NBER Working Papers

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23182: Firm-Related Risk and Precautionary Saving Response

Andreas Fagereng, Luigi Guiso and Luigi Pistaferri

23181: Impact of Violent Crime on Risk Aversion: Evidence from the Mexican Drug War

Ryan Brown, Verónica Montalva, Duncan Thomas and Andrea Velasquez

23180: Human Decisions and Machine Predictions

Jon Kleinberg, Himabindu Lakkaraju, Jure Leskovec, Jens Ludwig and Sendhil Mullainathan

23179: Funding Liquidity without Banks: Evidence from a Shock to the Cost of Very Short-Term Debt

Felipe Restrepo, Lina Cardona-Sosa and Philip E. Strahan

23178: Illusory Gains from Chile's Targeted School Voucher Experiment

Benjamin Feigenberg, Steven Rivkin and Rui Yan

23177: Sticking Points: Common-Agency Problems and Contracting in the U.S. Healthcare System

Brigham Frandsen, Michael Powell and James Rebitzer

23176: Firms' Internal Networks and Local Economic Shocks

Xavier Giroud and Holger M. Mueller

23175: Currency Matters: Analyzing International Bond Portfolios

John Burger, Francis E. Warnock and Veronica Warnock

23174: The Returns to Nursing: Evidence from a Parental Leave Program

Benjamin U. Friedrich and Martin Hackmann

23173: When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Young Men

David Autor, David Dorn and Gordon Hanson

23172: Recovery from the Great Depression: The Farm Channel in Spring 1933

Joshua Hausman, Paul Rhode and Johannes Wieland

23171: With a Little Help from My Friends: The Effects of Naloxone Access and Good Samaritan Laws on Opioid-Related Deaths

Daniel Rees, Joseph J. Sabia, Laura M. Argys, Joshua Latshaw and Dhaval Dave

23170: Deviations from Covered Interest Rate Parity

Wenxin Du, Alexander Tepper and Adrien Verdelhan

23169: Revisiting the Commodity Curse: A Financial Perspective

Enrique Alberola and Gianluca Benigno

23168: Self-Employment Dynamics and the Returns to Entrepreneurship

Eleanor Dillon and Christopher T. Stanton

23167: Bank Health Post-Crisis

Kyriakos T. Chousakos and Gary Gorton

23166: Evaluating Measures of Hospital Quality

Joseph J. Doyle, Jr., John A. Graves and Jonathan Gruber

23165: A Narrative Analysis of Mortgage Asset Purchases by Federal Agencies

Andrew Fieldhouse and Karel Mertens

23164: When Britain turned inward: Protection and the shift towards Empire in Interwar Britain

Alan de Bromhead, Alan Fernihough, Markus Lampe and Kevin O'Rourke

23163: Worker Betas: Five Facts about Systematic Earnings Risk

Fatih Guvenen, Sam Schulhofer-Wohl, Jae Song and Motohiro Yogo

23162: Bankruptcy Spillovers

Shai Bernstein, Emanuele Colonnelli, Xavier Giroud and Benjamin Iverson

23161: What is the Price of Tea in China? Towards the Relative Cost of Living in Chinese and U.S. Cities

Robert Feenstra, Mingzhi (Jimmy) Xu and Alexis Antoniades

23160: Short-Run Effects of Lower Productivity Growth. A Twist on the Secular Stagnation Hypothesis

Olivier Blanchard, Guido Lorenzoni and Jean-Paul L'Huillier

23159: Beyond the Classroom: The Implications of School Vouchers for Church Finances

Daniel Hungerman, Kevin Rinz and Jay Frymark

23158: Monetary Policy and the Predictability of Nominal Exchange Rates

Martin Eichenbaum, Benjamin K. Johannsen and Sergio Rebelo

23157: Circumventing the Zero Lower Bound with Monetary Policy Rules Based on Money

Michael Belongia and Peter Ireland

23156: The End of Alchemy: A Review Essay

Roger Farmer

23155: The Impact of Climate Change Skepticism on Adaptation in a Market Economy

Matthew Kahn and Daxuan Zhao

23154: The Macroeconomic Effects of Government Asset Purchases: Evidence from Postwar US Housing Credit Policy

Andrew Fieldhouse, Karel Mertens and Morten Ravn

23153: Understanding the Economic Impact of the H-1B Program on the U.S

John Bound, Gaurav Khanna and Nicolas Morales

23152: Company Stock Reactions to the 2016 Election Shock: Trump, Taxes and Trade

Alexander Wagner, Richard Zeckhauser and Alexandre Ziegler

23151: Tight Money-Tight Credit: Coordination Failure in the Conduct of Monetary and Financial Policies

