NBER Working Papers

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33011: Fear and Dreams: Understanding the Non-Institutional sources of Leader Strategy

Maria Angélica Bautista, Juan Galán, James Robinson, Rafael F. Torres and Ragnar Torvik

33010: Social Interactions, Information, and Preferences for Schools: Experimental Evidence from Los Angeles

Christopher Campos

33009: Intergenerational Transmission of Occupation: Lessons from the United States Army

Kyle Greenberg, Matthew Gudgeon, Adam Isen, Corbin L. Miller and Richard Patterson

33008: The Unintended Consequences of Merit-based Teacher Selection: Evidence from Large-scale Reform in Colombia

Matias Busso, Sebastián Montaño, Juan Munoz-Morales and Nolan G. Pope

33007: Estimating the Regional Welfare Impact of Tariff Changes: Application to the United States

Robert Feenstra and Chang Hong

33006: Cross-Border Shopping: Evidence and Welfare Implications for Switzerland

Ariel Burstein, Sarah Lein and Jonathan Vogel

33005: Do Elite Universities Overpay Their Faculty?

César Garro-Marín, Shulamit Kahn and Kevin Lang

33004: Finance Without Exotic Risk

Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Rafael La Porta and Andrei Shleifer

33003: Currency Centrality in Equity Markets, Exchange Rates and Global Financial Cycles

Helene Rey, Vania Stavrakeva and Jenny Tang

33002: Child Penalties and Parental Role Models: Classroom Exposure Effects

Henrik Kleven, Giulia Olivero and Eleonora Patacchini

33001: Financial Advice and Investor Beliefs: Experimental Evidence on Active vs. Passive Strategies

Antoinette Schoar and Yang Sun

33000: Capital-Skill Complementarity in Firms and in the Aggregate Economy

Giuseppe Berlingieri, Filippo Boeri, Danial Lashkari and Jonathan Vogel

32999: Welfare in the Volunteer’s Dilemma

Marco Battaglini and Thomas Palfrey

32998: Interdealer Price Dispersion and Intermediary Capacity

Andrea Eisfeldt, Bernard Herskovic and Shuo Liu

32997: Hours Worked and Lifetime Earnings Inequality

Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin and Richard Rogerson

32996: Bridging the Gaps: The Impact of Interregional Transmission on Emissions and Reliability

Audun Botterud, Christopher Knittel, John Parsons, Juan Ramon Senga and Drew Story

32995: The Efficiency of Dynamic Electricity Prices

Andrew J. Hinchberger, Mark R. Jacobsen, Christopher Knittel, James Sallee and Arthur A. van Benthem

32994: Nonparametric Estimation of Demand with Switching Costs: the Case of Habitual Brand Loyalty

Xinyao Kong, Jean-Pierre H. Dubé and Øystein Daljord

32993: China: Autocracy 2.0

David Yang

32992: Equity and Efficiency in Technology Adoption: Evidence from Digital Health

Itzik Fadlon, Parag Agnihotri, Christopher Longhurst and Ming Tai-Seale

32991: Fiscal and Monetary Policy with Heterogeneous Agents

Adrien Auclert, Matthew Rognlie and Ludwig Straub

32990: Cultural Remittances and Modern Fertility

Mickael Melki, Hillel Rapoport, Enrico Spolaore and Romain Wacziarg

32989: Privacy Protection and Accuracy: What Do We Know? Do We Know Things?? Let's Find Out!

Evan Totty and Thor Watson

32988: Evaluating Policy Counterfactuals: A VAR-Plus Approach

Tomás E. Caravello, Alisdair McKay and Christian Wolf

32987: Theodore Roosevelt, the Election of 1912, and the Founding of the Federal Reserve

Matthew Jaremski and David Wheelock

32986: Do Investor Differences Impact Monetary Policy Spillovers to Emerging Markets?

Ester Faia, Karen Lewis and Haonan Zhou

32985: Are We Adapting to Climate Change?

Marshall Burke, Mustafa Zahid, Mariana C. M. Martins, Christopher W. Callahan, Richard Lee, Tumenkhusel Avirmed, Sam Heft-Neal, Mathew Kiang, Solomon M. Hsiang and David Lobell

32984: Investing in Vaccines to Mitigate Harm from COVID-19 and Future Pandemics

Rachel Glennerster, Catherine Che, Sarrin M. Chethik, Claire T. McMahon and Christopher Snyder

32983: On the Identifying Power of Generalized Monotonicity for Average Treatment Effects

Yuehao Bai, Shunzhuang Huang, Sarah Moon, Azeem Shaikh and Edward Vytlacil

32982: Mining Chinese Historical Sources At Scale: A Machine Learning-Approach to Qing State Capacity

Wolfgang Keller, Carol H. Shiue and Sen Yan

32981: The Economics of Recycling Heterogeneity

Don Fullerton and Thomas Kinnaman

32980: Economic Policy Challenges for the Age of AI

Anton Korinek

32979: Synthetic Data and Social Science Research: Accuracy Assessments and Practical Considerations from the SIPP Synthetic Beta

Jordan C. Stanley and Evan Totty

32978: "Despair" and Death in the United States

Christopher Ruhm

32977: Who should work how much?

