NBER Working Papers

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34452: The Effects of Immigration Enforcement on Student Outcomes in a New Era of Immigration Policy in the United States

David Figlio and Umut Özek

34451: People versus Places: Elite Persistence after the Fall of the Ming

Carol H. Shiue and Wolfgang Keller

34450: Demand Elasticity in Dynamic Asset Pricing

Zhiguo He, Péter Kondor and Jessica S. Li

34449: From Asia, With Skills

Gaurav Khanna

34448: Probability Pricing

Eduardo Davila, Cecilia Parlatore and Ansgar Walther

34447: The Roots of the Modern American Presidential Campaign

Francisco Pino and Laura Salisbury

34446: Investor Beliefs and Expectation Formation

Stefano Giglio, Matteo Maggiori, Joachim Rillo, Johannes Stroebel, Stephen P. Utkus and Xiao Xu

34445: Minimum Wages and Informality

Ellora Derenoncourt, Francois Gerard, Lorenzo Lagos and Claire Montialoux

34444: Artificial Intelligence, Competition, and Welfare

Susan Athey and Fiona Scott Morton

34443: Breaking Parity: Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Currency Premia

Mai Dao, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas and Oleg Itskhoki

34442: Motives and Constraints in the Implementation of Argentina’s 2017 Tax Reform

Santiago Afonso and Sebastian Galiani

34441: Leaving Money on the Dashboard: Price Dispersion and Search Frictions on Uber and Lyft

Jeffrey Fossett, Michael Luca and Yejia Xu

34440: Positioned at Extremes: Future Job Placements of Immigrant Students at U.S. Colleges

Francis M. Dillon, Sari Pekkala Kerr, William Kerr and Andrew J. Wang

34439: Employment Relationships, Wage Setting, and Labor Market Power

Francesco Agostinelli, Domenico Ferraro, Giuseppe Sorrenti and Leonard Treuren

34438: Environmental Catastrophe and the Direction of Invention: Evidence from the American Dust Bowl

Jacob Moscona

34437: The (In)effectiveness of Targeted Payroll Tax Reductions

Alessandra Fenizia, Nicholas Y. Li and Luca Citino

34436: Monetary Policy without an Anchor

Luigi Bocola, Alessandro Dovis, Kasper Jørgensen and Rishabh Kirpalani

34435: Cannabis and Respiratory Health

Jayani Jayawardhana, Jialin Hou and Johanna Maclean

34434: The Financial Consequences of Being Denied Benefit Access

Tatiana Homonoff, Min S. Lee and Katherine Meckel

34433: Pushing Back Against Private Practice: The Unintended Effects of Paying Public Doctors More

Jonathan Gruber, Núria Mas, Judit Vall Castello and Jaume Vives-i-Bastida

34432: Voting with Their Feet: Democratic Backsliding and Market-Minded Migration - Evidence from Israel and Europe

Assaf Razin

34431: Planes Overhead: How Airplane Noise Impacts Home Values

Florian Allroggen, R. John Hansman, Christopher Knittel, Jing Li, Xibo Wan and Juju Wang

34430: Political Information and Network Effects

Georgy Egorov, Sergei Guriev, Maxim Mironov and Ekaterina Zhuravskaya

34429: The GATT vs Inflation: Tokyo Drift

Andrew Greenland, James Lake and John Lopresti

34428: Vulnerability of the Public Safety System: Evidence from Micro-Shocks

Shooshan Danagoulian, Monica Deza, Johanna Maclean and Alberto Ortega

34427: Modeling and Measuring the Genetic Determinants of Child Development

Francesco Agostinelli and Zach Weingarten

34426: The Role of Private Debt in the Financial Ecosystem

Victoria Ivashina

34425: Same Crime, Different Time: Disparities in Judicial Outcomes for DWI Offenders

Jeffrey Denning, Benjamin Hansen, Lars Lefgren, Emily C. Leslie and Cody Tuttle

34424: The Price of Intelligence: How Should Socially-minded Firms Price and Deploy AI?

Nils H. Lehr and Pascual Restrepo

34423: We Won't be Missed: Work and Growth in the AGI World

Pascual Restrepo

34422: The Value of Banking Relationships

Howard Bodenhorn and Youwei Xing

34421: Political Power and Mortality: Heterogeneous Effects of the U.S. Voting Rights Act

Atheendar Venkataramani, Rourke O'Brien, Elizabeth F. Bair and Christopher A. Lowenstein

34420: The Prestakes of Stock Market Investing

Francesco Bianchi, Do Lee, Sydney Ludvigson and Sai Ma

34419: An Inverse-Ramsey Tax Rule

Luca Micheletto, Dylan T. Moore, Daniel Reck and Joel Slemrod

34418: Optimal Dual-Regime Business Tax Systems

Rishi Sharma, Joel Slemrod, Michael Stimmelmayr, John Wilson and Peter Choi

34417: Fraud at a Distance? How Remote Work Shapes Financial Misconduct

John Barrios, Jessie Jianwen Guo and Yanping Zhu

34416: The International Monetary System in the Last and Next 20 Years Redux

Barry Eichengreen and Raul Razo-Garcia

34415: Ideology in Government: Evidence from the Office of Indian Affairs and the Assimilation Era

