Competing Narratives in Action: An Empirical Analysis of Model Adoption Dynamics

Marco Angrisani, Anya Samek and Ricardo Serrano-Padial

No 32242, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: We use a longitudinal dataset measuring beliefs and behaviors to study the dynamics of model – or narrative – adoption during the Covid-19 pandemic. We show that individuals switch beliefs about the effectiveness of preventive behaviors following changes in perceived risk. The adoption of narratives promoting preventive behaviors is procyclical and narrative switching is influenced by exposure to conflicting information. We explain the data using a heterogeneous-agent model of competing narratives in which agents exhibit motivated beliefs. Adopting misspecified narratives increases infection rates, highlighting the importance of promoting accurate beliefs to guide behavior in the presence of novel risks.

JEL-codes: C9 D03 I12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-03
Note: AG EH
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