NBER Working Papers

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35286: Beliefs and Stock Market Fluctuations: New Evidence from the Past Seven Decades

David Thesmar and Emil Verner

35285: Does the Import Invasion Explain the Mysterious Disappearance of Productivity Growth in U.S. Manufacturing?

Robert Gordon and Kenneth Ryu

35284: Optimal Long-Term Care Provision and Insurance with Heterogeneous Preferences and Risks

Nicholas-James Clavet, Pierre-Carl Michaud and Julien Navaux

35283: AI for Structural Estimation

Victor Duarte and Julia Fonseca

35282: Insurer Risk and Public Risk-Sharing: Quantifying the Value of Reinsurance

Paul H.S. Kim and Anran Li

35281: College Affirmative Action and Students' Outcomes: A Matter of the Dose

Yi Chen, Chao Fu, Hongbin Li, Teng Li and Siyan Tang

35280: Medicare Home Health Fraud: How Much, Where, and Who?

Liran Einav, Amy Finkelstein, Yunan Ji, Neale Mahoney and Gideon Moore

35279: Non-User Externalities

Leonardo Bursztyn, Jan Fasnacht, Benjamin R. Handel, Rafael Jiménez-Durán, Aaron Leonard, Filip Milojević, Christopher Roth and Cass Sunstein

35278: An Ethical Pollution Tax

Garth Heutel

35277: Deadly Stigma

Manasvini Singh

35276: The AGI Race and Existential Risk

Ethan Bueno de Mesquita, Wioletta Dziuda and Mattias Polborn

35275: Writing Code vs. Shipping Code: Productivity Effects Across Generations of AI Coding Tools

Mert Demirer, Leon Musolff and Liyuan Yang

35274: Factor Bias and Heterogeneous Output Quality in Multiproduct Production

Yi Lee, Shengyu Li and Mark Roberts

35273: The Growth and Performance of Artificial Intelligence in Asset Management

Shuang Chen, Clemens Sialm and David X. Xu

35272: Geopolitical Fragmentation, Sovereign Debt, and Dollar Dominance

Felipe Benguria, Eugenio I. Rojas and Felipe Saffie

35271: Beyond Exposure: Predicting AI Adoption Based on Comparative Advantage

Ilse Lindenlaub, Ryungha Oh, Maria Alejandra Rodriguez and Laura Veldkamp

35270: Dust in the Wind: The Health Costs of Great Salt Lake Desiccation

Lena Harris, Eric Edwards and Danae Hernandez-Cortes

35269: Frontier Knowledge in College and Student Success

Barbara Biasi and Song Ma

35268: An Unfunded Mandate? Medicaid Continuous Coverage Requirements and State Fiscal Burdens During COVID-19

Jeffrey Clemens and Anwita Mahajan

35267: Persistent Effects of Early Academic Rank on Cognitive and Noncognitive Outcomes

Eunsik Chang, María Padilla-Romo and Cecilia Peluffo

35266: The Missing Value of Data

Ankit Bhutani, Guillermo Ordonez and Laura Veldkamp

35265: Off the Labor Supply Curve: The Zero Employer Size Wage Effect Within Large Firms

André Diegmann, Steffen Müller and Benjamin Schoefer

35264: Where There’s Smoke: Stochastic Caregiving Shocks and Mothers’ Labor Market Outcomes

Joshua Graff Zivin and Seunghoon Lee

35263: How Efficient was the Affordable Care Act at Reducing Uninsured Rates?

Anuj Gangopadhyaya and Robert Kaestner

35262: How Much and How Fast Do Investors Respond to Equity Premium Changes? Evidence from Wealth Taxation

Andreas Fagereng, Luigi Guiso and Marius A. K. Ring

35261: Startups in Africa

Emanuele Colonnelli, Marcio Cruz, Mariana Pereira-López, Tommaso Porzio and Chun Zhao

35260: The Risk-free Rate and the Risk-adjusted Growth Rate

Stavros Panageas

35259: A Bayesian Critic for Frequentist Procedures

Isaiah Andrews, Simon C. Essig Aberg and Jesse Shapiro

35258: Towards a Methodology for Measuring Rental Property Ownership in the United States

Stephanie Kestelman, Rebecca Diamond, John Humphries, Kate Pennington, Winnie van Dijk and John L. Voorheis

35257: The Federal Government's Discretionary Spending

Karen Dynan, Douglas Elmendorf and Theresa Gullo

35256: Housing Capital and Intergenerational Mobility in the United States

Ariel Binder, Max Risch and John L. Voorheis

35255: Deep-Tech Innovation: A Multi-Method Study toward a Conceptual Framework and Research Agenda

Johann Kortsch, Stefan Raff-Heinen, David Bendig, Martin Murmann, Colin Schulz and Fiona Murray

35254: Defining Innovatisation: The Case of NewSpace and the Changing Space Sector

