NBER Working Papers

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21045: Ask Your Doctor? Direct-to-Consumer Advertising of Pharmaceuticals

Michael Sinkinson and Amanda Starc

21044: Optimal Carbon Abatement in a Stochastic Equilibrium Model with Climate Change

Christoph Hambel, Holger Kraft and Eduardo Schwartz

21043: Learning to Take Risks? The Effect of Education on Risk-Taking in Financial Markets

Sandra Black, Paul Devereux, Petter Lundborg and Kaveh Majlesi

21042: Exchange Rates, Interest Rates, and the Risk Premium

Charles Engel

21041: Inconsistent Policy Evaluation: A Case Study for a Large Workfare Program

Arthur Alik-Lagrange and Martin Ravallion

21040: Exchange Rate Exposure and Risk Management: The case of Japanese Exporting Firms

Takatoshi Ito, Satoshi Koibuchi, Kiyotaka Sato and Junko Shimizu

21039: Credit, Financial Stability, and the Macroeconomy

Alan Taylor

21038: Temporary Assistance for Needy Families

James Ziliak

21037: An Extrapolative Model of House Price Dynamics

Edward Glaeser and Charles G. Nathanson

21036: Why Are Indian Children So Short?

Seema Jayachandran and Rohini Pande

21035: Tax Cuts For Whom? Heterogeneous Effects of Income Tax Changes on Growth and Employment

Owen Zidar

21034: Quantile Regression with Panel Data

Bryan Graham, Jinyong Hahn, Alexandre Poirier and James Powell

21033: IV Quantile Regression for Group-level Treatments, with an Application to the Distributional Effects of Trade

Denis Chetverikov, Bradley Larsen and Christopher Palmer

21032: Consumer Bankruptcy and Financial Health

Will Dobbie, Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham and Crystal Yang

21031: Do “Consumer-Directed” Health Plans Bend the Cost Curve Over Time?

Amelia Haviland, Matthew D. Eisenberg, Ateev Mehrotra, Peter J. Huckfeldt and Neeraj Sood

21030: Labor Market Polarization Over the Business Cycle

Christopher Foote and Richard W. Ryan

21029: Stuck in the Middle? Structural Change and Productivity Growth in Botswana

Brian McCaig, Margaret McMillan, Iñigo Verduzco-Gallo and Keith Jefferis

21028: The Impact of Consumer Inattention on Insurer Pricing in the Medicare Part D Program

Kate Ho, Joseph Hogan and Fiona Scott Morton

21027: Why are American Workers getting Poorer? China, Trade and Offshoring

Avraham Ebenstein, Ann Harrison and Margaret McMillan

21026: Gambling for Redemption and Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises

Juan Carlos Conesa and Timothy Kehoe

21025: How Individuals Respond to a Liquidity Shock: Evidence from the 2013 Government Shutdown

Michael Gelman, Shachar Kariv, Matthew Shapiro, Dan Silverman and Steven Tadelis

21024: Taxation and the International Mobility of Inventors

Ufuk Akcigit, Salomé Baslandze and Stefanie Stantcheva

21023: Correlation, Consumption, Confusion, or Constraints: Why do Poor Children Perform so Poorly?

Elizabeth Caucutt, Lance Lochner and Youngmin Park

21022: Accounting for the Rise in C-sections: Evidence from Population Level Data

Sara Allin, Michael Baker, Maripier Isabelle and Mark Stabile

21021: New Evidence on the Impact of Financial Crises in Advanced Countries

Christina Romer and David Romer

21020: The In-State Equity Bias of State Pension Plans

Jeffrey Brown, Joshua M. Pollet and Scott Weisbenner

21019: Precautionary Strategies and Household Saving

Joshua Aizenman, Eduardo Cavallo and Ilan Noy

21018: Toward an Understanding of Economic Growth in Africa: A Re-Interpretation of the Lewis Model

Xinshen Diao and Margaret McMillan

21017: Capital Flows and Domestic and International Order: Trilemmas from Macroeconomics to Political Economy and International Relations

Michael Bordo and Harold James

21016: The CAPM Strikes Back? An Investment Model with Disasters

Hang Bai, Kewei Hou, Howard Kung and Lu Zhang

21015: The Insurance Value of Medical Innovation

Darius Lakdawalla, Anup Malani and Julian Reif

21014: Treasure Hunt: Social Learning in the Field

Markus Mobius, Tuan Phan and Adam Szeidl

21013: Effects of Peer Counseling to Support Breastfeeding: Assessing the External Validity of a Randomized Field Experiment

Onur Altindag, Ted Joyce and Julie A. Reeder

21012: Preventives Versus Treatments

Michael Kremer and Christopher Snyder

21011: Poisedness and Propagation: Organizational Emergence and the Transformation of Civic Order in 19th-Century New York City

