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PIER Working Paper Archive

From Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania
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21-010: Adolescent Cognitive Gender Gaps Reflect Differential Dynamic Associations with Undernutrition and Poverty in Preschool and Preadolescent Ages Downloads
Le Thuc Duc and Jere Behrman
21-009: Cryptocurrencies and All That:Two Ideas from Monetary Economics Downloads
Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde
21-008: Has Machine Learning Rendered Simple Rules Obsolete? Downloads
Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde
21-007: Gender Gaps in Cognitive and Noncognitive Skills: Roles of SES and Gender Attitudes Downloads
Justine Herve, Subha Mani, Jere Behrman, Arindam Nandi, Anjana Sankhil Lamkang and Ramanan Laxminarayan
21-006: Allocation Mechanisms Without Reduction Downloads
David Dillenberger and Uzi Segal
21-005: Learning with Heterogeneous Misspecfied Models: Characterization and Robustness Downloads
Aislinn Bohren and Daniel N. Hauser
21-004: Maternal Undernutrition in Adolescence and Child Human Capital Formation over the Life-Course: Evidence from an International Cohort Study Downloads
Andreas Georgiadis, Liza Benny, Paul Dornan and Jere Behrman
21-002: On the Aggregation of Probability Assessments: Regularized Mixtures of Predictive Densities for Eurozone In?ation and Real Interest Rates Downloads
Francis Diebold, Minchul Shin and Boyuan Zhang
21-001: Same environment, stratified impacts? Air pollution, extreme temperatures, and birth weight in Southeast China Downloads
Xiaoying Liu, Jere Behrman, Emily Hannum, Fan Wang and Qingguo Zhao
20-041: A Macroeconomic Model of Healthcare Saturation, Inequality & the Output-Pandemia Tradeo Downloads
Enrique Mendoza, Eugenio Rojas, Linda L. Tesar and Jing Zhang
20-040: Fighting COVID-19:Performance of Countries in the First Half of 2020 Downloads
Roberto S. Mariano and Suleyman Ozmucur
20-039: Real-Time Forecasting with a (Standard) Mixed-Frequency VAR During a Pandemic Downloads
Frank Schorfheide and Dongho Song
20-038: Robust Forecasting Downloads
Timothy Christensen, Hyungsik Roger Moon and Frank Schorfheide
20-037: Piecewise-Linear Approximations and Filtering for DSGE Models with Occasionally Binding Constraints Downloads
S. Boragan Aruoba, Pablo Cuba-Borda, Kenji Higa-Flores, Frank Schorfheide and Sergio Villalvazo
20-036: Consumer Vulnerability and Behavioral Biases Downloads
Hanming Fang and Zenan Wu
20-035: Pandemics, Global Supply Chains, and Local Labor Demand: Evidence from 100 Million Posted Jobs in China Downloads
Hanming Fang, Chunmian Ge, Hanwei Huang and Hongbin Li
20-034: Lawrence R. Klein’s Principles in Modeling and Contributions in Nowcasting, Real-Time Forecasting, and Machine Learning Downloads
Roberto S. Mariano and Suleyman Ozmucur
20-033: Corona Politics:The cost of mismanaging pandemics Downloads
Helios Herrera, Maximilian Konradt, Guillermo Ordonez and Christoph Trebesch
20-032: The Long-Term Distributional and Welfare E?ects of Covid-19 School Closures Downloads
Nicola Fuchs-Schundeln, Dirk Krueger, Alexander Ludwig and Irina Popova
20-031: Labor Share and Productivity Dynamics Downloads
Sekyu Choi and José-Víctor Ríos-Rull
20-030: A Quantitative Theory of the Credit Score Downloads
Satyajit Satyajit, P. Dean Corbae, Kyle Dempsey and José-Víctor Ríos-Rull
20-029: Predictive Performance of Mixed-Frequency Nowcasting and Forecasting Models (with Application to Philippine Inflation and GDP Growth)Abstract: We study how the separation of time and risk preferences relates to a behavioral property that generalizes impatience to stochastic environments: Stochastic Impatience. We show that, within a broad class of models, Stochastic Impatience holds if and only if risk aversion is not too high relative to the inverse of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution. In par-ticular, in the models of Epstein and Zin (1989) and Hansen and Sargent (1995), Stochastic Impatience is violated for all commonly used parameters Downloads
Roberto S. Mariano and Suleyman Ozmucur
