NBER Working Papers

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34285: Monotone Ecological Inference

Hadi Elzayn, Jacob Goldin, Cameron Guage, Daniel E. Ho and Claire Morton

34284: The Dynamics of Technology Transfer: Multinational Investment in China and Rising Global Competition

Jaedo Choi, George Cui, Younghun Shim and Yongseok Shin

34283: The Changing Nature of International Trade and its Implications for Development

Pinelopi Goldberg and Michele Ruta

34282: Riding to Opportunity: Geographic and Household Effects from the Orphan Trains

Scott Abrahams and Daniel Keniston

34281: Supply-Side Opioid Restrictions and the Retail Pharmacy Market

Anne Burton and Brandyn Churchill

34280: Drivers of Digital Payment Adoption: Lessons from Brazil, Costa Rica, and Mexico

David Argente, Paula Gonzalez Alvarez, Esteban Méndez and Diana Van Patten

34279: Firm Capacity Underutilization and the Measurement of Productivity

Margaret McMillan and Hundanol Kebede

34278: Clean Rides, Healthy Lives: The Impact of Electric Vehicle Adoption on Air Quality and Infant Health

Cavit Baran, Janet Currie, Bahadir Dursun and Erdal Tekin

34277: Interest Rate Caps and Bank Loan Supply: Locking out the Small Borrower in the Great Depression

Haelim Anderson and Matthew Jaremski

34276: Climate Risk Exposure and Firms’ Climate Strategies

Xia Li and Caroline Flammer

34275: Asset Elasticities and Currency Risk Transfer

Carol Bertaut, Ester Faia, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Camilo Marchesini, Simon Paetzold and Martin Schmitz

34274: Why Don’t Struggling Students Do Their Homework? Disentangling Motivation and Study Productivity as Drivers of Human Capital Formation

Christopher Cotton, Brent R. Hickman, John List, Joseph Price and Sutanuka Roy

34273: How Do Financial Conditions Affect Professional Conduct? Evidence from Opioid Prescriptions

Isil Erel, Shan Ge and Pengfei Ma

34272: Measuring Market Power in Network-Constrained Markets

Christoph Graf and Frank A. Wolak

34271: When Will Entrepreneurs Choose to Make Themselves Replaceable?

Joshua Gans

34270: Moving for Good: Educational Gains from Leaving Violence Behind

María Padilla-Romo and Cecilia Peluffo

34269: More Girls, Fewer Blues: Peer Gender Ratios and Adolescent Mental Health

Monica Deza and Maria Zhu

34268: The Downside of Fertility

Claudia Goldin

34267: Dynamic Competition for Sleepy Deposits

Mark L. Egan, Ali Hortaçsu, Nathan A. Kaplan, Adi Sunderam and Vincent Yao

34266: Where Collateral Sleeps

Gary Gorton, Chase Ross and Sharon Y. Ross

34265: Prescription for Disaster: The SSDI Rate, Pain, and Prescribing Practices

William Evans and Ethan M.J. Lieber

34264: Why Is Manufacturing Productivity Growth So Low?

Enghin Atalay, Ali Hortaçsu, Nicole Kimmel and Chad Syverson

34263: Inferring Fine-grained Migration Patterns across the United States

Gabriel Agostini, Rachel Young, Maria Fitzpatrick, Nikhil Garg and Emma J. Pierson

34262: From Kin to Creed: Missions and the Reconfiguration of Social and Moral Order in Colonial Congo

Augustin Bergeron

34261: Congestion Pricing, Carpooling, and Commuter Welfare

Michael Ostrovsky and Michael Schwarz

34260: Test-Optional College Admissions: ACT and SAT Scores, Applications, and Enrollment Changes

Christopher Avery, Lena Shi and Preston Magouirk

34259: Artificial Intelligence in Team Dynamics: Who Gets Replaced and Why?

Xienan Cheng, Mustafa Dogan and Pinar Yildirim

34258: Scale Economies, Input-Output Loops, and Trade

Dominick Bartelme, Yuyang Jiang, Konstantin Kucheryavyy and Andres Rodriguez-Clare

34257: Monetary-Fiscal Interactions

John Cochrane

34256: A Research Agenda for the Economics of Transformative AI

Erik Brynjolfsson, Anton Korinek and Ajay Agrawal

34255: How People Use ChatGPT

Aaron Chatterji, Thomas Cunningham, David Deming, Zoe Hitzig, Christopher Ong, Carl Yan Shan and Kevin Wadman

34254: Time for Mental Healthcare: Evidence from Paid Sick Leave Mandates

Matthew Eisenberg, Yimin Ge, Ezra Golberstein and Johanna Maclean

34253: Insuring Labor Income Shocks: The Role of the Dynasty

Andreas Fagereng, Luigi Guiso, Luigi Pistaferri and Marius A. K. Ring

34252: Business Owners and the Self-Employed: Thirty-Three Million (and Counting!)

