NBER Working Papers

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25727: How the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake Shaped Economic Activity in the American West

Philipp Ager, Katherine Eriksson, Casper Hansen and Lars Lønstrup

25726: Fast, "Robust", and Approximately Correct: Estimating Mixed Demand Systems

Bernard Salanié and Frank A. Wolak

25725: Taxing Top Incomes in a World of Ideas

Charles Jones

25724: The Democracy Effect: a Weights-Based Identification Strategy

Pedro Dal Bó, Andrew Foster and Kenju Kamei

25723: Risk Preferences of Children and Adolescents in Relation to Gender, Cognitive Skills, Soft Skills, and Executive Functions

James Andreoni, Amalia Di Girolamo, John List, Claire Mackevicius and Anya Samek

25722: Heterogeneous (Mis-) Perceptions of Energy Costs: Implications for Measurement and Policy Design

Sébastien Houde and Erica Myers

25721: Global Capital Flows Cycle: Impact on Gross and Net Flows

Jonathan Davis, Giorgio Valente and Eric van Wincoop

25720: Policy News and Stock Market Volatility

Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steven Davis and Kyle J. Kost

25719: Labor Market Power

David Berger, Kyle Herkenhoff and Simon Mongey

25718: Testing the Effectiveness of Consumer Financial Disclosure: Experimental Evidence from Savings Accounts

Paul D. Adams, Stefan Hunt, Christopher Palmer and Redis Zaliauskas

25717: Investor Ideology

Patrick Bolton, Tao Li, Enrichetta Ravina and Howard L. Rosenthal

25716: How Common are Electoral Cycles in Criminal Sentencing?

Christian Dippel and Mikhail Poyker

25715: Do Private Prisons Affect Criminal Sentencing?

Christian Dippel and Mikhail Poyker

25714: Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Returns: Time-Varying Risk Regimes

Charles Calomiris and Harry Mamaysky

25713: The Patent Troll: Benign Middleman or Stick-Up Artist?

David Abrams, Ufuk Akcigit, Gokhan Oz and Jeremy Pearce

25712: Relinquishing Riches: Auctions vs Informal Negotiations in Texas Oil and Gas Leasing

Thomas R. Covert and Richard Sweeney

25711: The Income Elasticity for Nutrition: Evidence from Unconditional Cash Transfers in Kenya

Ingvild Almås, Johannes Haushofer and Anders Kjelsrud

25710: Capital Controls as Macro-prudential Policy in a Large Open Economy

Jonathan Davis and Michael Devereux

25709: Local Labor Markets in Canada and the United States

David Albouy, Alex Chernoff, Chandler Lutz and Casey Warman

25708: Birds of a Feather: Estimating the Value of Statistical Life from Dual-Earner Families

Joseph Aldy

25707: Wishful Thinking

Andrew Caplin and John Leahy

25706: Capacity Constraints and the Provision of Public Services: The Case of Workers in Public Health Clinics

Matthew Harris, Yinan Liu and Ian McCarthy

25705: Labor Market Shocks and the Demand for Trade Protection: Evidence from Online Surveys

Rafael Di Tella and Dani Rodrik

25704: Engaging Teachers with Technology Increased Achievement, Bypassing Teachers Did Not

Sabrin Beg, Adrienne Lucas, Waqas Halim and Umar Saif

25703: The Industry Anatomy of the Transatlantic Productivity Growth Slowdown

Robert Gordon and Hassan Sayed

25702: Inferring Expectations from Observables: Evidence from the Housing Market

Itzhak Ben-David, Pascal Towbin and Sebastian Weber

25701: Market Frictions, Arbitrage, and the Capitalization of Amenities

Amine Ouazad and Romain Ranciere

25700: The Intergenerational Effects of a Large Wealth Shock: White Southerners After the Civil War

Philipp Ager, Leah Boustan and Katherine Eriksson

25699: Capitalization as a Two-Part Tariff: The Role of Zoning

Spencer Banzhaf and Kyle Mangum

25698: Risk Management in Financial Institutions

Adriano Rampini, S Viswanathan and Guillaume Vuillemey

25697: Coming out in America: AIDS, Politics, and Cultural Change

Raquel Fernandez, Sahar Parsa and Martina Viarengo

25696: Costs of Energy Efficiency Mandates Can Reverse the Sign of Rebound

Don Fullerton and Chi Ta

25695: GDP-B: Accounting for the Value of New and Free Goods in the Digital Economy

Erik Brynjolfsson, Avinash Collis, Walter Diewert, Felix Eggers and Kevin Fox

25694: The Relationship Dilemma: Why Do Banks Differ in the Pace at Which They Adopt New Technology?

