NBER Working Papers

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31511: Scenario Sampling for Large Supermodular Games

Bryan Graham and Andrin Pelican

31510: Information Aggregation in Stratified Societies

Marina Agranov, Ran Eilat and Konstantin Sonin

31509: The Pervasive Influence of Ideology at the Federal Circuit Courts

Alma Cohen

31508: Optimal Monetary Policy with r*

Roberto Billi, Jordi Galí and Anton Nakov

31507: Information and the Formation of Inflation Expectations by Firms: Evidence from a Survey of Israeli Firms

Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Rafi Melnick and Ari Kutai

31506: Strategyproofness-Exposing Mechanism Descriptions

Yannai A. Gonczarowski, Ori Heffetz and Clayton Thomas

31505: Measuring Financial Integration: More Data, More Countries, More Expectations

Menzie Chinn and Hiro Ito

31504: Learning and Expectations in Dynamic Spatial Economies

Jingting Fan, Sungwan Hong and Fernando Parro

31503: Keep your Enemies Closer: Strategic Platform Adjustments during U.S. and French Elections

Rafael Di Tella, Randy Kotti, Caroline Le Pennec and Vincent Pons

31502: Financial Machine Learning

Bryan T. Kelly and Dacheng Xiu

31501: Constitutions and Order: A Theory and Evidence from Colombia and the United States

Leopoldo Fergusson, Javier Mejia, James Robinson and Santiago Torres

31500: Policy Decentralization in the Post-Prohibition Era

Andrew Arnold and Holger Sieg

31499: Social Security Claiming Intentions: Psychological Ownership, Loss Aversion, and Information Displays

Suzanne Shu and John W. Payne

31498: Selection-Neglect in the NFT Bubble

Dong Huang and William Goetzmann

31497: Were COVID and the Great Recession Well-being Reducing?

David Blanchflower and Alex Bryson

31496: Pandemic, War, Inflation: Oil Markets at a Crossroads?

Christiane Baumeister

31495: Conservation Priorities and Environmental Offsets: Markets for Florida Wetlands

Daniel Aronoff and Will Rafey

31494: Remote Work and City Structure

Ferdinando Monte, Charly Porcher and Esteban Rossi-Hansberg

31493: To What Extent are Trends in Teen Mental Health Driven by Changes in Reporting? The Example of Suicide-Related Hospital Visits

Adriana Corredor-Waldron and Janet Currie

31492: Diversifying Society’s Leaders? The Determinants and Causal Effects of Admission to Highly Selective Private Colleges

Raj Chetty, David Deming and John Friedman

31491: Under the Same Umbrella: Public Health Insurance Expansions and the Uniformity of Insurance for Families

Sarah Hamersma, Daniel S. Grossman and Daniel Tello-Trillo

31490: Discrimination in Multi-Phase Systems: Evidence from Child Protection

E. Jason Baron, Joseph J. Doyle, Natalia Emanuel, Peter Hull and Joseph P. Ryan

31489: Housing, Household Debt, and the Business Cycle: An Application to China and Korea

Amir Sufi

31488: Exporting, Global Sourcing, and Multinational Activity: Theory and Evidence from the United States

Pol Antras, Evgenii Fadeev, Teresa Fort and Felix Tintelnot

31487: Innovation, Inventor Mobility, and the Enforceability of Noncompete Agreements

Matthew S. Johnson, Michael Lipsitz and Alison Pei

31486: More Unequal We Stand? Inequality Dynamics in the United States 1967–2021

Jonathan Heathcote, Fabrizio Perri, Giovanni Violante and Lichen Zhang

31485: Tell Me Something I Don’t Already Know: Learning in Low and High-Inflation Settings

Michael Weber, Bernardo Candia, Hassan Afrouzi, Tiziano Ropele, Rodrigo Lluberas, Serafin Frache, Brent Meyer, Saten Kumar, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Dimitris Georgarakos, Olivier Coibion, Geoff Kenny and Jorge Ponce

31484: Aggregate Lending and Modern Financial Intermediation: Why Bank Balance Sheet Models are Miscalibrated

Greg Buchak, Gregor Matvos, Tomasz Piskorski and Amit Seru

31483: The Expansionary and Contractionary Supply-Side Effects of Health Insurance

Eilidh Geddes and Molly Schnell

31482: Minimum Tax Rates and Tax Competition: Evidence from Property Tax Limits in Finland

Teemu Lyytikäinen

31481: The Impact of Money in Politics on Labor and Capital: Evidence from Citizens United v. FEC

Pat Akey, Tania Babina, Greg Buchak and Ana-Maria Tenekedjieva

31480: Household Mobility, Networks, and Gentrification of Minority Neighborhoods in the US

Fernando Ferreira, Jeanna H. Kenney and Benjamin Smith

31479: Consequences of a Shortage and Rationing: Evidence from a Pediatric Vaccine

