NBER Working Papers

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23711: Central Bank Digital Currency and the Future of Monetary Policy

Michael Bordo and Andrew Levin

23710: Mostly Harmless Regulation? Electronic Cigarettes, Public Policy and Consumer Welfare

Donald Kenkel, Sida Peng, Michael Pesko and Hua Wang

23709: Can Superstition Create a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy? School Outcomes of Dragon Children of China

Naci Mocan and Han Yu

23708: Mispriced Index Option Portfolios

George Constantinides, Michal Czerwonko and Stylianos Perrakis

23707: Rethinking the Power of Forward Guidance: Lessons from Japan

Mark Gertler

23706: The Time-Varying Price of Financial Intermediation in the Mortgage Market

Andreas Fuster, Stephanie H. Lo and Paul Willen

23705: Real Exchange Rates, Income per Capita, and Sectoral Input Shares

Javier Cravino and Samuel E. Haltenhof

23704: Cyclical Dispersion in Expected Defaults

João Gomes, Marco Grotteria and Jessica Wachter

23703: Engineering Educational Opportunity: Impacts of 1970s and 1980s Policies to Increase the Share of Black College Graduates with Major in Engineering or Computer Science

Catherine J. Weinberger

23702: The Gendered Spillover Effect of Young Children's Health on Human Capital: Evidence from Turkey

Marcella Alsan

23701: Flowers of Evil? Industrial Development and Long-Run Prosperity

Raphael Franck and Oded Galor

23700: Health Insurance and the Boomerang Generation: Did the 2010 ACA Dependent Care Provision affect Geographic Mobility and Living Arrangements among Young Adults?

Pinka Chatterji, Xiangshi Liu and Barış Yörük

23699: How Important is the Global Financial Cycle? Evidence from Capital Flows

Eugenio Cerutti, Stijn Claessens and Andrew Rose

23698: Inside Job or Deep Impact? Using Extramural Citations to Assess Economic Scholarship

Joshua Angrist, Pierre Azoulay, Glenn Ellison, Ryan Hill and Susan Feng Lu

23697: Crime and Violence: Desensitization in Victims to Watching Criminal Events

Rafael Di Tella, Lucia Freira, Ramiro Gálvez, Ernesto Schargrodsky, Diego Shalom and Mariano Sigman

23696: Regulation of Charlatans in High-Skill Professions

Jonathan B. Berk and Jules van Binsbergen

23695: Goods and Factor Market Integration: A Quantitative Assessment of the EU Enlargement

Lorenzo Caliendo, Luca David Opromolla, Fernando Parro and Alessandro Sforza

23694: The Housing Boom and Bust: Model Meets Evidence

Greg Kaplan, Kurt Mitman and Giovanni Violante

23693: Who Moves Up the Job Ladder?

John Haltiwanger, Henry Hyatt and Erika McEntarfer

23692: Prospect Theory and Energy Efficiency

Garth Heutel

23691: Collective Action, White Flight, and the Origins of Formal Segregation Laws

Werner Troesken and Randall Walsh

23690: On the Relationship Between Quality and Productivity: Evidence from China's Accession to the WTO

Haichao Fan, Yao Li and Stephen Yeaple

23689: What Information Drives Asset Prices?

Anisha Ghosh and George Constantinides

23688: The Employment and Output Effects of Short-Time Work in Germany

Russell Cooper, Moritz Meyer and Immo Schott

23687: The Rise of Market Power and the Macroeconomic Implications

Jan De Loecker and Jan Eeckhout

23686: The Political Economy of Transportation Investment

Edward Glaeser and Giacomo Ponzetto

23685: Commodity Connectedness

Francis Diebold, Laura Liu and Kamil Yilmaz

23684: Digital Economics

Avi Goldfarb and Catherine Tucker

23683: Fundamental Errors in the Voting Booth

Edward Glaeser and Giacomo Ponzetto

23682: The Medical Care Costs of Youth Obesity: An Instrumental Variables Approach

Adam Biener, John Cawley and Chad Meyerhoefer

23681: US Multinationals in Puerto Rico and the Repeal of Section 936 Tax Exemption for U.S. Corporations

Zadia Feliciano and Andrew Green

23680: Funding Value Adjustments

Leif Andersen, Darrell Duffie and Yang Song

23679: Nudging Retirement Savings: A Field Experiment on Supplemental Plans

Robert L. Clark, Robert G. Hammond, Melinda Morrill and Christelle Khalaf

23678: Local Protectionism, Market Structure, and Social Welfare: China's Automobile Market

Panle Barwick, Shengmao Cao and Shanjun Li

23677: Who Bears the Economic Costs of Environmental Regulations?

