NBER Working Papers

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25911: Perspectives on U.S. Monetary Policy Tools and Instruments

James D. Hamilton

25910: Long-Run Environmental Accounting in the U.S. Economy

Nicholas Muller

25909: Hoarding for Stormy Days - Test of International Reserves Providing Financial Buffer Services

Joshua Aizenman and Yothin Jinjarak

25908: Business Groups and the Incorporation of Firm-specific Shocks into Stock Prices

Mara Faccio, Randall Morck and M. Deniz Yavuz

25907: The Use and Misuse of Income Data and Extreme Poverty in the United States

Bruce Meyer, Derek Wu, Victoria R. Mooers and Carla Medalia

25906: Affordable Housing and City Welfare

Jack Favilukis, Pierre Mabille and Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

25905: Student Loan Choice Overload

Benjamin Marx and Lesley Turner

25904: Two-way Fixed Effects Estimators with Heterogeneous Treatment Effects

Clément de Chaisemartin and Xavier D'Haultfoeuille

25903: Designing Effective Teacher Performance Pay Programs: Experimental Evidence from Tanzania

Isaac Mbiti, Mauricio Romero and Youdi Schipper

25902: When Dad Can Stay Home: Fathers' Workplace Flexibility and Maternal Health

Petra Persson and Maya Rossin-Slater

25901: Factions, Local Accountability, and Long-Term Development: Theory and Evidence

Hanming Fang, Linke Hou, Mingxing Liu, Lixin Xu and Pengfei Zhang

25900: The Macroeconomics of the Greek Depression

Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, Loukas Karabarbounis and Rohan Kekre

25899: A Machine Learning Analysis of Seasonal and Cyclical Sales in Weekly Scanner Data

Rishab Guha and Serena Ng

25898: Distributional Effects of Education on Health

Silvia Barcellos, Leandro Carvalho and Patrick Turley

25897: Interbank Connections, Contagion and Bank Distress in the Great Depression

Charles Calomiris, Matthew Jaremski and David Wheelock

25896: Contemporary State Policies and Intergenerational Income Mobility

Lars Lefgren, Jaren Pope and David P. Sims

25895: Optimal Positive Capital Taxes at Interior Steady States

Jess Benhabib and Bálint Szőke

25894: Assessing the Benefits of Long-Run Weather Forecasting for the Rural Poor: Farmer Investments and Worker Migration in a Dynamic Equilibrium Model

Mark Rosenzweig and Christopher Udry

25893: The Changing Structure of American Innovation: Some Cautionary Remarks for Economic Growth

Ashish Arora, Sharon Belenzon, Andrea Patacconi and Jungkyu Suh

25892: Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve

Michael McLeay and Silvana Tenreyro

25891: The Regulation of Private Money

Gary Gorton

25890: Boom-Bust Capital Flow Cycles

Graciela Kaminsky

25889: Intergenerational and Intragenerational Externalities of the Perry Preschool Project

James J. Heckman and Ganesh Karapakula

25888: The Perry Preschoolers at Late Midlife: A Study in Design-Specific Inference

James J. Heckman and Ganesh Karapakula

25887: A Theory of Participation in OTC and Centralized Markets

Jérôme Dugast, Semih Üslü and Pierre-Olivier Weill

25886: Understanding the Mechanisms of Parental Divorce Effects on Child’s Higher Education

Yen-Chien Chen, Elliott Fan and Jin-Tan Liu

25885: Signaling and Employer Learning with Instruments

Gaurab Aryal, Manudeep Bhuller and Fabian Lange

25884: Controlling Tuberculosis? Evidence from the First Community-Wide Health Experiment

Karen Clay, Peter Juul Egedesø, Casper Worm Hansen, Peter Jensen and Avery Calkins

25883: It's the Phone, Stupid: Mobiles and Murder

Lena Edlund and Cecilia Machado

25882: Common Risk Factors in Cryptocurrency

Yukun Liu, Aleh Tsyvinski and Xi Wu

25881: Aiming for the Goal: Contribution Dynamics of Crowdfunding

Joyee Deb, Aniko Oery and Kevin Williams

25880: Social Norms as a Determinant of Aggregate Labor Supply

Emily Breza, Supreet Kaur and Nandita Krishnaswamy

25879: The Indeterminacy School in Macroeconomics

Roger Farmer

25878: Excessive Entry and Exit in Export Markets

Hiroyuki Kasahara and Heiwai Tang

25877: On the Equivalence of Private and Public Money

Markus Brunnermeier and Dirk Niepelt

25876: Borrowing to Save? The Impact of Automatic Enrollment on Debt

John Beshears, James Choi, David Laibson, Brigitte Madrian and William Skimmyhorn