Prachi Mishra, Nagpurnanand R. Prabhala and Raghuram Rajan

25693: How Do We Choose Our Identity? A Revealed Preference Approach Using Food Consumption

David Atkin, Eve Colson-Sihra and Moses Shayo

25692: Memory and Representativeness

Pedro Bordalo, Katherine Coffman, Nicola Gennaioli, Frederik Schwerter and Andrei Shleifer

25691: The Causal Interpretation of Two-Stage Least Squares with Multiple Instrumental Variables

Magne Mogstad, Alexander Torgovitsky and Christopher Walters

25690: The Term Structure of Equity Risk Premia

Ravi Bansal, Shane Miller, Dongho Song and Amir Yaron

25689: The Phenomenon of Summer Diarrhea and its Waning, 1910-1930

D. Mark Anderson, Daniel Rees and Tianyi Wang

25688: A Short Note on Aggregating Productivity

David Baqaee and Emmanuel Farhi

25687: Is a Decentralized Right-to-Work Policy Feasible?

Martin Ravallion

25686: Stress Testing Networks: The Case of Central Counterparties

Richard B. Berner, Stephen Cecchetti and Kermit Schoenholtz

25685: Macroeconomic Effects of Debt Relief: Consumer Bankruptcy Protections in the Great Recession

Adrien Auclert, Will S. Dobbie and Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

25684: Automation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor

Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo

25683: Unity in Diversity? How Intergroup Contact Can Foster Nation Building

Samuel Bazzi, Arya Gaduh, Alexander Rothenberg and Maisy Wong

25682: The Wrong Kind of AI? Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Labor Demand

Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo

25681: Inexpensive Heating Reduces Winter Mortality

Janjala Chirakijja, Seema Jayachandran and Pinchuan Ong

25680: Potential for Inward Foreign Direct Investment in Japan

Takeo Hoshi and Kozo Kiyota

25679: Improving Educational Pathways to Social Mobility: Evidence from Norway’s “Reform 94”

Marianne Bertrand, Magne Mogstad and Jack Mountjoy

25678: Cities, Lights, and Skills in Developing Economies

Jonathan Dingel, Antonio Miscio and Donald Davis

25677: The Role of Financial Conditions in Portfolio Choices: The Case of Insurers

Shan Ge and Michael Weisbach

25676: Toward an Understanding of the Economics of Apologies: Evidence from a Large-Scale Natural Field Experiment

Basil Halperin, Benjamin Ho, John List and Ian Muir

25675: Ensemble Methods for Causal Effects in Panel Data Settings

Susan Athey, Mohsen Bayati, Guido Imbens and Zhaonan Qu

25674: Generational Trends in Vehicle Ownership and Use: Are Millennials Any Different?

Christopher Knittel and Elizabeth Murphy

25673: The Time Variation in Risk Appetite and Uncertainty

Geert Bekaert, Eric C. Engstrom and Nancy R. Xu

25672: The Impact of the 2018 Trade War on U.S. Prices and Welfare

Mary Amiti, Stephen Redding and David Weinstein

25671: Counting Defiers

Amanda Kowalski

25670: A Model of a Randomized Experiment with an Application to the PROWESS Clinical Trial

Amanda Kowalski

25669: Mobile Money and Healthcare Use: Evidence from East Africa

Haseeb Ahmed and Benjamin Cowan

25668: Monthly Payment Targeting and the Demand for Maturity

Bronson Argyle, Taylor D. Nadauld and Christopher Palmer

25667: A Theory of Housing Demand Shocks

Zheng Liu, Pengfei Wang and Tao Zha

25666: Do Pollution Markets Harm Low Income and Minority Communities? Ranking Emissions Distributions Generated by California's RECLAIM Program

Erin Mansur and Glenn Sheriff

25665: Contract Farming and Rural Transformation: Evidence from a Field Experiment in Benin

Aminou Arouna, Jeffrey Michler and Jourdain C. Lokossou

25664: Coalition Formation in Legislative Bargaining

Marco Battaglini

25663: The Impact of Early Investments in Urban School Systems in the United States

Ethan J. Schmick and Allison Shertzer

25662: Trading Costs and Informational Efficiency

Eduardo Davila and Cecilia Parlatore

25661: The Lost Ones: the Opportunities and Outcomes of Non-College Educated Americans Born in the 1960s

Margherita Borella, Mariacristina De Nardi and Fang Yang

25660: Exploitation of Labor? Classical Monopsony Power and Labor's Share

Wyatt Brooks, Joseph Kaboski, Yao Li and Wei Qian

25659: Flexible Production and Entry: Institutional, Technological, and Organizational Determinants

