NBER Working Papers

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35227: The Optimal Use of AI in Financial Regulation

Christopher Clayton and Antonio Coppola

35226: A Promise Worth Keeping? Impacts of Free Community College on Degrees and Earnings

Paige Schoonover, Jonathon Attridge, Celeste Carruthers and Jilleah G. Welch

35225: States as Financiers: International Lending in War and Peace

Sebastian Horn, Carmen Reinhart and Christoph Trebesch

35224: Credit Supply, Firms, and Earnings Inequality

Christian Moser, Farzad Saidi, Benjamin Wirth and Stefanie Wolter

35223: Management of Health Care Facilities and Patient Attendance during Major Disruptions: Evidence from Kenya

Kathryn Andrews, Fabiano Dal-Ri, Roberta Gatti, Renata Lemos, Mario Macis and Lydia Nakhone

35222: Explaining Movements in Government Debt

Tatiana Kirsanova, Eric Leeper, Campbell Leith and Ding Liu

35221: Proposed Mergers Where Efficiencies Are Needed Most Might Be the Least Likely to Deliver Them

Robert Metcalfe, Alexandre B. Sollaci and Chad Syverson

35220: Trust, Financial Literacy, and Financial Behaviors: Shaping Retirement Security

Maya Haran Rosen, Annamaria Lusardi and Olivia Mitchell

35219: Lands of Opportunity: Differences in the Geography of Wealth and Income Mobility in the United States

Ariel Binder, Max Risch and John L. Voorheis

35218: California Billionaires: Wealth, Taxes, and Wealth Tax Revenue Estimates

Jasper Boll, Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman

35217: The Limits of Political Representation: Evidence from India

Veda Narasimhan and Jeffrey Weaver

35216: Divergence in Climate Change Communication: LLM-Based Evidence from the IPCC and the Press

Sebastian Galiani, Franco Mettola La Giglia and Raul A. Sosa

35215: Valuing Disaster Prevention: Desert Locust Monitoring and Control

Joséphine Gantois, Anouch Missirian, Evelina Linnros, Anna Tompsett, Amir Jina, Gordon McCord and Eyal G. Frank

35214: The Psychology of Macroeconomic Expectations

Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes, Simon G. Schröder, Andrei Shleifer and Maarten van Rooij

35213: Sophisticated Borrowing Constraints and Macroeconomic Dynamics

Al-Mahdi Ebsim, Chen Lian, Yueran Ma, Pablo Ottonello and Diego J. Perez

35212: Old Space, New Space: A Commercial Revolution in Innovation?

Ruben Gaetani and Alexander Whalley

35211: Endogenous Task Bundling, Skills and Automation

Joshua Gans

35210: Medical Innovation and Racial Health Disparities: Evidence from a Breakthrough Treatment

D. Mark Anderson, Kerwin Kofi Charles and Daniel Rees

35209: State Dependence of Monetary Policy During Global Supply Chain Disruptions

Xiwen Bai, Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, Yiliang Li and Francesco Zanetti

35208: Estimating the Present Value of R&D Tax Benefits in the United States

Brandon Pecoraro, Nicholas Hoffman, Martin Lopez-Daneri, Elena C. Derby, Rachel Moore and Shannon E. Sledz

35207: More Paths or More Contrast? A Theory of Experimentation Breadth

Joshua Gans and Luca Gius

35206: The Cost of Intermediary Market Power for Distressed Borrowers

Winston Dou, Wei Wang and Wenyu Wang

35205: Tatonnement and Price Setting in General Equilibrium

Iván Werning and Guido Lorenzoni

35204: Flood Risk, Insurance, and Housing in the United States

Suvy Qin and John L. Voorheis

35203: The Geography of Lifecycle Human Capital Accumulation

Ben Sprung-Keyser and Sonya Porter

35202: Fiscal Policy and Transition Risk

Stefano Carattini, Garth Heutel, Givi Melkadze and Inès Mourelon

35201: Intertemporal Arbitrage and Optimal Operation of Pumped Hydro Energy Storage

Isabel Figuerola-Ferretti and Eduardo S. Schwartz

35200: Credibility and Precommitment in Socialist Constitutionalism

Sebastian Edwards

35199: How do Workers Learn? Theory and Evidence on the Roots of Lifecycle Human Capital Accumulation

Xiao Ma, Alejandro Nakab and Daniela Vidart

35198: The Effects of GLP-1 Use on Mental Health, Self-rated Health, Employment and Marriage

Robert Kaestner and Cuiping Schiman

35197: Global Policy Spillovers: How Environmental Policies Propagate through Product Attributes

Koichiro Ito, James Sallee, Caleb Halvorson-Fried and Andrew Smith

35196: Making Sense of Labor Market Indicators Amid Data Imperfections

Scott A. Brave, Erin E. Crust, Stefano Eusepi, Bart Hobijn and Aysegul Sahin

35195: AlphaPortfolio: Goal-Oriented Investment Management Through Deep Reinforcement Learning