25875: The Gift of Global Talent: Innovation Policy and the Economy

William Kerr

25874: Demographic Origins of the Startup Deficit

Fatih Karahan, Benjamin Pugsley and Ayşegül Şahin

25873: Information, Mobile Communication, and Referral Effects

Panle Barwick, Yanyan Liu, Eleonora Patacchini and Qi Wu

25872: Communication within Banking Organizations and Small Business Lending

Ross Levine, Chen Lin, Qilin Peng and Wensi Xie

25871: Industrialization without Innovation

Paula Bustos, Juan Manuel Castro-Vincenzi, Joan Monras and Jacopo Ponticelli

25870: Reclassification to Avoid Consumer Cost-Sharing in Group Health Plans

Olesya Fomenko and Jonathan Gruber

25869: Understanding Weak Capital Investment: the Role of Market Concentration and Intangibles

Nicolas Crouzet and Janice Eberly

25868: Disentangling Global Value Chains

Alonso de Gortari

25867: Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends

Andrew Foerster, Andreas Hornstein, Pierre-Daniel Sarte and Mark Watson

25866: Expectations, Wage Hikes, and Worker Voice: Evidence from a Field Experiment

Achyuta Adhvaryu, Teresa Molina and Anant Nyshadham

25865: Management and Shocks to Worker Productivity

Achyuta Adhvaryu, Namrata Kala and Anant Nyshadham

25864: Accumulation of Human and Market Capital in the United States, 1975-2012: An Analysis by Gender

Barbara M. Fraumeni and Michael S. Christian

25863: The Impact of Legalized Abortion on Crime over the Last Two Decades

John Donohue and Steven Levitt

25862: International Business Travel and Technology Sourcing

Nune Hovhannisyan and Wolfgang Keller

25861: Fiduciary Duty and the Market for Financial Advice

Vivek Bhattacharya, Gastón Illanes and Manisha Padi

25860: Trade Protectionism and US Manufacturing Employment

Chunding Li, Jing Wang and John Whalley

25859: Military Service and Public Sector Employment: Birthdates Called in the Vietnam Draft Lotteries Appear Excessively in the Population of Civilian U.S. Federal Personnel Records

Tim Johnson and Dalton Conley

25858: Stability of Experimental Results: Forecasts and Evidence

Stefano DellaVigna and Devin Pope

25857: Reputation Inflation

Apostolos Filippas, John J. Horton and Joseph M. Golden

25856: A Study of Exclusionary Coalitions: The Canadian Sugar Coalition, 1888–1889

John Asker and C. Scott Hemphill

25855: A Theory of Stock Exchange Competition and Innovation: Will the Market Fix the Market?

Eric Budish, Robin Lee and John J. Shim

25854: Simplicity Creates Inequity: Implications for Fairness, Stereotypes, and Interpretability

Jon Kleinberg and Sendhil Mullainathan

25853: The Role of Top Managers in the Public Sector: Evidence from the English NHS

Katharina Janke, Carol Propper and Raffaella Sadun

25852: Managerial Quality and Productivity Dynamics

Achyuta Adhvaryu, Anant Nyshadham and Jorge A. Tamayo

25851: Can Financial Participants Improve Price Discovery and Efficiency in Multi-Settlement Markets with Trading Costs?

Akshaya Jha and Frank A. Wolak

25850: Population Aging, Age Discrimination, and Age Discrimination Protections at the 50th Anniversary of the Age Discrimination in Employment Act

Patrick Button

25849: Employment Discrimination against Indigenous Peoples in the United States: Evidence from a Field Experiment

Patrick Button and Brigham Walker

25848: The Science of Using Science: Towards an Understanding of the Threats to Scaling Experiments

Omar Al-Ubaydli, John List and Dana Suskind

25847: Do Stricter Immunization Laws Improve Coverage? Evidence from the Repeal of Non-medical Exemptions for School Mandated Vaccines

Chelsea J. Richwine, Avi Dor and Ali Moghtaderi

25846: Physician Bias and Racial Disparities in Health: Evidence from Veterans' Pensions

Shari Eli, Trevon Logan and Boriana Miloucheva

25845: Consumer Myopia in Vehicle Purchases: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

Kenneth Gillingham, Sébastien Houde and Arthur van Benthem

25844: The Illusion of Stable Preferences over Major Life Decisions

Maximilian W. Mueller, Joan Hamory Hicks, Jennifer Johnson-Hanks and Edward Miguel

