NBER Working Papers

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27441: Optimal Lockdown in a Commuting Network

Pablo Fajgelbaum, Amit Khandelwal, Wookun Kim, Cristiano Mantovani and Edouard Schaal

27440: Endogenous Quality Investments in the U.S. Hospital Market

Craig Garthwaite, Christopher Ody and Amanda Starc

27439: Scarring Body and Mind: The Long-Term Belief-Scarring Effects of COVID-19

Julian Kozlowski, Laura Veldkamp and Venky Venkateswaran

27438: Portfolio Delegation and 401(k) Plan Participant Responses to COVID-19

David Blanchett, Michael Finke and Jonathan Reuter

27437: Parallel Inverse Aggregate Demand Curves in Discrete Choice Models

Kory Kroft, René Leal Vizcaíno, Matthew Notowidigdo and Ting Wang

27436: ‘Mechanization Takes Command’: Inanimate Power and Labor Productivity in Late Nineteenth Century American Manufacturing

Jeremy Atack, Robert Margo and Paul Rhode

27435: Barbarians at the Store? Private Equity, Products, and Consumers

Cesare Fracassi, Alessandro Previtero and Albert W. Sheen

27434: The Macroeconomics of Sticky Prices with Generalized Hazard Functions

Fernando E. Alvarez, Francesco Lippi and Aleksei Oskolkov

27433: Do Interactions with Candidates Increase Voter Support and Participation? Experimental Evidence from Italy

Enrico Cantoni and Vincent Pons

27432: Fear, Lockdown, and Diversion: Comparing Drivers of Pandemic Economic Decline 2020

Austan Goolsbee and Chad Syverson

27431: The Economic Impacts of COVID-19: Evidence from a New Public Database Built Using Private Sector Data

Raj Chetty, John Friedman, Michael Stepner and The Opportunity Insights Team

27430: Epidemics in the New Keynesian Model

Martin Eichenbaum, Sergio Rebelo and Mathias Trabandt

27429: Informality, Consumption Taxes and Redistribution

Pierre Bachas, Lucie Gadenne and Anders Jensen

27428: Revisiting the Hypothesis of High Discounts and High Unemployment

Paolo Martellini, Guido Menzio and Ludo Visschers

27427: COVID-19 and the Demand for Online Food Shopping Services: Empirical Evidence from Taiwan

Hung-Hao Chang and Chad Meyerhoefer

27426: Implications of the Covid-19 Pandemic for State Government Tax Revenues

Jeffrey Clemens and Stan Veuger

27425: Transatlantic Technologies: The Role of ICT in the Evolution of U.S. and European Productivity Growth

Robert Gordon and Hassan Sayed

27424: Local Polynomial Order in Regression Discontinuity Designs

Zhuan Pei, David S. Lee, David Card and Andrea Weber

27423: The Changing Risk and Burden of Wildfire in the US

Marshall Burke, Anne Driscoll, Jenny Xue, Sam Heft-Neal, Jennifer Burney and Michael Wara

27422: What Jobs are Being Done at Home During the Covid-19 Crisis? Evidence from Firm-Level Surveys

Alexander Bartik, Zoe B. Cullen, Edward Glaeser, Michael Luca and Christopher T. Stanton

27421: Tech Clusters

William Kerr and Frederic Robert-Nicoud

27420: A Behavioral Explanation for the Puzzling Persistence of the Aggregate Real Exchange Rate

Mario Crucini, Mototsugu Shintani and Takayuki Tsuruga

27419: Back to Business and (Re)employing Workers? Labor Market Activity During State COVID-19 Reopenings

Wei Cheng, Patrick Carlin, Joanna Carroll, Sumedha Gupta, Felipe Lozano Rojas, Laura Montenovo, Thuy D. Nguyen, Ian Schmutte, Olga Scrivner, Kosali Simon, Coady Wing and Bruce Weinberg

27418: Economic Uncertainty Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic

David Altig, Scott Baker, Jose Maria Barrero, Nicholas Bloom, Philip Bunn, Scarlet Chen, Steven Davis, Julia Leather, Brent Meyer, Emil Mihaylov, Paul Mizen, Nicholas B. Parker, Thomas Renault, Pawel Smietanka and Gregory Thwaites

27417: Misinformation During a Pandemic

Leonardo Bursztyn, Aakaash Rao, Christopher Roth and David Yanagizawa-Drott

27416: Treasury Inconvenience Yields during the COVID-19 Crisis

Zhiguo He, Stefan Nagel and Zhaogang Song

27415: Conservation Co-Benefits from Air Pollution Regulation: Evidence from Birds

Yuanning Liang, Ivan J. Rudik, Eric Zou, Alison Johnston, Amanda D. Rodewald and Catherine Kling

