The Downward Spiral

Jeremy Greenwood, Nezih Guner and Karen Kopecky

PIER Working Paper Archive from Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania

Abstract: There have been more than 500,000 opioid overdose deaths since 2000. To analyze the opioid epidemic, a model is constructed where individuals choose whether to use opioids recreationally, knowing the probabilities of addiction and dying. These odds are functions of recreational opioid usage. Markov chains are estimated from the US data for the college and non-college educated that summarize the transitions into and out of opioid addiction as well as to a deadly overdose. The structural model is constructed to match the estimated Markov chains. The epidemic’s drivers and the impact of medical interventions are examined.

Keywords: addiction; college/non-college educated; deaths; fentanyl; Markov chain; medical interventions; opioids; OxyContin; pain; prices; state-contingent preferences; structural model; subjective and objective beliefs (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D11 D12 E13 I12 I14 I31 J11 J17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 65 pages
Date: 2022-02-10
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Related works:
Working Paper: The Downward Spiral (2022)
Working Paper: The Downward Spiral (2022)
Working Paper: The Downward Spiral (2022)
Working Paper: The Downward Spiral (2022)
Working Paper: The Downward Spiral (2022)
Working Paper: The Downward Spiral (2022)
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