NBER Working Papers

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26427: MoNK: Mortgages in a New-Keynesian Model

Carlos Garriga, Finn Kydland and Roman Sustek

26426: Approximately Right?: Global v. Local Methods for Open-Economy Models with Incomplete Markets

Oliver de Groot, C. Bora Durdu and Enrique Mendoza

26425: Government Expenditure on the Public Education System

Chao Fu, Shoya Ishimaru and John Kennan

26424: Demand Analysis with Many Prices

Victor Chernozhukov, Jerry Hausman and Whitney Newey

26423: Don’t Take Their Word For It: The Misclassification of Bond Mutual Funds

Huaizhi Chen, Lauren Cohen and Umit Gurun

26422: Assessing External Validity

Hao Bo and Sebastian Galiani

26421: Effort: The Unrecognized Contributor to US Income Inequality

Rodrigo Fuentes and Edward Leamer

26420: The Effect of Changes in the Skill Premium on College Degree Attainment and the Choice of Major

Ran Abramitzky, Victor Lavy and Maayan Segev

26419: The Effects of Financial Aid Grant Offers on Postsecondary Educational Outcomes: New Experimental Evidence from the Fund for Wisconsin Scholars

Deven E. Carlson, Felix Elwert, Nicholas Hillman, Alex Schmidt and Barbara Wolfe

26418: Measuring “Dark Matter” in Asset Pricing Models

Hui Chen, Winston Dou and Leonid Kogan

26417: Quantifying Heterogeneous Returns to Genetic Selection: Evidence from Wisconsin Dairies

Jared P. Hutchins, Brent Hueth and Guilherme Rosa

26416: The Long-Run Effects of California’s Paid Family Leave Act on Women’s Careers and Childbearing: New Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design and U.S. Tax Data

Martha Bailey, Tanya Byker, Elena Patel and Shanthi Ramnath

26415: Rational Inattention when Decisions Take Time

Benjamin Hebert and Michael Woodford

26414: Working Their Way Up? US Immigrants' Changing Labor Market Assimilation in the Age of Mass Migration

William Collins and Ariell Zimran

26413: Inattentive Economies

George-Marios Angeletos and Karthik Sastry

26412: O Youth and Beauty: Children’s Looks and Children’s Cognitive Development

Daniel Hamermesh, Rachel A. Gordon and Robert Crosnoe

26411: Setting a Good Example? Examining Sibling Spillovers in Educational Achievement Using a Regression Discontinuity Design

Krzysztof Karbownik and Umut Özek

26410: The Wife’s Protector: A Quantitative Theory Linking Contraceptive Technology with the Decline in Marriage

Jeremy Greenwood, Nezih Guner and Karen Kopecky

26409: Electoral Competition with Fake News

Gene Grossman and Elhanan Helpman

26408: Intergenerational Mobility of Immigrants in the US over Two Centuries

Ran Abramitzky, Leah Boustan, Elisa Jácome and Santiago Perez

26407: The Return to Education in the Mid-20th Century: Evidence from Twins

James Feigenbaum and Hui Ren Tan

26406: Money-Back Guarantees in Individual Retirement Accounts: Are They Good Policy?

Vanya Horneff, Daniel Liebler, Raimond Maurer and Olivia Mitchell

26405: The EITC and the Extensive Margin: A Reappraisal

Henrik Kleven

26404: Rules and Commitment in Communication: an Experimental Analysis

Guillaume R. Fréchette, Alessandro Lizzeri and Jacopo Perego

26403: Spending Reductions in the Medicare Shared Savings Program: Selection or Savings?

J. Michael McWilliams, Laura A. Hatfield, Bruce E. Landon and Michael E. Chernew

26402: Household Heterogeneity and the Transmission of Foreign Shocks

Sergio de Ferra, Kurt Mitman and Federica Romei

26401: Demand Conditions and Worker Safety: Evidence from Price Shocks in Mining

Kerwin Kofi Charles, Matthew S. Johnson, Melvin Stephens and Do Lee

26400: Lending to the Unbanked: Relational Contracting with Loan Sharks

Kevin Lang, Kaiwen Leong, Huailu Li and Haibo Xu

26399: The Labor Market Effects of Mexican Repatriations: Longitudinal Evidence from the 1930s

Jongkwan Lee, Giovanni Peri and Vasil Yasenov

26398: Non-Parametric Tests of the Tragedy of the Commons

Spencer Banzhaf, Yaqin Liu, Martin Smith and Frank Asche

26397: Optimal Policy for Macro-Financial Stability

Gianluca Benigno, Huigang Chen, Christopher Otrok, Alessandro Rebucci and Eric Young

26396: Tariff Passthrough at the Border and at the Store: Evidence from US Trade Policy

