NBER Working Papers

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31646: Regulatory Arbitrage or Random Errors? Implications of Race Prediction Algorithms in Fair Lending Analysis

Daniel Greenwald, Sabrina T. Howell, Cangyuan Li and Emmanuel Yimfor

31645: Committing to Grow: Privatizations and Firm Dynamics in East Germany

Ufuk Akcigit, Harun Alp, André Diegmann (geb. Nolte) and Nicolas Serrano-Velarde

31644: Keep Calm and Bank On: Panic-Driven Bank Runs and the Role of Public Communication

Damiano Sandri, Francesco Grigoli, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Olivier Coibion

31643: Encouraging Preventative Care to Manage Chronic Disease at Scale

Claire E. Boone, Pablo Celhay, Paul Gertler and Tadeja Gracner

31642: The Fast, the Slow, and the Congested: Urban Transportation in Rich and Poor Countries

Prottoy Akbar, Victor Couture, Gilles Duranton and Adam Storeygard

31641: The Limits of Educational Attainment in Mitigating Occupational Segregation Between Black and White Workers

Ashley Jardina, Peter Q. Blair, Justin Heck and Papia Debroy

31640: Target Date Funds as Asset Market Stabilizers: Evidence from the Pandemic

Jonathan Parker and Yang Sun

31639: Insuring those Who Bear the Risk: The Impact of Gender-inclusive Insurance in Kenya

Julian Arteaga, Michael Carter and Andrew Hobbs

31638: The Value of Communication for Mental Health

Francis Annan and Belinda Archibong

31637: Prison Labor: The Price of Prisons and the Lasting Effects of Incarceration

Belinda Archibong and Nonso Obikili

31636: Voting Choice

Andrey Malenko and Nadya Malenko

31635: Judging Banks’ Risk by the Profits They Report

Ben Meiselman, Stefan Nagel and Amiyatosh Purnanandam

31634: The Effect of Immigration Policy on Founding Location Choice: Evidence from Canada's Start-up Visa Program

Saerom (Ronnie) Lee and Britta Glennon

31633: Corporate Social Responsibility and Voting over Public Goods

Andrew Samwick and Sophie Wang

31632: Hidden Figures: Uncovering Quantities Behind Zeros with Econometrics

Anirban Basu

31631: How People Use Statistics

Pedro Bordalo, John J. Conlon, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon and Andrei Shleifer

31630: Show Me the Money! Incentives and Nudges to Shift Electric Vehicle Charge Timing

Megan R. Bailey, David Brown, Blake Shaffer and Frank A. Wolak

31629: Welfare Estimates of Shifting Peak Travel

Robert W. Hahn, Robert Metcalfe and Eddy Tam

31628: Retirement Consumption and Pension Design

Jonas Kolsrud, Camille Landais, Daniel Reck and Johannes Spinnewijn

31627: Are Software Automation and Teleworkers Substitutes? Preliminary Evidence from Japan

Richard Baldwin and Toshihiro Okubo

31626: Do PCI Facility Openings Differentially Affect AMI Patients by Individual Race and Community Segregation?

Renee Y. Hsia and Yu-Chu Shen

31625: Supporting Women’s Livelihoods at Scale: Evidence from a Nationwide Multi-Faceted Program

Ioana Botea, Andrew Brudevold-Newman, Markus Goldstein, Corinne Low and Gareth Roberts

31624: Sex, Power, and Adolescence: Intimate Partner Violence and Sexual Behaviors

Manisha Shah, Jennifer Seager, Joao Montalvao and Markus Goldstein

31623: Which Mexicans Are White? Enumerator-Assigned Race in the 1930 Census and the Socioeconomic Integration of Mexican Americans

Brian Duncan and Stephen Trejo

31622: Innovation Market Failures and the Design of New Climate Policy Instruments

Sarah C. Armitage, Noël Bakhtian and Adam Jaffe

31621: Tax Credits for Clean Electricity: The Distributional Impacts of Supply-Push Policies in the Power Sector

Maxwell L. Brown, Jon M. Becker, Jared Carbone, Teagan Goforth, James McFarland, Destenie Nock, Kristina Pitman and Daniel C. Steinberg

31620: What Predicts the Growth of Small Firms? Evidence from Tanzanian Commercial Loan Data

Mia Ellis, Cynthia Kinnan, Margaret McMillan and Sarah Shaukat

31619: Political Sentiment and Innovation: Evidence from Patenters

Joseph Engelberg, Runjing Lu, William Mullins and Richard R. Townsend

31618: Greed? Profits, Inflation, and Aggregate Demand

Florin Bilbiie and Diego Känzig

31617: Protests

Davide Cantoni, Andrew Kao, David Yang and Noam Yuchtman

31616: CEO Gender Bias in the Formation of Firm-to-Firm Transactions

Yutaro Izumi, Hitoshi Shigeoka and Masayuki Yagasaki

31615: Clean Growth

Costas Arkolakis and Conor Walsh

31614: Cooking, health, and daily exposure to pollution spikes

Susanna Berkouwer and Joshua Dean

31613: Managing Mental Accounts: Payment Cards and Consumption Expenditures

Michael Gelman and Nikolai Roussanov

31612: An Experimental Evaluation of Deferred Acceptance: Evidence from Over 100 Army Officer Labor Markets

