NBER Working Papers

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29711: Expectations Formation and Forward Information

Nathan Goldstein and Yuriy Gorodnichenko

29710: Making Money

Gary Gorton, Chase Ross and Sharon Y. Ross

29709: When is TSLS Actually LATE?

Christine Blandhol, John Bonney, Magne Mogstad and Alexander Torgovitsky

29708: Addressing Endogeneity Using a Two-stage Copula Generated Regressor Approach

Fan Yang, Yi Qian and Hui Xie

29707: A Goldilocks Theory of Fiscal Deficits

Atif Mian, Ludwig Straub and Amir Sufi

29706: Have Recreational Marijuana Laws Undermined Public Health Progress on Adult Tobacco Use?

Dhaval Dave, Yang Liang, Michael Pesko, Serena Phillips and Joseph J. Sabia

29705: Why Are Returns to Private Business Wealth So Dispersed?

Corina Boar, Denis Gorea and Virgiliu Midrigan

29704: Idiosyncratic Income Risk and Aggregate Fluctuations

Davide Debortoli and Jordi Galí

29703: Should We Have Automatic Triggers for Unemployment Benefit Duration And How Costly Would They Be?

Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, Peter Ganong and Jonathan Gruber

29702: Incentive-Compatible Critical Values

Adam McCloskey and Pascal Michaillat

29701: Does Quitting Smoking Increase Obesity? Evidence From Accounting for Misreporting

Rusty Tchernis, Keith Teltser and Arjun Teotia

29700: Ageing and Welfare-State Policy: Macroeconomic Perspective

Assaf Razin and Alexander Horst Schwemmer

29699: Currency Undervaluation and Comparative Advantage

Paul Bergin

29698: Labor Market Fluidity and Human Capital Accumulation

Niklas Engbom

29697: Firm Pay Dynamics

Niklas Engbom, Christian Moser and Jan Sauermann

29696: Earnings Inequality and Dynamics in the Presence of Informality: The Case of Brazil

Niklas Engbom, Gustavo Gonzaga, Christian Moser and Roberta Olivieri

29695: The Social Consequences of Traditional Religion in Contemporary Africa

Etienne Le Rossignol, Sara Lowes and Nathan Nunn

29694: Education and Income Gradients in Longevity: The Role of Policy

Adriana Lleras-Muney

29693: The (Un)Importance of Inheritance

Sandra Black, Paul Devereux, Fanny Landaud and Kjell G Salvanes

29692: Civilian alternatives to policing: Evidence from Medellín’s community problem-solving intervention Operación Convivencia

Christopher Blattman, Gustavo Duncan, Benjamin Lessing and Santiago Tobon

29691: Two-Way Fixed Effects and Differences-in-Differences with Heterogeneous Treatment Effects: A Survey

Clément de Chaisemartin and Xavier D'Haultfoeuille

29690: When Do Informational Interventions Work? Experimental Evidence from New York City High School Choice

Sarah Cohodes, Sean Corcoran, Jennifer Jennings and Carolyn Sattin-Bajaj

29689: Long-Term Care Insurance Financing Using Home Equity Release: Evidence from an Online Experimental Survey

Katja Hanewald, Hazel Bateman, Hanming Fang and Tin Long Ho

29688: Understanding the Resurgence of the SOEs in China: Evidence from the Real Estate Sector

Hanming Fang, Jing Wu, Rongjie Zhang and Li-An Zhou

29687: Foreign Direct Investment under Uncertainty: Evidence from a Large Panel of Countries

Caroline Jardet, Cristina Jude and Menzie Chinn

29686: Eliciting People's First-Order Concerns: Text Analysis of Open-Ended Survey Questions

Beatrice Ferrario and Stefanie Stantcheva

29685: Firm-to-Firm Trade: Imports, Exports, and the Labor Market

Jonathan Eaton, Samuel Kortum and Francis Kramarz

29684: Two-Sided Search in International Markets

Jonathan Eaton, David Jinkins, James Tybout and Yi Xu

29683: Who Set Your Wage?

David Card

29682: Vaccine Allocation Priorities Using Disease Surveillance and Economic Data

Anup Malani, Satej Soman, Sabareesh Ramachandran, Alice Chen and Darius Lakdawalla

29681: Estimating Candidate Valence

Kei Kawai and Takeaki Sunada

29680: Liquidity, Liquidity Everywhere, Not a Drop to Use – Why Flooding Banks with Central Bank Reserves May Not Expand Liquidity

Viral Acharya and Raghuram Rajan

29679: Understanding the Ownership Structure of Corporate Bonds

Ralph Koijen and Motohiro Yogo

29678: Segregation and the Initial Provision of Water in the United States

Brian Beach, John Parman and Martin H. Saavedra

29677: The Second World War, Inequality and the Social Contract in Britain

Leander Heldring, James Robinson and Parker J. Whitfill

29676: Robots and Firm Investment

Efraim Benmelech and Michal Zator

29675: Slowing Women's Labor Force Participation: The Role of Income Inequality

Stefania Albanesi and María José Prados

29674: Designing Quality Certificates: Insights from eBay

Xiang Hui, Ginger Zhe Jin and Meng Liu

29673: Average Inflation Targeting: Time Inconsistency and Ambiguous Communication