Timo Boppart, Per Krusell and Jonna Olsson

32976: Exchange Rates, Natural Rates, and the Price of Risk

Rohan Kekre and Moritz Lenel

32975: The Selective Disclosure of Evidence: An Experiment

Agata Farina, Guillaume Fréchette, Alessandro Ispano, Alessandro Lizzeri and Jacopo Perego

32974: Entry Costs Rise with Growth

Peter J. Klenow and Huiyu Li

32973: Behavioral Attenuation

Benjamin Enke, Thomas Graeber, Ryan Oprea and Jeffrey Yang

32972: Perry Preschool at 50: What Lessons Should Be Drawn and Which Criticisms Ignored?

Alison W. Baulos, Jorge Luis Garcia and James Heckman

32971: Health Inequality and Economic Disparities by Race, Ethnicity, and Gender

Nicolò Russo, Rory McGee, Mariacristina De Nardi, Margherita Borella and Ross Abram

32970: Moving to Opportunity, Together

Seema Jayachandran, Lea Nassal, Matthew Notowidigdo, Marie Paul, Heather Sarsons and Elin Sundberg

32969: A Secure Query System to Improve Access to Individual Income Tax Data

Amy O'Hara, Stephanie Straus, Ron Borzekowski, Paul Arnsberger and Barry Johnson

32968: Experimentally Validating Welfare Evaluation of School Vouchers

Peter Arcidiacono, Karthik Muralidharan and John Singleton

32967: Of Markets and Marriages: A Multidisciplinary, Multibook Review Essay of Recent Work on the Causes of U.S. Poverty

Elizabeth Ananat

32966: The Rapid Adoption of Generative AI

Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin and David Deming

32965: Patent Hunters

Lauren Cohen, Umit Gurun, Katie Moon and Paula Suh

32964: Do Higher Tipped Minimum Wages Reduce Race, Ethnic, or Gender Earnings Gaps for Restaurant Workers?

David Neumark and Emma Wohl

32963: Climate Change through the Lens of Macroeconomic Modeling

Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, Kenneth Gillingham and Simon Scheidegger

32962: Aid for Incumbents: The Electoral Consequences of COVID-19 Relief

Jeffrey Clemens, Julia A. Payson and Stan Veuger

32961: Optimal Financing of Government Purchases

Andrew Abel and Stavros Panageas

32960: Green Bonds: New Label, Same Projects

Pauline Lam and Jeffrey Wurgler

32959: The Impact of Early Childhood Parenting Interventions on Child Learning: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Kimberly Dadisman, Andre Nickow and Philip Oreopoulos

32958: The Distributional Consequences of Trade: Evidence from the Grain Invasion

Stephan Heblich, Stephen Redding and Yanos Zylberberg

32957: The Resilience of Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) Countries During ECB’s Monetary Cycles

Joshua Aizenman and Jamel Saadaoui

32956: Why Do Workers Dislike Inflation? Wage Erosion and Conflict Costs

Joao Guerreiro, Jonathon Hazell, Chen Lian and Christina Patterson

32955: Measuring the Costs and Benefits of Regulation

Matilde Bombardini, Francesco Trebbi and Miao Ben Zhang

32954: Inclusive Teaching: Spotting Social Isolation in the Classroom

Sule Alan, Michela Carlana and Marinella Leone

32953: The Increasing Cost of Buying American

Matilde Bombardini, Andres Gonzalez-Lira, Bingjing Li and Chiara Motta

32952: Horowitz-Manski-Lee Bounds With Multilayered Sample Selection

Kory Kroft, Ismael Mourifié and Atom Vayalinkal

32951: Putting the "Finance" into "Public Finance": A Theory of Capital Gains Taxation

Mark Aguiar, Benjamin Moll and Florian Scheuer

32950: Hell with the Lid Off: Racial Segregation and Environmental Equity in America’s Most Polluted City

Spencer Banzhaf, William Mathews and Randall Walsh

32949: Information and Market Power in DeFi Intermediation

Pablo Azar, Adrian Casillas and Maryam Farboodi

32948: On the Nature of Entrepreneurship

Anmol Bhandari, Tobey Kass, Thomas J. May, Ellen McGrattan and Evan Schulz

32947: Hidden Debt Revelations

Sebastian Horn, David Mihalyi, Philipp Nickol and Cesar Sosa-Padilla

32946: Social Status, Economic Development and Female Labor Force (Non) Participation