Victoria Johnson and Walter W. Powell

21010: TFP, News, and "Sentiments:" The International Transmission of Business Cycles

Andrei Levchenko and Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

21009: Reference Points and Redistributive Preferences: Experimental Evidence

Jimmy Charité, Raymond Fisman and Ilyana Kuziemko

21008: Intra-Industry Trade with Bertrand and Cournot Oligopoly: The Role of Endogenous Horizontal Product Differentiation

James Brander and Barbara Spencer

21007: Regional Redistribution Through the U.S. Mortgage Market

Erik Hurst, Benjamin Keys, Amit Seru and Joseph Vavra

21006: Grasp the Large, Let Go of the Small: The Transformation of the State Sector in China

Chang-Tai Hsieh and Zheng Song

21005: Short-term, Long-term, and Continuing Contracts

Maija Halonen-Akatwijuka and Oliver Hart

21004: The Marriage Market, Labor Supply and Education Choice

Pierre Chiappori, Monica Costa Dias and Costas Meghir

21003: Capital Tax Reform and the Real Economy: The Effects of the 2003 Dividend Tax Cut

Danny Yagan

21002: The Efficiency of Slacking Off: Evidence from the Emergency Department

David C. Chan, Jr.

21001: Social Learning and Selective Attention

Andrew Caplin, John Leahy and Filip Matejka

21000: A Retrospective Look at Rescuing and Restructuring General Motors and Chrysler

Austan Goolsbee and Alan Krueger

20999: Expecting the Unexpected: Emissions Uncertainty and Environmental Market Design

Severin Borenstein, James Bushnell, Frank A. Wolak and Matthew Zaragoza-Watkins

20998: Retrospective and Prospective Benefit-Cost Analysis of US Anti-Smoking Policies

Lawrence Jin, Donald Kenkel, Feng Liu and Hua Wang

20997: How Does Health Promotion Work? Evidence From The Dirty Business of Eliminating Open Defecation

Paul Gertler, Manisha Shah, María Laura Alzúa, Lisa Cameron, Sebastian Martinez and Sumeet Patil

20996: Access to Four-Year Public Colleges and Degree Completion

Joshua Goodman, Michael Hurwitz and Jonathan Smith

20995: An Empirical Analysis of Primary and Secondary Pharmaceutical Patents in Chile

María José Abud Sittler, Bronwyn Hall and Christian Helmers

20994: Wealth and Volatility

Jonathan Heathcote and Fabrizio Perri

20993: Testing for Changes in the SES-Mortality Gradient When the Distribution of Education Changes Too

Thomas Goldring, Fabian Lange and Seth Richards-Shubik

20992: The Impact of Entrepreneurial Risk Aversion on Wages in General Equilibrium

Ying Feng and James Rauch

20991: Tips and Tells from Managers: How Analysts and the Market Read Between the Lines of Conference Calls

Marina Druz, Alexander Wagner and Richard Zeckhauser

20990: Capitalization of Charter Schools into Residential Property Values

Scott Imberman, Michael Naretta and Margaret O’Rourke

20989: Culture, Ethnicity and Diversity

Klaus Desmet, Ignacio Ortuño-Ortín and Romain Wacziarg

20988: Power to Choose? An Analysis of Consumer Inertia in the Residential Electricity Market

Ali Hortacsu, Seyed Ali Madanizadeh and Steven Puller

20987: Pick Your Poison: The Choices and Consequences of Policy Responses to Crises

Kristin Forbes and Michael Klein

20986: Asymmetric Information and Remittances: Evidence from Matched Administrative Data

Thomas Joseph, Yaw Nyarko and Shing-Yi Wang

20985: How Can a Q-Theoretic Model Price Momentum?

Robert Novy-Marx

20984: Fundamentally, Momentum is Fundamental Momentum

Robert Novy-Marx

20983: Teachers’ Pay for Performance in the Long-Run: Effects on Students’ Educational and Labor Market Outcomes in Adulthood

Victor Lavy

20982: Estimating Individual Ambiguity Aversion: A Simple Approach

Uri Gneezy, Alex Imas and John List

20981: Regulating Innovation with Uncertain Quality: Information, Risk, and Access in Medical Devices

Matthew Grennan and Robert Town

20980: Anticipation, Tax Avoidance, and the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand

John Coglianese, Lucas Davis, Lutz Kilian and James Stock

20979: Optimal Contracting, Corporate Finance, and Valuation with Inalienable Human Capital

Patrick Bolton, Neng Wang and Jinqiang Yang

20978: Beyond Random Assignment: Credible Inference of Causal Effects in Dynamic Economies

