NBER Working Papers

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30262: Confidence, Self-Selection and Bias in the Aggregate

Benjamin Enke, Thomas Graeber and Ryan Oprea

30261: New Evidence on the Demand for Advice within Retirement Plans

Jonathan Reuter and David P. Richardson

30260: Expectations and the Rate of Inflation

Iván Werning

30259: Ancestral Livelihoods and Moral Universalism: Evidence from Transhumant Pastoralist Societies

Etienne Le Rossignol and Sara Lowes

30258: The Real State: Inside the Congo's Traffic Police Agency

Raúl Sanchez de la Sierra, Kristof Titeca, Haoyang (Stan) Xie, Albert Malukisa Nkuku and Aimable Amani Lameke

30257: Aftermarket Frictions and the Cost of Off-Platform Options in Centralized Assignment Mechanisms

Adam Kapor, Mohit Karnani and Christopher Neilson

30256: A Luna-tic Stablecoin Crash

Harald Uhlig

30255: Misinformation, Consumer Risk Perceptions, and Markets: The Impact of an Information Shock on Vaping and Smoking Cessation

Lawrence Jin, Donald Kenkel, Michael Lovenheim, Alan Mathios and Hua Wang

30254: Financing Health Care Delivery

Jonathan Gruber

30253: A Portfolio Approach to Global Imbalances

Zhengyang Jiang, Robert Richmond and Tony Zhang

30252: Racial Inequality in the U.S. Unemployment Insurance System

Daphné Skandalis, Ioana Marinescu and Maxim N. Massenkoff

30251: The Spanish Mission Legacy on Native American Reservations

Lee Alston, Marie Duggan and Julio Alberto Ramos Pastrana

30250: Expecting Floods: Firm Entry, Employment, and Aggregate Implications

Ruixue Jia, Xiao Ma and Victoria Wenxin Xie

30249: Partisan Entrepreneurship

Joseph Engelberg, Jorge Guzman, Runjing Lu and William Mullins

30248: Another Day, Another Visit: Impact of Arkansas's Mandatory Waiting Period for Women Seeking an Abortion by Demographic Groups

Onur Altindag and Ted Joyce

30247: A New Way of Forecasting Recessions

Edward Leamer

30246: Short-Term Tax Cuts, Long-Term Stimulus

James Cloyne, Joseba Martinez, Haroon Mumtaz and Paolo Surico

30245: Malleability of Alcohol Consumption: Evidence from Migrants

Marit Hinnosaar and Elaine Liu

30244: Trade, Leakage, and the Design of a Carbon Tax

David Weisbach, Samuel Kortum, Michael Wang and Yujia Yao

30243: Looming Large or Seeming Small? Attitudes Towards Losses in a Representative Sample

Jonathan Chapman, Erik Snowberg, Stephanie W. Wang and Colin Camerer

30242: Ghosting the Tax Authority: Fake Firms and Tax Fraud

Paul Carrillo, Dave Donaldson, Dina Pomeranz and Monica Singhal

30241: Operating Hedge and Gross Profitability Premium

Leonid Kogan, Jun Li and Harold Zhang

30240: Global Supply Chain Pressures, International Trade, and Inflation

Julian di Giovanni, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Álvaro Silva and Muhammed A. Yildirim

30239: Minimum Wages and Labor Markets in the Twin Cities

Loukas Karabarbounis, Jeremy Lise and Anusha Nath

30238: Will the Developing World’s Growing Middle Class Support Low Carbon Policies?

Matthew Kahn and Somik Lall

30237: Intergenerational Transmission of Health at Birth: Fathers Matter Too!

Osea Giuntella, Giulia La Mattina and Climent Quintana-Domeque

30236: When Is Discrimination Unfair?

Peter Kuhn and Trevor T. Osaki

30235: Data and Welfare in Credit Markets

Mark Jansen, Fabian Nagel, Constantine Yannelis and Anthony Lee Zhang

30234: Common Fund Flows: Flow Hedging and Factor Pricing

Winston Dou, Leonid Kogan and Wei Wu

30233: Combating Cross-Border Externalities

Shiyi Chen, Joshua Graff Zivin, Huanhuan Wang and Jiaxin Xiong

30232: Attrition from Administrative Data: Problems and Solutions with an Application to Postsecondary Education

Andrew Foote and Kevin Stange

30231: The Value of Pharmacy Benefit Management

Casey Mulligan

30230: Acquisitions, Management, and Efficiency in Rwanda's Coffee Industry

Rocco Macchiavello and Ameet Morjaria

30229: Real-Time Inequality

Thomas Blanchet, Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman

30228: Producing Health: Measuring Value Added of Nursing Homes

Liran Einav, Amy Finkelstein and Neale Mahoney

30227: STEM Summer Programs for Underrepresented Youth Increase STEM Degrees

Sarah Cohodes, Helen Ho and Silvia C. Robles

30226: Restoring Confidence in Troubled Financial Institutions After a Financial Crisis

