NBER Working Papers

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4606: The Political Economy of Declining Industries: Senescent Industry Collapse Revisited

S. Lael Brainard and Thierry Verdier

4605: Determinants of the Timing and Incidence of Exploratory Drilling on Offshort Wildcat Tracts

Kenneth Hendricks and Robert Porter

4604: The Simplest Test of Inflation Target Credibility

Lars E.O. Svensson

4603: Uncovering Some Causal Relationships between Productivity Growth and the Structure of Economic Fluctuations: A Tentative Survey

Philippe Aghion and Gilles Saint-Paul

4602: Open Door Policy and China's Rapid Growth: Evidence from City-level Data

Shang-Jin Wei

4601: The Effects of Demographic Trends on Consumption, Saving and Government Expenditures in the U.S

Michael D. Hurd

4600: The Wealth of Cohorts: Retirement Saving and the Changing Assets of Older Americans

David Wise and Steven Venti

4599: The Role of Judgment and Discretion in the Conduct of Monetary Policy: Consequences of Changing Financial Markets

Benjamin M. Friedman

4598: Tests of CAPM on an International Portfolio of Bonds and Stocks

Charles Engel

4597: The Politics of Free Trade Agreements

Gene Grossman and Elhanan Helpman

4596: Jumps and Stochastic Volatility: Exchange Rate Processes Implicit in thePHLX Deutschemark Options

David S. Bates

4595: An Exploratory Investigation of the Fundamental Determinants of National Equity Market Returns

Wayne Ferson and Campbell R. Harvey

4594: Health Insurance and Early Retirement: Evidence from the Availability of Continuation Coverage

Jonathan Gruber and Brigitte Madrian

4593: The Military Pension, Compensation, and Retirement of U.S. Air Force Pilots

John A. Ausink and David Wise

4592: Price Volatility and Volume Spillovers between the Tokyo and New York Stock Markets

Takatoshi Ito and Wen-Ling Lin

4591: Estimation of the Depreciation Rate of Physical and R&D Capital in the U.S. Total Manufacturing Sector

M. Ishaq Nadiri and Ingmar Prucha

4590: The Internationalization of Equity Markets

Jeffrey Frankel

4589: The Labor Market Effects of Introducing National Health Insurance: Evidence from Canada

Jonathan Gruber and Maria Hanratty

4588: Continental Trading Blocs: Are They Natural, or Super-Natural?

Jeffrey Frankel, Ernesto Stein and Shang-Jin Wei

4587: International Experiences with Securities Transaction Taxes

John Campbell and Kenneth Froot

4586: Should Liability be Based on the Harm to the Victim or the Gain to the Injurer?

A. Mitchell Polinsky and Steven Shavell

4585: Re-Employment Probabilities over the Business Cycle

Guido Imbens and Lisa Lynch

4584: Language, Employment and Earnings in the United States: Spanish-English Differentials from 1970 to 1990

David Bloom and Gilles Grenier

4583: An Empirical Assessment of the Factor Proportions Explanation of Multi-National Sales

S. Lael Brainard

4582: Energy Taxes: Traditional Efficiency Effects and Environmental Implications

Lawrence H. Goulder

4581: Tax Evasion and the Allocation of Capital

Don Fullerton and Marios Karayannis

4580: An Empirical Assessment of the Proximity-Concentration Tradeoff between Multinational Sales and Trade

S. Lael Brainard

4579: The Effect of Equity Barriers on Foreign Investment in Developing Countries

Stijn Claessens and Moon-Whoan Rhee

4578: The Dynamics of High Inflation

Laurence Ball

4577: Evidence on Macroeconomic Complementarities

Russell Cooper and John Haltiwanger

4576: Energy Taxes and Aggregate Economic Activity

Julio Rotemberg and Michael Woodford

4575: Does Electoral Accountability Affect Economic Policy Choices? Evidence from Gubernatorial Term Limits

Timothy Besley and Anne Case

4574: No Place Like Home: Tax Incentives and the Location of R&D by American Multinationals

James R. Hines, Jr.