Christopher Goetz, Henry Hyatt, Zachary Kroff, Kristin Sandusky and Martha Stinson

34251: Human Capital and Racial Inequality in the US Labor Market

Owen Thompson

34250: Deep Learning for Solving Economic Models

Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde

34249: More to Live for: Health Investment Responses to Expected Retirement Wealth in Chile

Grant Miller, Nieves Valdés and Marcos Vera-Hernandez

34248: Substituting Talent with Transactions: Acquisitions as Responses to Immigration Restrictions

Jens Friedmann, Britta Glennon and Exequiel Hernandez

34247: Utilitarian or Quantile-Welfare Evaluation of Health Policy?

Charles Manski and John Mullahy

34246: Segregation, Spillovers, and the Locus of Racial Change

Donald Davis, Matthew Easton and Stephan Thies

34245: Abortion, Economic Hardship, and Crime

Erkmen Aslim, Wei Fu, Caitlin Myers, Erdal Tekin and Bingjin Xue

34244: Exposure to Science and Scientific Careers: Evidence from Minimum Wage Increases and University Lab Employment

Ina Ganguli and Raviv Murciano-Goroff

34243: Do Markets Believe in Transformative AI?

Isaiah Andrews and Maryam Farboodi

34242: Inward and Outward Migration under Shifting Legal-Democratic Regimes

Assaf Razin

34241: The Theory of Financial Stability Meets Reality: A Unifying Framework for Bank Regulation and Accounting Discretion

Nina Boyarchenko, Kinda Hachem and Anya V. Kleymenova

34240: Automation-Induced Innovation Shift

Lin Cong, Yao Lu, Hanqing Shi and Wu Zhu

34239: Social Substitution? Time Use Responses to Increased Workplace Isolation

Benjamin Cowan and Todd R. Jones

34238: Measuring Neighborhood Change: The Issue of Ex Post Borders

Edward Glaeser, Joseph Gyourko and Braydon Neiszner

34237: Regulating Biological Resources: Lessons From Marine Fisheries in the United States

Eyal G. Frank and Kimberly Oremus

34236: Tariffs, Manufacturing Employment, and Supply Chains

Joseph Steinberg

34235: Is Managed Care Effective in Long-term Care Settings? Evidence from Medicare Institutional Special Needs Plans

Momotazur Rahman, Brian McGarry, Elizabeth M. White, David C. Grabowski and Cyrus M. Kosar

34234: The Foreign Currency Fisher Channel: Evidence from Households

Győző Gyöngyösi, Judit Rariga and Emil Verner

34233: Efficiency Costs of Incomplete Markets

David R. Baqaee and Ariel Burstein

34232: Should States Reduce Teacher Licensing Requirements? Evidence from the Rise of For-Profit Training Programs in Texas

Christa Deneault and Evan Riehl

34231: Happier at Work? The Impact of Working at an Employee-Owned Firm and Working from Home on Job Satisfaction

Richard Freeman and Huanan Xu

34230: Preferences, Beliefs, and Demand for the Flu Vaccine

Daniel W. Sacks and Justin R. Sydnor

34229: Latent Polarization

Klaus Desmet, Ignacio Ortuño-Ortín and Romain Wacziarg

34228: Five Facts About the First-Generation Excellence Gap

Uditi Karna, John List, Andrew Simon and Haruka Uchida

34227: Earnings Instability

Peter Ganong, Pascal J. Noel, Christina Patterson, Joseph Vavra and Alexander Weinberg

34226: Measuring FDI and Trade-related Interdependence Across Countries: The Case of the United States and China

Zhi Wang, Shang-Jin Wei, Xinding Yu and Kunfu Zhu

34225: The Industrial Revolution in the United States: 1790-1870

Joshua Rosenbloom

34224: Characterizing Optimality in Dynamic Settings: A Monotonicity-based Approach

Zhuokai Huang, Demian Pouzo and Andres Rodriguez-Clare

34223: Artificial Writing and Automated Detection

Brian Jabarian and Alex Imas

34222: Missing Markets for Innovation: Evidence from New Uses of Existing Drugs

Eric Budish, Maya M. Durvasula, Benjamin N. Roin and Heidi Williams

34221: College Loans and Human Capital Investment

Chao Fu, Hsuan-Chih Lin and Atsuko Tanaka

34220: Banks’ Images: Evidence from Advertising Videos

Xugan Chen, Allen Hu and Song Ma

34219: Laboratories of Autocracy: Landscape of Central–Local Dynamics in China’s Policy Universe

