Real-Time Real Economic Activity:Entering and Exiting the Pandemic Recession of 2020
Francis Diebold ()
PIER Working Paper Archive from Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania
Entering and exiting the Pandemic Recession, I study the high-frequency real-activity signals provided by a leading nowcast, the ADS Index of Business Conditions produced and released in real time by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. I track the evolution of real-time vintage beliefs and compare them to a later-vintage chronology. Real-time ADS plunges and then swings as its underlying economic indicators swing, but the ADS paths quickly converge to indicate a return to brisk positive growth by mid-May. I show, moreover, that the daily real activity path was highly correlated with the daily COVID-19 cases. Finally, I provide a comparative assessment of the real-time ADS signals provided when exiting the Great Recession.
Keywords: ruboba-Dieold-Scotti index; ADS index; nowcasting; business cycle; recession; expansion; coincident indicator; real economic activity; forecasting; Big Data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 E66 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 25 pages
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Working Paper: Real-Time Real Economic Activity: Entering and Exiting the Pandemic Recession of 2020 (2022)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pen:papers:22-001
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