20-027: A Fisherian Approach to Financial Crises:Lessons from the Sudden Stops Literature Downloads
Javier Bianchi and Enrique Mendoza
20-026: Stochastic Impatience and the Separation of Time and Risk Preferences Downloads
David Dillenberger, Daniel Gottlieb and Pietro Ortoleva
20-025: On the Welfare Cost of Consumption Fluctuations in the Presence of Memorable Goods Downloads
Rong Hai, Dirk Krueger and Andrew Postlewaite
20-024: Genetic Risks, Adolescent Health and Schooling Attainment Downloads
Vikesh Amin, Jere Behrman, Jason Fletcher, Carlos A. Flores, Alfonso Flores-Lagunes and Hans-Peter Kohler
20-023: Real-Time Real Economic Activity:Exiting the Great Recession and Entering the Pandemic Recession Downloads
Francis Diebold
20-022: Competition and Quality: Evidence from High-Speed Railways and Airlines Downloads
Hanming Fang, Long Wang and Yang Yang
20-021: Subjective Information Choice Processes Downloads
David Dillenberger, R. Vijay Krishna and Philipp Sadowski
20-020: Additive-Belief-Based Preferences Downloads
David Dillenberger and Collin Raymond
20-019: Macro-Finance Decoupling: Robust Evaluations of Macro Asset Pricing Models Downloads
Xu Cheng, Winston Dou and Zhipeng Liao
20-016: Activity and the incidence of emergencies: Evidence from daily data at the onset of a pandemic Downloads
Jorge Alé-Chilet, Juan Pablo Atal and Patricio Dominguez
20-015: Macroeconomic Dynamics and Reallocation in an Epidemic Downloads
Dirk Krueger, Harald Uhlig and Taojun Xie
20-014: Health versus Wealth: On the Distributional Effects of Controlling a Pandemic Downloads
Andrew Glover, Jonathan Heathcote, Dirk Krueger and José-Víctor Ríos-Rull
20-013: Should Germany Have Built a New Wall?Macroeconomic Lessons from the 2015-18 Refugee Wave Downloads
Christopher Busch, Dirk Krueger, Alexander Ludwig, Irina Popova and Zainab Iftikhar
20-012: Optimal Combination of Arctic Sea Ice Extent Measures: A Dynamic Factor Modeling Approach Downloads
Francis Diebold, Maximilian Gobel, Philippe Goulet Coulombe, Glenn Rudebusch and Boyuan Zhang
20-011: Human Mobility Restrictions and the Spread of the Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China Downloads
Hanming Fang, Long Wang and Yang Yang
20-010: Simple Rules for a Complex World with Arti?cial Intelligence Downloads
Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde
20-009: Long-Term Health Insurance: Theory Meets Evidence Downloads
Juan Pablo Atal, Hanming Fang, Martin Karlsson and Nicolas Ziebarth
20-008: The Collateral Channel of Monetary Policy: Evidence from China Downloads
Hanming Fang, Yongqin Wang and Xian Wu
20-007: Mental Health, Schooling Attainment and Polygenic Scores: Are There Significant Genetic-Environmental Associations? Downloads
Vikesh Amin, Jere Behrman, Jason Fletcher, Carlos A. Flores, Alfonso Flores-Lagunes and Hans-Peter Kohler
20-006: Does sorting matter for learning inequality?Evidence from East Africa Downloads
Paul Anand, Jere Behrman, Hai-Anh Dang and Sam Jones
20-005: The Causal Effects of Parents’ Schooling on Children’s Schooling in Urban China Downloads
Jere Behrman, Yuan Hu and Junsen Zhang
20-004: After-School Tutoring, Household Substitution and Student Achievement: Experimental Evidence from Rural China Downloads
Jere Behrman, C. Simon Fan, Xiangdong Wei, Hongliang Zhang and Junsen Zhang
20-003: Self-Ful?lling Debt Crises, Revisited Downloads
Mark Aguiar, Satyajit Chatterjee, Harold Cole and Zachary Stangebye
20-001: Probability Assessments of an Ice-Free Arctic: Comparing Statistical and Climate Model Projections Downloads
Francis Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch
19-020: Lock-in in Dynamic Health Insurance Contracts: Evidence from Chile Downloads
Juan Pablo Atal
19-019: Household Labor Search, Spousal Insurance, and Health Care Reform Downloads
Hanming Fang and Andrew Shephard
19-018: Learning under Diverse World Views: Model-Based Inference Downloads
George Mailath and Larry Samuelson
19-017: Quality Regulation and Competition: Evidence from Pharmaceutical Markets Downloads
Juan Pablo Atal, Jose´ Ignacio Cuesta and Morten Sæthre
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