Jonathan Davis, Kyle Greenberg and Damon Jones

31611: Psychosocial Constraints, Impact Heterogeneity and Spillovers in a Multifaceted Graduation Program in Kenya

Geyi Zheng, Michael Carter, Nathan Jensen and Laurel Krovetz

31610: Firm Export Dynamics in Interdependent Markets

Alonso Alfaro-Ureña, Juanma Castro-Vincenzi, Sebastian Fanelli and Eduardo Morales

31609: From Addiction to Aggression: The Spillover Effects of Opioid Policies on Intimate Partner Violence

Dhaval Dave, Bilge Erten, Pinar Keskin and Shuo Zhang

31608: Distributional Equity in the Employment and Wage Impacts of Energy Transitions

Ben Gilbert, Hannah Gagarin and Ben Hoen

31607: Biased Surveys

Luca Gemmi and Rosen Valchev

31606: Market Response to Racial Uprisings

Bocar A. Ba, Roman Rivera and Alexander Whitefield

31605: Incorporating Micro Data into Differentiated Products Demand Estimation with PyBLP

Christopher Conlon and Jeff Gortmaker

31604: Who (Actually) Gets the Farm? Intergenerational Farm Succession in the United States

Adrian Haws, David Just and Joseph Price

31603: The Macroeconomic Effects of the Federal Reserve's Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policies

Eric Swanson

31602: Supply Chain Adjustments to Tariff Shocks: Evidence from Firm Trade Linkages in the 2018-2019 U.S. Trade War

Kyle Handley, Fariha Kamal and Ryan Monarch

31601: Automatic Enrollment with a 12% Default Contribution Rate

John Beshears, Ruofei Guo, David Laibson, Brigitte Madrian and James Choi

31600: An Import(ant) Price of Brexit Uncertainty

Alejandro Graziano, Kyle Handley and Nuno Limão

31599: Global Capital Allocation

Sergio Florez-Orrego, Matteo Maggiori, Jesse Schreger, Ziwen Sun and Serdil Tinda

31598: Women and the Econometrics of Family Trees

José-Antonio Espín-Sánchez, Joseph P. Ferrie and Christopher Vickers

31597: Antitrust Enforcement Increases Economic Activity

Tania Babina, Simcha Barkai, Jessica Jeffers, Ezra Karger and Ekaterina Volkova

31596: The Zero-Beta Interest Rate

Sebastian Di Tella, Benjamin Hebert, Pablo Kurlat and Qitong Wang

31595: The Impact of Bretton Woods International Capital Controls on the Global Economy and the Value of Geopolitical Stability: A General Equilibrium Analysis

Lee Ohanian, Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria, Diana Van Patten and Mark Wright

31594: Do Cops Know Who to Stop? Assessing Optimizing Models of Police Behavior with a Natural Experiment

David Abrams, Hanming Fang and Priyanka Goonetilleke

31593: Seasonal Allergies and Accidents

Mika Akesaka and Hitoshi Shigeoka

31592: Inventor Gender and Patent Undercitation: Evidence from Causal Text Estimation

Yael Hochberg, Ali Kakhbod, Peiyao Li and Kunal Sachdeva

31591: State Capacity as an Organizational Problem. Evidence from the Growth of the U.S. State Over 100 Years

Nicola Mastrorocco and Edoardo Teso

31590: Infrastructure and Finance: Evidence from India's GQ Highway Network

Abhiman Das, Ejaz Ghani, Arti Grover, William Kerr and Ramana Nanda

31589: Domino Secessions: Evidence from the U.S

Jean Lacroix, Kris James Mitchener and Kim Oosterlinck

31588: Industry Wage Differentials: A Firm-Based Approach

David Card, Jesse Rothstein and Moises Yi

31587: Location, Location, Location

David Card, Jesse Rothstein and Moises Yi

31586: Plata y Plomo: How Higher Wages Expose Politicians to Criminal Violence

Massimo Pulejo and Pablo Querubin

31585: Population Aging and Economic Growth: From Demographic Dividend to Demographic Drag?

Rainer Kotschy and David Bloom

31584: Micro MPCs and Macro Counterfactuals: The Case of the 2008 Rebates

Jacob Orchard, Valerie Ramey and Johannes Wieland

31583: Machine Forecast Disagreement

Turan G. Bali, Bryan T. Kelly, Mathis Mörke and Jamil Rahman

31582: Organizational Responses to Product Cycles

Achyuta Adhvaryu, Vittorio Bassi, Anant Nyshadham, Jorge A. Tamayo and Nicolas Torres

31581: The Impact of Criminal Financial Sanctions: A Multi-State Analysis of Survey and Administrative Data

Keith Finlay, Matthew Gross, Carl Lieberman, Elizabeth Luh and Michael G. Mueller-Smith

31580: Roots of Inequality

Oded Galor, Marc Klemp and Daniel Wainstock

31579: Broadband Internet Access and Health Outcomes: Patient and Provider Responses in Medicare

Jessica Van Parys and Zach Brown

31578: Long Term Expectations and Aggregate Fluctuations

Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Rafael La Porta, Matthew O'Brien and Andrei Shleifer

31577: Did the U.S. Really Grow Out of Its World War II Debt?

