NBER Working Papers

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28462: A Division of Laborers: Identity and Efficiency in India

Guilhem Cassan, Daniel Keniston and Tatjana Kleineberg

28461: The Work-from-Home Technology Boon and its Consequences

Morris Davis, Andra Ghent and Jesse M. Gregory

28460: Biosimilar Competition: Early Learning

Richard G. Frank, Mahnum Shahzad, William B. Feldman and Aaron S. Kesselheim

28459: Asymmetric Information and Sovereign Debt: Theory Meets Mexican Data

Harold Cole, Daniel Neuhann and Guillermo Ordonez

28458: Gang rule: Understanding and Countering Criminal Governance

Christopher Blattman, Gustavo Duncan, Benjamin Lessing and Santiago Tobon

28457: Getting the Price Right? The Impact of Competitive Bidding in the Medicare Program

Hui Ding, Mark Duggan and Amanda Starc

28456: Sticky Price for Declining Risk? Business Strategies with “Behavioral” Customers in the Hotel Industry

Nicola Lacetera, Claudio Piga and Lorenzo Zirulia

28455: To What Extent Does In-Person Schooling Contribute to the Spread of COVID-19? Evidence from Michigan and Washington

Dan Goldhaber, Scott Imberman, Katharine O. Strunk, Bryant Hopkins, Nate Brown, Erica Harbatkin and Tara Kilbride

28454: Evaluating Contradictory Experimental and Non-Experimental Estimates of Neighborhood Effects on Economic Outcomes for Adults

David J. Harding, Lisa Sanbonmatsu, Greg Duncan, Lisa A. Gennetian, Lawrence Katz, Ronald C. Kessler, Jeffrey Kling, Matthew Sciandra and Jens Ludwig

28453: Artificial Intelligence, Globalization, and Strategies for Economic Development

Anton Korinek and Joseph Stiglitz

28452: The Recovery From The Great Recession: A Long, Evolving Expansion

Jay Shambaugh and Michael Strain

28451: Low Energy: Estimating Electric Vehicle Electricity Use

Fiona Burlig, James Bushnell, David Rapson and Catherine Wolfram

28450: Just Above the Exam Cutoff Score: Elite College Admission and Wages in China

Ruixue Jia and Hongbin Li

28449: Addressing Partial Identification in Climate Modeling and Policy Analysis

Charles Manski, Alan H. Sanstad and Stephen DeCanio

28448: The Immigrant Next Door: Long-Term Contact, Generosity, and Prejudice

Leonardo Bursztyn, Thomas Chaney, Tarek Hassan and Aakaash Rao

28447: Forecasting the U.S. Dollar in the 21st Century

Charles Engel and Steve Pak Yeung Wu

28446: Vaccination Planning under Uncertainty, with Application to Covid-19

Charles Manski

28445: Unemployment in the Time of COVID-19: A Flow-Based Approach to Real-time Unemployment Projections

Aysegul Sahin, Murat Tasci and Jin Yan

28444: The Price and Quantity of Interest Rate Risk

Jennifer Carpenter, Fangzhou Lu and Robert F. Whitelaw

28443: Are Behavioral Change Interventions Needed to Make Cash Transfer Programs Work for Children? Experimental Evidence from Myanmar

Erica M. Field and Elisa M. Maffioli

28442: Solar Geoengineering, Learning, and Experimentation

David Kelly, Garth Heutel, Juan Moreno-Cruz and Soheil Shayegh

28441: Uncovering the Hidden Effort Problem

Azi Ben-Rephael, Bruce I. Carlin, Zhi Da and Ryan Israelsen

28440: Uneven Growth: Automation's Impact on Income and Wealth Inequality

Benjamin Moll, Lukasz Rachel and Pascual Restrepo

28439: The Health Costs of Cost-Sharing

Amitabh Chandra, Evan Flack and Ziad Obermeyer

28438: What Do Happiness Data Mean? Theory and Survey Evidence

Daniel Benjamin, Jakina Guzman, Marc Fleurbaey, Ori Heffetz and Miles Kimball

28437: How the New Fed Municipal Bond Facility Capped Muni-Treasury Yield Spreads in the Covid-19 Recession

Michael Bordo and John Duca

28436: Using Monotonicity Restrictions to Identify Models with Partially Latent Covariates

Minji Bang, Wayne Gao, Andrew Postlewaite and Holger Sieg

28435: The Unholy Trinity: Regulatory Forbearance, Stressed Banks and Zombie Firms

Anusha Chari, Lakshita Jain and Nirupama Kulkarni

28434: A Parsimonious Behavioral SEIR Model of the 2020 COVID Epidemic in the United States and the United Kingdom

Andrew Atkeson

28433: O-Ring Production Networks

Banu Demir, Ana Cecília Fieler, Yi Xu and Kelly Yang

28432: Is There A Replication Crisis In Finance?

