NBER Working Papers

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27962: Sparse Network Asymptotics for Logistic Regression under Possible Misspecification

Bryan Graham

27961: Elections, Political Polarization, and Economic Uncertainty

Scott Baker, Aniket Baksy, Nicholas Bloom, Steven Davis and Jonathan A. Rodden

27960: Efficiency Wages, Unemployment, and Environmental Policy

Garth Heutel and Xin Zhang

27959: Liquidity and Volatility

Itamar Drechsler, Alan Moreira and Alexi Savov

27958: Bottom-up Markup Fluctuations

Ariel Burstein, Vasco Carvalho and Basile Grassi

27957: Offshoring and Inflation

Diego Comin and Robert Johnson

27956: (S)Cars and the Great Recession

Orazio Attanasio, Kieran Larkin, Morten Ravn and Mario Padula

27955: Misallocation and Capital Market Integration: Evidence From India

Natalie Bau and Adrien Matray

27954: Economic Adjustment during the Great Recession: The Role of Managerial Quality

Gilbert Cette, Jimmy Lopez, Jacques Mairesse and Giuseppe Nicoletti

27953: Externalities as Arbitrage

Benjamin Hebert

27952: How Do CEOs Make Strategy?

Mu-Jeung Yang, Michael Christensen, Nicholas Bloom, Raffaella Sadun and Jan Rivkin

27951: Uncertainty, Wages, and the Business Cycle

Matteo Cacciatore and Federico Ravenna

27950: How to Talk When a Machine is Listening?: Corporate Disclosure in the Age of AI

Sean Cao, Wei Jiang, Baozhong Yang and Alan Zhang

27949: The Political Economics of Non-democracy

Georgy Egorov and Konstantin Sonin

27948: Moneyball in Medicare: Heterogeneous Treatment Effects

Edward Norton, Emily J. Lawton and Jun Li

27947: Overreaction and Working Memory

Hassan Afrouzi, Spencer Yongwook Kwon, Augustin Landier, Yueran Ma and David Thesmar

27946: Estimating the Costs of Filing Tax Returns and the Potential Savings from Policies Aimed at Reducing These Costs

Youssef Benzarti

27945: Bank Liquidity Provision Across the Firm Size Distribution

Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, Olivier Darmouni, Stephan Luck and Matthew Plosser

27944: Temptation and Commitment: A Model of Hand-to-Mouth Behavior

Orazio Attanasio, Agnes Kovacs and Patrick Moran

27943: Medical Research and Health Care Finance: Evidence from Academic Medical Centers

Pierre Azoulay, Misty Heggeness and Jennifer L. Kao

27942: Have Exchange-Listed Firms Become Less Important for the Economy?

Frederik Schlingemann and René M. Stulz

27941: A Theory of Voluntary Testing and Self-isolation in an Ongoing Pandemic

Thomas Hellmann and Veikko Thiele

27940: Who Benefits From the Child Tax Credit?

Jacob Goldin and Katherine Michelmore

27939: Corporate Taxation and the Distribution of Income

James Hines

27938: Highways and Globalization

Taylor Jaworski, Carl Kitchens and Sergey Nigai

27937: Powering Work from Home

Steve Cicala

27936: The Effects of the Affordable Care Act on the Near-Elderly: Evidence for Health Insurance Coverage and Labor Market Outcomes

Mark Duggan, Gopi Goda and Gina Li

27935: A Q-Theory of Banks

Juliane Begenau, Saki Bigio, Jeremy Majerovitz and Matias Vieyra

27934: Firm Dynamics and Trade

George Alessandria, Costas Arkolakis and Kim Ruhl

27933: Teenage Driving, Mortality, and Risky Behaviors

Jason Huh and Julian Reif

27932: Did COVID-19 Market Disruptions Disrupt Food Security? Evidence from Households in Rural Liberia and Malawi

Shilpa Aggarwal, Dahyeon Jeong, Naresh Kumar, David Sungho Park, Jonathan Robinson and Alan Spearot

27931: A q Theory of Internal Capital Markets

Min Dai, Xavier Giroud, Wei Jiang and Neng Wang

27930: Neglected No More: Housing Markets, Mortgage Lending, and Sea Level Rise

Benjamin Keys and Philip Mulder

27929: De-globalization: Driven by Global Crises?

Assaf Razin

27928: City Limits: What do Local-Area Minimum Wages Do?