27414: Food, Fuel and the Domesday Economy

Juan Moreno-Cruz and M. Scott Taylor

27413: Nondogmatic Climate Policy

Niko Jaakkola and Antony Millner

27412: Betting on the House: Subjective Expectations and Market Choices

Nicolas Bottan and Ricardo Perez-Truglia

27411: Financial Vulnerability and Risks to Growth in Emerging Markets

Viral Acharya, Soumya Bhadury and Jay Surti

27410: Biases in Long-Horizon Predictive Regressions

Jacob Boudoukh, Ronen Israel and Matthew P. Richardson

27409: Salience and Taxation with Imperfect Competition

Kory Kroft, Jean-William Laliberté, René Leal-Vizcaíno and Matthew Notowidigdo

27408: Black Lives Matter Protests and Risk Avoidance: The Case of Civil Unrest During a Pandemic

Dhaval Dave, Andrew Friedson, Kyutaro Matsuzawa, Joseph J. Sabia and Samuel Safford

27407: Racial Disparity in COVID-19 Deaths: Seeking Economic Roots with Census data

John McLaren

27406: Belief Distortions and Macroeconomic Fluctuations

Francesco Bianchi, Sydney Ludvigson and Sai Ma

27405: The Effect of Price on Firm Reputation

Michael Luca and Oren Reshef

27404: From Imitation to Innovation: Where Is all that Chinese R&D Going?

Michael König, Zheng Michael Song, Kjetil Storesletten and Fabrizio Zilibotti

27403: The Economics of Sovereign Debt, Bailouts and the Eurozone Crisis

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Philippe Martin and Todd E. Messer

27402: Which Investors Matter for Equity Valuations and Expected Returns?

Ralph Koijen, Robert Richmond and Motohiro Yogo

27401: The Political Scar of Epidemics

Barry Eichengreen, Orkun Saka and Cevat Giray Aksoy

27400: Economic Crisis, General Laws, and the Mid-Nineteenth-Century Transformation of American Political Economy

Naomi R. Lamoreaux and John Joseph Wallis

27399: Managing Households' Expectations with Unconventional Policies

Francesco D’Acunto, Daniel Hoang and Michael Weber

27398: The Growth of Nations Revisited: Global Environmental Accounting from 1998 to 2018

Aniruddh Mohan, Nicholas Muller, Akshay Thyagarajan, Randall V. Martin, Melanie S. Hammer and Aaron van Donkelaar

27397: What Accounts for the Rising Share of Women in the Top 1%?

Richard Burkhauser, Nicolas Hérault, Stephen Jenkins and Roger Wilkins

27396: Predictable Financial Crises

Robin Greenwood, Samuel Hanson, Andrei Shleifer and Jakob Ahm Sørensen

27395: Aggregate Effects from Public Works: Evidence from India

Justin Cook and Manisha Shah

27394: Measuring Labor-Force Participation and the Incidence and Duration of Unemployment

Hie Joo Ahn and James Hamilton

27393: Social Distancing and Social Capital: Why U.S. Counties Respond Differently to COVID-19

Wenzhi Ding, Ross Levine, Chen Lin and Wensi Xie

27392: The Impact of COVID-19 on Student Experiences and Expectations: Evidence from a Survey

Esteban Aucejo, Jacob F. French, Maria Paola Ugalde Araya and Basit Zafar

27391: What Does and Does Not Correlate with COVID-19 Death Rates

Christopher Knittel and Bora Ozaltun

27390: Within-Job Wage Inequality: Performance Pay and Job Relatedness

Rongsheng Tang, Yang Tang and Ping Wang

27389: Dynamics of Markups, Concentration and Product Span

Elhanan Helpman and Benjamin C. Niswonger

27388: Principal Portfolios

Bryan T. Kelly, Semyon Malamud and Lasse Pedersen

27387: Coronavirus: Impact on Stock Prices and Growth Expectations

Niels Gormsen and Ralph Koijen

27386: Gains from wage Flexibility and the Zero Lower Bound

Roberto Billi and Jordi Galí

27385: Insider-Outsider Labor Markets, Hysteresis and Monetary Policy

Jordi Galí

27384: Does Policy Communication During Covid Work?

Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Michael Weber

27383: China’s Import Demand for Agricultural Products: The Impact of the Phase One Trade Agreement

Robert Feenstra and Chang Hong

27382: The Effectiveness of Life-Preserving Investments in Times of COVID-19

Jules van Binsbergen and Christian Opp

27381: Default Options and Insurance Demand

Peter John Robinson, Wouter Botzen, Howard Kunreuther and Shereen J. Chaudhry

27380: Reconsidering Returns

Samuel M. Hartzmark and David H. Solomon

27379: Enabling Entrepreneurial Choice

Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans and Scott Stern

27378: Socio-Demographic Factors Associated with Self-Protecting Behavior during the Covid-19 Pandemic

Nicholas Papageorge, Matthew V. Zahn, Michèle Belot, Eline van den Broek-Altenburg, Syngjoo Choi, Julian C. Jamison and Egon Tripodi

27377: Can Greater Access to Education Be Inequitable? New Evidence from India’s Right to Education Act

Chirantan Chatterjee, Eric Hanushek and Shreekanth Mahendiran

27376: Bank Heterogeneity and Financial Stability

Itay Goldstein, Alexandr Kopytov, Lin Shen and Haotian Xiang

27375: America, Jump-started: World War II R&D and the Takeoff of the U.S. Innovation System