Theis Ingerslev Jensen, Bryan T. Kelly and Lasse Pedersen

28431: Man Versus Machine? Self-Reports Versus Algorithmic Measurement of Publications

Xuan Jiang, Wan-Ying Chang and Bruce Weinberg

28430: Time Aggregation in Health Insurance Deductibles

Long Hong and Corina Mommaerts

28429: Data-Driven Incentive Alignment in Capitation Schemes

Mark Braverman and Sylvain Chassang

28428: The Effects of Negative Equity on Children’s Educational Outcomes

Vicki Been, Ingrid Ellen, David Figlio, Ashlyn Nelson, Stephen Ross, Amy Schwartz and Leanna Stiefel

28427: A Model of the Data Economy

Maryam Farboodi and Laura Veldkamp

28426: The Macroeconomics of Financial Speculation

Alp Simsek

28425: Partisanship and Fiscal Policy in Economic Unions: Evidence from U.S. States

Gerald Carlino, Thorsten Drautzburg, Robert P. Inman and Nicholas Zarra

28424: Earnings Inequality in Production Networks

Federico Huneeus, Kory Kroft and Kevin Lim

28423: From Micro to Macro Development

Francisco Buera, Joseph Kaboski and Robert Townsend

28422: The Incidence of Extreme Economic Stress: Evidence from Utility Disconnections

Steve Cicala

28421: Migration, Specialization, and Trade: Evidence from Brazil's March to the West

Heitor Pellegrina and Sebastian Sotelo

28420: A Reconsideration of the Failure of Uncovered Interest Parity for the U.S. Dollar

Charles Engel, Ekaterina Kazakova, Mengqi Wang and Nan Xiang

28419: Education Gradients in Mortality Trends by Gender and Race

Adam Leive and Christopher Ruhm

28418: COVID-19 and SMEs: A 2021 "Time Bomb"?

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Veronika Penciakova and Nick Sander

28417: Early Joiners and Startup Performance

Joonkyu Choi, Nathan Goldschlag, John Haltiwanger and J. Daniel Kim

28416: Real Credit Cycles

Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Andrei Shleifer and Stephen Terry

28415: Economic Fluctuations and Pseudo-Wealth

Joseph Stiglitz

28414: Sales Losses in the First Quarter of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from California Administrative Data

Robert Fairlie and Frank Fossen

28413: Selection on Welfare Gains: Experimental Evidence from Electricity Plan Choice

Koichiro Ito, Takanori Ida and Makoto Tanaka

28412: Optimal Bailouts in Banking and Sovereign Crises

Sewon Hur, Cesar Sosa-Padilla and Zeynep Yom

28411: Kindleberger Cycles: Method in the madness of crowds?

Randall Morck

28410: Political Violence, Risk Aversion, and Non-Localized Disease Spread: Evidence from the U.S. Capitol Riot

Dhaval Dave, Drew McNichols and Joseph J. Sabia

28409: Wage Posting or Wage Bargaining? A Test Using Dual Jobholders

Marta Lachowska, Alexandre Mas, Raffaele Saggio and Stephen Woodbury

28408: Model Complexity, Expectations, and Asset Prices

Pooya Molavi, Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi and Andrea Vedolin

28407: Workforce Aging, Pension Reforms, and Firm Outcomes

Francesca Carta, Francesco D'Amuri and Till von Wachter

28406: Scope Challenges to Social Impact

Monica P. Bhatt, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig and Anuj K. Shah

28405: Bad Men, Good Roads, Jim Crow, and the Economics of Southern Chain Gangs

Howard Bodenhorn

28404: Exchange Rates and Prices: Evidence from the 2015 Swiss Franc Appreciation

Raphael Auer, Ariel Burstein and Sarah Lein

28403: A Theory of Power Structure and Institutional Compatibility: China vs. Europe Revisited

Ruixue Jia, Gérard Roland and Yang Xie

28402: The Worker-Job Surplus

Ilse Lindenlaub and Fabien Postel-Vinay

28401: The Productivity Consequences of Pollution-Induced Migration in China

Gaurav Khanna, Wenquan Liang, Ahmed Mobarak and Ran Song

28400: Marriage Dynamics, Earnings Dynamics, and Lifetime Family Income

Joseph Altonji, Daniel Giraldo Páez, Disa Hynsjo and Ivan Vidangos

28399: Seeing Beyond the Trees: Using Machine Learning to Estimate the Impact of Minimum Wages on Labor Market Outcomes

Doruk Cengiz, Arindrajit Dube, Attila S. Lindner and David Zentler-Munro

28398: Tax Filing and Take-Up: Experimental Evidence on Tax Preparation Outreach and EITC Participation

Jacob Goldin, Tatiana Homonoff, Rizwan Javaid and Brenda Schafer

28397: Gender and Bureaucratic Corruption: Evidence from Two Countries

Francesco Decarolis, Raymond Fisman, Paolo Pinotti, Silvia Vannutelli and Yongxiang Wang

28396: Is Automatic Enrollment Consistent with a Life Cycle Model?

