NBER Working Papers

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33741: Bureaucratic Incentives and Effectiveness of the One Child Policy in China

Hongbin Li, Lingsheng Meng, Grant Miller and Hanmo Yang

33740: Why Do Union Jobs Pay More? New Evidence from Matched Employer-Employee Data

Pierre-Loup Beauregard, Thomas Lemieux, Derek Messacar and Raffaele Saggio

33739: Tariffs and Retaliation: A Brief Macroeconomic Analysis

Stéphane Auray, Michael Devereux and Aurélien Eyquem

33738: The Importance of Preventive Medical Care for Managing Chronic Disease

Claire Boone, Pablo Celhay, Paul Gertler and Tadeja Gracner

33737: Money or Time? Heterogeneous Effects of Unconditional Cash on Parental Investments

Hema Shah, Lisa A. Gennetian, Katherine Magnuson, Hirokazu Yoshikawa, Laura R. Stilwell, Kimberly Noble and Greg Duncan

33736: Do Transfer Pricing Reforms Lead to a Boom in Tax Consultants?

Dina Pomeranz and Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato

33735: Innovation and Health Inequality: Evidence from Direct-Acting Antivirals

Kevin Callison, Michael Darden and Keith Teltser

33734: A Stepping Stone Approach to Norm Transitions

Selim Gulesci, Sam Jindani, Eliana La Ferrara, David Smerdon, Munshi Sulaiman and H. Young

33733: Trends in Work Capacity in the US Population: Are Recent Cohorts in Worse Health?

David Cutler, Ellen Meara and Susan Stewart

33732: Analyzing the Effects of Occupational Licensing on Earnings Inequality in the United States

Kihwan Bae, Morris M. Kleiner, Conor Norris and Edward Timmons

33731: The Demographic and Research Styles of Economics Writing

Daniel Hamermesh

33730: The Gender Gap in Career Trajectories: Do Firms Matter?

David Card, Francesco Devicienti, Mariacristina Rossi and Andrea Weber

33729: The Sources of Researcher Variation in Economics

Nick Huntington-Klein, Claus Pörtner, Ian McCarthy and The Many Economists Collaborative on Researcher Variation

33728: Field Choice, Skill Specificity, and Labor Market Disruptions

Valerie Smeets, Lin Tian and Sharon Traiberman

33727: Regulating Out-of-Network Hospital Payments: Disagreement Payoffs, Negotiated Prices, and Access

Elena Prager and Nicholas Tilipman

33726: The Macroeconomics of Tariff Shocks

Adrien Auclert, Matthew Rognlie and Ludwig Straub

33725: State versus Market: China's Infrastructure Investment

Shuoge Qian, Hong Ru and Wei Xiong

33724: An Anatomy of U.S. Establishments' Trade Linkages in Global Value Chains

Aaron B. Flaaen, Fariha Kamal, Eunhee Lee and Kei-Mu Yi

33723: The Global Effects of Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms

Kimberly Clausing, Jonathan Colmer, Allan Hsiao and Catherine Wolfram

33722: Screening Through Soft Spending Limits: Evidence from the Medicare Therapy Cap

Ashvin Gandhi and Maggie Shi

33721: Local Energy Access and Industry Specialization: Evidence from World War II Emergency Pipelines

Jacob Greenspon and Gordon Hanson

33720: Protection for Whom? The Political Economy of Protective Labor Laws for Women

Matthias Doepke, Hanno Foerster, Anne Hannusch and Michele Tertilt

33719: Saved by Medicaid: New Evidence on Health Insurance and Mortality from the Universe of Low-Income Adults

Angela Wyse and Bruce Meyer

33718: Taming Cycles: China’s Growth Targets and Macroeconomic Management

Jeffery (Jinfan) Chang, Yuheng Wang and Wei Xiong

33717: Opioids and Post-COVID Labor-Force Participation

Francesco Chiocchio, Jeremy Greenwood, Nezih Guner and Karen Kopecky

33716: Using Multiple Outcomes to Adjust Standard Errors for Spatial Correlation

Stefano DellaVigna, Guido Imbens, Woojin Kim and David M. Ritzwoller

33715: Optimal Second-best Menu Design: Evidence from Residential Electricity Plans

Maria Garcia-Osipenko, Nicolai Kuminoff, Spencer Perry and Nicholas Vreugdenhil

33714: The Global Macro Database: A New International Macroeconomic Dataset

Karsten Müller, Chenzi Xu, Mohamed Lehbib and Ziliang Chen

33713: The Rise of Absorptive Research in Corporate America: 1945-1980

Ashish Arora, Sharon Belenzon, Jungkyu Suh and Hansen Zhang

33712: The Political Economy of Firm Networks: CEO Ideology and Global Trade

Elisabeth Kempf, Mancy Luo and Margarita Tsoutsoura

33711: A Theory of Supply Function Choice and Aggregate Supply

Joel P. Flynn, Georgios Nikolakoudis and Karthik Sastry

33710: The Invention of Corporate Governance

Yueran Ma and Andrei Shleifer

33709: How Tariffs Affect Trade Deficits

Arnaud Costinot and Iván Werning

33708: The Law and Economics of Lawyers: Evidence from the Revolving Door in China’s Judicial System

John Zhuang Liu, Wenwei Peng, Shaoda Wang and Yi Xu

33707: Firm Presence, Pollution, and Agglomeration: Evidence from a Randomized Environmental Place-Based Policy

Michael Gechter and Namrata Kala

33706: Reducing Nutritional Disparities Through Targeted Pricing: Evidence from a Large Restaurant Chain

Weijia (Daisy) Dai, Ginger Zhe Jin and Ben Zou

33705: Did War Mobilization Cause Aggregate and Regional Growth?