Alberto Cavallo, Gita Gopinath, Brent Neiman and Jenny Tang

26395: The Unintended Effects from Halting Nuclear Power Production: Evidence from Fukushima Daiichi Accident

Matthew Neidell, Shinsuke Uchida and Marcella Veronesi

26394: Expectations-Based Loss Aversion May Help Explain Seemingly Dominated Choices in Strategy-Proof Mechanisms

Bnaya Dreyfuss, Ori Heffetz and Matthew Rabin

26393: The Impact of Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Taxes on Purchases: Evidence from Four City-Level Taxes in the U.S

John Cawley, David Frisvold and David Jones

26392: Give Me Your Tired, Your Poor, Your High-Skilled Labor: H-1B Lottery Outcomes and Entrepreneurial Success

Stephen Dimmock, Jiekun Huang and Scott Weisbenner

26391: Hysteresis from Employer Subsidies

Emmanuel Saez, Benjamin Schoefer and David Seim

26390: Cities in the Developing World

Gharad Bryan, Edward Glaeser and Nick Tsivanidis

26389: Design and Analysis of Cluster-Randomized Field Experiments in Panel Data Settings

Bharat K. Chandar, Ali Hortacsu, John List, Ian Muir and Jeffrey Wooldridge

26388: Biometric Tracking, Healthcare Provision, and Data Quality: Experimental Evidence from Tuberculosis Control

Thomas Bossuroy, Clara Delavallade and Vincent Pons

26387: Taxing Billionaires: Estate Taxes and the Geographical Location of the Ultra-Wealthy

Enrico Moretti and Daniel Wilson

26386: My Brother’s Keeper? The Impact of Targeted Educational Supports

Thomas Dee and Emily Penner

26385: The Electric Gini: Income Redistribution through Energy Prices

Arik Levinson and Emilson Silva

26384: What to Expect When It Gets Hotter: The Impacts of Prenatal Exposure to Extreme Heat on Maternal Health

Jiyoon Kim, Ajin Lee and Maya Rossin-Slater

26383: A Welfare Analysis of Occupational Licensing in U.S. States

Morris M. Kleiner and Evan J. Soltas

26382: Playing Hide and Seek: How Lenders Respond to Borrower Protection

Youssef Benzarti

26381: Recent Increases in Air Pollution: Evidence and Implications for Mortality

Karen Clay and Nicholas Muller

26380: The Drivers of Social Preferences: Evidence from a Nationwide Tipping Field Experiment

Bharat Chandar, Uri Gneezy, John List and Ian Muir

26379: How do Older Workers use Nontraditional Jobs?

Alicia Munnell, Geoffrey Sanzenbacher and Abigail N. Walters

26378: Minimum Wage in a Multi-Tier Search and Wage-Posting Model with Cross-Market Substitutions

C. Y. Kelvin Yuen and Ping Wang

26377: Defining Opportunity versus Necessity Entrepreneurship: Two Components of Business Creation

Robert Fairlie and Frank Fossen

26376: The Effect of Course Shutouts on Community College Students: Evidence from Waitlist Cutoffs

Silvia Robles, Max Gross and Robert Fairlie

26375: Measuring Substitution Patterns in Differentiated-Products Industries

Amit Gandhi and Jean-François Houde

26374: Inference for Linear Conditional Moment Inequalities

Isaiah Andrews, Jonathan Roth and Ariel Pakes

26373: Unit Values for Import and Export Price Indexes – A Proof of Concept

Don Fast and Susan Fleck

26372: Firm-level Irreversibility

Hang Bai, Xuenan Li, Chen Xue and Lu Zhang

26371: The (Heterogenous) Economic Effects of Private Equity Buyouts

Steven Davis, John Haltiwanger, Kyle Handley, Ben Lipsius, Josh Lerner and Javier Miranda

26370: An Improved Method to Predict Assignment of Stocks into Russell Indexes

Itzhak Ben-David, Francesco Franzoni and Rabih Moussawi

26369: The Banking View of Bond Risk Premia

Valentin Haddad and David Sraer

26368: Educational, Labor-market and Intergenerational Consequences of Poor Childhood Health

Krzysztof Karbownik and Anthony Wray

26367: Subsidy Targeting with Market Power

Maria Polyakova and Stephen Ryan

26366: Rule of Law and Female Entrepreneurship

Nava Ashraf, Alexia Delfino and Edward Glaeser

26365: Macroeconomic Frameworks

Alan Auerbach, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Daniel Murphy

26364: Marriage Equality Laws and Youth Suicidal Behaviors

D. Mark Anderson, Kyutaro Matsuzawa and Joseph J. Sabia

26363: What Difference Does a Diagnosis Make? Evidence from Marginal Patients

Mattan Alalouf, Sarah Miller and Laura Wherry

26362: Undue Burden Beyond Texas: An Analysis of Abortion Clinic Closures, Births, And Abortions in Wisconsin