Julien Acalin and Laurence Ball

31576: The Changing Skill Content of Private Sector Union Coverage

Samuel Dodini, Michael Lovenheim and Alexander Willén

31575: The Value of Intermediaries for GSE Loans

Joshua Bosshardt, Ali Kakhbod and Amir Kermani

31574: Accounting for Environmental Activity: Measuring Public Environmental Expenditures and the Environmental Goods and Services Sector in the US

Dennis Fixler, Julie L. Hass, Tina Highfill, Kelly M. Wentland and Scott A. Wentland

31573: On the Source and Instability of Probability Weighting

Cary Frydman and Lawrence Jin

31572: Skills, Majors, and Jobs: Does Higher Education Respond?

Johnathan G. Conzelmann, Steven W. Hemelt, Brad Hershbein, Shawn M. Martin, Andrew Simon and Kevin Stange

31571: How to Fund Unemployment Insurance with Informality and False Claims: Evidence From Senegal

Abdoulaye Ndiaye, Kyle Herkenhoff, Abdoulaye Cisse, Alessandro Dell'Acqua and Ahmadou Aly Mbaye

31570: The Search for Good Jobs: Evidence from a Six-year Field Experiment in Uganda

Oriana Bandiera, Vittorio Bassi, Robin Burgess, Imran Rasul, Munshi Sulaiman and Anna Vitali

31569: Productivity Variation and Input Misallocation: Evidence from Hospitals

Amitabh Chandra, Carrie Colla and Jonathan Skinner

31568: Causal Effects of Renewable Portfolio Standards on Renewable Investments and Generation: The Role of Heterogeneity and Dynamics

Olivier Deschenes, Christopher Malloy and Gavin G. McDonald

31567: Drinking Water Contaminant Concentrations and Birth Outcomes

Richard DiSalvo and Elaine Hill

31566: The Summer Drop in Female Employment

Brendan M. Price and Melanie Wasserman

31565: Author Country of Origin and Attention on Open Science Platforms: Evidence from COVID-19 Preprints

Caroline Fry and Megan MacGarvie

31564: Testing Above the Limit: Drinking Water Contamination and Test Scores

Michelle M. Marcus

31563: Seniority

DongIk Kang and Miles Kimball

31562: Who Benefits From The Export-Import Bank Aid?

Efraim Benmelech and João Monteiro

31561: Strategic Money and Credit Ledgers

Markus Brunnermeier and Jonathan Payne

31560: The Effect of Child Endowment on Fertility Choices

Victor Lavy and Yeshaya Nussbaum

31559: Monitoring for Waste: Evidence from Medicare Audits

Maggie Shi

31558: Artificial Intelligence and Scientific Discovery: A Model of Prioritized Search

Ajay Agrawal, John McHale and Alexander Oettl

31557: The Effect of Medicaid Expansion on the Take-up of Disability Benefits by Race and Ethnicity

Becky Staiger, Madeline S. Helfer and Jessica Van Parys

31556: School Accountability, Long-Run Criminal Activity, and Self-Sufficiency

Ozkan Eren, David Figlio, Naci Mocan and Orgul Ozturk

31555: The Dynastic Benefits of Early Childhood Education: Participant Benefits and Family Spillovers

Jorge Luis Garcia, Frederik Bennhoff and Duncan Ermini Leaf

31554: Urban Forests: Environmental Health Values and Risks

Jianwei Xing, Zhiren Hu, Fan Xia, Jintao Xu and Eric Zou

31553: The Impact of Public School Choice: Evidence from Los Angeles' Zones of Choice

Christopher Campos and Caitlin Kearns

31552: Trends in Social Security Incentives in Belgium

Anne-Lore Fraikin, Alain Jousten and Mathieu Lefebvre

31551: Market Access and Migration: Evidence from the Panama Canal Opening during the First Great Migration

Sebastian Galiani, Luis F. Jaramillo and Mateo Uribe-Castro

31550: Estimating the Spatial Amplification of Damage Caused by Degradation in the Amazon

Rafael Araujo, Juliano Assunção, Marina Hirota and Jose Scheinkman

31549: Micro vs Macro Labor Supply Elasticities: The Role of Dynamic Returns to Effort

Henrik Kleven, Claus Kreiner, Kristian Larsen and Jakob Søgaard

31548: Unpacking P-Hacking and Publication Bias

Abel Brodeur, Scott Carrell, David Figlio and Lester Lusher

31547: Selling Subscriptions

Liran Einav, Benjamin Klopack and Neale Mahoney