PIER Working Paper Archive

From Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania
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14-036: High Marginal Tax Rates on the Top 1%? Lessons from a Life Cycle Model with Idiosyncratic Income Risk

Fabian Kindermann and Dirk Krueger

14-035: Macroeconomic Dynamics Near the ZLB: A Tale of Two Countries

S. Boragan Aruoba, Pablo Cuba-Borda and Frank Schorfheide

14-034: Dynamic Prediction Pools: An Investigation of Financial Frictions and Forecasting Performance

Marco Del Negro, Raiden Hasegawa and Frank Schorfheide

14-033: Stochastic Games in Continuous Time: Persistent Actions in Long-Run Relationships, Second Version

Aislinn Bohren

14-032: Designing Experiments to Measure Spillover Effects

Sarah Baird, Aislinn Bohren, Craig McIntosh and Berk Özler

14-031: Mass attrition: An analysis of drop out from a Principles of Microeconomics MOOC

Rebecca Stein and Gloria Allione

14-030: One-Sided Matching with Limited Complementarities

Thanh Nguyen, Ahmad Peivandi and Rakesh Vohra

14-029: Network Formation and Systemic Risk

Selman Erol and Rakesh Vohra

14-028: Near Feasible Stable Matchings with Complementarities

Thanh Nguyen and Rakesh Vohra

14-027: The Network Effects of Air-Travel Demand

Yanhao Wei

14-026: A Model of Modeling

Itzhak Gilboa, Andrew Postlewaite, Larry Samuelson and David Schmeidler

14-025: How Central Banks End Crises

Gary Gorton and Guillermo Ordoñez

14-024: Political Booms, Financial Crises

Helios Herrera, Guillermo Ordoñez and Christoph Trebesch

14-023: Analyzing the Effects of Insuring Health Risks: On the Trade-off between Short Run Insurance Benefits vs. Long Run Incentive Costs

Harold Cole, Soojin Kim and Dirk Krueger

14-022: Banks as Secret Keepers

Tri Vi Dang, Gary Gorton, Bengt Holmstrom and Guillermo Ordonez

14-021: Cooperation in Large Societies, Second Version

Francesc Dilme

14-020: Pension design with a large informal labor market: Evidence from Chile

Clément Joubert

14-019: Dynamic Quality Signaling with Hidden Actions

Francesc Dilmé

14-018: Uniform Inference in Nonlinear Models with Mixed Identification Strength

Xu Cheng

14-017: Bond Market Exposures to Macroeconomic and Monetary Policy Risks

Dongho Song

14-016: Product Upgrades and Posted Prices

Mustafa Dogan

14-015: How Does Tax Progressivity and Household Heterogeneity Affect Laffer Curves?

Hans Holter, Dirk Krueger and Serhiy Stepanchuk

14-014: Dynamic Education Signaling with Dropout Risk, Third Version

Francesc Dilme and Fei Li

14-013: Unemployment Benefit Extensions Caused Jobless Recoveries!?

Kurt Mitman and Stanislav Rabinovich

14-012: On the Welfare Cost of Consumption Fluctuations in the Presence of Memorable Goods, Second Version

Rong Hai, Andrew Postlewaite and Dirk Krueger

14-010: Wealth Gradients in Early Childhood Cognitive Development in Five Latin American Countries

Norbert Schady, Jere Behrman, M. Caridad Araujo, Rodrigo Azuero, Raquel Bernal, David Bravo, Florencia López-Bóo, Karen Macours, Daniela Marshall, Christina Paxson and Renos Vakis

14-009: Large and Small Sellers: A Theory of Equilibrium Price Dispersion with Sequential Search

Guido Menzio and Nicholas Trachter

14-008: Crises and Productivity in Good Booms and in Bad Booms

Gary Gorton and Guillermo Ordonez

14-007: Informational Herding with Model Misspecification

Aislinn Bohren

14-006: Designing Experiments to Measure Spillover Effects

Sarah Baird, Aislinn Bohren, Craig McIntosh and Berk Özler

14-005: Cautious Expected Utility and the Certainty Effect

Simone Cerreia-Vioglio, David Dillenberger and Pietro Ortoleva

14-004: Young, Restless and Creative: Openness to Disruption and Creative Innovations

Daron Acemoglu, Ufuk Akcigit and Murat Celik

14-003: Some Unpleasant Bargaining Arithmetic?

Hülya Eraslan and Antonio Merlo

14-002: The Morphology of Price Dispersion

Greg Kaplan and Guido Menzio

14-001: On the Continuous Equilibria of Affiliated-Value, All-Pay Auctions with Private Budget Constraints, Third Version

Maciej Kotowski and Fei Li

13-071: The Determinants of Rising Inequality in Health Insurance and Wages, Second Version

Rong Hai

13-070: Measuring the Dynamics of Global Business Cycle Connectedness

Francis Diebold and Kamil Yilmaz

13-069: Buy, Keep or Sell: Economic Growth and the Market for Ideas

Ufuk Akcigit, Murat Celik and Jeremy Greenwood

13-068: Optimism and Pessimism with Expected Utility, Fourth Version

David Dillenberger, Andrew Postlewaite and Kareen Rozen

13-067: A Theory of Subjective Learning, Third Version

David Dillenberger, Juan Lleras, Philipp Sadowski and Norio Takeoka

13-066: Skewed Noise

David Dillenberger and Uzi Segal

13-065: Patent Value and Citations: Creative Destruction or Strategic Disruption?

David Abrams, Ufuk Akcigit and Jillian Popadak

13-064: Does realized volatility help bond yield density prediction?

Minchul Shin and Molin Zhong

13-063: Dynamic Quality Signaling with Hidden Actions, Second Version

Francesc Dilmé

13-062: Select the Valid and Relevant Moments: An Information-Based LASSO for GMM with Many Moments, Second Version

Xu Cheng and Zhipeng Liao

13-061: Forecasting with Factor-Augmented Regression: A Frequentist Model Averaging Approach, Second Version

Xu Cheng and Bruce Hansen

13-060: Premuneration Values and Investments in Matching Markets

George Mailath, Andrew Postlewaite and Larry Samuelson

13-059: To Hold Out or Not to Hold Out

Frank Schorfheide and Kenneth Wolpin

13-058: Identifying Structural Models of Committee Decisions with Heterogeneous Tastes and Ideological Bias

Yonghong An and Xun Tang

13-057: Regulation and Capacity Competition in Health Care: Evidence from Dialysis Markets

Mian Dai and Xun Tang