NBER Working Papers

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27411: Financial Vulnerability and Risks to Growth in Emerging Markets

Viral Acharya, Soumya Bhadury and Jay Surti

27410: Biases in Long-Horizon Predictive Regressions

Jacob Boudoukh, Ronen Israel and Matthew P. Richardson

27409: Salience and Taxation with Imperfect Competition

Kory Kroft, Jean-William Laliberté, René Leal-Vizcaíno and Matthew Notowidigdo

27408: Black Lives Matter Protests and Risk Avoidance: The Case of Civil Unrest During a Pandemic

Dhaval Dave, Andrew Friedson, Kyutaro Matsuzawa, Joseph J. Sabia and Samuel Safford

27407: Racial Disparity in COVID-19 Deaths: Seeking Economic Roots with Census data

John McLaren

27406: Belief Distortions and Macroeconomic Fluctuations

Francesco Bianchi, Sydney Ludvigson and Sai Ma

27405: The Effect of Price on Firm Reputation

Michael Luca and Oren Reshef

27404: From Imitation to Innovation: Where Is all that Chinese R&D Going?

Michael König, Zheng Michael Song, Kjetil Storesletten and Fabrizio Zilibotti

27403: The Economics of Sovereign Debt, Bailouts and the Eurozone Crisis

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Philippe Martin and Todd E. Messer

27402: Which Investors Matter for Equity Valuations and Expected Returns?

Ralph Koijen, Robert Richmond and Motohiro Yogo

27401: The Political Scar of Epidemics

Barry Eichengreen, Orkun Saka and Cevat Giray Aksoy

27400: Economic Crisis, General Laws, and the Mid-Nineteenth-Century Transformation of American Political Economy

Naomi R. Lamoreaux and John Joseph Wallis

27399: Managing Households' Expectations with Unconventional Policies

Francesco D’Acunto, Daniel Hoang and Michael Weber

27398: The Growth of Nations Revisited: Global Environmental Accounting from 1998 to 2018

Aniruddh Mohan, Nicholas Muller, Akshay Thyagarajan, Randall V. Martin, Melanie S. Hammer and Aaron van Donkelaar

27397: What Accounts for the Rising Share of Women in the Top 1%?

Richard Burkhauser, Nicolas Hérault, Stephen Jenkins and Roger Wilkins

27396: Predictable Financial Crises

Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, Andrei Shleifer and Jakob Ahm Sørensen

27395: Aggregate Effects from Public Works: Evidence from India

Justin Cook and Manisha Shah

27394: Measuring Labor-Force Participation and the Incidence and Duration of Unemployment

Hie Joo Ahn and James D. Hamilton

27393: Social Distancing and Social Capital: Why U.S. Counties Respond Differently to COVID-19

Wenzhi Ding, Ross Levine, Chen Lin and Wensi Xie

27392: The Impact of COVID-19 on Student Experiences and Expectations: Evidence from a Survey

Esteban Aucejo, Jacob F. French, Maria Paola Ugalde Araya and Basit Zafar

27391: What Does and Does Not Correlate with COVID-19 Death Rates

Christopher Knittel and Bora Ozaltun

27390: Within-Job Wage Inequality: Performance Pay and Job Relatedness

Rongsheng Tang, Yang Tang and Ping Wang

27389: Dynamics of Markups, Concentration and Product Span

Elhanan Helpman and Benjamin C. Niswonger

27388: Principal Portfolios

Bryan T. Kelly, Semyon Malamud and Lasse Pedersen

27387: Coronavirus: Impact on Stock Prices and Growth Expectations

Niels Gormsen and Ralph Koijen

27386: Gains from wage Flexibility and the Zero Lower Bound

Roberto Billi and Jordi Galí

27385: Insider-Outsider Labor Markets, Hysteresis and Monetary Policy

Jordi Galí

27384: Does Policy Communication During Covid Work?

Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Michael Weber

27383: China’s Import Demand for Agricultural Products: The Impact of the Phase One Trade Agreement

Robert Feenstra and Chang Hong

27382: The Effectiveness of Life-Preserving Investments in Times of COVID-19

Jules van Binsbergen and Christian Opp

27381: Default Options and Insurance Demand

Peter John Robinson, Wouter Botzen, Howard Kunreuther and Shereen J. Chaudhry

27380: Reconsidering Returns

Samuel M. Hartzmark and David H. Solomon

27379: Enabling Entrepreneurial Choice

Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans and Scott Stern

27378: Socio-Demographic Factors Associated with Self-Protecting Behavior during the Covid-19 Pandemic

Nicholas Papageorge, Matthew V. Zahn, Michèle Belot, Eline van den Broek-Altenburg, Syngjoo Choi, Julian C. Jamison and Egon Tripodi

27377: Can Greater Access to Education Be Inequitable? New Evidence from India’s Right to Education Act