Arindrajit Dube and Attila S. Lindner

27927: Capital Flows in Risky Times: Risk-on/Risk-off and Emerging Market Tail Risk

Anusha Chari, Karlye Dilts Stedman and Christian Lundblad

27926: Dominant Currencies: How Firms Choose Currency Invoicing and Why it Matters

Mary Amiti, Oleg Itskhoki and Jozef Konings

27925: Human Capital Depreciation and Returns to Experience

Michael Dinerstein, Rigissa Megalokonomou and Constantine Yannelis

27924: Temporary Unemployment and Labor Market Dynamics During the COVID-19 Recession

Jessica Gallant, Kory Kroft, Fabian Lange and Matthew Notowidigdo

27923: Optimal Foreign Reserves and Central Bank Policy Under Financial Stress

Luis Cespedes and Roberto Chang

27922: The Rise of Income and Wealth Inequality in America: Evidence from Distributional Macroeconomic Accounts

Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman

27921: Trends in US Income and Wealth Inequality: Revising After the Revisionists

Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman

27920: Anxiety or Pain? The Impact of Tariffs and Uncertainty on Chinese Firms in the Trade War

Felipe Benguria, Jaerim Choi, Deborah Swenson and Mingzhi (Jimmy) Xu

27919: The Rise and Fall of Import Substitution

Douglas Irwin

27918: Ethnographic and Field Data in Historical Economics

Sara Lowes

27917: The Micro Anatomy of Macro Consumption Adjustments

Rafael Guntin, Pablo Ottonello and Diego Perez

27916: Research Funding and Collaboration

Benjamin Davies, Jason Gush, Shaun C. Hendy and Adam Jaffe

27915: Firm-Embedded Productivity and Cross-Country Income Differences

Vanessa Alviarez, Javier Cravino and Natalia Ramondo

27914: The Domestic Political-Economy of the WTO Crisis: Lessons for Preserving Multilateralism

T. Renee Bowen and J. Lawrence Broz

27913: Introducing CogX: A New Preschool Education Program Combining Parent and Child Interventions

Roland Fryer, Steven Levitt, John List and Anya Samek

27912: Liquidity Requirements, Free-Riding, and the Implications for Financial Stability Evidence from the early 1900s

Mark Carlson and Matthew Jaremski

27911: Covid-19 and the U.S. Safety Net

Robert Moffitt and James Ziliak

27910: Firm Input Choice Under Trade Policy Uncertainty

Kyle Handley, Nuno Limão, Rodney Ludema and Zhi Yu

27909: The World War II Crisis Innovation Model: What Was It, and Where Does It Apply?

Daniel Gross and Bhaven Sampat

27908: Who Should Work from Home during a Pandemic? The Wage-Infection Trade-off

Sangmin Aum, Sang Yoon (Tim) Lee and Yongseok Shin

27907: Flight to Safety: How Economic Downturns Affect Talent Flows to Startups

Shai Bernstein, Richard R. Townsend and Ting Xu

27906: A Helicopter Tour of Some Underlying Issues In Empirical Industrial Organization

Ariel Pakes

27905: Trade with Nominal Rigidities: Understanding the Unemployment and Welfare Effects of the China Shock

Andres Rodriguez-Clare, Mauricio Ulate and Jose Vasquez

27904: Distance, Empire, and British Exports Over Two Centuries

David Jacks, Kevin O'Rourke, Alan Taylor and Yoto Yotov

27903: Emerging Markets Sovereign CDS Spreads During COVID-19: Economics versus Epidemiology News

Timo Daehler, Joshua Aizenman and Yothin Jinjarak

27902: Public Policy and Participation in Political Interest Groups: An Analysis of Minimum Wages, Labor Unions, and Effective Advocacy

Jeffrey Clemens and Michael Strain

27901: Global Financial Cycle and Liquidity Management

Olivier Jeanne and Damiano Sandri

27900: Deterrence Effects of Antifraud and Abuse Enforcement in Health Care

David H. Howard and Ian McCarthy

27899: Wealth Transfers and Net Wealth at Death: Evidence from the Italian Inheritance Tax Records 1995–2016

Paolo Acciari and Salvatore Morelli

27898: Monetary Policy Cooperation/Coordination and Global Financial Crises in Historical Perspective

Michael Bordo

27897: Digital Messaging to Improve College Enrollment and Success

Christopher Avery, Ben Castleman, Michael Hurwitz, Bridget Long and Lindsay C. Page

27896: Measuring the Effects of Firm Uncertainty on Economic Activity: New Evidence from One Million Documents

Kyle Handley and J. Frank Li

27895: Discovering Treatment Effectiveness via Median Treatment Effects—Applications to COVID-19 Clinical Trials

John Mullahy

27894: Flexible Wages, Bargaining, and the Gender Gap

Barbara Biasi and Heather Sarsons

27893: Concessions, Violence, and Indirect Rule: Evidence from the Congo Free State