Charles Calomiris and Mark Carlson

30225: Trade Policy and Global Sourcing: An Efficiency Rationale for Tariff Escalation

Pol Antras, Teresa Fort, Agustín Gutiérrez and Felix Tintelnot

30224: Training, Communications Patterns, and Spillovers Inside Organizations

Miguel Espinosa and Christopher T. Stanton

30223: Foundation of the Small Open Economy Model with Product Differentiation

Lorenzo Caliendo and Robert Feenstra

30222: Intermediary Balance Sheets and the Treasury Yield Curve

Wenxin Du, Benjamin Hebert and Wenhao Li

30221: The Shadow of the Neolithic Revolution on Life Expectancy: A Double-Edged Sword

Raphael Franck, Oded Galor, Omer Moav and Ömer Özak

30220: Pareto Improvements in the Contest for College Admissions

Kala Krishna, Sergey Lychagin, Wojciech Olszewski, Ron Siegel and Chloe Tergiman

30219: Screening Adaptive Cartels

Juan Ortner, Sylvain Chassang, Kei Kawai and Jun Nakabayashi

30218: Using Divide-and-Conquer to Improve Tax Collection

Samuel Kapon, Lucia Del Carpio and Sylvain Chassang

30217: The Virtue of Complexity in Return Prediction

Bryan T. Kelly, Semyon Malamud and Kangying Zhou

30216: Information Spillovers and Sovereign Debt: Theory Meets the Eurozone Crisis

Harold Cole, Daniel Neuhann and Guillermo Ordonez

30215: The Privacy Elasticity of Behavior: Conceptualization and Application

Inbal Dekel, Rachel Cummings, Ori Heffetz and Katrina Ligett

30214: Polarization and Public Policy: Political Adverse Selection under Obamacare

Leonardo Bursztyn, Jonathan Kolstad, Aakaash Rao, Pietro Tebaldi and Noam Yuchtman

30213: Can Fiscal Externalities Be Internalized?

Erzo Luttmer

30212: Are Effective Teachers for Students with Disabilities Effective Teachers for All?

W. Jesse Wood, Ijun Lai, Neil R. Filosa, Scott Imberman, Nathan D. Jones and Katharine O. Strunk

30211: u* = √uv

Pascal Michaillat and Emmanuel Saez

30210: Fed Implied Market Prices and Risk Premia

Charles Calomiris, Joanna Harris, Harry Mamaysky and Cristina Tessari

30209: Officer-Involved: The Media Language of Police Killings

Jonathan Moreno-Medina, Aurelie Ouss, Patrick Bayer and Bocar A. Ba

30208: Waivers for the Public Service Loan Forgiveness Program: Who Would Benefit from Takeup?

Diego A. Briones, Nathaniel Ruby and Sarah Turner

30207: Local Projections vs. VARs: Lessons From Thousands of DGPs

Dake Li, Mikkel Plagborg-Moller and Christian Wolf

30206: How Did Federal Aid to States and Localities Affect Testing and Vaccine Delivery?

Jeffrey Clemens, Philip G. Hoxie, John Kearns and Stan Veuger

30205: The Quality of Financial Advice: What Influences Client Recommendations?

Philippe d'Astous, Irina Gemmo and Pierre-Carl Michaud

30204: Persecution and Migrant Self-Selection: Evidence from the Collapse of the Communist Bloc

Ran Abramitzky, Travis Baseler and Isabelle Sin

30203: Shareholder Power and the Decline of Labor

Antonio Falato, Hyunseob Kim and Till von Wachter

30202: Economic vs. Epidemiological Approaches to Measuring the Human Capital Impacts of Infectious Disease Elimination

Caroline Chuard, Hannes Schwandt, Alexander D. Becker and Masahiko Haraguchi

30201: Effects of Restrictive Abortion Legislation on Cohort Mortality Evidence from 19th Century Law Variation

Joanna Lahey and Marianne Wanamaker

30200: Dependent Coverage and Parental "Job Lock": Evidence from the Affordable Care Act

Hannah Bae, Katherine Meckel and Maggie Shi

30199: Optimal Income Taxation

Louis Kaplow

30198: Decomposing Trends in U.S. Air Pollution Disparities from Electricity

Danae Hernandez-Cortes, Kyle Meng and Paige E. Weber

30197: The Shift to Remote Work Lessens Wage-Growth Pressures

Jose Maria Barrero, Nicholas Bloom, Steven Davis, Brent Meyer and Emil Mihaylov

30196: Is GDP Becoming Obsolete? The “Beyond GDP” Debate

Charles R. Hulten and Leonard Nakamura

30195: Crash Narratives

William Goetzmann, Dasol Kim and Robert Shiller

30194: An Evaluation of a National Program to Reduce Student Absenteeism in High School