Benoit Cornet, Marc-André Chavy-Macdonald and Dominique Foray

35253: The Sisyphean Pursuit of Evidence for Poverty Traps

Dean Karlan, Amol Singh Raswan and Christopher Udry

35252: Distribution Costs

Cian Ruane and Alessandra Peter

35251: The Word Is Not Enough: Testing the Effects of Information Treatments on Perceived Corruption in Ukraine

Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Ilona Sologoub and Yuriy Fedyk

35250: Nonresponse Imputations and Related Measurement Issues in the CPI for Shelter

Lara Loewenstein, Hugh G. Montag and Randal Verbrugge

35249: The Price of Protection: Tariff Incidence and Import Collapse under the Infamous Smoot-Hawley Tariff

Kris James Mitchener and Mathieu Pedemonte

35248: Electoral Incentives and Government Transparency: Evidence from Freedom of Information Requests

Raymond Fisman, Aron Malatinszky and Eyub Yegen

35247: Scaling Point-in-Time Language Models

Bryan T. Kelly, Semyon Malamud, Johannes Schwab and Teng Andrea Xu

35246: Complex Modern Portfolio Theory

Oliver Hellum, Theis I. Jensen, Bryan T. Kelly and Semyon Malamud

35245: How Much Has Shale Gas Saved U.S. Consumers?

Lucas Davis

35244: Will The University Endowment Tax Slow Scientific Progress? Evidence from Elite Economics PhD Programs

Joshua Angrist, Marc Diederichs and Glenn Ellison

35243: A Tale of Two Market Returns: The Broad Market Factor and The Idiosyncratic Financial Factor

Sung Je Byun, Johnathan Loudis and Lawrence Schmidt

35242: Comparative Advantage and Openness under Global Fragmentation: Lessons from the Past 65 Years

Joshua Aizenman, Hiro Ito and Jamel Saadaoui

35241: From People’s War to People’s Rule: Rebel Governance and the Foundations of Inclusive Democracy

Bhishma Bhusal, Michael Callen, Rohini Pande, Soledad A. Prillaman, Deepak Singhania and Apurva Subedi

35240: Preference for Explainable AI

Alex Chan

35239: The Heterogeneous Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Policy

Jorge Abad, Saki Bigio, Salomon Garcia-Villegas, Joël Marbet and Galo Nuño Barrau

35238: The Human Capital Production Function: New Estimates and Implications for Labor Supply and Taxes

Han Gao, Michael Keane, Kaja Kierulf and Alan Woodland

35237: Unlocking Mortgage Lock-In: Equilibrium Effects in a Spatial Housing Ladder Model

Julia Fonseca, Lu Liu and Pierre Mabille

35236: Firm-Worker Matches: Experience or Inspection Goods?

Victoria Gregory, Guido Menzio and Giovanni M. Topa

35235: Cheapflation Cycles

Kunal Sangani

35234: Attorney Value-Added and Racial Disparities in the Criminal Justice System

Maya Mikdash, Mark Hoekstra and Suhyeon Oh

35233: The Educational Impacts of School Phone Bans: Evidence from Brazil

Guilherme Lichand, Luca Moreno-Louzada, Thiago da Costa and Matthew Gentzkow

35232: Designing More Informative Tests: Separating Execution from Recognition

Andrew Caplin and Leo Zhu

35231: Has the United States Bent the Health Care Cost Curve?

David Cutler and Lev R. Klarnet

35230: The (Lack of) Efficacy of Social Belonging and Growth Mindset Interventions Among College Students

Abid N. Alam, Philip Oreopoulos and Uros Petronijevic

35229: The Limits of Targeted Hiring Subsidies: Evidence from the Work Opportunity Tax Credit

Manisha Jain, Corina Mommaerts and Jeffrey Weaver

35228: Industrial Concentration, Property Values, and Municipal Bond Spreads

Kenneth Ahern

35227: The Optimal Use of AI in Financial Regulation

Christopher Clayton and Antonio Coppola

35226: A Promise Worth Keeping? Impacts of Free Community College on Degrees and Earnings

Paige Schoonover, Jonathon Attridge, Celeste Carruthers and Jilleah G. Welch

35225: States as Financiers: International Lending in War and Peace

Sebastian Horn, Carmen Reinhart and Christoph Trebesch

35224: Credit Supply, Firms, and Earnings Inequality

Christian Moser, Farzad Saidi, Benjamin Wirth and Stefanie Wolter

35223: Management of Health Care Facilities and Patient Attendance during Major Disruptions: Evidence from Kenya

Kathryn Andrews, Fabiano Dal-Ri, Roberta Gatti, Renata Lemos, Mario Macis and Lydia Nakhone

35222: Explaining Movements in Government Debt

Tatiana Kirsanova, Eric Leeper, Campbell Leith and Ding Liu

35221: Proposed Mergers Where Efficiencies Are Needed Most Might Be the Least Likely to Deliver Them

Robert Metcalfe, Alexandre B. Sollaci and Chad Syverson

35220: Trust, Financial Literacy, and Financial Behaviors: Shaping Retirement Security

