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Unemployment in the Time of COVID-19: A Flow-Based Approach to Real-time Unemployment Projections

Aysegul Sahin (), Murat Tasci and Jin Yan

No 28445, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: This paper presents a flow-based methodology for real-time unemployment rate projections and shows that this approach performed considerably better at the onset of the COVID-19 recession in the spring 2020 in predicting the peak unemployment rate as well as its rapid decline over the year. It presents an alternative scenario analysis for 2021 based on this methodology and argues that the unemployment rate is likely to decline to 5.4 percent by the end of 2021. The predictive power of the methodology comes from its combined use of real-time data with the flow approach.

JEL-codes: E24 E32 J6 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-lab and nep-mac
Note: EFG ME
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