Chengcheng Jia and Jing Cynthia Wu

29672: Trade Policy Uncertainty

Kyle Handley and Nuno Limão

29671: Understanding Rural Households’ Time Use in a Developing Setting: Validating a Low-Cost Time Use Module

Erica M. Field, Rohini Pande, Natalia Rigol, Simone G. Schaner, Elena M. Stacy and Charity M. Troyer Moore

29670: Spillovers at the Extremes: The Macroprudential Stance and Vulnerability to the Global Financial Cycle

Anusha Chari, Karlye Dilts Stedman and Kristin Forbes

29669: The $800 Billion Paycheck Protection Program: Where Did the Money Go and Why Did it Go There?

David Autor, David Cho, Leland Crane, Mita Goldar, Byron Lutz, Joshua K. Montes, William Peterman, David D. Ratner, Daniel Villar Vallenas and Ahu Yildirmaz

29668: Public School Access or Stay-at-Home Partner: Factors Mitigating the Adverse Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Academic Parents

Tatyana Deryugina, Olga Shurchkov and Jenna E. Stearns

29667: Political Constraints and Sovereign Default

Marina Azzimonti and Nirvana Mitra

29666: Land Security and Mobility Frictions

Tasso Adamopoulos, Loren Brandt, Chaoran Chen, Diego Restuccia and Xiaoyun Wei

29665: Occupational Licensing and the Healthcare Labor Market

Marcus Dillender, Anthony T. Lo Sasso, Brian J. Phelan and Michael R. Richards

29664: A Simple Mapping from MPCs to MPXs

David Laibson, Peter Maxted and Benjamin Moll

29663: The Agglomeration of Urban Amenities: Evidence from Milan Restaurants

Marco Leonardi and Enrico Moretti

29662: Minimum Wages, Efficiency and Welfare

David Berger, Kyle F. Herkenhoff and Simon Mongey

29661: Health Insurance for Whom? The ‘Spill-up’ Effects of Children’s Health Insurance on Mothers

Daniel S. Grossman, Daniel Tello-Trillo and Barton Willage

29660: Schools, Job Flexibility, and Married Women's Labor Supply

Benjamin Hansen, Joseph J. Sabia and Jessamyn Schaller

29659: Effects of Daily School and Care Disruptions During the COVID-19 Pandemic on Child Mental Health

Anna Gassman-Pines, Elizabeth Ananat, John Fitz-Henley and Jane Leer

29658: The Variability and Volatility of Sleep: An ARCHetypal Behavior

Daniel S. Hamermesh and Gerard Pfann

29657: Inequalities in the Times of a Pandemic

Stefanie Stantcheva

29656: Robustness Measures for Welfare Analysis

Zi Yang Kang and Shoshana Vasserman

29655: A New Era of Midnight Mergers: Antitrust Risk and Investor Disclosures

John Barrios and Thomas G. Wollmann

29654: Caught In The Middle: The Bias Against Startup Innovation With Technical And Commercial Challenges

Ashish Arora, Andrea Fosfuri and Thomas Roende

29653: Planning for the “Expected Unexpected”: Work and Retirement in the U.S. After the COVID-19 Pandemic Shock

Richard Freeman

29652: What Leads to Measurement Errors? Evidence from Reports of Program Participation in Three Surveys

Pablo Celhay, Bruce Meyer and Nikolas Mittag

29651: Inclusive Monetary Policy: How Tight Labor Markets Facilitate Broad-Based Employment Growth

Nittai Bergman, Benjamin Born, David A. Matsa and Michael Weber

29650: How Distortive are Turnover Taxes? Evidence from Replacing Turnover Tax with VAT

Jing Xing, Katarzyna Bilicka, Xipei Hou and Sepideh Raei

29649: A Cross-Country Comparison of Old-Age Financial Readiness in Asian Countries versus the United States: The Case of Japan and the Republic of Korea

Isaac Ehrlich and Yong Yin

29648: Household Spending Responses to the Economic Impact Payments of 2020: Evidence from the Consumer Expenditure Survey

