NBER Working Papers

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23362: Using Non-Linear Budget Sets to Estimate Extensive Margin Responses: Method and Evidence from the Social Security Earnings Test

Alexander Gelber, Damon Jones, Daniel W. Sacks and Jae Song

23361: Nexus Tax Laws and Economies of Density in E-Commerce: A Study of Amazon’s Fulfillment Center Network

Jean-François Houde, Peter Newberry and Katja Seim

23360: Market Power and Price Discrimination in the U.S. Market for Higher Education

Dennis Epple, Richard Romano, Sinan Sarpça, Holger Sieg and Melanie Zaber

23359: Financial Integration and Liquidity Crises

Fabio Castiglionesi, Fabio Feriozzi and Guido Lorenzoni

23358: Household Matters: Revisiting the Returns to Capital among Female Micro-entrepreneurs

Arielle Bernhardt, Erica Field, Rohini Pande and Natalia Rigol

23357: Consumption Inequality and the Frequency of Purchases

Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Dmitri Koustas

23356: All the President’s Friends: Political Access and Firm Value

Jeffrey Brown and Jiekun Huang

23355: Harnessing Policy Complementarities to Conserve Energy: Evidence from a Natural Field Experiment

John List, Robert Metcalfe, Michael Price and Florian Rundhammer

23354: Turbulence, Firm Decentralization and Growth in Bad Times

Philippe Aghion, Nicholas Bloom, Brian Lucking, Raffaella Sadun and John van Reenen

23353: Cost of Service Regulation in U.S. Health Care: Minimum Medical Loss Ratios

Steve Cicala, Ethan Lieber and Victoria Marone

23352: Satisfaction Guaranteed: When Moral Hazard meets Moral Preferences

James Andreoni

23351: Supervisors and Performance Management Systems

Anders Frederiksen, Lisa Kahn and Fabian Lange

23350: Individuals and Organizations as Sources of State Effectiveness

Michael Best, Jonas Hjort and David Szakonyi

23349: A Strategy for Evaluating the Opportunity Cost of Time Estimates from New Choice Margins

K.E. McConnell, Juha Siikamäki and V. Smith

23348: Did Inequality in Farm Sizes Lead to Suppression of Banking and Credit in the Late Nineteenth Century?

Matthew Jaremski and Price Fishback

23347: Human Capital and Shocks: Evidence on Education, Health and Nutrition

Elizabeth Frankenberg and Duncan Thomas

23346: Averting Catastrophes that Kill

Ian Martin and Robert Pindyck

23345: Liquidity Constraints in the U.S. Housing Market

Corina Boar, Denis Gorea and Virgiliu Midrigan

23344: Sharing R&D Risk in Healthcare via FDA Hedges

Adam Jørring, Andrew Lo, Tomas Philipson, Manita Singh and Richard Thakor

23343: Growing, Shrinking, and Long Run Economic Performance: Historical Perspectives on Economic Development

Stephen Broadberry and John Joseph Wallis

23342: The Effect of Public Insurance Expansions on Substance Use Disorder Treatment: Evidence from the Affordable Care Act

Johanna Maclean and Brendan Saloner

23341: Precaution Versus Mercantilism: Reserve Accumulation, Capital Controls, and the Real Exchange Rate

Woo Jin Choi and Alan Taylor

23340: The Effect of Fuel Economy Standards on Vehicle Weight Dispersion and Accident Fatalities

Antonio Bento, Kenneth Gillingham and Kevin Roth

23339: Policy Distortions and Aggregate Productivity with Endogenous Establishment-Level Productivity

José-María Da-Rocha, Marina Tavares and Diego Restuccia

23338: The Income Elasticity of Import Demand: Micro Evidence and An Application

David Hummels and Kwan Yong Lee

23337: Queens

Oeindrila Dube and S.P. Harish

23336: 35 Years of Reforms: A Panel Analysis of the Incidence of, and Employee and Employer Responses to, Social Security Contributions in the UK

Stuart Adam, David Phillips and Barra Roantree

23335: An Economic Approach to Alleviate the Crises of Confidence in Science: With an Application to the Public Goods Game

Luigi Butera and John List

23334: The Effect of Stress on Later-Life Health: Evidence from the Vietnam Draft

John Cawley, Damien de Walque and Daniel Grossman

23333: The Effect of Labor Market Information on Community College Students’ Major Choice

Rachel Baker, Eric Bettinger, Brian Jacob and Ioana Marinescu

23332: Distortions and the Structure of the World Economy

Lorenzo Caliendo, Fernando Parro and Aleh Tsyvinski

23331: Risk Management with Supply Contracts

Heitor Almeida, Kristine Hankins and Ryan Williams

23330: Tradability and the Labor-Market Impact of Immigration: Theory and Evidence from the U.S

Ariel Burstein, Gordon Hanson, Lin Tian and Jonathan Vogel

23329: How the Growing Gap in Life Expectancy May Affect Retirement Benefits and Reforms

Alan Auerbach, Kerwin K. Charles, Courtney Coile, William Gale, Dana Goldman, Ronald Lee, Charles M. Lucas, Peter Orszag, Louise M. Sheiner, Bryan Tysinger, David Weil, Justin Wolfers and Rebeca Wong

23328: Skill Requirements across Firms and Labor Markets: Evidence from Job Postings for Professionals

David Deming and Lisa Kahn

23327: Did the Reform Fix the London Fix Problem?