Don Fullerton and Erich Muehlegger

23676: Short and Long Run Uncertainty

Jose Maria Barrero, Nicholas Bloom and Ian Wright

23675: Simulating Business Cash Flow Taxation

Seth Benzell, Laurence Kotlikoff, Guillermo LaGarda and Victor Yifan Ye

23674: On the Dynamics of Community Development

Levon Barseghyan and Stephen Coate

23673: Opportunities and Challenges: Lessons from Analyzing Terabytes of Scanner Data

Serena Ng

23672: Level and Volatility Factors in Macroeconomic Data

Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Serena Ng

23671: Globalization and the Increasing Correlation between Capital Inflows and Outflows

Jonathan Davis and Eric van Wincoop

23670: Fund Tradeoffs

Lubos Pastor, Robert F. Stambaugh and Lucian A. Taylor

23669: Indirect Inference with Importance Sampling: An Application to Women’s Wage Growth

Robert M. Sauer and Christopher R. Taber

23668: Subsidizing Health Insurance for Low-Income Adults: Evidence from Massachusetts

Amy Finkelstein, Nathaniel Hendren and Mark Shepard

23667: People Versus Machines: The Impact of Minimum Wages on Automatable Jobs

Grace Lordan and David Neumark

23666: Macro and Micro Dynamics of Productivity: From Devilish Details to Insights

Lucia Foster, Cheryl Grim, John Haltiwanger and Zoltán Wolf

23665: Shopping for Lower Sales Tax Rates

Scott Baker, Stephanie Johnson and Lorenz Kueng

23664: Debt and Financial Vulnerability on the Verge of Retirement

Annamaria Lusardi, Olivia Mitchell and Noemi Oggero

23663: Systematic Managed Floating

Jeffrey Frankel

23662: Consumer Learning and the Entry of Generic Pharmaceuticals

Neha Bairoliya, Pinar Karaca-Mandic, Jeffrey S. McCullough and Amil Petrin

23661: Unwelcome Guests? The Effects of Refugees on the Educational Outcomes of Incumbent Students

David Figlio and Umut Özek

23660: School Starting Age and Cognitive Development

Elizabeth Dhuey, David Figlio, Krzysztof Karbownik and Jeffrey Roth

23659: Sympathy for the Diligent and the Demand for Workfare

Andres Drenik and Ricardo Perez-Truglia

23658: The Tradeoffs in Leaning Against the Wind

Francois Gourio, Anil Kashyap and Jae Sim

23657: The Emergence of Weak, Despotic and Inclusive States

Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson

23656: The Uptick in Income Segregation: Real Trend or Random Sampling Variance

John Logan, Andrew Foster, Jun Ke and Fan Li

23655: Consumption and Income Inequality in the U.S. Since the 1960s

Bruce Meyer and James X. Sullivan

23654: Which Banks Recover From Large Adverse Shocks?

Emilia Bonaccorsi di Patti and Anil Kashyap

23653: The Structure of State Corporate Taxation and its Impact on State Tax Revenues and Economic Activity

Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato and Owen Zidar

23652: Rationally Inattentive Behavior: Characterizing and Generalizing Shannon Entropy

Andrew Caplin, Mark Dean and John Leahy

23651: Monetary Policy in the Capitals of Capital

Elena Gerko and Helene Rey

23650: Investment-Horizon Spillovers

Alexander M. Chinco and Mao Ye

23649: Valuing Pain using the Subjective Well-being Method

Thorhildur Ólafsdóttir, Tinna Laufey Ásgeirsdóttir and Edward Norton

23648: Survival Ambiguity and Welfare

Frank Caliendo, Aspen Gorry and Sita Slavov

23647: Bargaining Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations

Thorsten Drautzburg, Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde and Pablo Guerron

23646: A Survey of Global Impacts of Climate Change: Replication, Survey Methods, and a Statistical Analysis

William Nordhaus and Andrew Moffat

23645: Addressing the Opioid Epidemic: Is There a Role for Physician Education?