Kaicheng Luo, Shaoda Wang and David Yang

34218: Robust Bounds on Optimal Tax Progressivity

Anmol Bhandari, Jaroslav Borovička and Yuki Yao

34217: Global Working Hours

Amory Gethin and Emmanuel Saez

34216: When Decentralization Works: Leadership, Local Needs, and Student Achievement

C. Kirabo Jackson

34215: Job Mismatch and Early Career Success

Julie Cullen, Gordon Dahl and Richard De Thorpe

34214: Adaptation Through Experience or Description? Evidence from an Experiment on Efficient Coding

Cary Frydman and Lawrence Jin

34213: Public R&D Meets Economic Development: Embrapa and Brazil’s Agricultural Revolution

Ariel Akerman, Jacob Moscona, Heitor Pellegrina and Karthik Sastry

34212: International Students, Immigration Policies and Implications for Innovation

Ina Ganguli and Megan MacGarvie

34211: Managerial Incentives, Financial Innovation, and Risk-Management Policies

Son Ku Kim, Seung Joo Lee and Sheridan Titman

34210: Expectation Response Functions in Dynamic Linear Economies

Ryan Chahrour and Kyle Jurado

34209: Does Tax Avoidance Trickle Down? Evidence from a Field Experiment

Justin Holz, Ricardo Perez-Truglia and Alejandro Zentner

34208: A Chip Off the Old Block? Genetics and the Intergenerational Transmission of Socioeconomic Status

Sjoerd van Alten, Silvia Barcellos, Leandro Carvalho, Titus Galama and Marina Aguiar Palma

34207: The Algorithm Advantage: Ranked Application Systems Outperform Decentralized and Common Applications in Boston and Beyond

Christopher Avery, Geoffrey Kocks and Parag A. Pathak

34206: Tariffs, Trade Wars, and the Natural Rate of Interest

Neil Mehrotra and Michael Waugh

34205: Adapting for scale: Experimental Evidence on Technology-aided Instruction in India

Karthik Muralidharan and Abhijeet Singh

34204: Place-Based Variation in Health Care: Evidence from Mandatory Movers in the U.S. Military Health System

William P. Luan, Roxana Leal, John S. Zhou and Jonathan Skinner

34203: Firm Ownership and Pollution

Tsz Chun Kwok, Daniel Spiro and Arthur A. van Benthem

34202: AI Agents for Economic Research

Anton Korinek

34201: A Discrete Choice Analysis of Consumer Decisions: Nicotine Products in an Illicit Market

Asena Caner, Belgi Turan, Berna Tari Kasnakoğlu, Yenal Can Yiğit, Donald Kenkel and Alan Mathios

34200: Beyond the Taylor Rule

Emi Nakamura, Venance Riblier and Jon Steinsson

34199: In Money, We Survive: The Effects of Social Security Retirement Income on Longevity

Hamid Noghanibehambari and Jason Fletcher

34198: Malfunctioning Democracies: Understanding Accountability Failures in Developing Countries

Claudio Ferraz and Frederico Finan

34197: Understanding Patenting Disparities via Causal Human+Machine Learning

Lin Cong and Stephen Q. Yang

34196: Smart Power Limits: Designing Shortage Mechanisms for Extreme Events

Mar Reguant and Mayra Wagner

34195: The Impact of Geopolitical Risk on Consumer Expectations and Spending

Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Dimitris Georgarakos, Geoff Kenny and Olivier Coibion

34194: Superstar Firms through the Generations

Yueran Ma, Benjamin Pugsley, Haomin Qin and Kaspar Zimmermann

34193: Overlapping Generations Models, Multiplicity of Steady States and Momentary Equilibria, and Economic Fluctuations

Tomohiro Hirano and Joseph Stiglitz

34192: Tariffs as Fiscal Policy

Kimberly Clausing and Maurice Obstfeld

34191: Navigating Medicaid: Experimental Evidence on Administrative Burden and Coverage Loss

Rebecca Myerson, Allison Espeseth and Laura Dague

34190: Good Rents versus Bad Rents: R&D Misallocation and Growth

Philippe Aghion, Antonin Bergeaud, Timo Boppart, Peter J. Klenow and Huiyu Li

34189: The Future of Foreign Trade

Elhanan Helpman

34188: Minimum Wages and the Distribution of Firm Wage Premia

Marcelo Bergolo, Rodrigo Ceni, Mathias Fondo and Damián Vergara

34187: Endogenous Firm Ownership in General Equilibrium

Joshua Gans

34186: Union Bargaining Power and the Amenity-Wage Tradeoff

Lorenzo Lagos