Joanna Venator and Jason Fletcher

26361: Macroeconomics Challenges and Resilience of Emerging Market Economies

Joshua Aizenman

26360: Can Diffuse Delivery System Reforms Improve Population Health? A Study of the State Innovation Models Initiative

Partha Deb, Anjelica Gangaram and Hoda Khajavi

26359: Exploring The Role of Limited Commitment Constraints in Argentina’s "Missing Capital"

Marek Kapicka, Finn Kydland and Carlos Zarazaga

26358: History Dependence, Cohort Attachment, and Job Referrals in Networks of Close Relationships

Ayal Chen-Zion and James Rauch

26357: Poverty, Seasonal Scarcity and Exchange Asymmetries

Dietmar Fehr, Günther Fink and B. Kelsey Jack

26356: How do Opioid Prescribing Restrictions Affect Pharmaceutical Promotion? Lessons from the Mandatory Access Prescription Drug Monitoring Programs

Thuy D. Nguyen, W. David Bradford and Kosali Simon

26355: Service Imports, Workforce Composition, and Firm Performance: Evidence from Finnish Microdata

Andrea Ariu, Katariina Nilsson Hakkala, J. Jensen and Saara Tamminen

26354: Credit Smoothing

C. Hundtofte, Arna Olafsson and Michaela Pagel

26353: The Consumption Response to Trade Shocks: Evidence from the US-China Trade War

Michael Waugh

26352: Long-Term Consequences of Growing up in a Recession on Risk Preferences

Hitoshi Shigeoka

26351: A Plucking Model of Business Cycles

Stéphane Dupraz, Emi Nakamura and Jon Steinsson

26350: Household Labor Search, Spousal Insurance, and Health Care Reform

Hanming Fang and Andrew Shephard

26349: Behavioral Responses to State Income Taxation of High Earners: Evidence from California

Joshua Rauh and Ryan J. Shyu

26348: A Cross-Cohort Analysis of Human Capital Specialization and the College Gender Wage Gap

Carolyn Sloane, Erik Hurst and Dan Black

26347: Undisclosed Debt Sustainability

Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk

26346: Can Microfinance Unlock a Poverty Trap for Some Entrepreneurs?

Abhijit Banerjee, Emily Breza, Esther Duflo and Cynthia Kinnan

26345: The Gender Gap in Self-Promotion

Christine L. Exley and Judd B. Kessler

26344: Underwriter Reputation, Issuer-Underwriter Matching, and SEO Performance

Charles Calomiris, Yehuda Izhakian and Jaime F. Zender

26343: Maternal and Fetal Health Effects of Working during Pregnancy

Dhaval Dave and Muzhe Yang

26342: The Transformation and Performance of Emerging Market Economies Across the Great Divide of the Global Financial Crisis

Michael Bordo and Pierre Siklos

26341: On Frequent Batch Auctions for Stocks

Ravi Jagannathan

26340: Benchmarking Global Optimizers

Antoine Arnoud, Fatih Guvenen and Tatjana Kleineberg

26339: Poverty Alleviation Strategies Under Informality: Evidence for Latin America

Martín Caruso, Sebastian Galiani and Federico Weinschelbaum

26338: Drug Diffusion Through Peer Networks: The Influence of Industry Payments

Leila Agha and Dan Zeltzer

26337: Retirement in the Shadow (Banking)

Guillermo Ordonez and Facundo Piguillem

26336: Tax Policy and Lumpy Investment Behavior: Evidence from China's VAT Reform

Zhao Chen, Xian Jiang, Zhikuo Liu, Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato and Yi Xu

26335: The Consumption Value of College

Yifan Gong, Lance Lochner, Ralph Stinebrickner and Todd Stinebrickner

26334: Marriage, Children, and Labor Supply: Beliefs and Outcomes

Yifan Gong, Ralph Stinebrickner and Todd Stinebrickner

26333: On Latin American Populism, And Its Echoes Around the World

Sebastian Edwards

26332: The Effects of Job Characteristics on Retirement

Peter Hudomiet, Michael Hurd, Andrew Parker and Susann Rohwedder

26331: Are Small Farms Really more Productive than Large Farms?

Fernando Aragon, Diego Restuccia and Juan Pablo Rud

26330: On Fintech and Financial Inclusion

Thomas Philippon

26329: Cross-Sectional Dispersion of Risk in Trading Time

Torben Andersen, Martin Thyrsgaard and Viktor Todorov

26328: Misfortune and Mistake: The Financial Conditions and Decision-making Ability of High-cost Loan Borrowers

Leandro Carvalho, Arna Olafsson and Dan Silverman