Jonathan Parker, Jake Schild, Laura Erhard and David Johnson

29647: The Moral Preferences of Investors: Experimental Evidence

Jean-François Bonnefon, Augustin Landier, Parinitha R. Sastry and David Thesmar

29646: Large Firms, Consumer Heterogeneity and the Rising Share of Profits

Robert Feenstra, Luca Macedoni and Mingzhi (Jimmy) Xu

29645: Urban Mobility and the Experienced Isolation of Students

Cody Cook, Lindsey Currier and Edward Glaeser

29644: Technology and Resilience

Diego Comin, Marcio Cruz, Xavier Cirera, Kyung Min Lee and Jesica Torres

29643: Agrarian Origins of Individualism and Collectivism

Martin Fiszbein, Yeonha Jung and Dietrich Vollrath

29642: How Do Top Acquirers Compare in Technology Mergers? New Evidence from an S&P Taxonomy

Ginger Zhe Jin, Mario Leccese and Liad Wagman

29641: The Impact of U.S. School Closures on Labor Market Outcomes during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Kairon Shayne D. Garcia and Benjamin Cowan

29640: The Expected, Perceived, and Realized Inflation of U.S. Households before and during the COVID19 Pandemic

Michael Weber, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Olivier Coibion

29639: Limited Supply and Lagging Enrollment: Production Technologies and Enrollment Changes at Community Colleges during the Pandemic

Diane Schanzenbach and Sarah Turner

29638: Financial Intermediaries and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from a High-Frequency Identification

Pablo Ottonello and Wenting Song

29637: Bounds, Benefits, and Bad Air: Welfare Impacts of Pollution Alerts

Michael Anderson, Minwoo Hyun and Jaecheol Lee

29636: Information versus Investment

Stephen Terry, Toni Whited and Anastasia Zakolyukina

29635: On the Aggregation of Probability Assessments: Regularized Mixtures of Predictive Densities for Eurozone Inflation and Real Interest Rates

Francis Diebold, Minchul Shin and Boyuan Zhang

29634: Cognitive Decline, Limited Awareness, Imperfect Agency, and Financial Well-being

John Ameriks, Andrew Caplin, Minjoon Lee, Matthew D. Shapiro and Christopher Tonetti

29633: Currency Carry Trade by Trucks: The Curious Case of China's Massive Imports from Itself

Xuepeng Liu, Heiwai Tang, Zhi Wang and Shang-Jin Wei

29632: Intermediation via Credit Chains

Zhiguo He and Jian Li

29631: Clubs and Networks in Economics Reviewing

Scott Carrell, David Figlio and Lester Lusher

29630: Nonprofits in Good Times and Bad Times

Christine L. Exley, Nils H. Lehr and Stephen Terry

29629: Global Innovation and Knowledge Diffusion

Nelson Lind and Natalia Ramondo

29628: Macroeconomic Research, Present and Past

Philip Glandon, Kenneth Kuttner, Sandeep Mazumder and Caleb Stroup

29627: Revealing Corruption: Firm and Worker Level Evidence from Brazil

Emanuele Colonnelli, Spyridon Lagaras, Jacopo Ponticelli, Mounu Prem and Margarita Tsoutsoura

29626: Debt as Safe Asset

Markus Brunnermeier, Sebastian A. Merkel and Yuliy Sannikov

29625: Using Bid Rotation and Incumbency to Detect Collusion: A Regression Discontinuity Approach

Kei Kawai, Jun Nakabayashi, Juan Ortner and Sylvain Chassang

29624: The Political Economy of Anti-Bribery Enforcement

Lauren Cohen and Bo Li

29623: Worker Beliefs About Outside Options

Simon Jäger, Christopher Roth, Nina Roussille and Benjamin Schoefer

29622: The Marginal Cost of Mortality Risk Reduction: Evidence from Housing Markets

Kelly Bishop, Nicolai Kuminoff, Sophie Mathes and Alvin Murphy

29621: Mandated vs. Voluntary Adaptation to Natural Disasters: The Case of U.S. Wildfires

Patrick Baylis and Judson Boomhower

29620: Estimating the Effects of Milk Inspections on Infant and Child Mortality, 1880-1910

D. Mark Anderson, Kerwin Kofi Charles, Michael McKelligott and Daniel Rees

29619: Fiscal Policy in a Networked Economy

Joel P. Flynn, Christina Patterson and John Sturm

29618: Vertical Differentiation in Frictional Product Markets

James Albrecht, Guido Menzio and Susan Vroman

29617: The Price of Nails since 1695: A Window into Economic Change

Daniel E. Sichel

29616: Causal Inference from Hypothetical Evaluations

B. Douglas Bernheim, Daniel Björkegren, Jeffrey Naecker and Michael Pollmann

29615: Preemptive Policies and Risk-Off Shocks in Emerging Markets

Mitali Das, Gita Gopinath and Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan

29614: Interest Received by Banks during the Financial Crisis: LIBOR vs Hypothetical SOFR Loans

Urban Jermann

29613: Physician Group Influences on Treatment Intensity and Health: Evidence from Physician Switchers

Joseph J. Doyle and Becky Staiger

29612: Trade, Human Capital, and Income Risk

Liuchun Deng, Pravin Krishna, Mine Zeynep Senses and Jens Stegmaier