NBER Working Papers

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27327: Belief Elicitation: Limiting Truth Telling with Information on Incentives

David Danz, Lise Vesterlund and Alistair Wilson

27326: Holiday, Just One Day Out of Life: Birth Timing and Post-natal Outcomes

Mireille Jacobson, Maria Kogelnik and Heather Royer

27325: Imperfect Competition and Rents in Labor and Product Markets: The Case of the Construction Industry

Kory Kroft, Yao Luo, Magne Mogstad and Bradley Setzler

27324: Policing the Police: The Impact of "Pattern-or-Practice" Investigations on Crime

Tanaya Devi and Roland Fryer

27323: Reserve Accumulation, Macroeconomic Stabilization, and Sovereign Risk

Javier Bianchi and Cesar Sosa-Padilla

27322: Are the Effects of Adoption and Termination of Shelter-in-Place Orders Symmetric? Evidence from a Natural Experiment

Dhaval Dave, Andrew Friedson, Kyutaro Matsuzawa, Drew McNichols and Joseph J. Sabia

27321: The Employment Impact of Green Fiscal Push: Evidence from the American Recovery Act

David Popp, Francesco Vona, Giovanni Marin and Ziqiao Chen

27320: Civic Capital and Social Distancing during the Covid-19 Pandemic

John Barrios, Efraim Benmelech, Yael V. Hochberg, Paola Sapienza and Luigi Zingales

27319: Broad Bracketing for Low Probability Events

Shereen J. Chaudhry, Michael Hand and Howard Kunreuther

27318: Gender Differences in Negotiation: Evidence from Real Estate Transactions

Steffen Andersen, Julie Marx, Kasper Meisner Nielsen and Lise Vesterlund

27317: No Firm is an Island? How Industry Conditions Shape Firms' Aggregate Expectations

Philippe Andrade, Olivier Coibion, Erwan Gautier and Yuriy Gorodnichenko

27316: Weak Credit Covenants

Victoria Ivashina and Boris Vallee

27315: Short-run Effects of COVID-19 on U.S. Worker Transitions

Benjamin Cowan

27314: Does Poverty Change Labor Supply? Evidence from Multiple Income Effects and 115,579 Bags

Abhijit Banerjee, Dean Karlan, Hannah Trachtman and Christopher Udry

27313: Monetary Policy with Opinionated Markets

Ricardo Caballero and Alp Simsek

27312: My Professor Cares: Experimental Evidence on the Role of Faculty Engagement

Scott Carrell and Michal Kurlaender

27311: Program Recertification Costs: Evidence from SNAP

Tatiana Homonoff and Jason Somerville

27310: Predicting Social Tipping and Norm Change in Controlled Experiments

James Andreoni, Nikos Nikiforakis and Simon Siegenthaler

27309: The Impact of Covid-19 on Small Business Owners: Evidence of Early-Stage Losses from the April 2020 Current Population Survey

Robert Fairlie

27308: Imperfect Macroeconomic Expectations: Evidence and Theory

George-Marios Angeletos, Zhen Huo and Karthik A. Sastry

27307: Revenue at Risk in Coal-Reliant Counties

Adele Morris, Noah Kaufman and Siddhi Doshi

27306: Medicaid Expansion and the Mental Health of College Students

Benjamin Cowan and Zhuang Hao

27305: A Liberalization Spillover: From Equities to Loans

Xin Liu, Shang-Jin Wei and Yifan Zhou

27304: What We Know and Don't Know about Climate Change, and Implications for Policy

Robert Pindyck

27303: Plants in Space

Ezra Oberfield, Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, Pierre Daniel Sarte and Nicholas Trachter

27302: The Long-Run Effects of School Racial Diversity on Political Identity

Stephen Billings, Eric Chyn and Kareem Haggag

27301: Reciprocity versus Reelection

Prateik Dalmia, Allan Drazen and Erkut Ozbay

27300: Search Frictions and Efficiency in Decentralized Transportation Markets

Giulia Brancaccio, Myrto Kalouptsidi, Theodore Papageorgiou and Nicola Rosaia

27299: Social Proximity to Capital: Implications for Investors and Firms

Theresa Kuchler, Yan Li, Lin Peng, Johannes Stroebel and Dexin Zhou

27298: Experimental Evidence on Alternative Policies to Increase Learning at Scale

Annie Duflo, Jessica Kiessel and Adrienne Lucas

27297: The Food Problem and the Aggregate Productivity Consequences of Climate Change

Ishan B. Nath

27296: Founder-CEO Compensation and Selection into Venture Capital-Backed Entrepreneurship

Michael Ewens, Ramana Nanda and Christopher T. Stanton

27295: Wall Street vs. Main Street QE

Eric Sims and Jing Cynthia Wu

27294: Disparities in Vulnerability to Severe Complications from COVID-19 in the United States