Molly Schnell and Janet Currie

23644: Women, Work, and Family

Francine Blau and Anne Winkler

23643: Foreign Investment and Domestic Productivity: Identifying Knowledge Spillovers and Competition Effects

Christian Fons-Rosen, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Bent E. Sorensen, Carolina Villegas-Sanchez and Vadym Volosovych

23642: The Generic Drug User Fee Amendments: An Economic Perspective

Ernst R. Berndt, Rena Conti and Stephen J. Murphy

23641: Estimating the Value of Higher Education Financial Aid: Evidence from a Field Experiment

Christian Belzil, Arnaud Maurel and Modibo Sidibé

23640: The Landscape of US Generic Prescription Drug Markets, 2004-2016

Ernst R. Berndt, Rena Conti and Stephen J. Murphy

23639: When Demand Increases Cause Shakeouts

Thomas N. Hubbard and Michael J. Mazzeo

23638: Using Goals to Motivate College Students: Theory and Evidence from Field Experiments

Damon Clark, David Gill, Victoria Prowse and Mark Rush

23637: Multi Product Firms, Import Competition, and the Evolution of Firm-product Technical Efficiencies

Emmanuel Dhyne, Amil Petrin, Valerie Smeets and Frédéric Warzynski

23636: Hours, Occupations, and Gender Differences in Labor Market Outcomes

Andres Erosa, Luisa Fuster, Gueorgui Kambourov and Richard Rogerson

23635: Gender: An Historical Perspective

Paola Giuliano

23634: The Impacts of Reduced Access to Abortion and Family Planning Services on Abortion, Births, and Contraceptive Purchases

Stefanie Fischer, Heather Royer and Corey White

23633: It's a Cruel Summer: Household Responses to Reductions in Government Nutrition Assistance

Lorenzo Almada and Ian McCarthy

23632: Getting into the Weeds of Tax Invariance

Benjamin Hansen, Keaton Miller and Caroline Weber

23631: Tax Audits as Scarecrows: Evidence from a Large-Scale Field Experiment

Marcelo Bergolo, Rodrigo Ceni Gonzalez, Guillermo Cruces, Matias Giaccobasso and Ricardo Perez-Truglia

23630: Exporting and Organizational Change

Lorenzo Caliendo, Ferdinando Monte and Esteban Rossi-Hansberg

23629: Contagion During the Initial Banking Panic of the Great Depression

Erik Heitfield, Gary Richardson and Shirley Wang

23628: The Effects of U.S. Monetary Policy on Emerging Market Economies' Sovereign and Corporate Bond Markets

John Burger, Francis E. Warnock and Veronica Warnock

23627: Disclosure Rules and Declared Essential Patents

Rudi Bekkers, Christian Catalini, Arianna Martinelli, Cesare Righi and Timothy Simcoe

23626: Private Equity and Financial Fragility during the Crisis

Shai Bernstein, Josh Lerner and Filippo Mezzanotti

23625: Quicksand or Bedrock for Behavioral Economics? Assessing Foundational Empirical Questions

Victor Stango, Joanne Yoong and Jonathan Zinman

23624: The Welfare Effects of Long-Term Health Insurance Contracts

Benjamin R. Handel, Igal Hendel and Michael Whinston

23623: Surprise! Out-of-Network Billing for Emergency Care in the United States

Zack Cooper, Fiona Scott Morton and Nathan Shekita

23622: Is It Who You Are or Where You Live? Residential Segregation and Racial Gaps in Childhood Asthma

Diane Alexander and Janet Currie

23621: A Note on Nonparametric Identification of Distributions of Random Coefficients in Multinomial Choice Models

Jeremy Fox

23620: Paternalism and Pseudo-Rationality: An Illustration Based on Retirement Savings

Itzik Fadlon and David Laibson

23619: School Boards and Student Segregation

Hugh Macartney and John D. Singleton

23618: Mobility Report Cards: The Role of Colleges in Intergenerational Mobility

Raj Chetty, John Friedman, Emmanuel Saez, Nick Turner and Danny Yagan

23617: Understanding Cultural Persistence and Change

Paola Giuliano and Nathan Nunn

23616: Consumer Mobility and the Local Structure of Consumption Industries

Sumit Agarwal, J. Jensen and Ferdinando Monte

23615: Choosing Your Pond: Location Choices and Relative Income

Nicolas Bottan and Ricardo Perez-Truglia

23614: A Risk-centric Model of Demand Recessions and Speculation

Ricardo Caballero and Alp Simsek

23613: Does It Matter How and How Much Politicians are Paid?

Duha Altindag, Elif Filiz and Erdal Tekin

23612: The Capital Structure of Nations

Patrick Bolton and Haizhou Huang