NBER Working Papers

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1206: Economic Development, Infant Mortality, and Their Dynamics in Latin America

Tadashi Yamada

1205: A Test of Portfolio Crowding-Out and Related Issues in Finance

Jeffrey Frankel

1204: Rewards to Continued Work: The Economic Incentives For Postponing Retirement

Olivia Mitchell and Gary Fields

1203: A Simple Account of the Behavior of Long-Term Interest Rates

John Campbell and Robert J. Shiller

1202: Forecasting and Conditional Projection Using Realistic Prior Distributions

Tom Doan, Robert Litterman and Christopher A. Sims

1201: Average Marginal Tax Rates U.S. Household Interest and Dividend Income 1954-80

Arturo Estrella and Jeffrey Fuhrer

1200: Accumulation of Property by Southern Blacks Before World War I: Commentand Further Evidence

Robert Margo

1199: Slipping into and out of Poverty: The Dynamics of Spells

Mary Jo Bane and David T. Ellwood

1198: A Technique for Indicating Comparative and Perdicting Changes in Trade Ratios

Robert Baldwin and R. Spence Hilton

1197: The Profitability of Currency Speculation

John Bilson and David A. Hsieh

1196: Optimal and Time Consistent Exchange Rate Management in an Overlapping Generations Economy

Jonathan Eaton

1195: Activist Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Overshooting: The Deutsche Mark/Dollar Rate

David Papell

1194: A 'Reciprocal Dumping' Model of International Trade

James Brander and Paul Krugman

1193: Trade Warfare: Tariffs and Cartels

James Brander and Barbara J. Spencer

1192: International R&D Rivalry and Industrial Strategy

Barbara J. Spencer and James Brander

1191: Years of Service and Probability of Promotion

Katharine Abraham and James Medoff

1190: The Economy of Israel

Stanley Fischer

1189: Theoretical Issues in International Borrowing

Jeffrey Sachs

1188: The Spatial Mismatch Hypothesis: Are There Teenage Jobs Missing in the Ghetto?

David T. Ellwood

1187: Capital Controls and Covered Interest Parity

Takatoshi Ito

1186: Risk, Inflation, and the Stock Market

Robert Pindyck

1185: Stagflation and Productivity Decline in Canada, 1974-1982

John F. Helliwell

1184: Optimal Bond Trading with Personal Taxes: Implications for Bond Prices and Estimated Tax Brackets and Yield Curves

George Constantinides and Jonathan E. Ingersoll

1183: Arbitrator Decision Making: When Are Final Offers Important?

Max H. Bazerman and Henry S. Farber

1182: Macroeconomic Planning and Disequilibrium: Estimates for Poland, 1955-1980

Richard Portes, Richard E. Quandt, David Winter and Stephen Yeo

1181: Monetary Policy Regimes, Expected Inflation, and the Response of Interest Rates to Money Announcements

V. Vance Roley and Carl Walsh

1180: An Investigation of Risk and Return in Forward Foreign Exchange

Robert J. Hodrick and Sanjay Srivastava

1179: Public Sector Labor Markets

Ronald Ehrenberg and Joshua L. Schwarz

1178: A Model of Exchange-Rate Determination with Policy Reaction: Evidence From Monthly Data

William Branson

1177: A Theory of Current Account and Exchange Rate Determinations

Joshua Aizenman

1176: Optimal Stock Trading with Personal Taxes: Implications for Prices and the Abnormal January Returns

George Constantinides

1175: The Implications of an Endogenous Money Supply for Monetary Neutrality

Robert King and Bharat Trehan

1174: International Trade, Foreign Investment, and the Formation of the Entrepreneurial Class

Gene Grossman

1173: Exchange Rate Dynamics With Sluggish Prices Under Alternative Price-Adjustment Rules

Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff

1172: LDC's Foreign Borrowing and Default Risk: An Empirical Investigation

Sebastian Edwards

1171: Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction

Victor Zarnowitz and Louis A. Lambros

1170: Wage Indexation and Exchange Market Intervention in a Small Open Economy

Stephen J Turnovsky

1169: Changes in the Balance Sheet of the U.S. Manufacturing Sector, 1926-1977

John H. Ciccolo, Jr. and Christopher Baum

1168: Housing Tenure, Uncertainty, and Taxation

Harvey Rosen, Kenneth T. Rosen and Douglas Holtz-Eakin

1167: The Level and Volatility of Interest Rates in the United States: The Roles of Expected Inflation, Real Rates, and Taxes

John Makin and Vito Tanzi

1166: International Policy Coordination in a Dynamic Macroeconomic Model

Jeffrey Sachs

1165: The Equilibrium Approach to Labor Markets

Sherwin Rosen

1164: Unionism, Price-Cost Margins, and the Return to Capital

Richard Freeman

1163: Variable Earnings and Nonlinear Taxation

Michael Rothschild and Robert Moffitt

1162: On Low-Frequency Estimates of "Long-Run" Relationships in Macro- economics

Bennett McCallum

1161: Housing Subsidies: Effects on Housing Decisions, Efficiency, and Equity

Harvey Rosen

1160: A Linearized Version of Lucas's Neutrality Model

Bennett McCallum

1159: Case Mix, Costs, and Outcomes: Differences Between Faculty and Community Services in a University Hospital