Taylor Jaworski and Dongkyu Yang

33704: Option Value Neglect: Evidence from Centralized College Admission

Ao Wang, Shaoda Wang and Xiaoyang Ye

33703: From Distraction to Dedication: Commitment and Incentives Against Phone Use in the Classroom

Billur Aksoy, Lester Lusher and Scott Carrell

33702: Long-Run Effects of Trade Wars

David Baqaee and Hannes Malmberg

33701: Skewed Fluctuations and Propagation Through Production Networks

Sai Krishna Kamepalli, Serena Ng and Francisco Ruge-Murcia

33700: Ethnographic Records, Folklore, and AI

Stelios Michalopoulos

33699: Health Impacts of Federal Pandemic Aid to State and Local Governments

Jeffrey Clemens and Anwita Mahajan

33698: Fiscal Policy as a Stabilization Tool. The Case for Quasi-Automatic Stabilizers, With an Application to the VAT

Olivier Blanchard

33697: The Effect of Deactivating Facebook and Instagram on Users’ Emotional State

Hunt Allcott, Matthew Gentzkow, Benjamin Wittenbrink, Juan Cisneros, Adriana Crespo-Tenorio, Drew Dimmery, Deen Freelon, Sandra González-Bailón, Andrew M. Guess, Young Mie Kim, David Lazer, Neil Malhotra, Devra Moehler, Sameer Nair-Desai, Brendan Nyhan, Jennifer Pan, Jaime Settle, Emily Thorson, Rebekah Tromble, Carlos Velasco Rivera, Arjun Wilkins, Magdalena Wojcieszak, Annie Franco, Chad Kiewiet de Jonge, Winter Mason, Natalie Jomini Stroud and Joshua A. Tucker

33696: The Political Power of Firms

Matilde Bombardini and Francesco Trebbi

33695: Quotas in General Equilibrium

David Baqaee and Kunal Sangani

33694: Housing Supply and Housing Affordability

Nathaniel Baum-Snow and Gilles Duranton

33693: Performance Capital Flows in DC Pensions

Bryan Gutierrez Cortez, Victoria Ivashina and Juliana Salomao

33692: Does Homeownership Matter? The Long-Term Consequences of Losing a House during the Great Recession

Heidi Artigue, Patrick Bayer, Fernando Ferreira and Stephen Ross

33691: Public Finance Implications of Economic Inequality

Alan Auerbach

33690: The Long Road to Equality: Racial Capital and Generational Convergence

Patrick Bayer, Kerwin Kofi Charles and JoonYup Park

33689: The Long-Run Impacts of Mentoring Underrepresented Minority Groups in Economics

Francisca Antman, Sheng Qu, Trevon Logan and Bruce Weinberg

33688: Interventionist Preferences and the Welfare State: The Case of In-Kind Aid

Sandro Ambuehl, B. Douglas Bernheim, Tony Q. Fan and Zachary Freitas-Groff

33687: Labor Market Polarization and Inequality: A Roy Model Perspective

Andres Erosa, Luisa Fuster, Gueorgui Kambourov and Richard Rogerson

33686: Global Networks, Monetary Policy and Trade

Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Can Soylu and Muhammed A. Yildirim

33685: Taxes and Private Firms’ Capital Structure Choices

Mara Faccio and Jin Xu

33684: Partisan Trust in the Federal Reserve

Carola Binder, Cody Couture and Abhiprerna Smit

33683: Educational Ambition, Marital Sorting, and Inequality

Frederik Almar, Benjamin Friedrich, Ana Reynoso, Bastian Schulz and Rune Vejlin

33682: If You Had One Shot: Scale and Herding in Innovation Experiments

Ashish Arora, Sharique Hasan and William D. Miles

33681: Putting Economics Back Into Geoeconomics

Christopher Clayton, Matteo Maggiori and Jesse Schreger

33680: Anticipated Discrimination and Major Choice

Louis-Pierre Lepage, Xiaomeng Li and Basit Zafar

33679: Do Time-Constraints Matter? How, Why, and For Whom?

Kala Krishna, Pelin Akyol and Esma Ozer

33678: Measuring Income and Income Inequality

Conor J. Clarke and Wojciech Kopczuk

33677: Talk Therapy and Human Capital in Adolescence: Evidence from Nepal

Eric Edmonds, Priya Mukherjee, Nikhilesh Prakash, Nishith Prakash and Shwetlena Sabarwal

33676: The Economics of Encouragement: Can A Simple Email Shape Major Choice?