Chirantan Chatterjee, Eric A. Hanushek and Shreekanth Mahendiran

27376: Bank Heterogeneity and Financial Stability

Itay Goldstein, Alexandr Kopytov, Lin Shen and Haotian Xiang

27375: America, Jump-started: World War II R&D and the Takeoff of the U.S. Innovation System

Daniel Gross and Bhaven N. Sampat

27374: Socioeconomic Network Heterogeneity and Pandemic Policy Response

Mohammad Akbarpour, Cody Cook, Aude Marzuoli, Simon Mongey, Abhishek Nagaraj, Matteo Saccarola, Pietro Tebaldi, Shoshana Vasserman and Hanbin Yang

27373: Implications of Heterogeneous SIR Models for Analyses of COVID-19

Glenn Ellison

27372: Leaving the Enclave: Historical Evidence on Immigrant Mobility from the Industrial Removal Office

Ran Abramitzky, Leah Boustan and Dylan Connor

27371: The Micro and Macro Dynamics of Capital Flows

Felipe Saffie, Liliana Varela and Kei-Mu Yi

27370: Global Capital and Local Assets: House Prices, Quantities, and Elasticities

Caitlin S. Gorback and Benjamin Keys

27369: Incorporating Scenario Analysis into the Federal Reserve’s Policy Strategy and Communications

Michael Bordo, Andrew Levin and Mickey D. Levy

27368: How Much Should we Trust Estimates of Firm Effects and Worker Sorting?

Stéphane Bonhomme, Kerstin Holzheu, Thibaut Lamadon, Elena Manresa, Magne Mogstad and Bradley Setzler

27367: Duration-Based Stock Valuation: Reassessing Stock Market Performance and Volatility

Jules van Binsbergen

27366: Inequality, Fiscal Policy and COVID19 Restrictions in a Demand-Determined Economy

Alan Auerbach, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Daniel Murphy

27365: Global Lessons from Climate Change Legislation and Litigation

Shaikh Eskander, Sam Fankhauser and Joana Setzer

27364: Building Resilient Health Systems: Experimental Evidence from Sierra Leone and the 2014 Ebola Outbreak

Darin Christensen, Oeindrila Dube, Johannes Haushofer, Bilal Siddiqi and Maarten Voors

27363: Tax Policy and Abnormal Investment Behavior

Qiping Xu and Eric Zwick

27362: Determinants of Small Business Reopening Decisions After COVID Restrictions Were Lifted

Dylan Balla-Elliott, Zoë B. Cullen, Edward Glaeser, Michael Luca and Christopher T. Stanton

27361: To Pool or Not to Pool? Security Design in OTC Markets

Vincent Glode, Christian Opp and Ruslan Sverchkov

27360: EMEs and COVID-19: Shutting Down in a World of Informal and Tiny Firms

Laura Alfaro, Oscar Becerra and Marcela Eslava

27359: Gender Differences in COVID-19 Related Attitudes and Behavior: Evidence from a Panel Survey in Eight OECD Countries

Vincenzo Galasso, Vincent Pons, Paola Profeta, Michael Becher, Sylvain Brouard and Martial Foucault

27358: The Effect of Foreclosures on Homeowners, Tenants, and Landlords

Rebecca Diamond, Adam Guren and Rose Tan

27357: Geographic and Socioeconomic Heterogeneity in the Benefits of Reducing Air Pollution in the United States

Tatyana Deryugina, Nolan H. Miller, David Molitor and Julian Reif

27356: The Impacts of a Prototypical Home Visiting Program on Child Skills

James J. Heckman, Bei Liu, Mai Lu and Jin Zhou

27355: Corporate Bond Liquidity During the COVID-19 Crisis

Mahyar Kargar, Benjamin Lester, David Lindsay, Shuo Liu, Pierre-Olivier Weill and Diego Zúñiga

27354: The search theory of OTC markets

Pierre-Olivier Weill

27353: Corporate Culture as a Theory of the Firm

Gary Gorton and Alexander K. Zentefis

27352: Inflation with Covid Consumption Baskets

Alberto Cavallo

27351: Universal Basic Income: A Dynamic Assessment

Diego Daruich and Raquel Fernandez

27350: Global Trade and Margins of Productivity in Agriculture

Farid Farrokhi and Heitor Pellegrina

27349: How and When to Use the Political Cycle to Identify Advertising Effects

Sarah Moshary, Bradley T. Shapiro and Jihong Song

27348: Old Age Risks, Consumption, and Insurance

Richard Blundell, Margherita Borella, Jeanne Commault and Mariacristina De Nardi

27347: Deciphering the Macroeconomic Effects of Internal Devaluations in a Monetary Union

Javier Andrés, Oscar Arce, Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde and Samuel Hurtado

27346: Information and the Acquisition of Social Network Connections

Toman Barsbai, Victoria Licuanan, Andreas Steinmayr, Erwin Tiongson and Dean Yang

27345: The Rise of US Earnings Inequality: Does the Cycle Drive the Trend?