Kaivan Munshi and Swapnil Singh

32945: Inflation Expectation and Cryptocurrency Investment

Lin Cong, Pulak Ghosh, Jiasun Li and Qihong Ruan

32944: Cournot Competition, Informational Feedback, and Real Efficiency

Lin Cong, Xiaohong Huang, Siguang Li and Jian Ni

32943: Work from Home and Disability Employment

Nicholas Bloom, Gordon Dahl and Dan-Olof Rooth

32942: Expected EPS × Trailing P/E

Itzhak Ben-David and Alex Chinco

32941: Voting Rules, Turnout, and Economic Policies

Enrico Cantoni, Vincent Pons and Jérôme Schäfer

32940: Data Privacy for Record Linkage and Beyond

Shurong Lin and Eric Kolaczyk

32939: The Effect of Inflation Uncertainty on Household Expectations and Spending

Olena Kostyshyna and Luba Petersen

32938: Firm Productivity and Learning in the Digital Economy: Evidence from Cloud Computing

James M. Brand, Mert Demirer, Connor Finucane and Avner Kreps

32937: Carbon VIX: Carbon Price Uncertainty and Decarbonization Investments

Maximilian Fuchs, Johannes Stroebel and Julian Terstegge

32936: Perpetual Futures Pricing

Damien Ackerer, Julien Hugonnier and Urban Jermann

32935: Assessing Nonresponse Bias in Macro Indicators by Combining Para-, Administrative, and Survey Data

Ori Heffetz, Guy Lichtinger and Daniel B. Reeves

32934: Patent Text and Long-Run Innovation Dynamics: The Critical Role of Model Selection

Ina Ganguli, Jeffrey Lin, Vitaly Meursault and Nicholas Reynolds

32933: Climate Capitalists

Niels Gormsen, Kilian Huber and Sangmin Simon Oh

32932: The New Digital Divide

Mayana Pereira, Shane Greenstein, Raffaella Sadun, Prasanna Tambe, Lucia Ronchi Darre, Tammy Glazer, Allen Kim, Rahul Dodhia and Juan Lavista Ferres

32931: Black Reparations and Child Well-Being: A Framework and Policy Considerations

Lisa A. Gennetian, Christina M. Gibson-Davis and William Darity

32930: Democracy, Capitalism, and Equality: The Importance of Impersonal Rules

Naomi R. Lamoreaux and John Joseph Wallis

32929: Gender Reveals in the Labor Market: Evidence on Gender Signaling and Statistical Discrimination in an Online Health Care Market

Haoran He, David Neumark and Qian Weng

32928: Business Failures by Branch of Business in the United States, 1895 to 1935: A Statistical History

Gary Richardson, Marco Del Angel and Michael Gou

32927: Instrumental Variables with Unobserved Heterogeneity in Treatment Effects

Magne Mogstad and Alexander Torgovitsky

32926: The Realities Of Disclosure Risks In The Age Of Dark Patterns And Big Data

Ramon Abraham A. Sarmiento

32925: Own-Wage Elasticity: Quantifying the Impact of Minimum Wages on Employment

Arindrajit Dube and Ben Zipperer

32924: The Nonlinear Effects of Air Pollution on Health: Evidence from Wildfire Smoke

Nolan H. Miller, David Molitor and Eric Zou

32923: An Anatomy of Firms’ Political Speech

Pablo Ottonello, Wenting Song and Sebastian Sotelo

32922: Estimating Flexible Income Processes from Subjective Expectations Data: Evidence from India and Colombia

Manuel Arellano, Orazio Attanasio, Samuel Crossman and Víctor Sancibrián

32921: Optimal Monetary Policy with Redistribution

Jennifer La'O and Wendy A. Morrison

32920: Judges Judging Judges: Partisanship and Politics in the Federal Circuit Courts of Appeals

Alma Cohen and Rajeev Dehejia

32919: Optimal Trade Policies and Labor Markets

Yan Bai, Dan Lu and Hanxi Wang

32918: Businesses and Borrowing during the Roaring ‘20s and at the Onset of the Great Depression

Gary Richardson and Marco Del Angel

32917: Credit Scores: Performance and Equity

Stefania Albanesi and Domonkos F. Vamossy

32916: Racial Differences in the Total Rate of Return on Owner-Occupied Housing

Rebecca Diamond and William Diamond

32915: Is Broader Always Better? Preexisting Distortions, Emissions Elasticities, and the Scope of Emissions Pricing

Lawrence H. Goulder, Marc Hafstead and Roberton Williams

32914: Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Disaggregated Economies

Lydia Cox, Jiacheng Feng, Gernot Müller, Ernesto Pasten, Raphael Schoenle and Michael Weber

32913: Effective Regulation and Firm Compliance: The Case of German Privacy Policies

Jacopo Gambato, Bernhard Ganglmair and Julia K. Krämer

32912: Understanding the Impact of Low-Cost Loans on Forced Labor

Anisha Sharma, Manisha Shah and Beata Łuczywek