Emily E. Wiemers, Scott Abrahams, Marwa AlFakhri, V. Joseph Hotz, Robert Schoeni and Judith A. Seltzer

27293: Statistical Decision Properties of Imprecise Trials Assessing COVID-19 Drugs

Charles Manski and Aleksey Tetenov

27292: The Anatomy of the Transmission of Macroprudential Policies

Viral Acharya, Katharina Bergant, Matteo Crosignani, Tim Eisert and Fergal McCann

27291: Yield Performance of Corn under Heat Stress: A Comparison of Hybrid and Open-Pollinated Seeds during a Period of Technological Transformation, 1933-1955

Keith Meyers and Paul Rhode

27290: Consumption Insurance in Networks with Asymmetric Information

Orazio Attanasio and Sonya Krutikova

27289: Epidemic Responses Under Uncertainty

Michael Barnett, Greg Buchak and Constantine Yannelis

27288: Disguising Prejudice: Popular Rationales as Excuses for Intolerant Expression

Leonardo Bursztyn, Ingar Haaland, Aakaash Rao and Christopher Roth

27287: Spatial Economics for Granular Settings

Jonathan Dingel and Felix Tintelnot

27286: Demand-Side Constraints in Development: The Role of Market Size, Trade, and (In)Equality

Pinelopi Goldberg and Tristan Reed

27285: The Environmental Benefits from Transportation Electrification: Urban Buses

Stephen Holland, Erin Mansur, Nicholas Muller and Andrew Yates

27284: What’s Driving Entrepreneurship and Innovation in the Transport Sector?

Derrick Choe, Alexander Oettl and Robert Seamans

27283: Belief Overreaction and Stock Market Puzzles

Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Rafael La Porta and Andrei Shleifer

27282: India's Lockdown: An Interim Report

Debraj Ray and S. Subramanian

27281: Nonlinear Production Networks with an Application to the Covid-19 Crisis

David Baqaee and Emmanuel Farhi

27280: Effects of Social Distancing Policy on Labor Market Outcomes

Sumedha Gupta, Laura Montenovo, Thuy D. Nguyen, Felipe Lozano Rojas, Ian Schmutte, Kosali Simon, Bruce Weinberg and Coady Wing

27279: Post-9/11 War Deployments Increased Crime among Veterans

Resul Cesur, Joseph J. Sabia and Erdal Tekin

27278: Flying or Trapped?

Yunfang Hu, Takuma Kunieda, Kazuo Nishimura and Ping Wang

27277: Divided We Stay Home: Social Distancing and Ethnic Diversity

Georgy Egorov, Ruben Enikolopov, Alexey Makarin and Maria Petrova

27276: The Welfare Cost of a Current Account Imbalance: A "Clean" Effect

Jungho Lee, Shang-Jin Wei and Jianhuan Xu

27275: Deadly Debt Crises: COVID-19 in Emerging Markets

Cristina Arellano, Yan Bai and Gabriel Mihalache

27274: How to Get Away with Merger: Stealth Consolidation and Its Effects on US Healthcare

Thomas G. Wollmann

27273: How Should Policy Responses to the COVID-19 Pandemic Differ in the Developing World?

Titan Alon, Minki Kim, David Lagakos and Mitchell VanVuren

27272: Inside the Mind of a Stock Market Crash

Stefano Giglio, Matteo Maggiori, Johannes Stroebel and Stephen Utkus

27271: Subjective Expectations and Demand for Contraception

Grant Miller, Aureo de Paula and Christine Valente

27270: Common Practice: Spillovers from Medicare on Private Health Care

Michael L. Barnett, Andrew Olenski and Adam Sacarny

27269: Measuring the Effect of Student Loans on College Persistence

David Card and Alex Solis

27268: The Great Migration of Black Americans from the US South: A Guide and Interpretation

William Collins

27267: Dying to Work: Effects of Unemployment Insurance on Health

Alexander Ahammer and Analisa Packham

27266: Reconstructing the Yield Curve

Yan Liu and Jing Cynthia Wu

27265: Framing, Information, and Welfare

Andrew Caplin and Daniel Martin

27264: COVID-19 Doesn't Need Lockdowns to Destroy Jobs: The Effect of Local Outbreaks in Korea

Sangmin Aum, Sang Yoon (Tim) Lee and Yongseok Shin

27263: Breaking Routine for Energy Savings: An Appliance-level Analysis of Small Business Behavior under Dynamic Prices

Jiyong Eom and Frank A. Wolak

27262: Simplified Electricity Market Models with Significant Intermittent Renewable Capacity: Evidence from Italy