Daniel Gross and Bhaven Sampat

27374: Socioeconomic Network Heterogeneity and Pandemic Policy Response

Mohammad Akbarpour, Cody Cook, Aude Marzuoli, Simon Mongey, Abhishek Nagaraj, Matteo Saccarola, Pietro Tebaldi, Shoshana Vasserman and Hanbin Yang

27373: Implications of Heterogeneous SIR Models for Analyses of COVID-19

Glenn Ellison

27372: Leaving the Enclave: Historical Evidence on Immigrant Mobility from the Industrial Removal Office

Ran Abramitzky, Leah Boustan and Dylan Connor

27371: The Micro and Macro Dynamics of Capital Flows

Felipe Saffie, Liliana Varela and Kei-Mu Yi

27370: Global Capital and Local Assets: House Prices, Quantities, and Elasticities

Caitlin S. Gorback and Benjamin Keys

27369: Incorporating Scenario Analysis into the Federal Reserve’s Policy Strategy and Communications

Michael Bordo, Andrew Levin and Mickey D. Levy

27368: How Much Should we Trust Estimates of Firm Effects and Worker Sorting?

Stéphane Bonhomme, Kerstin Holzheu, Thibaut Lamadon, Elena Manresa, Magne Mogstad and Bradley Setzler

27367: Duration-Based Stock Valuation: Reassessing Stock Market Performance and Volatility

Jules van Binsbergen

27366: Inequality, Fiscal Policy and COVID19 Restrictions in a Demand-Determined Economy

Alan Auerbach, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Daniel Murphy

27365: Global Lessons from Climate Change Legislation and Litigation

Shaikh Eskander, Sam Fankhauser and Joana Setzer

27364: Building Resilient Health Systems: Experimental Evidence from Sierra Leone and the 2014 Ebola Outbreak

Darin Christensen, Oeindrila Dube, Johannes Haushofer, Bilal Siddiqi and Maarten Voors

27363: Tax Policy and Abnormal Investment Behavior

Qiping Xu and Eric Zwick

27362: Determinants of Small Business Reopening Decisions After COVID Restrictions Were Lifted

Dylan Balla-Elliott, Zoë B. Cullen, Edward Glaeser, Michael Luca and Christopher T. Stanton

27361: To Pool or Not to Pool? Security Design in OTC Markets

Vincent Glode, Christian Opp and Ruslan Sverchkov

27360: EMEs and COVID-19: Shutting Down in a World of Informal and Tiny Firms

Laura Alfaro, Oscar Becerra and Marcela Eslava

27359: Gender Differences in COVID-19 Related Attitudes and Behavior: Evidence from a Panel Survey in Eight OECD Countries

Vincenzo Galasso, Vincent Pons, Paola Profeta, Michael Becher, Sylvain Brouard and Martial Foucault

27358: The Effect of Foreclosures on Homeowners, Tenants, and Landlords

Rebecca Diamond, Adam Guren and Rose Tan

27357: Geographic and Socioeconomic Heterogeneity in the Benefits of Reducing Air Pollution in the United States

Tatyana Deryugina, Nolan H. Miller, David Molitor and Julian Reif

27356: The Impacts of a Prototypical Home Visiting Program on Child Skills

James Heckman, Bei Liu, Mai Lu and Jin Zhou

27355: Corporate Bond Liquidity During the COVID-19 Crisis

Mahyar Kargar, Benjamin Lester, David Lindsay, Shuo Liu, Pierre-Olivier Weill and Diego Zúñiga

27354: The search theory of OTC markets

Pierre-Olivier Weill

27353: Corporate Culture as a Theory of the Firm

Gary Gorton and Alexander K. Zentefis

27352: Inflation with Covid Consumption Baskets

Alberto Cavallo

27351: Universal Basic Income: A Dynamic Assessment

Diego Daruich and Raquel Fernandez

27350: Global Trade and Margins of Productivity in Agriculture

Farid Farrokhi and Heitor Pellegrina

27349: How and When to Use the Political Cycle to Identify Advertising Effects

Sarah Moshary, Bradley T. Shapiro and Jihong Song

27348: Old Age Risks, Consumption, and Insurance

Richard Blundell, Margherita Borella, Jeanne Commault and Mariacristina De Nardi

27347: Deciphering the Macroeconomic Effects of Internal Devaluations in a Monetary Union

Javier Andrés, Oscar Arce, Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde and Samuel Hurtado

27346: Information and the Acquisition of Social Network Connections

Toman Barsbai, Victoria Licuanan, Andreas Steinmayr, Erwin Tiongson and Dean Yang

27345: The Rise of US Earnings Inequality: Does the Cycle Drive the Trend?

Jonathan Heathcote, Fabrizio Perri and Giovanni Violante

27344: COVID-19 and Remote Work: An Early Look at US Data

Erik Brynjolfsson, John Horton, Adam Ozimek, Daniel Rock, Garima Sharma and Hong-Yi TuYe

27343: Coping with Disasters: Two Centuries of International Official Lending

Sebastian Horn, Carmen Reinhart and Christoph Trebesch

27342: Exchange Rates and Asset Prices in a Global Demand System

Ralph Koijen and Motohiro Yogo