Jason Scott, John B. Shoven, Sita Slavov and John G. Watson

28395: The Economic Case for Global Vaccinations: An Epidemiological Model with International Production Networks

Cem Çakmaklı, Selva Demiralp, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Sevcan Yesiltas and Muhammed A. Yıldırım

28394: Housing Precarity & the COVID-19 Pandemic: Impacts of Utility Disconnection and Eviction Moratoria on Infections and Deaths Across US Counties

Kay Jowers, Christopher Timmins, Nrupen Bhavsar, Qihui Hu and Julia Marshall

28393: A Call for Structured Ethics Appendices in Social Science Papers

Edward Asiedu, Dean Karlan, Monica Lambon-Quayefio and Christopher Udry

28392: COVID-19 and Global Income Inequality

Angus Deaton

28391: Trade and Domestic Distortions: the Case of Informality

Rafael Dix-Carneiro, Pinelopi Goldberg, Costas Meghir and Gabriel Ulyssea

28390: Quality and Price Setting of High-Tech Goods

Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Oleksandr Talavera and Nam Vu

28389: Where is Pollution Moving? Environmental Markets and Environmental Justice

Joseph Shapiro and Reed Walker

28388: Myth or Measurement: What Does the New Minimum Wage Research Say about Minimum Wages and Job Loss in the United States?

David Neumark and Peter Shirley

28387: Public Economics and Inequality: Uncovering Our Social Nature

Emmanuel Saez

28386: Hungry for Success? SNAP Timing, High-Stakes Exam Performance, and College Attendance

Timothy Bond, Jillian Carr, Analisa Packham and Jonathan Smith

28385: Trends in U.S. Spatial Inequality: Concentrating Affluence and a Democratization of Poverty

Cecile Gaubert, Patrick Kline, Damián Vergara and Danny Yagan

28384: Constrained-Efficient Capital Reallocation

Andrea Lanteri and Adriano Rampini

28383: Household Wealth Trends in the United States, 1962 to 2019: Median Wealth Rebounds... But Not Enough

Edward N. Wolff

28382: Gender Differences in (some) Formative Inputs to Child Development

Michael Baker

28381: The Impact of Regulation on Innovation

Philippe Aghion, Antonin Bergeaud and John van Reenen

28380: A Second-best Argument for Low Optimal Tariffs

Lorenzo Caliendo, Robert Feenstra, John Romalis and Alan Taylor

28379: The Organization of Innovation: Incomplete Contracts and the Outsourcing Decision

Thomas Jungbauer, Sean Nicholson, June Pan, Michael Waldman and Lucy Xiaolu Wang

28378: Contracting in Peer Networks

Peter DeMarzo and Ron Kaniel

28377: Liquidity, Pledgeability, and the Nature of Lending

Douglas Diamond, Yunzhi Hu and Raghuram Rajan

28376: Information Avoidance and Image Concerns

Christine L. Exley and Judd B. Kessler

28375: Labor Market Institutions and the Distribution of Wages: The Role of Spillover Effects

Nicole Fortin, Thomas Lemieux and Neil Lloyd

28374: The Impact of the Non-essential Business Closure Policy on Covid-19 Infection Rates

Hummy Song, Ryan M. McKenna, Angela T. Chen, Guy David and Aaron Smith-McLallen

28373: The Effects of Youth Employment on Crime: Evidence from New York City Lotteries

Judd B. Kessler, Sarah Tahamont, Alexander M. Gelber and Adam Isen

28372: Globalization and Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Evidence from the United States

Claire Brunel and Arik Levinson

28371: Efficiency and Equity Impacts of Energy Subsidies

Robert W. Hahn and Robert Metcalfe

28370: Poverty in China since 1950: A Counterfactual Perspective

Martin Ravallion

28369: Competition for Attention in the ETF Space

Itzhak Ben-David, Francesco Franzoni, Byungwook Kim and Rabih Moussawi

28368: Price Limits in a Tradable Performance Standard

Banban Wang, William Pizer and Clayton Munnings

28367: Robust Financial Contracting and Investment

Aifan Ling, Jianjun Miao and Neng Wang

28366: Fiscal Multipliers: A Heterogenous-Agent Perspective

Tobias Broer, Per Krusell and Erik Öberg

28365: Changes in Social Network Structure in Response to Exposure to Formal Credit Markets

Abhijit Banerjee, Emily Breza, Arun Chandrasekhar, Esther Duflo, Matthew Jackson and Cynthia Kinnan

28364: Double-Robust Identification for Causal Panel Data Models

Dmitry Arkhangelsky and Guido Imbens

28363: Smart(Phone) Investing? A within Investor-time Analysis of New Technologies and Trading Behavior

Ankit Kalda, Benjamin Loos, Alessandro Previtero and Andreas Hackethal