Christopher A. Hennessy and Ilya Strebulaev

20977: Old and Young Politicians

Alberto Alesina, Ugo antonio Troiano and Traviss Cassidy

20976: Prescription Drug Use under Medicare Part D: A Linear Model of Nonlinear Budget Sets

Jason Abaluck, Jonathan Gruber and Ashley Swanson

20975: A Quantitative Analysis of Subsidy Competition in the U.S

Ralph Ossa

20974: Hoard Behavior and Commodity Bubbles

Harrison Hong, Aureo de Paula and Vishal Singh

20973: Long-Term-Care Utility and Late-in-Life Saving

John Ameriks, Joseph Briggs, Andrew Caplin, Matthew Shapiro and Christopher Tonetti

20972: The Wealth of Wealthholders

John Ameriks, Andrew Caplin, Minjoon Lee, Matthew Shapiro and Christopher Tonetti

20971: The Catch-22 of External Validity in the Context of Constraints to Firm Growth

Greg Fischer and Dean Karlan

20970: Capital Control Measures: A New Dataset

Andrés Fernández Martin, Michael Klein, Alessandro Rebucci, Martin Schindler and Martín Uribe

20969: Individual Time Preferences and Energy Efficiency

Richard Newell and Juha Siikamäki

20968: The Dynamics of Financially Constrained Arbitrage

Denis Gromb and Dimitri Vayanos

20967: Corporate Culture, Societal Culture, and Institutions

Luigi Guiso, Paola Sapienza and Luigi Zingales

20966: Endogenous Horizontal Product Differentiation under Bertrand and Cournot Competition: Revisiting the Bertrand Paradox

James Brander and Barbara Spencer

20965: Estimating the Production Function for Human Capital: Results from a Randomized Control Trial in Colombia

Orazio Attanasio, Sarah Cattan, Emla Fitzsimons, Costas Meghir and Marta Rubio-Codina

20964: Sovereign Default, Debt Restructuring, and Recovery Rates: Was the Argentinean “Haircut” Excessive?

Sebastian Edwards

20963: Systemic Risk and the Macroeconomy: An Empirical Evaluation

Stefano Giglio, Bryan T. Kelly and Seth Pruitt

20962: Affirmative Action and the Quality-Fit Tradeoff

Peter Arcidiacono and Michael Lovenheim

20961: Analyzing the Labor Market Outcomes of Occupational Licensing

Maury Gittleman, Mark A. Klee and Morris M. Kleiner

20960: The Great Recession, Retirement and Related Outcomes

Alan Gustman, Thomas L. Steinmeier and Nahid Tabatabai

20959: Economic Behavior, Market Signals, and Urban Ecology

Joshua K. Abbott, Henry Klaiber and V. Smith

20958: Outside Options, Coercion, and Wages: Removing the Sugar Coating

Christian Dippel, Avner Greif and Daniel Trefler

20957: The Real Value of China's Stock Market

Jennifer Carpenter, Fangzhou Lu and Robert F. Whitelaw

20956: Unshrouding Effects on Demand for a Costly Add-on: Evidence from Bank Overdrafts in Turkey

Sule Alan, Mehmet Cemalcılar, Dean Karlan and Jonathan Zinman

20955: Demand Estimation with Machine Learning and Model Combination

Patrick Bajari, Denis Nekipelov, Stephen Ryan and Miaoyu Yang

20954: Nowcasting and Placecasting Entrepreneurial Quality and Performance

Jorge Guzman and Scott Stern

20953: Who Is Coming to the Artefactual Field Experiment? Participation Bias among Chinese Rural Migrants

Paul Frijters, Tao Sherry Kong and Elaine Liu

20952: International Coordination of Central Bank Policy

Charles Engel

20951: Macroprudential Policy in a World of High Capital Mobility: Policy Implications from an Academic Perspective

Charles Engel

20950: Lifecycle Effects of a Recession on Health Behaviors: Boom, Bust, and Recovery in Iceland

Tinna Laufey Ásgeirsdóttir, Hope Corman, Kelly Noonan and Nancy Reichman

20949: Decision-Making Approaches and the Propensity to Default: Evidence and Implications

Jeffrey Brown, Anne M. Farrell and Scott Weisbenner

20948: Money Earlier or Later? Simple Heuristics Explain Intertemporal Choices Better than Delay Discounting

Keith Ericson, John Myles White, David Laibson and Jonathan D. Cohen

20947: Fraudulent Income Overstatement on Mortgage Applications during the Credit Expansion of 2002 to 2005

Atif Mian and Amir Sufi

20946: Facilitating Savings for Agriculture: Field Experimental Evidence from Malawi

Lasse Brune, Xavier Gine, Jessica Goldberg and Dean Yang