Maya Haran Rosen, Annamaria Lusardi and Olivia Mitchell

35219: Lands of Opportunity: Differences in the Geography of Wealth and Income Mobility in the United States

Ariel Binder, Max Risch and John L. Voorheis

35218: California Billionaires: Wealth, Taxes, and Wealth Tax Revenue Estimates

Jasper Boll, Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman

35217: The Limits of Political Representation: Evidence from India

Veda Narasimhan and Jeffrey Weaver

35216: Divergence in Climate Change Communication: LLM-Based Evidence from the IPCC and the Press

Sebastian Galiani, Franco Mettola La Giglia and Raul A. Sosa

35215: Valuing Disaster Prevention: Desert Locust Monitoring and Control

Joséphine Gantois, Anouch Missirian, Evelina Linnros, Anna Tompsett, Amir Jina, Gordon McCord and Eyal G. Frank

35214: The Psychology of Macroeconomic Expectations

Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes, Simon G. Schröder, Andrei Shleifer and Maarten van Rooij

35213: Sophisticated Borrowing Constraints and Macroeconomic Dynamics

Al-Mahdi Ebsim, Chen Lian, Yueran Ma, Pablo Ottonello and Diego J. Perez

35212: Old Space, New Space: A Commercial Revolution in Innovation?

Ruben Gaetani and Alexander Whalley

35211: Endogenous Task Bundling, Skills and Automation

Joshua Gans

35210: Medical Innovation and Racial Health Disparities: Evidence from a Breakthrough Treatment

D. Mark Anderson, Kerwin Kofi Charles and Daniel Rees

35209: State Dependence of Monetary Policy During Global Supply Chain Disruptions

Xiwen Bai, Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, Yiliang Li and Francesco Zanetti

35208: Estimating the Present Value of R&D Tax Benefits in the United States

Brandon Pecoraro, Nicholas Hoffman, Martin Lopez-Daneri, Elena C. Derby, Rachel Moore and Shannon E. Sledz

35207: More Paths or More Contrast? A Theory of Experimentation Breadth

Joshua Gans and Luca Gius

35206: The Cost of Intermediary Market Power for Distressed Borrowers

Winston Dou, Wei Wang and Wenyu Wang

35205: Tatonnement and Price Setting in General Equilibrium

Iván Werning and Guido Lorenzoni

35204: Flood Risk, Insurance, and Housing in the United States

Suvy Qin and John L. Voorheis

35203: The Geography of Lifecycle Human Capital Accumulation

Ben Sprung-Keyser and Sonya Porter

35202: Fiscal Policy and Transition Risk

Stefano Carattini, Garth Heutel, Givi Melkadze and Inès Mourelon

35201: Intertemporal Arbitrage and Optimal Operation of Pumped Hydro Energy Storage

Isabel Figuerola-Ferretti and Eduardo S. Schwartz

35200: Credibility and Precommitment in Socialist Constitutionalism

Sebastian Edwards

35199: How do Workers Learn? Theory and Evidence on the Roots of Lifecycle Human Capital Accumulation

Xiao Ma, Alejandro Nakab and Daniela Vidart

35198: The Effects of GLP-1 Use on Mental Health, Self-rated Health, Employment and Marriage

Robert Kaestner and Cuiping Schiman

35197: Global Policy Spillovers: How Environmental Policies Propagate through Product Attributes

Koichiro Ito, James Sallee, Caleb Halvorson-Fried and Andrew Smith

35196: Making Sense of Labor Market Indicators Amid Data Imperfections

Scott Brave, Erin E. Crust, Stefano Eusepi, Bart Hobijn and Aysegul Sahin

35195: AlphaPortfolio: Goal-Oriented Investment Management Through Deep Reinforcement Learning

Lin Cong, Ke Tang and Jingyuan Wang

35194: Data Centers and Local Economies in the Age of AI: A Shift–Share Approach

Fernando E. Alvarez, David Argente, Joyce Chow and Diana Van Patten

35193: Mortality Rates by Race and Ethnicity Among People with Disabilities

Madeline S. Helfer, Becky Staiger and Jessica Van Parys

35192: Algorithmic Credentialism

Peter Q. Blair and Rui Guo

35191: Organization Capital, Large Startups, and the Dearth of IPOs

Ruediger Fahlenbrach, Leandro Sanz and René M. Stulz

35190: The Long-Run Effects of the Affordable Care Act: Evidence from a Partially Pre-Committed Research Design Over the COVID-19 Recession and Recovery

Jeffrey Clemens, Anwita Mahajan and Joseph J. Sabia

35189: Crimes Against Campbell-Shiller

Itzhak Ben-David and Alex Chinco

35188: Deep Research on a Loop: Using AI Agents to Construct Economic Datasets

Santiago Afonso, Sebastian Galiani, Ramiro Gálvez and Raul A. Sosa

35187: Anti-Harassment Policy and the Startup Labor Market

Jun Chen, Song Ma and Feng Zhang