25843: Peer Effects in Product Adoption

Michael Bailey, Drew M. Johnston, Theresa Kuchler, Johannes Stroebel and Arlene Wong

25842: Should We Tax Sugar-Sweetened Beverages? An Overview of Theory and Evidence

Hunt Allcott, Benjamin Lockwood and Dmitry Taubinsky

25841: Regressive Sin Taxes, With an Application to the Optimal Soda Tax

Hunt Allcott, Benjamin Lockwood and Dmitry Taubinsky

25840: Equilibrium Trade in Automobile Markets

Kenneth Gillingham, Fedor Iskhakov, Anders Munk-Nielsen, John Rust and Bertel Schjerning

25839: Special Deals with Chinese Characteristics

Chong-En Bai, Chang-Tai Hsieh and Zheng Michael Song

25838: Rationalizing Trading Frequency and Returns: Maybe Trading is Good for You

Yosef Bonaparte, Russell Cooper and Mengli Sha

25837: Transforming Naturally Occurring Text Data Into Economic Statistics: The Case of Online Job Vacancy Postings

Arthur Turrell, Bradley J. Speigner, Jyldyz Djumalieva, David Copple and James Thurgood

25836: Immigration and Economic Growth

George Borjas

25835: Hurricanes, Climate Change Policies and Electoral Accountability

Stefano Gagliarducci, M. Daniele Paserman and Eleonora Patacchini

25834: Pay Transparency and the Gender Gap

Michael Baker, Yosh Halberstam, Kory Kroft, Alexandre Mas and Derek Messacar

25833: Can Blockchain Solve the Hold-up Problem in Contracts?

Richard T. Holden and Anup Malani

25832: Family and Government Insurance: Wage, Earnings, and Income Risks in the Netherlands and the U.S

Mariacristina De Nardi, Giulio Fella, Marike Knoef, Gonzalo Paz-Pardo and Raun Van Ooijen

25831: Pigou Creates Losers: On the Implausibility of Achieving Pareto Improvements from Efficiency-Enhancing Policies

James M. Sallee

25830: Trade Blocs and Trade Wars during the Interwar Period

David Jacks and Dennis Novy

25829: School Segregation and Racial Gaps in Special Education Identification

Todd Elder, David Figlio, Scott Imberman and Claudia Persico

25828: The Role of Neonatal Health in the Incidence of Childhood Disability

Todd Elder, David Figlio, Scott Imberman and Claudia Persico

25827: Nonparametric Estimates of Demand in the California Health Insurance Exchange

Pietro Tebaldi, Alexander Torgovitsky and Hanbin Yang

25826: Double-Counting of Investment

Robert Barro

25825: Automated Linking of Historical Data

Ran Abramitzky, Leah Boustan, Katherine Eriksson, James Feigenbaum and Santiago Perez

25824: Multinationals, Offshoring and the Decline of U.S. Manufacturing

Christoph Boehm, Aaron Flaaen and Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

25823: Estimating Selection Models without Instrument with Stata

Xavier D'Haultfoeuille, Arnaud Maurel, Xiaoyun Qiu and Yichong Zhang

25822: Do Income Contingent Student Loan Programs Distort Earnings? Evidence from the UK

Jack Britton and Jonathan Gruber

25821: Tax Mechanisms and Gradient Flows

Stefan Steinerberger and Aleh Tsyvinski

25820: On the Empirical (Ir)Relevance of the Zero Lower Bound Constraint

Davide Debortoli, Jordi Galí and Luca Gambetti

25819: Errors in the Dependent Variable of Quantile Regression Models

Jerry A. Hausman, Haoyang Liu, Ye Luo and Christopher Palmer

25818: Automating Response Evaluation for Franchising Questions on the 2017 Economic Census

Joseph Staudt, Yifang Wei, Lisa Singh, Shawn Klimek, J. Jensen and Andrew L. Baer

25817: Premium for Heightened Uncertainty: Explaining Pre-Announcement Market Returns

Grace Xing Hu, Jun Pan, Jiang Wang and Haoxiang Zhu

25816: The Struggle Towards Macroeconomic Stability: Analytical Essay

Assaf Razin

25815: The Politics of CEOs

Alma Cohen, Moshe Hazan, Roberto Tallarita and David Weiss

25814: Institutional Trading Around M&A Announcements

Eliezer Fich, Viktoriya Lantushenko and Clemens Sialm

25813: Are Millennials Really So Selfish? Preliminary Evidence from the Philanthropy Panel Study

Peter Koczanski and Harvey Rosen

25812: An Empirical History of the United States Postal Savings System

Steven Sprick Schuster, Matthew Jaremski and Elisabeth Perlman