Julio Carrillo, Enrique Mendoza, Victoria Nuguer and Jessica Roldán-Peña

23150: The Distribution of Public Spending for Health Care in the United States on the Eve of Health Reform

Didem Bernard, Thomas Selden and Yuriy Pylypchuk

23149: International Spillovers and Local Credit Cycles

Julian di Giovanni, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Mehmet Ulu and Yusuf Baskaya

23148: The Effect of Prescription Drug Monitoring Programs on Opioid Utilization in Medicare

Thomas Buchmueller and Colleen Carey

23147: Austerity in the Aftermath of the Great Recession

Christopher House, Christian Proebsting and Linda Tesar

23146: Rethinking Detroit

Raymond Owens, Esteban Rossi-Hansberg and Pierre Daniel Sarte

23145: The Macroeconomic Impact of Microeconomic Shocks: Beyond Hulten's Theorem

David Baqaee and Emmanuel Farhi

23144: Undergraduate Econometrics Instruction: Through Our Classes, Darkly

Joshua Angrist and Jorn-Steffen Pischke

23143: Shocks vs. Responsiveness: What Drives Time-Varying Dispersion?

David Berger and Joseph Vavra

23142: Revisions in Utilization-Adjusted TFP and Robust Identification of News Shocks

André Kurmann and Eric Sims

23141: Keynes and the Dollar in 1933

Sebastian Edwards

23140: Estimating Global Bank Network Connectedness

Mert Demirer, Francis Diebold, Laura Liu and Kamil Yilmaz

23139: Did Medicaid Expansion Reduce Medical Divorce?

David Slusky and Donna Ginther

23138: Endogenous Appropriability

Joshua Gans and Scott Stern

23137: Immigration and the Rise of American Ingenuity

Ufuk Akcigit, John Grigsby and Tom Nicholas

23136: The Anatomy of Sentiment-Driven Fluctuations

Sushant Acharya, Jess Benhabib and Zhen Huo

23135: The Country Chronologies to Exchange Rate Arrangements into the 21st Century: Will the Anchor Currency Hold?

Ethan Ilzetzki, Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff

23134: Exchange Arrangements Entering the 21st Century: Which Anchor Will Hold?

Ethan Ilzetzki, Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff

23133: The Global Rise of Corporate Saving

Peter Chen, Loukas Karabarbounis and Brent Neiman

23132: The Recent Growth Boom in Developing Economies: A Structural Change Perspective

Xinshen Diao, Margaret McMillan and Dani Rodrik

23131: Antitrust Treatment of Nonprofits: Should Hospitals Receive Special Care?

Cory Capps, Dennis Carlton and Guy David

23130: Social Ties and Favoritism in Chinese Science

Raymond Fisman, Jing Shi, Yongxiang Wang and Rong Xu

23129: The Sources of Capital Misallocation

Joel David and Venky Venkateswaran

23128: Land Misallocation and Productivity

Chaoran Chen, Diego Restuccia and Raul Santaeulalia-Llopis

23127: Rents, Technical Change, and Risk Premia: Accounting for Secular Trends in Interest Rates, Returns on Capital, Earning Yields, and Factor Shares

Ricardo Caballero, Emmanuel Farhi and Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas

23126: Re-examining the Middle-Income Trap Hypothesis (MITH): What to Reject and What to Revive?

Xuehui Han and Shang-Jin Wei

23125: Immigration Restrictions as Active Labor Market Policy: Evidence from the Mexican Bracero Exclusion

Michael Clemens, Ethan Lewis and Hannah M. Postel

23124: On the Global Financial Market Integration “Swoosh” and the Trilemma

Geert Bekaert and Arnaud Mehl

23123: When No Bad Deed Goes Punished: Relational Contracting in Ghana versus the UK

Elwyn Davies and Marcel Fafchamps

23122: Keepin' 'em Down on the Farm: Migration and Strategic Investment in Children's Schooling

Robert Jensen and Nolan H. Miller

23121: Assessing Managerial Ability: Implications for Corporate Governance

Benjamin Hermalin and Michael Weisbach

23120: Who Becomes a Politician?

