NBER Working Papers

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23411: Policy Uncertainty In Japan

Elif Arbatli, Steven Davis, Arata Ito and Naoko Miake

23410: The Effect of Natural Disasters on Economic Activity in US Counties: A Century of Data

Leah Boustan, Matthew Kahn, Paul Rhode and Maria Lucia Yanguas

23409: The Distributional Consequences of Large Devaluations

Javier Cravino and Andrei Levchenko

23408: Male Earnings, Marriageable Men, and Nonmarital Fertility: Evidence from the Fracking Boom

Melissa S. Kearney and Riley Wilson

23407: Lessons Unlearned? Corporate Debt in Emerging Markets

Laura Alfaro, Gonzalo Asis, Anusha Chari and Ugo Panizza

23406: Unemployment Insurance and Reservation Wages: Evidence from Administrative Data

Thomas Le Barbanchon, Roland Rathelot and Alexandra Roulet

23405: Push and Pull: Disability Insurance, Regional Labor Markets, and Benefit Generosity in Canada and the United States

Kevin Milligan and Tammy Schirle

23404: Co-authorship in Economic History and Economics: Are We Any Different?

Andrew Seltzer and Daniel Hamermesh

23403: Can at Scale Drug Provision Improve the Health of the Targeted in Sub-Saharan Africa?

Adrienne Lucas and Nicholas Wilson

23402: Are Recessions Good for Staffing in Nursing Homes?

R. Tamara Konetzka, Karen B. Lasater, Edward Norton and Rachel M. Werner

23401: Exchange Rate Disconnect in General Equilibrium

Oleg Itskhoki and Dmitry Mukhin

23400: Economic Shocks and Crime: Evidence from the Brazilian Trade Liberalization

Rafael Dix-Carneiro, Rodrigo Soares and Gabriel Ulyssea

23399: Gallman Revisited: Blacksmithing and American Manufacturing, 1850-1870

Jeremy Atack and Robert Margo

23398: Digital Labor Markets and Global Talent Flows

John Horton, William Kerr and Christopher Stanton

23397: Racial Differences in American Women's Labor Market Outcomes: A Long-Run View

William Collins and Michael Q. Moody

23396: The Fall of the Labor Share and the Rise of Superstar Firms

David Autor, David Dorn, Lawrence Katz, Christina Patterson and John van Reenen

23395: African American Intergenerational Economic Mobility Since 1880

William Collins and Marianne Wanamaker

23394: Replicating Anomalies

Kewei Hou, Chen Xue and Lu Zhang

23393: Born to Lead? The Effect of Birth Order on Non-Cognitive Abilities

Sandra Black, Erik Grönqvist and Björn Öckert

23392: Lead and Juvenile Delinquency: New Evidence from Linked Birth, School and Juvenile Detention Records

Anna Aizer and Janet Currie

23391: Stimulus Effects of Investment Tax Incentives: Production versus Purchases

Christopher House, Ana-Maria Mocanu and Matthew Shapiro

23390: Evaluation of the Reggio Approach to Early Education

Pietro Biroli, Daniela Del Boca, James Heckman, Lynne Pettler Heckman, Yu Kyung. Koh, Sylvi Kuperman, Sidharth Moktan, Chiara Pronzato and Anna Ziff

23389: Macroeconomic Effects of Medicare

Juan Carlos Conesa, Daniela Costa, Parisa Kamali, Timothy Kehoe, Vegard M. Nygard, Gajendran Raveendranathan and Akshar Saxena

23388: Health Insurance and Traffic Fatalities: The Effects of Substance Use Disorder Parity Laws

Ioana Popovici, Johanna Maclean and Michael French

23387: Firm Dynamics and Immigration: The Case of High-Skilled Immigration

Michael Waugh

23386: Measuring the Welfare Effects of Residential Energy Efficiency Programs

Hunt Allcott and Michael Greenstone

23385: The Effects of Fiscal Consolidations: Theory and Evidence

Alberto Alesina, Omar Barbiero, Carlo Favero, Francesco Giavazzi and Matteo Paradisi

23384: Globalization and Executive Compensation

Wolfgang Keller and William Olney

23383: Decentralization and Efficiency of Subsidy Targeting: Evidence from Chiefs in Rural Malawi

Pia M. Basurto, Pascaline Dupas and Jonathan Robinson

23382: How Transaction Costs Obstruct Collective Action: Evidence from California’s Groundwater

Andrew Ayres, Eric Edwards and Gary Libecap

23381: The Dynamics of Gender Earnings Differentials: Evidence from Establishment Data

Erling Barth, Sari Pekkala Kerr and Claudia Olivetti

23380: How do the U.S and Canadian Social Safety Nets Compare for Women and Children?

