Real-Time Real Economic Activity: Entering and Exiting the Pandemic Recession of 2020

Francis Diebold

A chapter in Essays in Honour of Fabio Canova, 2022, vol. 44A, pp 5-24 from Emerald Group Publishing Limited

Abstract: Entering and exiting the Pandemic Recession, the author study the high-frequency real-activity signals provided by a leading nowcast, the ADS Index of Business Conditions produced and released in real time by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The author tracks the evolution of real-time vintage beliefs and compares them to a later-vintage chronology. Real-time ADS plunges and then swings as its underlying economic indicators swing, but the ADS paths quickly converge to indicate a return to brisk positive growth by mid-May. The author shows, moreover, that the daily real-activity path was highly correlated with the daily COVID-19 cases. Finally, the author provides a comparative assessment of the real-time ADS signals provided when exiting the Great Recession.

Keywords: Aruboba–Dieold–Scotti Index; ADS Index; nowcasting; business cycle; recession; expansion; coincident indicator; real economic activity; forecasting; Big Data; E32; E66 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Working Paper: Real-Time Real Economic Activity: Entering and Exiting the Pandemic Recession of 2020 (2022)
Working Paper: Real-Time Real Economic Activity:Entering and Exiting the Pandemic Recession of 2020 (2022)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eme:aecozz:s0731-90532022000044a002

DOI: 10.1108/S0731-90532022000044A002

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