Sharon Belenzon, Victor Manuel Bennett and Andrea Patacconi

25658: Optimal Time-Consistent Monetary, Fiscal and Debt Maturity Policy

Eric Leeper, Campbell Leith and Ding Liu

25657: Administrative Data Linking and Statistical Power Problems in Randomized Experiments

Sarah Tahamont, Zubin Jelveh, Aaron Chalfin, Shi Yan and Benjamin Hansen

25656: The Power of the IUD: Effects of Expanding Access to Contraception Through Title X Clinics

Andrea M. Kelly, Jason Lindo and Analisa Packham

25655: Changing Business Cycles: The Role of Women's Employment

Stefania Albanesi

25654: Data Driven Regulation: Theory and Application to Missing Bids

Sylvain Chassang, Kei Kawai, Jun Nakabayashi and Juan Ortner

25653: The Total Risk Premium Puzzle

Oscar Jorda, Moritz Schularick and Alan Taylor

25652: Evaluating Consumers' Choices of Medicare Part D Plans: A Study in Behavioral Welfare Economics

Michael Keane, Jonathan Ketcham, Nicolai Kuminoff and Timothy Neal

25651: Does Mandating Social Insurance Affect Entrepreneurial Activity?

Youssef Benzarti, Jarkko Harju and Tuomas Matikka

25650: Memory and Reference Prices: an Application to Rental Choice

Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer

25649: How Monetary Policy Shaped the Housing Boom

Itamar Drechsler, Alexi Savov and Philipp Schnabl

25648: Long-run Trends in the U.S. SES-Achievement Gap

Eric Hanushek, Jacob D. Light, Paul E. Peterson, Laura M. Talpey and Ludger Woessmann

25647: Do Minimum Wage Increases Reduce Crime?

Zachary Fone, Joseph J. Sabia and Resul Cesur

25646: Trade Shocks and the Shifting Landscape of U.S. Manufacturing

Katherine Eriksson, Katheryn Russ, Jay Shambaugh and Minfei Xu

25645: Getting Smart About Phones: New Price Indexes and the Allocation of Spending Between Devices and Services Plans in Personal Consumption Expenditures

Ana Aizcorbe, David Byrne and Daniel Sichel

25644: Who’s Paying Attention? Measuring Common Ownership and Its Impact on Managerial Incentives

Erik P. Gilje, Todd Gormley and Doron Y. Levit

25643: Overlapping Climate Policies

Grischa Perino, Robert Ritz and Arthur van Benthem

25642: Disability and Distress: The Effect of Disability Programs on Financial Outcomes

ManasI Deshpande, Tal Gross and Yalun Su

25641: School Bus Emissions, Student Health, and Academic Performance

Wes Austin, Garth Heutel and Daniel Kreisman

25640: Ethnic Inequality and Poverty in Malaysia Since 1969

Martin Ravallion

25639: Immigrants’ Earnings Growth and Return Migration from the U.S.: Examining their Determinants using Linked Survey and Administrative Data

Randall Akee and Maggie R. Jones

25638: The Return to Protectionism

Pablo Fajgelbaum, Pinelopi Goldberg, Patrick J. Kennedy and Amit Khandelwal

25637: Measuring the Welfare Effects of Shame and Pride

Luigi Butera, Robert Metcalfe, William Morrison and Dmitry Taubinsky

25636: Optimal Environmental Targeting in the Amazon Rainforest

Juliano Assuncao, Robert McMillan, Joshua Murphy and Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues

25635: SNAP and Paycheck Cycles

Timothy Beatty, Marianne Bitler, Xinzhe Huang Cheng and Cynthia van der Werf

25634: Do Public Firms Respond to Industry Opportunities More Than Private Firms? The Impact of Initial Firm Quality

Vojislav Maksimovic, Gordon Phillips and Liu Yang

25633: The Leading Premium

Mariano Croce, Tatyana Marchuk and Christian Schlag

25632: Information Source and Cigarettes: Experimental Evidence on the Messenger Effect

Johanna Maclean, John Buckell and Joachim Marti

25631: Environmental Policy and Innovation: A Decade of Research

David Popp

25630: Long-run Effects from Comprehensive Student Support: Evidence from Pathways to Education

Adam Lavecchia, Philip Oreopoulos and Robert S. Brown

25629: Recovery of 1933

Margaret Jacobson, Eric Leeper and Bruce Preston

25628: Aggregate Nominal Wage Adjustments: New Evidence from Administrative Payroll Data

John Grigsby, Erik Hurst and Ahu Yildirmaz