4573: Is the Discount Window Necessary? A Penn-Central Perspective

Charles Calomiris

4572: Elderly Health, Housing, and Mobility

Jonathan Feinstein

4571: What Moves the Discount on Country Equity Funds?

Gikas A. Hardouvelis, Rafael La Porta and Thierry A. Wizman

4570: Employment Effects of Minimum and Subminimum Wages: Reply to Card, Katz and Krueger

David Neumark and William Wascher

4569: Dissaving by the Elderly, Transfer Motives and Liquidity Constraints

Albert Ando, Luigi Guiso and Daniele Terlizzese

4568: Prices, Wages, and Employment in the U.S. Economy: A Traditional Model and Tests of Some Alternatives

Albert Ando and Flint Brayton

4567: Taking Trade Policy Seriously: Export Subsidization as a Case Study in Policy Effectiveness

Dani Rodrik

4566: Should the Government's Allocation Branch be Concerned about the Distortionary Cost of Taxation and Distributive Effects?

Louis Kaplow

4565: The Role of Macroeconomic Factors in Growth

Stanley Fischer

4564: The Influence of Nonmarital Childbearing on the Formation of First Marriages

Neil G. Bennett, David Bloom and Cynthia K. Miller

4563: Immigration, Investment and Real Wages

Elise Brezis and Paul Krugman

4562: Entry and Exit, Product Variety and the Business Cycle

Satyajit Chatterjee and Russell Cooper

4561: Technology and the Life Cycle of Cities

Elise Brezis and Paul Krugman

4560: Evaluation of Subjective Probability Distributions in the HRS

Michael D. Hurd and Kathleen McGarry

4559: Integration, Specialization, and the Adjustment

Paul Krugman and Anthony Venables

4558: The Relationship Between Job Characteristics and Retirement

Michael Hurd and Kathleen McGarry

4557: Financing Apprenticeship Training: Evidence from Germany

Dietmar Harhoff and Thomas J. Kane

4556: Foreign Competition, Market Power and Wage Inequality: Theory and Evidence

George Borjas and Valerie Ramey

4555: The High Cost of Eating: Agricultural Protection and International Differences in Consumer Food Prices

Robert Lipsey and Birgitta Swedenborg

4554: Understanding Risk and Return

John Campbell

4553: The Japanese Trade Balance: Recent History and Future Prospects

David Backus

4552: Is Housing Wealth a Sideshow?

Jonathan Skinner

4551: The Effect of Convicton on Income Through the Life Cycle

Daniel Nagin and Joel Waldfogel

4550: The Gender Gap, Fertility, and Growth

Oded Galor and David Weil

4549: Econometric Estimates of Prices Indexes for Personal Computers in the 1990s

Ernst R. Berndt, Zvi Griliches and Neal Rappaport

4548: Labor Adjustment Under Different Institutional Structures: A Case Study of Germany and The United States

Susan N. Houseman and Katharine Abraham

4547: Rules, Discretion, and Central Bank Independence: The German Experience 1880-1989

Bernhard Eschweiler and Michael Bordo

4546: A Comparison of the United States and Canadian Banking Systems in the Twentieth Century: Stability vs. Efficiency?

Michael Bordo, Hugh Rockoff and Angela Redish

4545: Short-run and Long-run Expectations of the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate

Takatoshi Ito

4544: Term, Inflation, and Foreign Exchange Risk Premia: A Unified Treatment

Lars E.O. Svensson

4543: Multilateral Tariff Cooperation during the Formation of Customs Unions

Kyle Bagwell and Robert W. Staiger

4542: Does Profit Sharing Affect Productivity?