Christoph Graf, Federico Quaglia and Frank A. Wolak

27261: Building Better Retirement Systems in the Wake of the Global Pandemic

Olivia Mitchell

27260: An Experimental Comparison of Carbon Pricing Under Uncertainty in Electricity Markets

Trevor L. Davis, Mark C. Thurber and Frank A. Wolak

27259: Measuring the Spatial Distribution of Health Rankings in the United States

Will Davis, Zander Gordan and Rusty Tchernis

27258: Bank Market Power and Monetary Policy Transmission: Evidence from a Structural Estimation

Yifei Wang, Toni Whited, Yufeng Wu and Kairong Xiao

27257: Robust Identification of Investor Beliefs

Xiaohong Chen, Lars Hansen and Peter G. Hansen

27256: Banks as Lenders of First Resort: Evidence from the COVID-19 Crisis

Lei Li, Philip E. Strahan and Song Zhang

27255: Retaliatory Use of Public Standards in Trade

Kjersti Nes and K Aleks Schaefer

27254: Transportation Infrastructure in the US

Gilles Duranton, Geetika Nagpal and Matthew Turner

27253: Competition Laws and Corporate Innovation

Ross Levine, Chen Lin, Lai Wei and Wensi Xie

27252: Are Trade Agreements Good For You?

Giovanni Maggi and Ralph Ossa

27251: Cost Saving and the Freezing of Corporate Pension Plans

Joshua Rauh, Irina Stefanescu and Stephen Zeldes

27250: Research Registries: Facts, Myths, and Possible Improvements

Eliot Abrams, Jonathan Libgober and John List

27249: COVID-19 and Implications for Automation

Alex Chernoff and Casey Warman

27248: Panel Forecasts of Country-Level Covid-19 Infections

Laura Liu, Hyungsik Roger Moon and Frank Schorfheide

27247: A Unifying Approach to Measuring Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation

Antonio Bento, Noah S. Miller, Mehreen Mookerjee and Edson Severnini

27246: The Impacts of COVID-19 on Minority Unemployment: First Evidence from April 2020 CPS Microdata

Robert Fairlie, Kenneth Couch and Huanan Xu

27245: Fatalism, Beliefs, and Behaviors During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Jesper Akesson, Sam Ashworth-Hayes, Robert Hahn, Robert Metcalfe and Itzhak Rasooly

27244: Reopening Scenarios

David Baqaee, Emmanuel Farhi, Michael J. Mina and James Stock

27243: The Adverse Effect of the COVID-19 Labor Market Shock on Immigrant Employment

George Borjas and Hugh Cassidy

27242: Sufficient Statistics Revisited

Henrik Kleven

27241: Human Capital Investment in the Presence of Child Labor

Natalie Bau, Martin Rotemberg, Manisha Shah and Bryce Steinberg

27240: Persistent Effects of Violent Media Content

Jason Lindo, Isaac D. Swensen and Glen Waddell

27239: DEglobalizaion and Social Safety Nets in Post-Covid-19 Era: Textbook Macroeconomic Analysis

Assaf Razin, Efraim Sadka and Alexander Schwemmer

27238: The Seeds of Ideology: Historical Immigration and Political Preferences in the United States

Paola Giuliano and Marco Tabellini

27237: The Persuasive Effect of Fox News: Non-Compliance with Social Distancing During the Covid-19 Pandemic

Andrey Simonov, Szymon Sacher, Jean-Pierre H. Dubé and Shirsho Biswas

27236: Mobility Zones

Ferdinando Monte

27235: Impacts of State Reopening Policy on Human Mobility

Thuy D. Nguyen, Sumedha Gupta, Martin Andersen, Ana Bento, Kosali Simon and Coady Wing

27234: Why Has the US Economy Recovered So Consistently from Every Recession in the Past 70 Years?

Robert Hall and Marianna Kudlyak

27233: Three Myths about Federal Regulation

Patrick A. McLaughlin and Casey Mulligan

27232: The Hammer and the Scalpel: On the Economics of Indiscriminate versus Targeted Isolation Policies during Pandemics

Varadarajan Chari, Rishabh Kirpalani and Christopher Phelan

27231: The Term Structure of Covered Interest Rate Parity Violations

Patrick Augustin, Mikhail Chernov, Lukas Schmid and Dongho Song

27230: Spatial Misallocation in Chinese Housing and Land Markets

Yongheng Deng, Yang Tang, Ping Wang and Jing Wu

27229: Were Urban Cowboys Enough to Control COVID-19? Local Shelter-in-Place Orders and Coronavirus Case Growth

Dhaval Dave, Andrew Friedson, Kyutaro Matsuzawa, Joseph J. Sabia and Samuel Safford

27228: The Macroeconomics of a Pandemic: A Minimalist Model

Luis Cespedes, Roberto Chang and Andrés Velasco