Eric Chyn, Kareem Haggag and Christian Maruthiah

34414: Fast Action for Floods: RCT Evidence on Forecast-based Cash Transfers from Bangladesh and Nepal

Paul J. Christian, Felipe A. Dunsch, Jonas Heirman, Erin M. Kelley, Florence Kondylis, Gregory Lane, Jennifer Waidler, Nidhila Adusumalli, Odbayar Batmunkh and Kriti Malhotra

34413: The Musk Partisan Effect on Tesla Sales

Kenneth Gillingham, Matthew Kotchen, James Levinsohn and Barry Nalebuff

34412: The Cook County Tax on Sweetened Beverages: The Impact on Purchases of its Announcement, Implementation, and Repeal

Felipe Lozano Rojas, John Cawley and David Frisvold

34411: Lessons for Automatic Fiscal Stabilizers from the Great Recession and the COVID Recession

Karen Dynan and Douglas Elmendorf

34410: Managing Financial Crises

Gianluca Benigno, Alessandro Rebucci and Aliaksandr Zaretski

34409: Interpreting Turbulent Episodes in International Finance

Helene Rey and Vania Stavrakeva

34408: Trade Policy Ambiguity

Joseph Steinberg

34407: Intergenerational Mobility in Measures of Wellbeing: Consumption, Health and Life Satisfaction

Jonathan Davis, Nathan Deutscher and Bhashkar Mazumder

34406: Carbon Taxation and Firm Behavior in Emerging Economies: Evidence from South Africa

Johannes Gallé, Rodrigo Oliveira, Daniel Overbeck, Nadine Riedel and Edson Severnini

34405: Careers of Minimum Wage Workers

Sari Pekkala Kerr, William Kerr and Louis J. Maiden

34404: Monetary Policy and Housing Overvaluation

Nina Biljanovska, Eduardo Espuny Diaz, Amir Kermani and Rui C. Mano

34403: The Relationship Between Certificate of Need Laws and Mortality

Jonathan H. Cantor, Jill Horwitz, Christopher Whaley and Anthony Yu

34402: GDP Growth Expectations and Cash-flow Risk Premium

William Goetzmann, Akiko Watanabe and Masahiro Watanabe

34401: Strategic Avoidance and the Welfare Impacts of U.S. Solar Panel Tariffs

Todd Gerarden, Bryan K. Bollinger, Kenneth Gillingham and Yi Xu

34400: Does Increasing Financial Access to Contraception in the U.S. Reduce Undesired Pregnancies? Evidence from the M-CARES Randomized Control Trial at Two Years

Martha Bailey, Emilia Brito Rebolledo, Deniz Gorgulu, Kelsey Figone, Vanessa W. Lang, Alexa Prettyman and Vanessa Dalton

34399: Stimulus through Insurance: the Marginal Propensity to Repay Debt

Gizem Kosar, Davide Melcangi, Laura Pilossoph and David Wiczer

34398: Working it out: Randomized Modification and Entrepreneurial Effort in a Collateralized Debt Market

Christopher Eaglin, Apoorv Gupta, Filippo Mezzanotti and Jonathan Zinman

34397: The Austerity Threshold

Vadim Elenev, Tim Landvoigt and Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

34396: Biased Party Nominations as a Source of Women's Electoral Underperformance

Thomas Fujiwara, Hanno Hilbig and Pia Raffler

34395: Log-Linear Relative Asset Demand

Narayana Kocherlakota

34394: Career Concerns in Collective Decision-Making: The Federal Open Market Committee

Matias Iaryczower, Gabriel Lopez-Moctezuma and Paola Moscariello

34393: Productivity Catch-Up or Factor Shift in the Race for Global Industrial Dominance

Ting-Wei Lai, Shin-Kun Peng, Raymond Riezman and Ping Wang

34392: Who Pays for Tariffs Along the Supply Chain? Evidence from European Wine Tariffs

Aaron B. Flaaen, Ali Hortaçsu, Felix Tintelnot, Nicolas Urdaneta and Yi Xu

34391: The Ripple Effects of China’s College Expansion on American Universities

Ruixue Jia, Gaurav Khanna, Hongbin Li and Yuli Xu

34390: Heterogeneity in Vertical Foreclosure: Evidence from the Chinese Film Industry

Charles Hodgson and Shilong Sun

34389: The Economic Consequences of War

Efraim Benmelech and João Monteiro

34388: The Impact of Cellphone Bans in Schools on Student Outcomes: Evidence from Florida

David Figlio and Umut Özek

34387: Ads as Cues

Pedro Bordalo, Giovanni Burro, Nicola Gennaioli, Gad Nacamulli and Andrei Shleifer