Takatoshi Ito and Masahiro Yamada

23326: Estimating the Gains from New Rail Transit Investment: A Machine Learning Tree Approach

Seungwoo Chin, Matthew Kahn and Hyungsik Moon

23325: Is Europe an Optimal Political Area?

Alberto Alesina, Guido Tabellini and Francesco Trebbi

23324: Offshore Profit Shifting and Aggregate Measurement: Balance of Payments, Foreign Investment, Productivity, and the Labor Share

Fatih Guvenen, Raymond J. Mataloni, Jr., Dylan G. Rassier and Kim Ruhl

23323: China's GDP Growth May be Understated

Hunter Clark, Maxim Pinkovskiy and Xavier Sala-i-Martin

23322: Population and Civil War

Daron Acemoglu, Leopoldo Fergusson and Simon Johnson

23321: Top Income Inequality in the 21st Century: Some Cautionary Notes

Fatih Guvenen and Greg Kaplan

23320: The Productivity Advantage of Serial Entrepreneurs

Kathryn Shaw and Anders Sørensen

23319: Evolution of Assessments of the Economics of Global Warming: Changes in the DICE model, 1992 – 2017

William Nordhaus

23318: Distributional Impacts of Energy Taxes

William Pizer and Steven Sexton

23317: Is Post-Crisis Bond Liquidity Lower?

Mike Anderson and René Stulz

23316: Monetary Policy and Global Banking

Falk Bräuning and Victoria Ivashina

23315: Accounting for Growth in the Age of the Internet: The Importance of Output-Saving Technical Change

Charles Hulten and Leonard Nakamura

23314: Sovereign Default Risk and Firm Heterogeneity

Cristina Arellano, Yan Bai and Luigi Bocola

23313: The Effects of E-Cigarette Minimum Legal Sale Age Laws on Youth Substance Use

Dhaval Dave, Bo Feng and Michael Pesko

23312: Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises, Revisited

Mark Aguiar, Satyajit Chatterjee, Harold Cole and Zachary Stangebye

23311: Measuring the Effects of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance and Asset Purchases on Financial Markets

Eric Swanson

23310: Government Debt and Corporate Leverage: International Evidence

Irem Demirci, Jennifer Huang and Clemens Sialm

23309: The Effects of Financial Development on Foreign Direct Investment

Rodolphe Desbordes and Shang-Jin Wei

23308: Do Payroll Tax Breaks Stimulate Formality? Evidence from Colombia’s Reform

Adriana Kugler, Maurice Kugler and Luis Omar Herrera Prada

23307: The Long Reach of Education: Health, Wealth, and DI Participation

James Poterba, Steven Venti and David Wise

23306: Underestimating the Real Growth of GDP, Personal Income and Productivity

Martin Feldstein

23305: Asset Allocation in Bankruptcy

Shai Bernstein, Emanuele Colonnelli and Ben Iverson

23304: The Formation of Expectations, Inflation and the Phillips Curve

Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Rupal Kamdar

23303: Subrogation and the Theory of Insurance When Suits Can Be Brought for Losses Suffered

A. Mitchell Polinsky and Steven Shavell

23302: Financial Intermediary Capital

Adriano Rampini and S Viswanathan

23301: Roots of Autocracy

Oded Galor and Marc Klemp

23300: What Drives Differences in Management?

Nicholas Bloom, Erik Brynjolfsson, Lucia Foster, Ron Jarmin, Megha Patnaik, Itay Saporta-Eksten and John van Reenen

23299: Channels of Impact: User Reviews when Quality is Dynamic and Managers Respond

Judith Chevalier, Yaniv Dover and Dina Mayzlin

23298: Identification of and Correction for Publication Bias

Isaiah Andrews and Maximilian Kasy

23297: Seeing and Hearing: The Impacts of New York City’s Universal Prekindergarten Program on the Health of Low-Income Children

Kai Hong, Kacie Dragan and Sherry Glied

23296: The Value of Flexible Work: Evidence from Uber Drivers

M. Keith Chen, Judith Chevalier, Peter Rossi and Emily Oehlsen

23295: Citywide Effects of High-Occupancy Vehicle Restrictions: Evidence from the Elimination of ‘3-in-1’ in Jakarta

Rema Hanna, Gabriel Kreindler and Benjamin Olken

23294: Risk Aversion as a Perceptual Bias

Mel Win Khaw, Ziang Li and Michael Woodford

23293: What can we Learn from Euro-Dollar Tweets?