Hilary Hoynes and Mark Stabile

23379: Dampening General Equilibrium: From Micro to Macro

George-Marios Angeletos and Chen Lian

23378: Structural Change, Fundamentals and Growth: A Framework and Case Studies

Margaret McMillan, Dani Rodrik and Claudia Sepulveda

23377: The Nexus of Monetary Policy and Shadow Banking in China

Kaiji Chen, Jue Ren and Tao Zha

23376: Parental Work Hours and Childhood Obesity: Evidence using Instrumental Variables Related to Sibling School Eligibility

Charles Courtemanche, Rusty Tchernis and Xilin Zhou

23375: On the Joint Evolution of Culture and Institutions

Alberto Bisin and Thierry Verdier

23374: A Letter and Encouragement: Does Information Increase Post-Secondary Enrollment of UI Recipients?

Andrew Barr and Sarah Turner

23373: Are Mutual Fund Managers Paid For Investment Skill?

Markus Ibert, Ron Kaniel, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh and Roine Vestman

23372: Infant Mortality and the Repeal of Federal Prohibition

David Jacks, Krishna Pendakur and Hitoshi Shigeoka

23371: Lifetime Incomes in the United States over Six Decades

Fatih Guvenen, Greg Kaplan, Jae Song and Justin Weidner

23370: Fiscal Rules and Sovereign Default

Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk

23369: Prices of High-Tech Products, Mismeasurement, and Pace of Innovation

David Byrne, Stephen Oliner and Daniel Sichel

23368: Capital Accumulation, Private Property and Rising Inequality in China, 1978-2015

Thomas Piketty, Li Yang and Gabriel Zucman

23367: Ben-Porath meets Lazear: Lifetime Skill Investment and Occupation Choice with Multiple Skills

Costas Cavounidis and Kevin Lang

23366: How Far Is Too Far? New Evidence on Abortion Clinic Closures, Access, and Abortions

Jason Lindo, Caitlin Myers, Andrea Schlosser and Scott Cunningham

23365: Risk of Life Insurers: Recent Trends and Transmission Mechanisms

Ralph Koijen and Motohiro Yogo

23364: Optimal Multistage Adjudication

Louis Kaplow

23363: Gradual Portfolio Adjustment: Implications for Global Equity Portfolios and Returns

Philippe Bacchetta and Eric van Wincoop

23362: Using Non-Linear Budget Sets to Estimate Extensive Margin Responses: Method and Evidence from the Social Security Earnings Test

Alexander Gelber, Damon Jones, Daniel W. Sacks and Jae Song

23361: Nexus Tax Laws and Economies of Density in E-Commerce: A Study of Amazon’s Fulfillment Center Network

Jean-François Houde, Peter Newberry and Katja Seim

23360: Market Power and Price Discrimination in the U.S. Market for Higher Education

Dennis Epple, Richard Romano, Sinan Sarpça, Holger Sieg and Melanie Zaber

23359: Financial Integration and Liquidity Crises

Fabio Castiglionesi, Fabio Feriozzi and Guido Lorenzoni

23358: Household Matters: Revisiting the Returns to Capital among Female Micro-entrepreneurs

Arielle Bernhardt, Erica Field, Rohini Pande and Natalia Rigol

23357: Consumption Inequality and the Frequency of Purchases

Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Dmitri Koustas

23356: All the President’s Friends: Political Access and Firm Value

Jeffrey Brown and Jiekun Huang

23355: Harnessing Policy Complementarities to Conserve Energy: Evidence from a Natural Field Experiment

John List, Robert Metcalfe, Michael Price and Florian Rundhammer

23354: Turbulence, Firm Decentralization and Growth in Bad Times

Philippe Aghion, Nicholas Bloom, Brian Lucking, Raffaella Sadun and John van Reenen

23353: Cost of Service Regulation in U.S. Health Care: Minimum Medical Loss Ratios

Steve Cicala, Ethan Lieber and Victoria Marone

23352: Satisfaction Guaranteed: When Moral Hazard meets Moral Preferences

James Andreoni

23351: Supervisors and Performance Management Systems

Anders Frederiksen, Lisa Kahn and Fabian Lange

23350: Individuals and Organizations as Sources of State Effectiveness

Michael Best, Jonas Hjort and David Szakonyi

23349: A Strategy for Evaluating the Opportunity Cost of Time Estimates from New Choice Margins

K.E. McConnell, Juha Siikamäki and V. Smith

23348: Did Inequality in Farm Sizes Lead to Suppression of Banking and Credit in the Late Nineteenth Century?