Sara Lowes and Eduardo Montero

27892: The Global Factor Structure of Exchange Rates

Sofonias Korsaye, Fabio Trojani and Andrea Vedolin

27891: Face Masks, Public Policies and Slowing the Spread of COVID-19: Evidence from Canada

Alexander Karaivanov, Shih En Lu, Hitoshi Shigeoka, Cong Chen and Stephanie Pamplona

27890: Rules vs. Discretion: Treatment of Mental Illness in U.S. Adolescents

Emily Cuddy and Janet Currie

27889: Private Equity and COVID-19

Paul Gompers, Steven N. Kaplan and Vladimir Mukharlyamov

27888: Calculating DAF Payout and What We Learn When We Do It Correctly

James Andreoni and Ray Madoff

27887: When Information is Not Enough: Evidence from a Centralized School Choice System

Kehinde Ajayi, Willa Friedman and Adrienne Lucas

27886: The Unemployed With Jobs and Without Jobs

Robert Hall and Marianna Kudlyak

27885: State Investment in Higher Education: Effects on Human Capital Formation, Student Debt, and Long-term Financial Outcomes of Students

Rajashri Chakrabarti, Nicole Gorton and Michael Lovenheim

27884: The Effects of Government Licensing on E-commerce: Evidence from Alibaba

Ginger Zhe Jin, Zhentong Lu, Xiaolu Zhou and Chunxiao Li

27883: Renegotiation in Debt Chains

Vincent Glode and Christian Opp

27882: A Cost/Benefit Analysis of Clinical Trial Designs for COVID-19 Vaccine Candidates

Donald A. Berry, Scott Berry, Peter Hale, Leah Isakov, Andrew Lo, Kien Wei Siah and Chi Heem Wong

27881: The Distribution of COVID-19 Related Risks

Patrick Baylis, Pierre-Loup Beauregard, Marie Connolly, Nicole Fortin, David Green, Pablo Gutierrez Cubillos, Sam Gyetvay, Catherine Haeck, Timea Laura Molnar, Gaëlle Simard-Duplain, Henry Siu, Maria teNyenhuis and Casey Warman

27880: Incentivizing Negative Emissions Through Carbon Shares

Derek Lemoine

27879: Using Satellite Imagery to Understand and Promote Sustainable Development

Marshall Burke, Anne Driscoll, David Lobell and Stefano Ermon

27878: A Toolkit for Solving Models with a Lower Bound on Interest Rates of Stochastic Duration

Gauti Eggertsson, Sergey Egiev, Alessandro Lin, Josef Platzer and Luca Riva

27877: SME Failures Under Large Liquidity Shocks: An Application to the COVID-19 Crisis

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Veronika Penciakova and Nick Sander

27876: Modeling the Consumption Response to the CARES Act

Christopher Carroll, Edmund Crawley, Jiri Slacalek and Matthew White

27875: Nudging Timely Wage Reporting: Field Experimental Evidence from the United States Social Supplementary Income Program

C. Yiwei Zhang, Jeffrey Hemmeter, Judd B. Kessler, Robert Metcalfe and Robert Weathers

27874: Opening the Door: Immigrant Legalization and Family Reunification in the United States

Elizabeth Cascio and Ethan Lewis

27873: The International Propagation of Economic Downturns Through Multinational Companies: The Real Economy Channel

Jan Bena, Serdar Dinc and Isil Erel

27872: A Theory of Foreign Exchange Interventions

Sebastian Fanelli and Ludwig Straub

27871: Impediments to the Schumpeterian Process in the Replacement of Large Firms

Mara Faccio and John J. McConnell

27870: Long-run Returns to Private Equity in Emerging Markets

Shawn Cole, Martin Melecký, Florian Mölders and Tristan Reed

27869: Is the Selfish Life-Cycle Model More Applicable in Japan and, If So, Why? A Literature Survey

Charles Horioka

27868: Health Insurance Menu Design for Large Employers

Kate Ho and Robin Lee

27867: Firm-Level Risk Exposures and Stock Returns in the Wake of COVID-19

Steven Davis, Stephen Hansen and Cristhian Seminario-Amez

27866: The Wisdom of the Robinhood Crowd

Ivo Welch

27865: COVID-19 Changed Tastes for Safety-Net Programs

Alex Rees-Jones, John D'Attoma, Amedeo Piolatto and Luca Salvadori

27864: Cross-Sectional Uncertainty and the Business Cycle: Evidence from 40 Years of Options Data

Ian Dew-Becker and Stefano Giglio

27863: A Calculation of the Social Returns to Innovation

Benjamin Jones and Lawrence Summers