Eli Liebman, Emily C. Lawler, Abe Dunn and David Ridley

31478: An Analysis of Benefit Distribution Options Selected by Individuals Covered by the PBGC

Robert L. Clark, Denis Pelletier and Beth Ritter

31477: Entrepreneurship in China's Structural Transitions: Network Expansion and Overhang

Ruochen Dai, Dilip Mookherjee, Kaivan Munshi and Xiaobo Zhang

31476: Dollar Rivals

Jeffrey Frankel

31475: Distributional Weights in Economic Analysis

Robert W. Hahn and Nicholas Muller

31474: Electoral College and Election Fraud

Georgy Egorov and Konstantin Sonin

31473: "Zero Cost'' Majority Attacks on Permissionless Blockchains

Joshua Gans and Hanna Halaburda

31472: Education and Later-life Mortality: Evidence from a School Reform in Japan

Kazuya Masuda and Hitoshi Shigeoka

31471: Moonshot: Public R&D and Growth

Shawn Kantor and Alexander Whalley

31470: Relationship between Social Security Programs and Elderly Employment in Japan

Takashi Oshio, Satoshi Shimizutani and Akiko S. Oishi

31469: Who Values Human Capitalists' Human Capital? The Earnings and Labor Supply of U.S. Physicians

Joshua Gottlieb, Maria Polyakova, Kevin Rinz, Hugh Shiplett and Victoria Udalova

31468: The Electric Telegraph, News Coverage and Political Participation

Tianyi Wang

31467: Corporate Tax Disclosure

Jeffrey L. Hoopes, Leslie Robinson and Joel Slemrod

31466: The Job Ladder: Inflation vs. Reallocation

Giuseppe Moscarini and Fabien Postel-Vinay

31465: The Linear Algebra of Economic Geography Models

Benny Kleinman, Ernest Liu and Stephen Redding

31464: The Credit Supply Channel of Monetary Policy Tightening and its Distributional Impacts

Joshua Bosshardt, Marco Di Maggio, Ali Kakhbod and Amir Kermani

31463: Firms with Benefits? Nonwage Compensation and Implications for Firms and Labor Markets

Paige Ouimet and Geoffrey Tate

31462: Bank Branch Density and Bank Runs

Efraim Benmelech, Jun Yang and Michal Zator

31461: Regulating Transformative Technologies

Daron Acemoglu and Todd Lensman

31460: Mega Firms and Recent Trends in the U.S. Innovation: Empirical Evidence from the U.S. Patent Data

Serguey Braguinsky, Joonkyu Choi, Yuheng Ding, Karam Jo and Seula Kim

31459: Globalization and Inequality in Latin America

Rafael Dix-Carneiro and Brian Kovak

31458: Is the Emphasis on Cofinancing Good for Environmental Multilateral Funds?

Matthew Kotchen and Andrew Vogt

31457: Monopsony, Efficiency, and the Regularization of Undocumented Immigrants

George Borjas and Anthony Edo

31456: Credible Social Planning under Uncertainty

Charles Manski

31455: The Rise in American Pain: The Importance of the Great Recession

Sneha Lamba and Robert Moffitt

31454: The Model T

Shari Eli, Joshua K. Hausman and Paul Rhode

31453: Everything in Moderation: Separating State Dependence from Unobserved Heterogeneity Between Alcohol and Employment

Monica Deza

31452: Tax Losses and Ex-Ante Offshore Transfer of Intellectual Property

Rishi Sharma, Joel Slemrod and Michael Stimmelmayr

31451: Later-life Mortality and the Repeal of Federal Prohibition

David Jacks, Krishna Pendakur, Hitoshi Shigeoka and Anthony Wray

31450: Caregiving and Labor Supply: New Evidence from Administrative Data

Nicole Maestas, Matt Messel and Yulya Truskinovsky

31449: War and Science in Ukraine

Ina Ganguli and Fabian Waldinger

31448: The Age of Mass Migration in Argentina: Social Mobility, Effects on Growth, and Selection Patterns

Federico Droller, Martin Fiszbein and Santiago Perez

31447: How Replaceable Is a Low-Wage Job?

Evan K. Rose and Yotam Shem-Tov

31446: (Breaking) Intergenerational Transmission of Mental Health

Aline Bütikofer, Rita Ginja, Krzysztof Karbownik and Fanny Landaud

31445: The Effects of Cryptocurrency Wealth on Household Consumption and Investment

Darren Aiello, Scott Baker, Tetyana Balyuk, Marco Di Maggio, Mark J. Johnson and Jason Kotter

31444: Getting the Right Tail Right: Modeling Tails of Health Expenditure Distributions

Martin Karlsson, Yulong Wang and Nicolas Ziebarth

31443: Instrumental Variable Methods Reconcile Intention-to-Screen Effects Across Pragmatic Cancer Screening Trials