Matthew Jaremski and Price Fishback

23347: Human Capital and Shocks: Evidence on Education, Health and Nutrition

Elizabeth Frankenberg and Duncan Thomas

23346: Averting Catastrophes that Kill

Ian Martin and Robert Pindyck

23345: Liquidity Constraints in the U.S. Housing Market

Corina Boar, Denis Gorea and Virgiliu Midrigan

23344: Sharing R&D Risk in Healthcare via FDA Hedges

Adam Jørring, Andrew Lo, Tomas Philipson, Manita Singh and Richard Thakor

23343: Growing, Shrinking, and Long Run Economic Performance: Historical Perspectives on Economic Development

Stephen Broadberry and John Joseph Wallis

23342: The Effect of Public Insurance Expansions on Substance Use Disorder Treatment: Evidence from the Affordable Care Act

Johanna Maclean and Brendan Saloner

23341: Precaution Versus Mercantilism: Reserve Accumulation, Capital Controls, and the Real Exchange Rate

Woo Jin Choi and Alan Taylor

23340: The Effect of Fuel Economy Standards on Vehicle Weight Dispersion and Accident Fatalities

Antonio Bento, Kenneth Gillingham and Kevin Roth

23339: Policy Distortions and Aggregate Productivity with Endogenous Establishment-Level Productivity

José-María Da-Rocha, Marina Tavares and Diego Restuccia

23338: The Income Elasticity of Import Demand: Micro Evidence and An Application

David Hummels and Kwan Yong Lee

23337: Queens

Oeindrila Dube and S.P. Harish

23336: 35 Years of Reforms: A Panel Analysis of the Incidence of, and Employee and Employer Responses to, Social Security Contributions in the UK

Stuart Adam, David Phillips and Barra Roantree

23335: An Economic Approach to Alleviate the Crises of Confidence in Science: With an Application to the Public Goods Game

Luigi Butera and John List

23334: The Effect of Stress on Later-Life Health: Evidence from the Vietnam Draft

John Cawley, Damien de Walque and Daniel Grossman

23333: The Effect of Labor Market Information on Community College Students’ Major Choice

Rachel Baker, Eric Bettinger, Brian Jacob and Ioana Marinescu

23332: Distortions and the Structure of the World Economy

Lorenzo Caliendo, Fernando Parro and Aleh Tsyvinski

23331: Risk Management with Supply Contracts

Heitor Almeida, Kristine Hankins and Ryan Williams

23330: Tradability and the Labor-Market Impact of Immigration: Theory and Evidence from the U.S

Ariel Burstein, Gordon Hanson, Lin Tian and Jonathan Vogel

23329: How the Growing Gap in Life Expectancy May Affect Retirement Benefits and Reforms

Alan Auerbach, Kerwin K. Charles, Courtney Coile, William Gale, Dana Goldman, Ronald Lee, Charles M. Lucas, Peter Orszag, Louise M. Sheiner, Bryan Tysinger, David Weil, Justin Wolfers and Rebeca Wong

23328: Skill Requirements across Firms and Labor Markets: Evidence from Job Postings for Professionals

David Deming and Lisa Kahn

23327: Did the Reform Fix the London Fix Problem?

Takatoshi Ito and Masahiro Yamada

23326: Estimating the Gains from New Rail Transit Investment: A Machine Learning Tree Approach

Seungwoo Chin, Matthew Kahn and Hyungsik Moon

23325: Is Europe an Optimal Political Area?

Alberto Alesina, Guido Tabellini and Francesco Trebbi

23324: Offshore Profit Shifting and Aggregate Measurement: Balance of Payments, Foreign Investment, Productivity, and the Labor Share

Fatih Guvenen, Raymond J. Mataloni, Jr., Dylan G. Rassier and Kim Ruhl

23323: China's GDP Growth May be Understated

Hunter Clark, Maxim Pinkovskiy and Xavier Sala-i-Martin

23322: Population and Civil War

Daron Acemoglu, Leopoldo Fergusson and Simon Johnson

23321: Top Income Inequality in the 21st Century: Some Cautionary Notes

Fatih Guvenen and Greg Kaplan

23320: The Productivity Advantage of Serial Entrepreneurs

Kathryn Shaw and Anders Sørensen

23319: Evolution of Assessments of the Economics of Global Warming: Changes in the DICE model, 1992 – 2017

William Nordhaus

23318: Distributional Impacts of Energy Taxes

William Pizer and Steven Sexton

23317: Is Post-Crisis Bond Liquidity Lower?

Mike Anderson and René Stulz

23316: Monetary Policy and Global Banking

Falk Bräuning and Victoria Ivashina

23315: Accounting for Growth in the Age of the Internet: The Importance of Output-Saving Technical Change

Charles Hulten and Leonard Nakamura

23314: Sovereign Default Risk and Firm Heterogeneity

Cristina Arellano, Yan Bai and Luigi Bocola

23313: The Effects of E-Cigarette Minimum Legal Sale Age Laws on Youth Substance Use

Dhaval Dave, Bo Feng and Michael Pesko

23312: Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises, Revisited

Mark Aguiar, Satyajit Chatterjee, Harold Cole and Zachary Stangebye