Real-Time Real Economic Activity:Entering and Exiting the Pandemic Recession of 2020

Francis Diebold

PIER Working Paper Archive from Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania

Abstract: Entering and exiting the Pandemic Recession, I study the high-frequency real-activity signals provided by a leading nowcast, the ADS Index of Business Conditions produced and released in real time by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. I track the evolution of real-time vintage beliefs and compare them to a later-vintage chronology. Real-time ADS plunges and then swings as its underlying economic indicators swing, but the ADS paths quickly converge to indicate a return to brisk positive growth by mid-May. I show, moreover, that the daily real activity path was highly correlated with the daily COVID-19 cases. Finally, I provide a comparative assessment of the real-time ADS signals provided when exiting the Great Recession.

Keywords: ruboba-Dieold-Scotti index; ADS index; nowcasting; business cycle; recession; expansion; coincident indicator; real economic activity; forecasting; Big Data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 E66 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 25 pages
Date: 2022-01-02
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://economics.sas.upenn.edu/sites/default/files/filevault/22-001.pdf (application/pdf)
Our link check indicates that this URL is bad, the error code is: 404 Not Found

Related works:
Chapter: Real-Time Real Economic Activity: Entering and Exiting the Pandemic Recession of 2020 (2022)
Working Paper: Real-Time Real Economic Activity: Entering and Exiting the Pandemic Recession of 2020 (2022)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pen:papers:22-001

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in PIER Working Paper Archive from Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania 133 South 36th Street, Philadelphia, PA 19104. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Administrator ().