Olivia Edwards and Jonathan Meer

33675: Growing Awareness: Evaluating the Impact of Environmental Education on Attitudes, Knowledge, and Behavior

Jennifer Alix-García and Christopher Knittel

33674: The Risk Sensitivity of Global Liquidity Flows: Heterogeneity, Evolution and Drivers

Stefan Avdjiev, Leonardo Gambacorta, Linda Goldberg and Stefano Schiaffi

33673: Pension Reform and Labor Supply: Retention and Productivity under a Pension Cut

Andrew Johnston, Jonah E. Rockoff and James R. Harrington

33672: Heterogeneous Beliefs, Asset Prices, and Business Cycles

Saki Bigio, Dejanir Silva and Eduardo Zilberman

33671: Paths to the Periphery

James Robinson

33670: Training within Firms

Brayan S. Diaz, Andrea Neyra Nazarrett, Julian Ramirez, Raffaella Sadun and Jorge A. Tamayo

33669: How Good is AI at Twisting Arms? Experiments in Debt Collection

James Choi, Dong Huang, Zhishu Yang and Qi Zhang

33668: Scoring and Cartel Discipline in Procurement Auctions

Jun Nakabayashi, Juan Ortner, Sylvain Chassang and Kei Kawai

33667: Adjusters and Casualties: The Anatomy of Labor Market Displacement

Eric Hanushek, Simon Janssen, Jacob D. Light and Lisa Simon

33666: The Political Consequences of Controversial Education Reform: Lessons from Wisconsin’s Act 10

Barbara Biasi and Wayne Aaron Sandholtz

33665: Substitution Bias and Fixed-Weight Price Indices in Time-Dependent Pricing Models

Lawrence Christiano, Martin Eichenbaum and Benjamin K. Johannsen

33664: Taxes on Lifetime Income: A Good Idea?

Dirk Krueger and Chunzan Wu

33663: Forward Selection Fama-MacBeth Regression with Higher Order Asset-Pricing Factors

Nicola Borri, Denis Chetverikov, Yukun Liu and Aleh Tsyvinski

33662: Measuring Human Leadership Skills with AI Agents

Ben Weidmann, Yixian Xu and David Deming

33661: Credit, Land Speculation, and Low-Interest-Rate Policy

Tomohiro Hirano and Joseph Stiglitz

33660: Voluntary Report of Standardized Test Scores: An Experimental Study

Marty Haoyuan Chen and Ginger Zhe Jin

33659: The Effects of Eviction on Children

Robert Collinson, Deniz Dutz, John Humphries, Nicholas S. Mader, Daniel Tannenbaum and Winnie van Dijk

33658: Information-Concealing Credit Architecture

Gary Gorton, Ye Li and Guillermo Ordonez

33657: Leaving Money on the Table

Mackenzie Alston, Tatyana Deryugina and Olga Shurchkov

33656: Counting the Poor: The Liquidity-Adjusted Supplemental Expenditure Poverty Measure

Sung Ah Bahk, John Fitzgerald and Robert Moffitt

33655: Asylum Seekers and the Rise in Homelessness

Bruce Meyer, Angela Wyse and Douglas Williams

33654: Failures of Contingent Reasoning in Annuitization Decisions

Erzo Luttmer, Priscila de Oliveira and Dmitry Taubinsky

33653: Workplace Segregation between College and Non-college Workers

Francis M. Dillon, Edward Glaeser and William Kerr

33652: Sorting to Expensive Cities

Cécile Gaubert and Frederic Robert-Nicoud

33651: Asset Embeddings

Xavier Gabaix, Ralph Koijen, Robert Richmond and Motohiro Yogo

33650: AI as Strategist

Joshua Gans

33649: The Memory Premium

Yuval Salant, Jörg Spenkuch and David Almog

33648: Moral Hazard under Liquidity Constraints

Keith Marzilli Ericson, Johannes G. Jaspersen and Justin R. Sydnor

33647: Global Spillovers of Climate Policy Shocks

Julian di Giovanni, Galina Hale, Neel Lahiri and Anirban Sanyal

33646: Estimating the Footprint of Artisanal Mining in Africa

Darin Christensen, Tamma Carleton, Esther Rolf, Cullen Molitor, Shopnavo Biswas, Karena Yan and Graeme Blair

33645: The Conflict-of-Interest Discount in the Marketplace of Ideas

John Barrios, Filippo Lancieri, Joshua Levy, Shashank Singh, Tommaso Valletti and Luigi Zingales

33644: The Effects of Deleting Medical Debt from Consumer Credit Reports

Victor Duarte, Julia Fonseca, Divij Kohli and Julian Reif

33643: Non-Wage Amenities

Alexandre Mas

33642: Non-User Utility and Market Power: The Case of Smartphones

Leonardo Bursztyn, Rafael Jiménez-Durán, Aaron Leonard, Filip Milojević and Christopher Roth