Lin Cong, Ke Tang and Jingyuan Wang

35194: Data Centers and Local Economies in the Age of AI: A Shift--Share Approach

Fernando E. Alvarez, David Argente, Joyce Chow and Diana Van Patten

35193: Mortality Rates by Race and Ethnicity Among People with Disabilities

Madeline S. Helfer, Becky Staiger and Jessica Van Parys

35192: Algorithmic Credentialism

Peter Q. Blair and Rui Guo

35191: Organization Capital, Large Startups, and the Dearth of IPOs

Ruediger Fahlenbrach, Leandro Sanz and René M. Stulz

35190: The Long-Run Effects of the Affordable Care Act: Evidence from a Partially Pre-Committed Research Design Over the COVID-19 Recession and Recovery

Jeffrey Clemens, Anwita Mahajan and Joseph J. Sabia

35189: Crimes Against Campbell-Shiller

Itzhak Ben-David and Alex Chinco

35188: Deep Research on a Loop: Using AI Agents to Construct Economic Datasets

Santiago Afonso, Sebastian Galiani, Ramiro Gálvez and Raul A. Sosa

35187: Anti-Harassment Policy and the Startup Labor Market

Jun Chen, Song Ma and Feng Zhang

35186: AlphaGlass: Interpretable Characteristic-Based Portfolio Choice

Sebastian Bell, Ali Kakhbod, Martin Lettau and Abdolreza Nazemi

35185: Revealing Life Preferences Through LLMs

Omar Abdel Haq, Amitabh Chandra, Tomáš Jagelka, Erzo Luttmer and Joshua Schwartzstein

35184: Breaking the Early Bell: Lessons from the First Statewide Mandate on School Start Times

Jialu (Gloria) Dou, Rania Gihleb, Osea Giuntella and Jakub Lonsky

35183: What Does A Grade Mean? Informativeness and Strategic Manipulation of Grading Systems

Joshua Gans and Scott Kominers

35182: Growth is Getting Harder to Find, Not Ideas

Teresa Fort, Nathan Goldschlag, Jack Liang, Peter Schott and Nikolas Zolas

35181: Youth Mental Health and School Smartphone Bans: Early Evidence

Henry Saffer

35180: The Persistence of Power: How Family Origins Shape Political Representation and Policy

Eric Chyn, Katherine Cohen, Kareem Haggag and Bryan Stuart

35179: Bachelors Without Bachelor's: Gender Gaps in Education and Declining Marriage Rates

Clara Chambers, Benjamin Goldman and Joseph Winkelmann

35178: Earnings Management and Price Informativeness

Zhiguo He, Wenxi Jiang and Wei Xiong

35177: Separations Revisited: Do Layoffs or Quits Drive Lower Separation Rates in High-Quality Firms?

Caue Dobbin, Daniel Fernandez and Tom Zohar

35176: Measuring Water Misallocation in California

Will Rafey

35175: The Causal Effects of Expected Depreciations

Martha Elena Delgado Rojas, Juan Herreño, Marc Hofstetter and Mathieu Pedemonte

35174: Authority Figures and the Polarization of Gender Norms

Ali Abboud, Samuel Bazzi, Serena Canaan, Antoine Deeb and Pierre Mouganie

35173: How does Medicare Eligibility affect Choice and Utilization? Evidence from Veterans

Marion Aouad, Liam Rose and Todd Wagner

35172: Competitive Exposure and Entrepreneurial Experimentation

Joshua Gans

35171: Labor Market Effects of California’s $20 Fast-Food Minimum Wage

Arindrajit Dube

35170: Extreme Equilibria: The Benefits of Correlation

Kirill Rudov, Fedor Sandomirskiy and Leeat Yariv

35169: Opt In? Opt Out?

Alex Chan, Ayush Gupta and Yetong Xu

35168: The Postpandemic U.S. Immigration Surge: New Facts and Inflationary Implications

Anton Cheremukhin, Sewon Hur, Ronald Mau, Karel Mertens, Alexander Richter and Xiaoqing Zhou

35167: On the Negative Consequences of Low-Wage Offshoring for Innovation

Wulong Gu, Alla Lileeva and Daniel Trefler

35166: Interest Rate Caps, Competition, and Strategic Borrowing: Evidence from Kenya

Aroon Narayanan, Tavneet Suri and Prashant Bharadwaj

35165: Health Inequalities Among Danish Retirees 2004-2022

Paul Bingley, Nabanita Datta Gupta, Malene Kallestrup-Lamb and Alexander O.K. Marin

35164: How Should Central Banks Respond to Commodity Price Shocks? Optimal Monetary and Exchange Rate Frameworks for Commodity-Exposed Economies

Thomas Drechsel, Michael McLeay, Silvana Tenreyro and Enrico D. Turri

35163: How Poverty Fell

Vincent J. Armentano, Paul Niehaus and Tom Vogl

35162: Why Bans Fail: Tipping Points and Australia's Social Media Ban

Leonardo Bursztyn, Angela L. Duckworth, Rafael Jiménez-Durán, Aaron Leonard, Filip Milojević, Christopher Roth and Cass Sunstein