Vahid Gholampour and Eric van Wincoop

23292: Fifty Years Of Growth In American Consumption, Income, And Wages

Bruce Sacerdote

23291: The Cross Section of Bank Value

Mark Egan, Stefan Lewellen and Adi Sunderam

23290: Strengthening National Data to Better Measure What We Are Buying in Health Care: Reconciling National Health Expenditures with Detailed Survey Data

Allison B. Rosen, Kaushik Ghosh, Emily S. Pape, Marcelo Coca Perraillon, Irina Bondarenko, Kassandra L. Messer, Trivellore Raghunathan, Susan T. Stewart and David Cutler

23289: Migrants and the Making of America: The Short- and Long-Run Effects of Immigration during the Age of Mass Migration

Sandra Sequeira, Nathan Nunn and Nancy Qian

23288: Fintech, Regulatory Arbitrage, and the Rise of Shadow Banks

Greg Buchak, Gregor Matvos, Tomasz Piskorski and Amit Seru

23287: Bank Capital Redux: Solvency, Liquidity, and Crisis

Oscar Jorda, Björn Richter, Moritz Schularick and Alan Taylor

23286: Life Insurance and Life Settlement Markets with Overconfident Policyholders

Hanming Fang and Zenan Wu

23285: Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets

Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo

23284: Students in Distress: Labor Market Shocks, Student Loan Default, and Federal Insurance Programs

Holger M. Mueller and Constantine Yannelis

23283: Horizontal and Vertical Polarization: Task-Specific Technological Change in a Multi-Sector Economy

Sang Yoon (Tim) Lee and Yongseok Shin

23282: What do Editors Maximize? Evidence from Four Leading Economics Journals

David Card and Stefano DellaVigna

23281: Monetary Policy, Bounded Rationality, and Incomplete Markets

Emmanuel Farhi and Iván Werning

23280: Mapping the Interconnectedness between EU Banks and Shadow Banking Entities

Jorge Abad, Marco D'Errico, Neill Killeen, Vera Luz, Tuomas Peltonen, Richard Portes and Teresa Urbano

23279: Urban Productivity in the Developing World

Edward Glaeser and Wentao Xiong

23278: The Political Economy of Heterogeneity and Conflict

Enrico Spolaore and Romain Wacziarg

23277: Do The Effects of Nudges Persist? Theory and Evidence from 38 Natural Field Experiments

Alec Brandon, Paul Ferraro, John List, Robert Metcalfe, Michael Price and Florian Rundhammer

23276: Text as Data

Matthew Gentzkow, Bryan T. Kelly and Matt Taddy

23275: Medium- and Long-Term Educational Consequences of Alternative Conditional Cash Transfer Designs: Experimental Evidence from Colombia

Felipe Barrera-Osorio, Leigh Linden and Juan Saavedra

23274: Demand for Information and Asset Pricing

Azi Ben-Rephael, Bruce I. Carlin, Zhi Da and Ryan Israelsen

23273: Competing for Capital: Auditing and Credibility in Financial Reporting

Raphael Boleslavsky, Bruce I. Carlin and Christopher Cotton

23272: Tropical Forests, Tipping Points, and the Social Cost of Deforestation

Sergio L. Franklin, Jr. and Robert Pindyck

23271: Adaptation and the Mortality Effects of Temperature Across U.S. Climate Regions

Garth Heutel, Nolan H. Miller and David Molitor

23270: Regional Heterogeneity and Monetary Policy

Martin Beraja, Andreas Fuster, Erik Hurst and Joseph Vavra

23269: Early Effects of the Affordable Care Act on Health Care Access, Risky Health Behaviors, and Self-Assessed Health

Charles Courtemanche, James Marton, Benjamin Ukert, Aaron Yelowitz and Daniela Zapata

23268: What is a Patent Worth? Evidence from the U.S. Patent “Lottery”

Joan Farre-Mensa, Deepak Hegde and Alexander Ljungqvist

23267: Exchange Rate Prediction Redux: New Models, New Data, New Currencies

Yin-Wong Cheung, Menzie Chinn, Antonio Garcia Pascual and Yi Zhang

23266: Exchange Rate Policies at the Zero Lower Bound

Manuel Amador, Javier Bianchi, Luigi Bocola and Fabrizio Perri

23265: Minimizing Justified Envy in School Choice: The Design of New Orleans' OneApp

Atila Abdulkadiroglu, Yeon-Koo Che, Parag Pathak, Alvin Roth and Olivier Tercieux

23264: Living Up to Expectations: How Job Training Made Women Better Off and Men Worse Off

Paloma Acevedo, Guillermo Cruces, Paul Gertler and Sebastian Martinez

23263: Revising Infant Mortality Rates for the Early 20th Century United States

Katherine Eriksson, Gregory Niemesh and Melissa Thomasson