Real-Time Real Economic Activity: Entering and Exiting the Pandemic Recession of 2020

Francis Diebold

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: Entering and exiting the Pandemic Recession, I study the high-frequency real-activity signals provided by a leading nowcast, the ADS Index of Business Conditions produced and released in real time by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. I track the evolution of real-time vintage beliefs and compare them to a later-vintage chronology. Real-time ADS plunges and then swings as its underlying economic indicators swing, but the ADS paths quickly converge to indicate a return to brisk positive growth by mid-May. I show, moreover, that the daily real activity path was highly correlated with the daily COVID-19 cases. Finally, I provide a comparative assessment of the real-time ADS signals provided when exiting the Great Recession.

Date: 2020-06, Revised 2022-01
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

Downloads: (external link)
http://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.15183 Latest version (application/pdf)

Related works:
Chapter: Real-Time Real Economic Activity: Entering and Exiting the Pandemic Recession of 2020 (2022)
Working Paper: Real-Time Real Economic Activity:Entering and Exiting the Pandemic Recession of 2020 (2022)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:arx:papers:2006.15183

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Papers from arXiv.org
Bibliographic data for series maintained by arXiv administrators ().