Alan M. Garber, Victor Fuchs and James F. Silverman

1158: Raids and Imitation

Edward Lazear

1157: Financial Innovation and the Control of Monetary Aggregates: Some Evidence from Canada

Robert Lucas

1156: The Economics of Price Scissors

Raaj Kumar Sah and Joseph Stiglitz

1155: The Distributional Impact of Social Security

Michael D. Hurd and John B. Shoven

1154: Moral Hazard and Optimal Commodity Taxation

Richard Arnott and Joseph Stiglitz

1153: Inflation and Labor-Market Adjustment

Daniel S. Hamermesh

1152: The Dynamic Effects of Tax Law Asymmetries

Alan Auerbach

1151: Real Determinants of Corporate Leverage

Alan Auerbach

1150: Wage Contracts with Incomplete and Costly Information

Joshua Aizenman

1149: Models of Arbitrator Behavior: Theory and Evidence

Orley Ashenfelter and David E. Bloom

1148: Consumer Durables and the Real Interest Rate

N. Gregory Mankiw

1147: Inflexible Relative Prices and Price Level Inertia

Olivier Blanchard

1146: Life-Cycles in Income and Wealth

J. R. Kearl and Clayne L. Pope

1145: Investment Patterns and Financial Leverage

Michael S. Long and Ileen B. Malitz

1144: Shunto, Rational Expectations, and Output Growth in Japan

Herschel Grossman and William S. Haraf

1143: Contingent Claims Valuation of Corporate Liabilities: Theory and Empirical Tests

E. Philip Jones, Scott P. Mason and Eric Rosenfeld

1142: Debt and Equity Yields: 1926-80

Patric H. Hendershott and Roger D. Huang

1141: Why Are Real Interest Rates So High?

Zvi Bodie, Alex Kane and Robert L. McDonald

1140: What Are the Determinants of Delayed Childbearing and Permanent Childlessness in the United States?

David Bloom and James Trussell

1139: Unionization and Productivity in Office Building and School Construction

Steven Allen

1138: The Forward Exchange Market, Speculation, and Exchange Market Intervention

Jonathan Eaton and Stephen J Turnovsky

1137: Capital Structure Change and Decreases in Stockholders' Wealth: A Cross-Sectional Study of Convertible Security Calls

Wayne H. Mikkelson

1136: Right-to-Work Laws and the Extent of Unionization

Henry S. Farber

1135: A Model of Exchange-Rate Determination with Policy Reaction: Evidence from Monthly Data

William Branson

1134: The Changing Relationship Between Aggregate Price and Output: The British Experience

Richard T. Froyen and Roger Waud

1133: Seasonal Adjustment with Measurement Error Present

Jerry A. Hausman and Mark Watson

1132: The Effect of Risk on the Firm's Optimal Capital Stock: A Note

Kevin J. Maloney, William J. Marshall and Jess B. Yawitz

1131: Interpreting Ex-Dividend Evidence: The Citizens Utilities Case Reconsidered

James Poterba

1130: The Substitutability of Debt and Equity Securities

Benjamin M. Friedman

1129: Current Account Dynamics and the Terms of Trade: Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Two Generations Later

Torsten Persson and Lars E.O. Svensson

1128: The Economics of Retirement Behavior

Olivia Mitchell and Gary Fields

1127: Monetary Policy in the Large Open Economy

Michael Darby

1126: Incentive Effects of Pensions

Edward Lazear

1125: Defining a Unitary Business: An Economist's View

Charles E. McLure, Jr.

1124: Services in the Domestic Economy and in World Transactions

Irving B. Kravis

1123: Which Effective Tax Rate?

Don Fullerton

1122: The Present Value of Profits and Cyclical Movements in Investment

Andrew Abel and Olivier Blanchard

1121: Commodity Prices, Overshooting, Money Surprises, and Fed Credibility

Jeffrey Frankel and Gikas A. Hardouvelis

1120: International Balance of Payments Financing and Adjustment

Willem Buiter and Jonathan Eaton

1119: Supply Shocks, Wage Stickiness, and Accommodation

Stanley Fischer

1118: International Liquidity and Monetary Control

Jacob A. Frenkel

1117: Stabilization Policies in Open Economies

Richard C. Marston

1116: The Impact of Right-to-Work Laws on Union Organizing

David T. Ellwood and Glenn A. Fine

1115: The Theorems of International Trade with Factor Mobility

Wilfred Ethier and Lars E.O. Svensson

1114: Monetary Instruments and Policy Rules in a Rational Expectations Environment

Michael Dotsey and Robert King

1113: Are Asset Demand Functions Determined by CAPM?

Jeffrey Frankel and William T. Dickens

1112: Empirical Studies of Exchange Rates: Price Behavior, Rate Determinationand Market Efficiency

Richard M. Levich

1111: Uncertain Parameter Values and the Choice Among Policy Options

Don Fullerton and Andrew Lyon

1110: The Desirability of a Dollar Appreciation, Given a Contractionary U.S. Monetary Policy

Jeffrey Frankel

1109: Survey Response Variation in the Current Population Survey

James Poterba and Lawrence H. Summers

1108: Wage Flexibility and Openness

Joshua Aizenman

1107: Adjustment to Monetary Policy and Devaluation Under Two-Tier and Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes

Joshua Aizenman