34386: Technology and Labor Markets: Past, Present, and Future; Evidence from Two Centuries of Innovation

Huben Liu, Dimitris Papanikolaou, Lawrence Schmidt and Bryan Seegmiller

34385: Ordinary Life Insurance: The Best-Performing Financial Asset of the 1930s

Vellore Arthi, G Gary Richardson and Mark Van Orden

34384: On the Optimality of Deferred Public Annuities

Liran Einav and Amy Finkelstein

34383: Education and Selection into Ethnic Identification: Evidence from Roma People in Romania

Andreea Mitrut, Gabriel Kreindler, Margareta Matache, Andrei Munteanu and Cristian Pop-Eleches

34382: Perceptions of Public Debt and Policy Expectations: Evidence from Cross Country Surveys

Francesco Bianchi, Era Dabla-Norris and Salma Khalid

34381: Complexity Theory and Economic Inequality

Steven Durlauf, David McMillon and Scott Page

34380: Disentangling Age, Time, and Cohort Effects in Income Inequality: A Proxy Machine Learning Approach

David Bruns-Smith, Emi Nakamura and Jon Steinsson

34379: Contractibility Design

Roberto Corrao, Joel Flynn and Karthik Sastry

34378: Children Are Bridges to Heaven: The Effects of Fertility on Later-Life Mortality

Jason Fletcher and Hamid Noghanibehambari

34377: Option Value of Apex Predators: Evidence from a River Discontinuity

Eyal G. Frank, Anouch Missirian, Dominic Parker and Jennifer L. Raynor

34376: The Social and Individual Effects of Homeless Shelter: Evidence from Temporary Shelter Provision

Derek A. Christopher, Mark Duggan and Olivia H. Martin

34375: Beyond Education and Occupation: Unpacking the Large Gender Wage Gap in Kenya

Uyanga Byambaa, Edward Miguel, Michael Walker and Samuel Zicheng Wang

34374: Diffusing Innovations Under Market Competition: Evidence from Drug-Eluting Stents

Ginger Zhe Jin, Hsienming Lien and Xuezhen Tao

34373: Evaluating Substitutes for Federal Antitrust: The Case of COPAs

Seungwhan Chun, Marco Duarte, Cici McNamara and Jason Lindo

34372: Exorbitant Changes in Three Parts

Alexandra M. Tabova and Francis E. Warnock

34371: Banking Crises, Nonlinear Export Elasticities, and the Dominant Currency Paradigm

Robin Brooks and Eswar Prasad

34370: Historical Government: Origins, Evolution and Varieties

Leander Heldring

34369: Information, Spillovers, or Hassle Costs? Effects of Medicaid Prior Authorization on Preschool Antipsychotic Prescribing

Janet Currie and Kate Musen

34368: Government Recommendations and Health Behaviors: Evidence from Breast Cancer Screening Guidelines

Brandyn Churchill and Emily Lawler

34367: Community Rating and Vertical Price Distortions in Insurance Menus

Honglin Li, Chenyuan Liu and Justin R. Sydnor

34366: Who Rides Out the Storm? The Immediate Post-College Transition and its Role in Socioeconomic Earnings Gaps

Judith Scott-Clayton, Veronica Minaya, C.J. Libassi and Joshua K.R. Thomas

34365: Returns to Trainees in a Highly Regulated Labor Market

Michael R. Richards, Jonathan Seward and Christopher Whaley

34364: Prosecutorial Reform and Local Crime Rates

Amanda Y. Agan, Jennifer Doleac, Anna Harvey, Anna Kyriazis and Lauren Schechter

34363: A Narrative Account of the Great Inflation in the UK 1961-1997

Michael Bordo, Oliver Bush and Ryland Thomas

34362: The Lower Boundary of Workplace Mistreatment: Do Small Slights Matter?

Michal Hodor, Liat Eldor and Peter Cappelli

34361: Transshipment Hubs, Trade, and Supply Chains

Anh D. Do, Sharat Ganapati, Woan Foong Wong and Oren Ziv

34360: Social Costs of Work Disruptions: Evidence from Physicians and their Patients

Leila Agha, Na'ama Shenhav and Myles Wagner

34359: China’s Lending to Developing Countries: From Boom to Bust

Sebastian Horn, Carmen Reinhart and Christoph Trebesch

34358: Optimal Trade Policies and Market Power in General Equilibrium Trade Models

Yan Bai, Dan Lu and Hanxi Wang

34357: The Global Economic Impact of Climate Change: An Empirical Perspective

Solomon Hsiang

34356: The Economic Geography of American Slavery

Treb Allen, Winston Chen and Suresh Naidu

34355: From the Classroom to the Ballot Box: Turnout and Partisan Consequences of Education

Ethan Kaplan, Jörg Spenkuch and Cody Tuttle

34354: Transport in Low- and Middle-income Countries

Adam Storeygard

34353: What the Mercantilists Got Right

Dani Rodrik