35161: Shaping Society's Character: The Role of Schools in Developing Social and Emotional Skills

Sule Alan

35160: Adolescent Behavior, Learning, and Knowledge Diffusion: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment

Sule Alan, Kumar Biswas, Christina S. Hauser and Shwetlena Sabarwal

35159: Data Neutrality, Data Supply, and Market Competition

Hanming Fang and Soo Jin Kim

35158: Mosaics of Predictability

Lin Cong, Guanhao Feng, Jingyu He and Yuanzhi Wang

35157: Automation, Learning, and Career Dynamics

Hassan Afrouzi, Andres Blanco, Andrés Drenik and Erik Hurst

35156: Trade and the End of Antiquity

Johannes Boehm and Thomas Chaney

35155: When Does Automating AI Research Produce Explosive Growth? Feedback Loops in Innovation Networks

Tom Davidson, Basil Halperin, Thomas Houlden and Anton Korinek

35154: Replacement and Reputation

Navin Kartik, Elliot Lipnowski and Harry Pei

35153: AI Managed Household Portfolios: A Preliminary Report

Bruce I. Carlin, Ryan Israelsen and Christopher F. Wazzan

35152: Mothers, Schools, and the Making of American Human Capital Mobility

Lukas Althoff, Harriet M. Brookes Gray and Hugo Reichardt

35151: Retrospective Versus Prospective Meritocracy

Steven Durlauf

35150: Beliefs, Attention, and Investments in Early Childhood

Flavio Cunha, Snejana Nihtianova, Jessica Rood and Anja-Lize van der Merwe

35149: Firm Pay, Amenities, and Inequality

Sydnee Caldwell, Ingrid Haegele and Jörg Heining

35148: The Labor Market as an Equilibrium Newsvendor Problem

Alexandre Mas

35147: Learning by Mail: The Impact of Correspondence Schools in Early 20th Century America

Daniela Vidart

35146: Understanding Medicaid Managed Care: The Procured Competition Model

Mark Shepard and Jacob Wallace

35145: The Annuity Puzzle Revisited: Barriers, Behavior, and Policy Paths to Lifetime Income

Hal E. Hershfield, Suzanne Shu, Jeffrey Brown, Abigail Hurwitz, Moshe Milevsky, Olivia Mitchell and Tamiko Toland

35144: Characteristics of a Sufficient Statistic to Measure City Housing Prices

Daniel Broxterman, William Larson and Anthony Yezer

35143: How Artificial Intelligence Shapes Science: Evidence from AlphaFold

Ryan R. Hill and Carolyn Stein

35142: Seeing the Goal, Missing the Truth: Human Accountability for AI Bias

Sean S. Cao, Wei Jiang and Hui Xu

35141: The Microstructure of AI Diffusion: Evidence from Firms, Business Functions, and Worker Tasks

Kathryn Bonney, Cory L. Breaux, Emin Dinlersoz, Lucia Foster, John Haltiwanger and Aditya A. Pande

35140: Who Marries Whom? The Role of Segregation by Race and Class

Benjamin Goldman, Jamie Gracie and Sonya Porter

35139: Filling the Gaps with MICE: Addressing Missing Data in Real Estate Price Indices

Miriam Steurer and Sabrina S. Spiegel

35138: Power to the Personnel? The Impacts of Managerial Discretion vs. Worker Democracy in Employee Recognition

Namrata Kala and Madeline McKelway

35137: Till the IRS Do Us Part: (Optimal) Taxation of Households

Hans Holter, Dirk Krueger and Serhiy Stepanchuk

35136: The State-Contingent Debt Premium: Evidence from French Public Bonds

Kris James Mitchener and Goncalo Pina

35135: The Value of Reliable Statistics

Nicholas Bloom, Erica Groshen, Duncan Hobbs and Michael Strain

35134: Taxes and Financial Distress: Evidence from Establishment-Level Data

Mara Faccio and Stefano Manfredonia

35133: Technology Adoption and Optimal Policy

Fernando E. Alvarez, Francisco Buera and Nicholas Trachter

35132: The Effects of School Phone Bans: National Evidence from Lockable Pouches

Hunt Allcott, E. Jason Baron, Thomas Dee, Angela L. Duckworth, Matthew Gentzkow and Brian Jacob

35131: Wind Turbine Proximity and Health: Longitudinal Evidence from U.S. Households

Niklas Rott, Douglas Almond and Osea Giuntella

35130: The Success of the Embedded State in England

Leander Heldring, Davis Kedrosky, James Robinson and Matthias Weigand

35129: Labor Market Impacts of ICE Activity in Trump 2.0

Elizabeth Cox and Chloe East

35128: Complementary Climate Policies for Supply and Demand

Geir Asheim and Bard Harstad