Michael Baker, Nina Drange and Hege Marie Gjefsen

30193: Price Setting with Strategic Complementarities as a Mean Field Game

Fernando E. Alvarez, Francesco Lippi and Takis Souganidis

30192: Expanding Capacity for Vaccines Against Covid-19 and Future Pandemics: A Review of Economic Issues

Susan Athey, Juan Castillo, Esha Chaudhuri, Michael Kremer, Alexandre Simoes Gomes and Christopher Snyder

30191: On the Role of Learning, Human Capital, and Performance Incentives for Wages

Braz Camargo, Fabian Lange and Elena Pastorino

30190: Why Does Right-to-Carry Cause Violent Crime to Increase?

John Donohue, Samuel V. Cai, Matthew V. Bondy and Philip J Cook

30189: Mechanism Design Approaches to Blockchain Consensus

Joshua Gans and Richard Holden

30188: Globalization, Trade Imbalances and Inequality

Rafael Dix-Carneiro and Sharon Traiberman

30187: Aggregate Lapsation Risk

Ralph Koijen, Hae Kang Lee and Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

30186: The Effect of Labor Market Liberalization on Political Behavior and Free Market Norms

Ran Abramitzky, Netanel Ben-Porath, Shahar Lahad, Victor Lavy and Michal Palgi

30185: Excess Savings and Twin Deficits: The Transmission of Fiscal Stimulus in Open Economies

Rishabh Aggarwal, Adrien Auclert, Matthew Rognlie and Ludwig Straub

30184: Labor Supply and the Pension-Contribution Link

Eric French, Attila S. Lindner, Cormac O'Dea and Tom A. Zawisza

30183: The Political Polarization of Corporate America

Vyacheslav Fos, Elisabeth Kempf and Margarita Tsoutsoura

30182: Politics At Work

Emanuele Colonnelli, Valdemar Pinho Neto and Edoardo Teso

30181: Uncharted Waters: Effects of Maritime Emission Regulation

Jamie Hansen-Lewis and Michelle M. Marcus

30180: Industrial Robots, Workers' Safety, and Health

Rania Gihleb, Osea Giuntella, Luca Stella and Tianyi Wang

30179: Failing Just Fine: Assessing Careers of Venture Capital-backed Entrepreneurs Via a Non-Wage Measure

Natee Amornsiripanitch, Paul Gompers, George Hu, Will Levinson and Vladimir Mukharlyamov

30178: Labor Market Effects of Short-Cycle Higher Education Programs: Lessons from Colombia

Maria Marta Ferreyra, Camila Galindo and Sergio S. Urzúa

30177: Prediction Machines, Insurance, and Protection: An Alternative Perspective on AI's Role in Production

Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans and Avi Goldfarb

30176: The Geography of Child Penalties and Gender Norms: A Pseudo-Event Study Approach

Henrik Kleven

30175: Determinants of Health Insurance Enrollment and Health Expenditure in Ghana: An Empirical Analysis

Kwame Adjei-Mantey and Charles Horioka

30174: The Quality of Lower-Track Education: Evidence from Britain

Damon Clark

30173: A Shot at Economic Prosperity: Long-term Effects of India’s Childhood Immunization Program on Earnings and Consumption Expenditure

Amit Summan, Arindam Nandi and David Bloom

30172: Preparing for the (Non-Existent?) Future of Work

Anton Korinek and Megan Juelfs

30171: Age and the labor market for Hispanics in the United States

Joanna Lahey and Roberto Mosquera

30170: Machine Learning Can Predict Shooting Victimization Well Enough to Help Prevent It

Sara B. Heller, Benjamin Jakubowski, Zubin Jelveh and Max Kapustin

30169: Getting to the Core: Inflation Risks Within and Across Asset Classes

Xiang Fang, Yang Liu and Nikolai Roussanov

30168: Was Pandemic Fiscal Relief Effective Fiscal Stimulus? Evidence from Aid to State and Local Governments

Jeffrey Clemens, Philip G. Hoxie and Stan Veuger

30167: Surveillance of Repression: Theory and Implementation

Veli Andirin, Yusuf Neggers, Mehdi Shadmehr and Jesse Shapiro

30166: Fighting Communism Supporting Collusion

Sebastian Galiani, Jose Manuel Paz y Miño and Gustavo Torrens

30165: The Fertility Consequences of Air Pollution in China

Xuwen Gao, Ran Song and Christopher Timmins

30164: Public Pension Reforms and Retirement Decisions: Narrative Evidence and Aggregate Implications

Huixin Bi and Sarah Zubairy

30163: The Size and Census Coverage of the U.S. Homeless Population

Bruce Meyer, Angela Wyse and Kevin Corinth