of the World Economy: Insights from recent International Comparisons of Prices and Real Product

Alan Heston and D.S. Prasada Rao

21-012: The Economics of the Public Option:Evidence from Local Pharmaceutical Markets

Juan Pablo Atal, Jose Ignacio Cuestaann, Felipe González and Cristóbal Otero

21-011: Information Spillovers in Sovereign Debt Markets

Harold Cole, Daniel Neuhann and Guillermo Ordonez

21-010: Adolescent Cognitive Gender Gaps Reflect Differential Dynamic Associations with Undernutrition and Poverty in Preschool and Preadolescent Ages

Le Thuc Duc and Jere Behrman

21-009: Cryptocurrencies and All That:Two Ideas from Monetary Economics

Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde

21-008: Has Machine Learning Rendered Simple Rules Obsolete?

Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde

21-007: Gender Gaps in Cognitive and Noncognitive Skills: Roles of SES and Gender Attitudes

Justine Herve, Subha Mani, Jere Behrman, Arindam Nandi, Anjana Sankhil Lamkang and Ramanan Laxminarayan

21-006: Allocation Mechanisms Without Reduction

David Dillenberger and Uzi Segal

21-005: Learning with Heterogeneous Misspecfied Models: Characterization and Robustness

Aislinn Bohren and Daniel N. Hauser

21-004: Maternal Undernutrition in Adolescence and Child Human Capital Formation over the Life-Course: Evidence from an International Cohort Study

Andreas Georgiadis, Liza Benny, Paul Dornan and Jere Behrman

21-002: On the Aggregation of Probability Assessments: Regularized Mixtures of Predictive Densities for Eurozone In?ation and Real Interest Rates

Francis Diebold, Minchul Shin and Boyuan Zhang

21-001: Same environment, stratified impacts? Air pollution, extreme temperatures, and birth weight in Southeast China

Xiaoying Liu, Jere Behrman, Emily Hannum, Fan Wang and Qingguo Zhao

20-041: A Macroeconomic Model of Healthcare Saturation, Inequality & the Output-Pandemia Tradeo

Enrique Mendoza, Eugenio Rojas, Linda L. Tesar and Jing Zhang

20-040: Fighting COVID-19:Performance of Countries in the First Half of 2020

Roberto Mariano and Suleyman Ozmucur

20-039: Real-Time Forecasting with a (Standard) Mixed-Frequency VAR During a Pandemic

Frank Schorfheide and Dongho Song

20-038: Robust Forecasting

Timothy Christensen, Hyungsik Roger Moon and Frank Schorfheide

20-037: Piecewise-Linear Approximations and Filtering for DSGE Models with Occasionally Binding Constraints

S. Boragan Aruoba, Pablo Cuba-Borda, Kenji Higa-Flores, Frank Schorfheide and Sergio Villalvazo

20-036: Consumer Vulnerability and Behavioral Biases

Hanming Fang and Zenan Wu

20-035: Pandemics, Global Supply Chains, and Local Labor Demand: Evidence from 100 Million Posted Jobs in China

Hanming Fang, Chunmian Ge, Hanwei Huang and Hongbin Li

20-034: Lawrence R. Klein’s Principles in Modeling and Contributions in Nowcasting, Real-Time Forecasting, and Machine Learning

Roberto Mariano and Suleyman Ozmucur

20-033: Corona Politics:The cost of mismanaging pandemics

Helios Herrera, Maximilian Konradt, Guillermo Ordonez and Christoph Trebesch

20-032: The Long-Term Distributional and Welfare E?ects of Covid-19 School Closures

Nicola Fuchs-Schundeln, Dirk Krueger, Alexander Ludwig and Irina Popova

20-031: Labor Share and Productivity Dynamics

Sekyu Choi and José-Víctor Ríos-Rull

20-030: A Quantitative Theory of the Credit Score

Satyajit Satyajit, P. Dean Corbae, Kyle Dempsey and José-Víctor Ríos-Rull

20-029: Predictive Performance of Mixed-Frequency Nowcasting and Forecasting Models (with Application to Philippine Inflation and GDP Growth)Abstract: We study how the separation of time and risk preferences relates to a behavioral property that generalizes impatience to stochastic environments: Stochastic Impatience. We show that, within a broad class of models, Stochastic Impatience holds if and only if risk aversion is not too high relative to the inverse of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution. In par-ticular, in the models of Epstein and Zin (1989) and Hansen and Sargent (1995), Stochastic Impatience is violated for all commonly used parameters

Roberto Mariano and Suleyman Ozmucur

20-027: A Fisherian Approach to Financial Crises:Lessons from the Sudden Stops Literature

Javier Bianchi and Enrique Mendoza

20-026: Stochastic Impatience and the Separation of Time and Risk Preferences

David Dillenberger, Daniel Gottlieb and Pietro Ortoleva

20-025: On the Welfare Cost of Consumption Fluctuations in the Presence of Memorable Goods

Rong Hai, Dirk Krueger and Andrew Postlewaite

20-024: Genetic Risks, Adolescent Health and Schooling Attainment

Vikesh Amin, Jere Behrman, Jason Fletcher, Carlos A. Flores, Alfonso Flores-Lagunes and Hans-Peter Kohler

20-023: Real-Time Real Economic Activity:Exiting the Great Recession and Entering the Pandemic Recession

Francis Diebold

20-022: Competition and Quality: Evidence from High-Speed Railways and Airlines

Hanming Fang, Long Wang and Yang Yang

20-021: Subjective Information Choice Processes

David Dillenberger, R. Vijay Krishna and Philipp Sadowski

20-020: Additive-Belief-Based Preferences

David Dillenberger and Collin Raymond

20-019: Macro-Finance Decoupling: Robust Evaluations of Macro Asset Pricing Models

Xu Cheng, Winston Dou and Zhipeng Liao

20-016: Activity and the incidence of emergencies: Evidence from daily data at the onset of a pandemic

Jorge Alé-Chilet, Juan Pablo Atal and Patricio Domínguez

20-015: Macroeconomic Dynamics and Reallocation in an Epidemic

Dirk Krueger, Harald Uhlig and Taojun Xie