Ernesto Dal Bó, Frederico Finan, Olle Folke, Torsten Persson and Johanna Rickne

23119: Global Inequality Dynamics: New Findings from WID.world

Facundo Alvaredo, Lucas Chancel, Thomas Piketty, Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman

23118: Measuring Loan Outcomes at Postsecondary Institutions: Cohort Repayment Rates as an Indicator of Student Success and Institutional Accountability

Tiffany Chou, W. Looney and Tara Watson

23117: Decomposing Medical-Care Expenditure Growth

Abe Dunn, Eli Liebman and Adam Shapiro

23116: Gross Capital Flows by Banks, Corporates and Sovereigns

Stefan Avdjiev, Bryan Hardy, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan and Luis Servén

23115: Assignment of Stock Market Coverage

Briana Chang and Harrison Hong

23114: Secondary Pharmaceutical Patenting: A Global Perspective

Bhaven Sampat and Kenneth C. Shadlen

23113: The (Dis)Advantages of Clearinghouses Before the Fed

Matthew Jaremski

23112: How Are SNAP Benefits Spent? Evidence from a Retail Panel

Justine Hastings and Jesse Shapiro

23111: Challenges in Constructing a Survey-Based Well-Being Index

Daniel Benjamin, Kristen Cooper, Ori Heffetz and Miles Kimball

23110: Are Protests Games of Strategic Complements or Substitutes? Experimental Evidence from Hong Kong's Democracy Movement

Davide Cantoni, David Yang, Noam Yuchtman and Y. Jane Zhang

23109: Post Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Theory

Roger Farmer

23108: Concentrating on the Fall of the Labor Share

David Autor, David Dorn, Lawrence Katz, Christina Patterson and John van Reenen

23107: Direct and Spillover Effects of Middle School Vaccination Requirements

Christopher Carpenter and Emily C. Lawler

23106: The Competitive Effects of Transmission Infrastructure in the Indian Electricity Market

Nicholas Ryan

23105: The Business of Business is Business: Why (Some) Firms Should Provide Public Goods when they Sell Private Goods

Chien-Yu Lai, Andreas Lange, John List and Michael Price

23104: Price-Linked Subsidies and Imperfect Competition in Health Insurance

Sonia Jaffe and Mark Shepard

23103: Family Economics Writ Large

Jeremy Greenwood, Nezih Guner and Guillaume Vandenbroucke

23102: Firm Performance and the Volatility of Worker Earnings

Chinhui Juhn, Kristin McCue, Holly Monti and Brooks Pierce

23101: Firm Heterogeneity in Consumption Baskets: Evidence from Home and Store Scanner Data

Benjamin Faber and Thibault Fally

23100: Provider Incentives and Healthcare Costs: Evidence from Long-Term Care Hospitals

Liran Einav, Amy Finkelstein and Neale Mahoney

23099: Fire in the Belly? Employee Motives and Innovative Performance in Startups versus Established Firms

Henry Sauermann

23098: The Distortionary Effects of Incentives in Government: Evidence from China's “Death Ceiling” Program

Raymond Fisman and Yongxiang Wang

23097: Do Energy Efficiency Investments Deliver at the Right Time?

Judson P. Boomhower and Lucas Davis

23096: Racial/Ethnic Differences in Non-Work at Work

Daniel Hamermesh, Katie R. Genadek and Michael Burda

23095: Reconciling Models of Diffusion and Innovation: A Theory of the Productivity Distribution and Technology Frontier

Jess Benhabib, Jesse Perla and Christopher Tonetti

23094: Health Insurance Expansions and Provider Behavior: Evidence from Substance Use Disorder Providers

Johanna Maclean, Ioana Popovici and Elisheva Rachel Stern

23093: A Model of Secular Stagnation: Theory and Quantitative Evaluation

Gauti Eggertsson, Neil R. Mehrotra and Jacob Robbins

23092: The Impact of the Affordable Care Act Young Adult Provision on Childbearing, Marriage, and Tax Filing Behavior: Evidence from Tax Data

Bradley Heim, Ithai Lurie and Kosali Simon

23091: How do Quasi-Random Option Grants Affect CEO Risk-Taking?

Kelly Shue and Richard Townsend

23090: Healthcare Spending and Utilization in Public and Private Medicare

Vilsa Curto, Liran Einav, Amy Finkelstein, Jonathan Levin and Jay Bhattacharya

23089: Social Media and Fake News in the 2016 Election

Hunt Allcott and Matthew Gentzkow

23088: How Do Patents Affect Research Investments?

Heidi Williams

23087: When Children Rule: Parenting in Modern Families

Sebastian Galiani, Matthew Staiger and Gustavo Torrens

23086: Designing Women: Consumer Goods Innovations in Britain, France and the United States, 1750-1900

B. Zorina Khan

23085: Regressive Sin Taxes

Benjamin Lockwood and Dmitry Taubinsky

23084: Estimating the Employment Effects of Recent Minimum Wage Changes: Early Evidence, an Interpretative Framework, and a Pre-Commitment to Future Analysis

Jeffrey Clemens and Michael Strain

23083: Backtesting European Stress Tests

Thomas Philippon, Pierre Pessarossi and Boubacar Camara