Douglas Kruse

4541: Earnings Inequality in Germany

Katharine Abraham and Susan N. Houseman

4540: The Output Contributions of Computer Equipment and Personnel: A Firm- Level Analysis

Frank Lichtenberg

4539: Welfare and the Well-Being of Children: The Relative Effectiveness of Cash and In-Kind Transfers

Janet Currie

4538: Endogenous Growth, Public Capital, and the Convergence of Regional Manufacturing Industries

Charles R. Hulten and Robert M. Schwab

4537: Health, Income, and Retirement: Evidence from Nineteenth Century America

Dora Costa

4536: Market Structure and International Trade: Business Groups in East Asia

Robert Feenstra, Tzu-Han Yang and Gary G. Hamilton

4535: The Efficiency Cost of Increased Progressivity

Robert Triest

4534: International Capital Mobility in the 1990s

Maurice Obstfeld

4533: Information and Economic Efficiency

Richard Arnott, Bruce Greenwald and Joseph Stiglitz

4532: Does Central Bank Intervention Increase the Volatility of Foreign Exchange Rates?

Kathryn Dominguez

4531: Collateral Damage: How Refinancing Constraints Exacerbate Regional Recessions

Andrew Caplin, Charles Freeman and Joseph Tracy

4530: Aging in Germany and the United States: International Comparisons

Axel Borsch-Supan

4529: Estimating Sectoral Cycles Using Cointegration and Common Features

Robert Engle and João Issler

4528: An Evaluation of Recent Evidence on the Employment Effects of Minimum and Subminimum Wages

David Card, Lawrence Katz and Alan Krueger

4527: Endogenous Innovation in the Theory of Growth

Gene Grossman and Elhanan Helpman

4526: Entrepreneurial Decisions and Liquidity Constraints

Douglas Holtz-Eakin, David Joulfaian and Harvey Rosen

4525: On the Optimal Taxation of Capital Income

Larry Jones, Rodolfo Manuelli and Peter Rossi

4524: A Revealed Preference Analysis of Asset Pricing Under Recursive Utility

Larry Epstein and Angelo Melino

4523: Growth and the Effects of Inflation

Larry Jones and Rodolfo Manuelli

4522: Currency Option Pricing in Credible Target Zones

Bernard Dumas, Peter Jennergren and Bertil Naslund

4521: The Economic Reality of the Beauty Myth

Susan Averett and Sanders Korenman

4520: A Test of Efficiency for the S&P Index Option Market Using Variance Forecasts

Jaesun Noh, Robert Engle and Alex Kane

4519: Index-Option Pricing with Stochastic Volatility and the Value of Accurate Variance Forecasts

Robert Engle, Alex Kane and Jaesun Noh

4518: Beauty and the Labor Market

Daniel S. Hamermesh and Jeff Biddle

4517: Short-Run Independence of Monetary Policy Under Pegged Exchange Rates and Effects of Money on Exchange Rates and Interest Rates

Alan C. Stockman and Lee Ohanian

4516: The Importance of Precautionary Motives in Explaining Individual and Aggregate Saving

R. Glenn Hubbard, Jonathan Skinner and Stephen Zeldes

4515: A Small Open Economy in Depression: Lessons from Canada in the 1930s

Caroline Betts, Michael Bordo and Angela Redish

4514: Short-Term Contracts as a Monitoring Device

Patrick Rey and Joseph Stiglitz

4513: Discrete Plant-Location Decisions in an Applied General-Equilibrium Model of Trade Liberalization

James Markusen and Thomas Rutherford

4512: Anti-Competitive and Rent-Shifting Aspects of Domestic-Content Provisions in Regional Trade Blocks

Florencio Lopez- de-Silane, James Markusen and Thomas Rutherford

4511: Trade Policy, Exchange Rates and Growth

Sebastian Edwards

4510: Privatization of Social Security: Lessons from Chile

Peter Diamond

4509: Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania

David Card and Alan Krueger

4508: The Selection Hypothesis and the Relationship between Trial and Plaintiff Victory

Joel Waldfogel

4507: Optimal Awards and Penalties when the Probability of Prevailing Varies Among Plaintiffs

A. Mitchell Polinsky and Daniel L. Rubinfeld