Joshua Angrist and Peter Hull

31442: Pack-Crack-Pack: Gerrymandering with Differential Turnout

Laurent Bouton, Garance Genicot, Micael Castanheira and Allison Stashko

31441: Policy Diffusion Through Elections

Hitoshi Shigeoka and Yasutora Watanabe

31440: Law-Abiding Immigrants: The Incarceration Gap Between Immigrants and the US-born, 1870–2020

Ran Abramitzky, Leah Boustan, Elisa Jácome, Santiago Perez and Juan David Torres

31439: Time Use, College Attainment, and The Working-from-Home Revolution

Benjamin Cowan

31438: Political Preferences and Transport Infrastructure: Evidence from California’s High-Speed Rail

Pablo D. Fajgelbaum, Cecile Gaubert, Nicole Gorton, Eduardo Morales and Edouard Schaal

31437: Certification and Recertification in Welfare Programs: What Happens When Automation Goes Wrong?

Derek Wu and Bruce Meyer

31436: Access and Exposure to Local News Media in the Digital Era: Evidence from U.S. Media Markets

Minji Bang, Lucie L'Heude, Andrew Postlewaite and Holger Sieg

31435: The Incidence of Adverse Selection: Theory and Evidence from Health Insurance Choices

Michael Geruso, Timothy Layton and Adam Leive

31434: White Flight from Asian Immigration: Evidence from California Public Schools

Leah Boustan, Christine Cai and Tammy Tseng

31433: Price Level and Inflation Dynamics in Heterogeneous Agent Economies

Greg Kaplan, Georgios Nikolakoudis and Giovanni Violante

31432: What Did UWE Do for Economics?

Tatyana Avilova and Claudia Goldin

31431: Fiscal Procyclicality in Commodity Exporting Countries: How Much Does it Pour and Why?

Francisco Arroyo Marioli and Carlos Vegh

31430: On the Importance of African Traditional Religion for Economic Behavior

Lewis Dunia Butinda, Aimable Amani Lameke, Nathan Nunn, Max Posch and Raúl Sánchez de la Sierra

31429: The Intergenerational Transmission of Poverty and Public Assistance: Evidence from the Earned Income Tax Credit

Nicardo S. McInnis, Katherine Michelmore and Natasha Pilkauskas

31428: Innovation and Appropriability: Revisiting the Role of Intellectual Property

Filippo Mezzanotti and Timothy Simcoe

31427: Bottlenecks: Sectoral Imbalances and the US Productivity Slowdown

Daron Acemoglu, David Autor and Christina Patterson

31426: Institutions and Global Crop Yields

David Wuepper, Haoyu Wang, Wolfram Schlenker, Meha Jain and Robert Finger

31425: Black Empowerment and White Mobilization: The Effects of the Voting Rights Act

Andrea Bernini, Giovanni Facchini, Marco Tabellini and Cecilia Testa

31424: Sparse Modeling Under Grouped Heterogeneity with an Application to Asset Pricing

Lin Cong, Guanhao Feng, Jingyu He and Junye Li

31423: The Largest Insurance Expansion in History: Saving One Million Lives Per Year in China

Jonathan Gruber, Mengyun Lin and Junjian Yi

31422: Combining Human Expertise with Artificial Intelligence: Experimental Evidence from Radiology

Nikhil Agarwal, Alex Moehring, Pranav Rajpurkar and Tobias Salz

31421: Think Globally, Act Globally: Opportunities to Mitigate Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

Rachel Glennerster and Seema Jayachandran

31420: Credit Allocation and Macroeconomic Fluctuations

Karsten Müller and Emil Verner

31419: Nowcasting World Trade with Machine Learning: a Three-Step Approach

Menzie Chinn, Baptiste Meunier and Sebastian Stumpner

31418: Currency Risk Premiums: A Multi-horizon Perspective

Mikhail Chernov and Magnus Dahlquist

31417: What Caused the US Pandemic-Era Inflation?

Olivier Blanchard and Ben Bernanke

31416: Production, Trade, and Cross-Border Data Flows

Qing Chang, Lin Cong, Liyong Wang and Longtian Zhang

31415: Concentration, Market Power, and Misallocation: The Role of Endogenous Customer Acquisition

Hassan Afrouzi, Andres Drenik and Ryan Kim

31414: Competitive Capture of Public Opinion

Ricardo Alonso and Gerard Padró I Miquel

31413: How Good Are Privacy Guarantees? Platform Architecture and Violation of User Privacy

Daron Acemoglu, Alireza Fallah, Ali Makhdoumi, Azarakhsh Malekian and Asuman Ozdaglar

31412: Effects of the Expanded Child Tax Credit on Household Spending: Estimates Based on U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey Data

Jake Schild, Sophie M. Collyer, Thesia Garner, Neeraj Kaushal, Jiwan Lee, Jane Waldfogel and Christopher T. Wimer