Jonathan Heathcote, Fabrizio Perri and Giovanni Violante

27344: COVID-19 and Remote Work: An Early Look at US Data

Erik Brynjolfsson, John J. Horton, Adam Ozimek, Daniel Rock, Garima Sharma and Hong-Yi TuYe

27343: Coping with Disasters: Two Centuries of International Official Lending

Sebastian Horn, Carmen Reinhart and Christoph Trebesch

27342: Exchange Rates and Asset Prices in a Global Demand System

Ralph Koijen and Motohiro Yogo

27341: Searching for Approval

Sumit Agarwal, John Grigsby, Ali Hortaçsu, Gregor Matvos, Amit Seru and Vincent Yao

27340: Trading Off Consumption and COVID-19 Deaths

Robert E. Hall, Charles Jones and Peter J. Klenow

27339: An Event Study of COVID-19 Central Bank Quantitative Easing in Advanced and Emerging Economies

Alessandro Rebucci, Jonathan S. Hartley and Daniel Jiménez

27338: Concentration and Agglomeration of IT Innovation and Entrepreneurship: Evidence from Patenting

Chris Forman and Avi Goldfarb

27337: Party On: The Labor Market Returns to Social Networks in Adolescence

Adriana Lleras-Muney, Matthew Miller, Shuyang Sheng and Veronica Sovero

27336: Sibling Correlation in Educational Attainment: A Test of Genetic Nurture

John Cawley, Euna Han, Jiyoon Kim and Edward Norton

27335: Estimating and Forecasting Disease Scenarios for COVID-19 with an SIR Model

Andrew Atkeson, Karen Kopecky and Tao Zha

27334: Cities and Smoking

Michael Darden

27333: Temperature, Disease, and Death in London: Analyzing Weekly Data for the Century from 1866-1965

W Hanlon, Casper Worm Hansen and Jake W. Kantor

27332: The Great Disconnect: The Decoupling of Wage and Price Inflation in Japan

Takeo Hoshi and Anil Kashyap

27331: Why Didn't the College Premium Rise Everywhere? Employment Protection and On-the-Job Investment in Skills

Matthias Doepke and Ruben Gaetani

27330: Working Remotely and the Supply-side Impact of Covid-19

Dimitris Papanikolaou and Lawrence D.W. Schmidt

27329: Understanding Spatial Variation in COVID-19 across the United States

Klaus Desmet and Romain Wacziarg

27328: Taxes and the Revaluation of Household Wealth

Edward N. Wolff

27327: Belief Elicitation: Limiting Truth Telling with Information on Incentives

David Danz, Lise Vesterlund and Alistair Wilson

27326: Holiday, Just One Day Out of Life: Birth Timing and Post-natal Outcomes

Mireille Jacobson, Maria Kogelnik and Heather Royer

27325: Imperfect Competition and Rents in Labor and Product Markets: The Case of the Construction Industry

Kory Kroft, Yao Luo, Magne Mogstad and Bradley Setzler

27324: Policing the Police: The Impact of "Pattern-or-Practice" Investigations on Crime

Tanaya Devi and Roland Fryer

27323: Reserve Accumulation, Macroeconomic Stabilization, and Sovereign Risk

Javier Bianchi and César Sosa-Padilla

27322: Are the Effects of Adoption and Termination of Shelter-in-Place Orders Symmetric? Evidence from a Natural Experiment

Dhaval Dave, Andrew Friedson, Kyutaro Matsuzawa, Drew McNichols and Joseph J. Sabia

27321: The Employment Impact of Green Fiscal Push: Evidence from the American Recovery Act

David Popp, Francesco Vona, Giovanni Marin and Ziqiao Chen

27320: Civic Capital and Social Distancing during the Covid-19 Pandemic

John Barrios, Efraim Benmelech, Yael V. Hochberg, Paola Sapienza and Luigi Zingales

27319: Broad Bracketing for Low Probability Events

Shereen J. Chaudhry, Michael Hand and Howard Kunreuther

27318: Gender Differences in Negotiation: Evidence from Real Estate Transactions

Steffen Andersen, Julie Marx, Kasper Meisner Nielsen and Lise Vesterlund

27317: No Firm is an Island? How Industry Conditions Shape Firms' Aggregate Expectations

Philippe Andrade, Olivier Coibion, Erwan Gautier and Yuriy Gorodnichenko

27316: Weak Credit Covenants

Victoria Ivashina and Boris Vallee

27315: Short-run Effects of COVID-19 on U.S. Worker Transitions

Benjamin Cowan

27314: Does Poverty Change Labor Supply? Evidence from Multiple Income Effects and 115,579 Bags

Abhijit Banerjee, Dean Karlan, Hannah Trachtman and Christopher Udry

27313: Monetary Policy with Opinionated Markets

Ricardo Caballero and Alp Simsek

27312: My Professor Cares: Experimental Evidence on the Role of Faculty Engagement

Scott Carrell and Michal Kurlaender